UCF
vs.
Houston
Thursday Night
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/2/14
The Houston Cougars will host Central Florida on Thursday Night in a Game that can be seen on ESPN at 7pm est. It will be the first Conference Game for both teams. 5 dimes sportsbook opened Houston as a -1.5 point favorite and as of Monday morning that number is now -3. That goes along with the public betting percentages which as of this early writing, favor Houston by about 70%.
Central Florida is 1-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri and a win over Bethune-Cookman. Houston is 2-2 with wins over Grambling and UNLV and losses to Texas San Antonio and BYU. So, not much to write home about for either of these two teams thus far with each looking to get off on the right foot with a Conference win.
These two teams have met 5 times between 2005 and last year. Four of those Games were decided by a touchdown or less with UCF winning 4 of the 5 Games including last years 19-14 home win. That Game a year ago was expected to be a barn burner with two high flying offenses. It was a close Game but anything but an offensive showdown.
The biggest difference between this years Game and last years is the absence of a super star QB. Specifically, UCF’s Blake Bortles who’s now in the NFL. The Cougars did a fantastic job containing Bortles last year yet still came up short. But that Cougars defense, which led the nation in takeaways, is still mostly intact and with Bortles gone, Houston may be the way to look in this one.
It’s only been 3 Games for UCF but their yards per point numbers resemble those of a mediocre team thus far. Their ypp of 16 offense and 13 on defense show weakness on both sides of the ball. The Cougars 13 on offense is the number we’d expect to see from a Houston team while their 15 on defense shows us this team is at least better than mediocre defensively so far. Also note Houston’s turnover margin differential of +3 suggests this unit is picking up where they left off last year in the takeaway department. UCF is -1 thus far.
With the line just -3 or less in spots, we’re basically just being asked to pick a straight up winner here. This looks to be the ideal spot for Houston to get a little revenge for last years outcome with Bortles gone. They get the home crowd in a nationally televised affair and all signs point towards Houston as being the better team this year. This selection is not based on what these teams have or have not done this year. It’s mostly based on no Bortles, home field, revenge and a defense that shut down UCF last year WITH Bortles in the lineup. Houston -3