Texas
vs.
Oklahoma
Big 12
College Football
Championship Pick
12/1/18
It’s another Red River Showdown, but this one is for the Big 12 Championship. Oklahoma still has a shot at the College Football Playoff, while Texas is playing for a better bowl, already with three losses. The Sooners were -7.5 point favorites with an over/under of 78 as of Monday (at 5Dimes Sportsbook) for the Game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
The spread seems large for a number of reasons, the first of which is that Texas has covered the last six times these teams have played and every time that spread has been at least seven points including earlier this year. The other reason is that Oklahoma has won three of its last Four Games by Four points or less because of a non-existent defense. Texas has slowed down and only scored 48 points the last two Games, but as long as Sam Ehlinger is healthy, this group can definitely keep up.
That’s how the Longhorns won the first meeting in a 48-45 shootout that ended on a 40-yard field goal in the final seconds. There’s no doubt there will be points in this Game and the over/under will only go up throughout the week after there was 93 points in that first meeting. Ehlinger threw for 324 yards and ran for 72 of the team’s 177 rushing yards in the win and that should work again. There is some worry that Ehlinger wasn’t himself against Kansas as he threw for a couple interceptions and ran for only one yard. If his shoulder injury remains a problem, Oklahoma has the edge, but considering he played the entire way last Saturday, there’s no reason to think that will hold him back. And while the Longhorns don’t have great rushing numbers, both Keaontay Ingram and Tre Watson are putting in solid outings that will be enough combined with Ehlinger.
Oklahoma’s defense has been miserable, allowing at least 40 points in the last Four Games with one of those coming against Kansas. The only reason it’s in this spot is because of a dynamic offense that’s scoring on everyone and averaging more than 50 points per Game.
Kyler Murray has been electric all season with 12.01 yards per attempt, 37 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but also 853 rushing yards and 11 more touchdowns. He did whatever he wanted in that first Game including a 67-yard run. Texas has one of the better defenses in the conference, but that doesn’t really matter against this offense. Freshman running back Kennedy Brooks has also been excellent, averaging almost 10 yards per carry with at least 165 yards in each of the last three Games. Texas has a decent run defense allowing only 3.9 ypc, but Oklahoma still managed 222 rushing yards in that first meeting.
This Game has all the makings of another shootout simply because that’s how Oklahoma plays. With the spread being over seven points, it only makes sense that more people bet Texas. Of course, it may be worth a look to see how Ehlinger practices through the week because the offense hasn’t been great in recent Games.
The Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site Games and 13-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral-site Games and 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Longhorns have covered in the last six meetings between these schools, all of those as the underdog.
Our Pick – The same season revenge angle is certainly worth a look here, however, we’re going to play this one strictly by the numbers.
When we use full season data, Our model likes Oklahoma by a TD. So, right on the number. However, when we use data ONLY from the last 7 Games, the margin shrinks to just 2. Finally, if we use data from the last 4 Games only, the model has Texas winning outright by 5.
Lot’s of variables in this one, but we’ll take the Longhorns here knowing that the back door is always open against this Oklahoma defense. Texas +8