Virginia Tech
vs.
Florida State
Week 1
College Football
Pick
9/3/18
It’s the start of a new regime at Florida State with Willie Taggart the new head coach and he starts with a surprisingly important Game. The Seminoles open with an ACC Game against a Virginia Tech team that’s ranked only one spot lower in the AP Polls. Playing at home, the ‘Noles are -7.5 point favorites with an over/under of 57 at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
The spread is somewhat surprising, but playing at home with a new coaching staff is enough for bettors to back Florida State. All signs point to James Blackman under center as reports have Deondre Francois a little behind in terms of learning the new offense under Taggart. Blackman still has to improve his all-around Game after completing only 58.2% of his passes last year. It’s likely the Seminoles will focus on running the ball early behind an offensive line that returns Four starters to go with running back Cam Akers (1,024 yards, 7 TDs). Getting more out of the passing Game will still be important for the Seminoles and top wide out Nyqwan Murray (604 yards) should help in that aspect as long as the quarterback gets him the ball.
Virginia Tech had one of the best defenses in the country last season, allowing just 14.8 points per Game, but only five starters return with a number of guys moving onto the NFL. This group should still be strong under long-time coordinator Bud Foster, but the talent and high-paced offense of FSU could be problematic in the opener.
To keep this Game close, Josh Jackson has to improve in his sophomore season after dipping in the second half of 2017 and completing less than 60 percent of his passes. The offense turned stagnant at times and that can’t happen if the Hokies plan to win this Game. There’s enough returning around Jackson that they can improve and that starts on the line with three experienced seniors. Jackson’s mobility could be huge in this Game along with Deshawn McClease and Jalen Holston out of the backfield. Getting production from new top receivers Sean Savoy and Eric Kumah will be important, especially against a fairly new secondary in FSU.
The Seminoles lost a lot of guys, namely safety Derwin James, but there’s also tons of talent per usual and new coordinator Harlon Barnett knows what it takes to be elite after reviving Michigan State’s defense last year. If the Hokies can move the ball a little on the ground, that will at least keep the defense from going full attack mode and rushing Jackson on every play. Plus, the aggressive approach of the FSU defense could benefit Jackson after rushing for 324 yards last season.
Florida State has more talent, but Virginia Tech has been stout in Justin Fuente’s first two years in charge. VT’s biggest issue last year was beating better opponents in the ACC and that’s how important a win would be in this Game. The Hokies may be able to keep it close with Jackson at quarterback, but getting a win against Taggart in his first Game in charge won’t be easy.
Our Pick – Had this Game been played at the end of last season, we would have had Virginia Tech winning by 4. At +7.5, Tech would have been a best bet Key Release.
So, we have to determine if the off season changes to both teams are worth the 11 point swing.
Both teams have lost some key players on both sides of the ball. It’s also important to note that any time a team starts off with a new coaching staff, there are growing pains. New coaches means new schemes and often times, many mistakes initially.
Hard to pass up the points in this one. Virginia Tech +7.5