Wisconsin
vs.
Iowa
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/22/14
The Big Ten title Game has come into focus over the last two weekends with Ohio State and Wisconsin emerging in big wins over their main competition. The Hawkeyes have other plans this weekend in Iowa City. Still, the Badgers come into this as -9.5 road favorites at 5 Dimes and betonline.
It looks like Wisconsin has figured things out since losing to Northwestern in the beginning of October, or at least Melvin Gordon has figured things out. The Badgers have won five straight Games and covered Four straight, three of them by large margins. Despite not having a passing Game, Wisconsin has used a dominant running Game and solid defense to overtake the rest of the conference.
Iowa has had its moments, but slip up too often to be considered a good team. The Hawkeyes have nice wins at Pittsburgh and a big 48-7 win over Northwestern, but then an embarrassing 51-14 loss at Minnesota and home loss to Iowa State overshadow those.
Iowa is built in the same mold as Wisconsin, although a bit weaker on every level. They try and run the ball as much as possible, but Mark Weisman (676 yards, 14 TDs) isn’t going to win Games by himself like other running backs can do. Weisman is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and Iowa as a team is averaging 4.1 yards per carry. Jack Rudock has been passable in his second season as the team’s starting quarterback, but he still has some ways to go and isn’t going to beat teams with his arm.
The Hawkeyes’ defense will have their hands full in this one as expected. Considering they gave up 291 rushing yards to Minnesota, expect another big performance from Melvin Gordon.
Gordon is coming off a record-breaking 408-yard, 4-TD performance against Nebraska last week. He’s averaging an absurd 8.6 yards per carry on the year and will likely be one of the Heisman nominees. The problem for defenses is that when Gordon leaves the field, Corey Clement is there to take over and he’s no slouch with 742 yards and 8 TDs of his own. Joel Stave attempted just 11 passes last Game and that’s kind of all they need from him, just don’t turn the ball over.
In last year’s matchup, James White ran for 132 yards and Wisconsin had 218 rushing yards as a team as they won 28-9 on the road. To have a chance, Iowa’s defense will need to come up big. But if they can stop Gordon a little bit, that puts pressure on Stave to perform.
The Badgers have covered Four straight Games and that’s where most of their trends are. They are also 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 Games following an ATS win. The Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home Games, but 5-2 ATS in their last seven Big Ten Games. The road team has covered in six of the last seven meetings between these schools, but the Badgers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 contests.
When we write up Games, each week, we try and choose matchups that people are interested in. Unfortunately, just because a Game has interest, it doesn’t necessarily make it worthy of wagering on. We’re only looking to wager on Games where we feel we have an edge. This Game doesn’t fit the bill, however, we’ll offer Our best guess.
Our numbers point towards a Wisconsin win and cover, but by just a hair. Right around the current posted line. When it’s that close, we have to give the dog some consideration. In this spot, Iowa has won 7 Games this year, albeit against weaker opposition. It’s not as if they don’t know how to win. They obliterated Northwestern, a team that BEAT Wisconsin, so it’s not as if a straight up Iowa win is an impossibility.
Iowa has two big home Games left, both against top 20 teams. It’s Games like this that can make a teams season. There’s added motivation here of course because Iowa is still alive in the Big 10 Title picture, not to mention their quest to better their Bowl Game options.
With all that’s on the line and with the Game being played at home, we’ll go ahead and back Iowa here and hope we can get +10 or better by kickoff. We also get to go against the public here as a whopping 83% of the betting action in this one has been on Wisconsin. Iowa +10 or better