SEC Football
Championship
College Football
Pick – Analysis
Florida vs. Alabama
12/5/15
Alabama must be enjoying itself right now, getting to face Florida in the SEC title Game. The Crimson Tide opened as a -17 point favorite at 5 Dimes Sportsbook, the biggest spread they have had in SEC play all season. This Game will be played at the Georgia Dome with a heavy Bama crowd expected.
Florida is 10-2 and only has one Conference loss, but the Gators are limping entering this Game. They haven’t played well in over a month and now get to face the wrecking ball that is Alabama. since handling Georgia, Florida has fallen apart with Treon Harris at quarterback. They beat Vandy 9-7, South Carolina 24-14, needed OT to beat Florida Atlantic and just got smashed this weekend against Florida State 27-2. Nothing about those Games provides faith for Gator backers here.
As for Alabama, it’s been business as usual, coming off a tough, gritty win at Auburn over the weekend. The Crimson Tide’s lone loss to Ole Miss early in the year is all but forgotten as they continue to run over every opponent.
Florida has a Top 10 run defense, but will that matter against Alabama? The Tide have rolled over everyone on their Schedule so far and running back Derrick Henry is coming off an enormous 46-carry, 271-yard performance. Henry has 1,797 yards and 22 TDs on the year and will likely be a top Heisman candidate. The Gators have a good defense, but stopping this buzz saw may be too hard. Quarterback Jake Coker hasn’t been asked to do much, having not thrown for 200 yards in Four straight.
Florida’s only chance at winning — and covering — will be if they can actually Scorebecause completely stopping Alabama isn’t really an option. The Gators moved the ball somewhat with Kelvin Taylor last week, but this offense still failed to get on the scoreboard. Down for almost the entire Game, Treon Harris went 19-for-38 for 134 yards against the Seminoles. That’s not going to be enough and there’s no reason to think he’ll be any better here. Harris is completing 53.7% of his passes on the year. Taylor could be in for a rough Game as well against one of the best rush defenses in the country. He has hit 100 yards in three straight Games, but that still hasn’t really sparked the offense much.
There’s no reason to think Alabama won’t dominate the trenches once again. This could be a similar result to last year’s title Game when Alabama won 42-13 over Missouri. The Tigers probably had a better offense than Florida does at this point as well.
Alabama has won the last Four meetings with Florida all in dominant, covering fashion — all wins by at least 19 points. Last season, the Tide won 42-21 at home led by 672 total yards compared to Florida’s 200. Basically, Florida is in trouble.
Still, the Gators have covered in Four straight following a double-digit loss. The under has hit in five straight Games for the Gators and Four straight SEC Games for the Tide. The Crimson Tide have covered in six straight against teams with winning records.
Our Pick – Extremely difficult to make a case for Florida here. Other than a fluke Game against Ole Miss, this Alabama defense simply doesn’t give up points. Likewise, other than a fluke Game, also against Ole Miss, the Gators offense simply doesn’t put points on the board.
Having the 116th ranked rushing offense and going up against the #1 defense against the run, well, that’s a recipe for a very long day for the Gators.
However, it is a Championship Game, and the Gators do field a formidable defense of their own. Our model predicts an Alabama win by just under the number, with Florida holding Bama to 3 TD’s. If the model is correct, and Bama can find the end zone just once, perhaps with a defensive TD, there’s your cover for the Gators.
Our Pick – Not the strongest play on the board, but – Florida +17.5