Kent State didn’t improve its win total in the first season under head coach Sean Lewis, but there were positives in the four losses by seven points or less.

That may not sound like much, but the Golden Flashes don’t have much historical success and reaching four wins in 2019 would be considered good. 

Offense Should Take Step Forward

Given that Lewis was Syracuse’s former OC, it’s the offense that should take the first leap for Kent State. Quarterback Woody Barrett can help the process after an up-and-down first year as starter. He threw just 11 touchdowns and nine picks on 6.0 yards per attempt, but also added 503 rushing yards and seven more touchdowns.

Throw in running backs Jo-El Shaw (657 yards, 7 TDs) and Will Matthews, and the ground game should have more success behind a line that returns four starters, not including right tackle Adam Gregoire, who missed 2018 with a knee injury.

It also helps Barrett that all of the top receivers are back with Mike Carrigan (597 yards, 5 TDs), Antwan Dixon (523 yards) and Isaiah McKoy (423 yards), though a bigger, deep threat needs to step up.

Defense Can’t Get Much Worse

The defense kind of fell apart last year giving up 36.7 points per game in a new attacking 3-4 scheme. A lot of that was because of a high-tempo offense that didn’t hold onto the ball, leading to tons of playing time for the defense.

The hope is that a completely new three-man front will do more, though that’s a big ask after allowing 220.3 rushing yards per contest. The good news is that there are players returning at every other level.

Inside linebacker Matt Bahr provides consistency in his sixth year of eligibility, and outside linebacker Nick Faulkner brings some excitement.

The secondary also has a few playmakers led by corner Jamal Parker and safety Keith Sherald. 

Looks Like 5 Wins Max for Kent State

If Kent State had an easier schedule, a bowl would be possible, but with trips to ASU, Auburn and Wisconsin in the non conference, that’s unlikely to happen. Even with a decent cross-division schedule that features BSU and EMU, this team would probably need eight home games to win five in the MAC.

To reach four wins overall, they’ll need to beat BGSU, Miami and BSU at home with the game at Akron being the best possible road upset. With back-to-back solid recruiting classes to go with a decent amount of returning starters, the Golden Flashes should be a better team on both sides of the ball.

However, that still leaves them as one of the worst in the conference and five wins is probably the max.  

Kent State has to face Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin all within a 1 month time frame. You can read previews for all 3 of those teams linked below in the schedule.

2019 Kent State Golden Flashes Football Schedule

Aug. 29 at Arizona State (opened +26.5)
Sept. 7 vs. Kennesaw State
Sept. 14 at Auburn
Sept. 21 vs. Bowling Green
Oct. 5 at Wisconsin
Oct. 12 at Akron
Oct. 19 at Ohio
Oct. 26 vs. Miami (OH)
Nov. 5 at Toledo
Nov. 14 vs. Buffalo
Nov. 23 vs. Ball State
Nov. 29 at Eastern Michigan

That is, the daily double, pick 3, pick 4 and pick 5. The key to winning bets like this one is to play several different tickets with singles in different races. The more horses you use, the larger your bet cost becomes and therefore finding singles is essential.

Daily Double (Manhattan Stakes, Belmont Stakes)

In the Manhattan Stakes, it is hard to look past the Chad Brown quartet of #1 Raging Bull 10-1, #3 Robert Bruce 6-1, #7 Olympico 6-1 and #8 Bricks and Mortar 7/5. They comprise 40% of the field and the winner figures to be one of them.

In the Belmont Stakes, we are having a hard time looking past the favorite, #10 Tacitus. Also considered for the win spot are #4 Tax 15-1, #6 Spinoff 15-1 and #8 Intrepid Heart 10-1.

It makes sense to single #8 Bricks and Mortar and pair him with #4 Tax, #6 Spinoff and #8 Intrepid Heart as well as playing a straight ticket of #8 Bricks and Mortar with  #10 Tacitus, but for a larger dollar amount.

Daily Double bettors might also consider playing #1 Raging Bull, #3 Robert Bruce and #7 Olympico with just #10 Tacitus in the second leg of the wager.

Pick 3 (Metropolitan Handicap, Manhattan Stakes, Belmont Stakes)

#1 Coal Front 6-1, #2 McKinzie 5-2, #3 Mitole 3-1 and #6 Promises Fulfilled 12-1 all have winning shots in the Met Mile.

This isn’t a good race to single and all four should be included. A fifth horse, #7 Firenze Fire 4-1 could be added as an insurance policy. You might consider using them with any combination of the above listed horses in the Manhattan and Belmont Stakes.

Pick 4 (Woody Stephens Stakes, Metropolitan Handicap, Manhattan Stakes, Belmont Stakes)

#1 Honest Mischief 6-1 looked like the next coming of Secretariat when breaking his maiden last out, but concedes experience to his foes and will need a sharp start from his rail post to win. He is worth using as a single on a ticket or two.

#7 Strike Silver 20-1 could improve while returning to the dirt for the first time since finishing second in last years Sanford Stakes. Don’t be surprised to see him run well under top jockey Irad Ortiz.

#11 Wendell Fong 10-1 has tactical speed and experience on his side. He’s fast enough to score the upset at a good price.

Pick 5 (Acorn Stakes, Woody Stephens Stakes, Metropolitan Handicap, Manhattan Stakes, Belmont Stakes)

#1 Serengetti Empress 5-2, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, looks very tough, but isn’t the favorite. That distinction belongs to #7 Guarana 2-1 whose lone start was a 14 length win against maidens in the slop at Keeneland. Impressive, to be sure, but it is absurd for her to be favored over a filly that just powerfully won the filly equivalent of the Derby.

You need singles in a sequence like the Pick 5 and Serengetti Empress is as good as any of them. Single her on at least one ticket. For those playing multiple tickets, you might also consider #5 Fancy Dress Party 10-1 and #8 Queen of Beas 12-1.

Here is a look at all of the entries for the Belmont Stakes.

#1 Joevia (Shanghai Bobby, Peace Process by War Front)

Trainer: Gregory Sacco

Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Owner: Michael and Jeff Fazio

Odds: 30-1

Comment: Could break sharply from the rail and find himself in front in the early going. Hard to envision him stealing away, but if the other horses let him dawdle up front then a shocking upset is not out of the realm of possibility. Worth using on deep tickets.

#2 Everfast (Take Charge Indy, Awesome Surprise by Awesome Again)

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Luis Saez

Owner: Calumet Farm

Odds: 12-1

Comment: Enjoyed a rail run en route to a second place finish at 29-1 in the Preakness. I don’t see much pace in this race and a result I don’t see much hope for this closer that likes to come from the clouds.

#3 Master Fencer (Just a Way, Sexy Zamurai by Deputy Minister)

Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Owner: Yoshizawa Katsumi

Odds: 8-1

Comment: Closed a lot of ground in the late stages of the Kentucky Derby where he finished seventh (sixth via DQ). Completely unknown commodity that could certainly win. The Japanese horsemen come to the US sales every year and buy up our best bloodstock and the differential quality in their thoroughbred and ours is little to none. He can definitely win, but his late running style is a concern.

#4 Tax (Arch, Toll by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owner: R A Hill Stable & Reeves Thoroughbred Racing

Odds: 15-1

Comment: Benefits from the pickup of jockey Irad Ortiz who is an improvement over Junior Alvarado. Also benefits from a running style that will have him on or near the lead in the early stages of this race. Threat to win.

#5 Bourbon War (Tapit, My Conquestadory by Artie Schiller)

Trainer: Mark Henig

Jockey: Mike E. Smith

Owner: Bourbon Lane Stable and Lake Star Stable

Odds: 12-1

Comment: If the chatter around the internet is any indication then this contender will take much more action than his 12-1 morning line odds indicate. He flopped in the Preakness, but was wearing blinkers for the first time in that start. They will come off here. Others are more enticing.

#6 Spinoff (Hard Spun, Zaftig by Gone West)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Owner: Wertheimer & Frere

Odds: 15-1

Comment: Has the perfect running style for this race and is fast enough to get the job done. Dangerous win contender for top connections.

#7 Sir Winston (Awesome Again, La Gran Bailadora by Afleet Alex)

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Owner: Tracy Farmer

Odds: 12-1

Comment: Finished well to be second in the Peter Pan Stakes when last seen, but might not be ready for this caliber of competition just yet. Not impossible, but will need things to go his way.

#8 Intrepid Heart (Tapit, Flaming Heart by Touch Gold)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

Owner: Robert & Lawana Lowe

Odds: 10-1

Comment: Promising contender is lightly raced, but his future Hall of Fame trainer is signaling confidence by entering him in this race. Watch the odds board on race day. If he is above 8-1 then he’s worth the risk. Otherwise, there isn’t enough value.

#9 War of Will (War Front, Visions of Clarity by Sadler’s Wells)

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Tyler Gafflione

Owner: Gary Barber

Odds: 2-1

Comment: Hollywood connected owner Gary Barber couldn’t have written a better script for this colts trip en route to Preakness glory if he tried. Everything went perfect for him that day. Most importantly, he was able to ride the rail which appeared to be the best part of the track. Would surprise nobody if he wins, but I’m fading him at such low odds.

#10 Tacitus (Tapit, Close Hatches by First Defence)

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Owner: Juddmonte Farms

Odds: 9/5

Comment: Clearly the best horse in the race. Needs to be closer to the early pace to avoid jeopardizing his chances to win. If he does that then he is the most likely winner. Ignore at your peril.

1st: Tacitus 9-5

2nd: Tax 15-1

3rd: Spinoff 15-1

Race 10, Grade 3 Gallorette Stakes for fillies and mares, three-years-old and upward

Race 11, Grade 3 Chick Lang Stakes for three-year-olds

Race 12, Grade 2 Dixie Stakes for three-year-olds and upward

Race 13, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes for three-year-olds

#1 War of Will (War Front, Visions of Clarity by Sadler’s Wells)

Trainer: Mark Casse

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Owner: Gary Barber

Odds: 4-1

Comment: Training well, but hasn’t run particularly fast to date and will be one of the betting favorites. There is better value elsewhere.

#2 Bourbon War (Tapit, My Conquestadory by Artie Schiller)

Trainer: Mark Hennig

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owner: Bourbon Lane Stable & Lake Star Stable

Odds: 12-1

Comment: Will race with blinkers on for the first time which should have him closer to the pace. The best horses seem to be coming from Florida this year and this one was last seen finishing fourth behind Maximum Security. Hard not to like this colt.

#3 Warrior’s Charge (Munnings, Battling Brook by Broken Vow)

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Owner: Ten Strike Racing & Madaket Stables LLC

Odds: 12-1

Comment: Very impressive in consecutive wire-to-wire scores at Oaklawn Park. Can be in front early or drop back and pass horses down the lane. Viable threat.

#4 Improbable (City Zip, Rare Event by A.P. Indy)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Mike Smith

Owner: Winstar Farm LLC & China Horse Club International

Odds: 5-2

Comment: Will be the favorite based largely on a so-so fourth place finish in the Kentucky Derby combined with strong form last year. We would rather side with an up and coming contender than the horse that is essentially the “default” favorite.

#5 Owendale (Into Mischief, Aspen Light by Bernardini)

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Owner: Rupp Racing

Odds: 10-1

Comment: Needs to be closer to the pace this time than he was in his Grade 3 Lexington Stakes win, but has shown he can do that. One of many with a winning chance here.

#6 Market King (Into Mischief, Divine Presence by A.P. Indy)

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas

Jockey: Jon K Court

Owner: Robert C Baker & William L Mack

Odds: 30-1

Comment: Might be able to finish fourth, but anything better than that would be absolutely shocking.

#7 Alwaysmining (Stay Thirsty, What Will Be by Anees)

Trainer: Kelly Rubley

Jockey: Daniel Centeno

Owner: Runnymede Racing LLC

Odds: 8-1

Comment:: The local hero has reeled off six consecutive wins and was very heavily favored in the last three of them. The speed figures say he can do it. Why not?

#8 Signalman (General Quarters, Trip South by Trippi)

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Owner: Tommie M Lewis, Steve Crabtree, Dean Demar

Odds: 30-1

Comment: Will be humming along late in the race and is a good candidate to take the last spot of the superfecta or maybe the trifecta.

#9 Bodexpress (Bodemeister, Pied a Terre by City Zip)

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: John Velazquez

Owner: Top Racing LLC, Global Thoroughbred & Gds

Odds: 20-1

Comment: Maiden runner probably shouldn’t have been in the Kentucky Derby. His presence here is also questionable.

#10 Everfast

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Owner: Calumet Farm

Odds: 50-1

Comment: Hard to make sense of why this colt is in the race. There are better options for your betting dollars.

#11 Laughing Fox 

Trainer: Steven Asmussen

Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.

Owner: Alex & Joann Lieblong

Odds: 20-1

Comment: Looked great last out in the Oaklawn Park Invitational where he rallied from eighth to win by a neck. Asmussen isn’t one to run in a race like this “just to be here”. This colt can win.

#12 Anothertwistafate

Trainer: Blaine Wright

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Owner: Peter Redekop

Odds: 6-1

Comment: Attracting lots of attention, but hasn’t proven he can hang with top horses yet. Maybe if he were 20-1 we might like him, but as one of the favorites this is a horse to pass on.

#13 Win Win Win

Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Jockey: Julian Pimentel

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Odds: 15-1

Comment: Didn’t produce himself in the Kentucky Derby and the connections are hoping the addition of blinkers will shake him up. He’s fast enough when he “shows up”. Use on the deepest of tickets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nobody stands out in the 2019 Preakness Stakes. If you bet the race you must demand value and that means taking a chance on one of contenders with big odds.

First: #7 Alwaysmining 8-1

Second: #2 Bourbon War 12-1

Third: #11 Laughing Fox 20-1

#1 Sweet Diane 15-1 (Will Take Charge, Inside Passage by Tiznow) will be making her first start since bringing a hefty $500,000 final bid at the Keeneland’s April Sale last month. Her new trainer, Eddie Kenneally, has enlisted top rider Jose Ortiz for this mission. She certainly looks fast enough to win on her best effort and has shown an ability to pass horses down the lane which, in a race loaded with speed, is nice to see.

#2 Off Topic 8-1 (Street Sense, Off Limits by Include) stayed on well to be third in the Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes when last seen. Certainly appreciates this distance, but might not be as talented as some of her foes. Prefer others. John Velazquez rides for trainer Todd Pletcher.

#3 Ulele 15-1 (Candy Ride, Princess Arabella by Any Given Saturday) is impeccably bred, but finished behind Off Topic two starts back and if we don’t like Off Topic then it is hard to like Ulele. There are things to like, such as her early speed and likely affinity for the distance, but for us, others rate higher. Trifecta and superfecta contender on her best effort.

#4 Cookie Dough 3-1 (Brethren, Brooke’s Valentine by Fusaichi Pegasus) is a speedy filly that has made a name for herself by cracking the heads of Florida-bred horses. Open company, however, is much tougher, but she’s excelled there too with a second place finish in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and a third place effort in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. In a race where we can make a case for almost every filly in the race to win it is hard to take a short price on this Florida-bred lass.

#5 Our Super Freak 20-1 (Mineshaft, Thatcher by Giant’s Causeway) is from the barn of Jamie Ness who is winning at an eye popping 58% clip with horses starting at Pimlico (12-7-1-1). She will relish the extra ground of today’s race and looks to be improving. It will take the race of her life to win, but if she does it then you will get paid in a big way.

#6 Always Shopping 4-1 (Awesome Again, Stopshoppingmaria by More Than Ready) has improved with every start which culminated with an impressive score in the Gazelle Stakes when last seen. She can rate behind the speed and is the most complete horse in the race. We believe she should be the favorite, but is instead the third choice on the morning line. Top pick.

#7 Brill 5-1 (Medaglia d’Oro, Hung The Moon by Malibu Moon) could finally be ready to live up to her million dollar price-tag. The Grade 1 placed filly will be making her third start after a layoff which is statistically speaking when most horses run their best race. She likes to go fast early, as do many of the horses in this race. She might be the best of the early pacesetters. Not out of the question.

#8 Point of Honor 5-2 (Curlin, Zayanna by Bernardini) is the lightly raced favorite on virtue of an impressive maiden win followed by a score in the Suncoast Stakes from Tampa Bay Downs. She flopped in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, but bettors are likely to give her another chance in a race that will set up perfectly for her running style. Certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see her win, but in a competitive race we are going to demand more value.

#9 Las Setas 15-1 (Seville, Tanca by Polish Numbers) is the local hope for owner, breeder and trainer Katherine Voss. She is by a German-bred sire (don’t see that often!) and has reeled off four consecutive wins. Today is the “acid test” and we will see if she can hang with the top fillies. Not impossible.

Selections

First: #6 Always Shopping 4-1

Second: #1 Sweet Diane 15-1

Third: #7 Brill 5-1

Neither Maximum Security nor the official race winner, Country House, will compete in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. The field is still taking shape, but below are 11 contenders that have expressed interest in running.

A Look at the 11 Horse Field

ALWAYSMINING (Stay Thirsty, What Will Be by Anees) has won his three races this year by a combined 22 lengths while collecting $195,000 in purse money. His last win, the Federico Tesio Stakes, showed he can relax behind the early pace and take off at the command of his jockey, Daniel Centeno, a veteran, but lesser known jockey. The only knock you can make on this gelding is that he hasn’t faced much in the way of competition yet. Despite that, he will be one of the top contenders for the Preakness.

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy, Imprecation by First Defence) just missed when second in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby before finishing second with a troubled trip in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. Before that, he won Golden Gate’s El Camino Real Derby in a strong wire to wire performance. He fits well with this group and will be among the top win contenders.

BODEXPRESS (Bodemeister, Pied a Terre by City Zip) might be a maiden, but he’s fast. He was one of the horses impacted by the now infamous incident at the 5/16 pole in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Gustavo Delgado was quoted in the media stating his belief that Bodexpress would have hit the board if not for that. It would be nice to see a win to his credit, but that doesn’t mean he can’t take the Preakness.

BOurBON WAR (Tapit, My Conquestadory by Artie Schiller) finishes fast, but will need a quick pace to have a chance at winning. His connections have more incentive than some of the others on the basis of his absolutely outstanding pedigree. A win in the Preakness would make him a surefire Kentucky stallion candidate.

IMPROBABLE (City Zip, Rare Event by A.P. Indy) was one of three Bob Baffert entrants to the Kentucky Derby, but the only one that will continue on to the Preakness. He picks up the most accomplished jockey in horse racing history, Mike E. Smith, who was quoted in various outlets stating his belief that this colt’s best days are in front of him. If he’s right, this colt will be among the very best in all of horse racing.

LAUGHING FOX (Union Rags, Saskawea by Stormy Atlantic) is steadily improving, but will need a quick pace to get to the wire first. His last out win in the Oaklawn Park Invitational signaled that he’s getting good at the right time of the year. Trainer Steve ASMUssen won the Preakness with Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

OWENDALE (Into Mischief, Aspen Light by Bernardini) made a run from the back of the pack to win the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes when last seen, but will need to use his previously displayed tactical speed in the Preakness. The bay colt is well rested and well bred. One of many with a true chance at winning the race.

SIGNALMAN (General Quarters, Trip South by Trippi), last year’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club winner, didn’t have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby. That might have been a blessing in disguise. Trainer Ken McPeek is notorious for running in the big races “just do it”, but this contenders looks like he truly belongs. We would like to see him closer to the pace in the Preakness. If that happens, he can hit the board. Maybe even win.

WAR OF WILL (War Front, Visions of Clarity by Sadlers Wells) has been the focus of much media attention since his involvement in the incident at the 5/16 pole of the Kentucky Derby. The connection think he might have won if it hadn’t happened. The connections of the DQed winner, Maximum Security, think he caused his own problems and as a result stole their trophy. Trainer Mark Casse says he’s recovered well and is full of himself out on the track in the mornings. Expect him to be an underlay.

WARRIOR’S CHARGE (Munnings, Battling Brook by Broken Vow) has gone wire to wire in his last two races and could be the primary early pace horse in the Preakness. That alone makes him deadly. Especially on a track like Pimlico with tight turns that favor front running horses. The speed figures say he fits. We like him.

WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick, Miss Smarty Pants by Smarty Jones) disappointed in the slop on Kentucky Derby day. He deserves another shot, but could be an underlay. Can he win this race? Yes, he can. Should you demand value? Yes you should.

But the biggest news of all is that the track is probably going to be wet which makes an already difficult endeavor, picking the winner, an even tougher challenge. There is no way to predict how horses will respond to having mud kicked in their face. Some will like it. Others will seemingly say, “Hey, this sucks, I’m packing it in!”.

As we previously discussed, the pace looks like it will be fast. #1 War of Will 20-1 will be flashing speed from the get-go in a bid to be clear of traffic. #2 Tax 20-1, #6 Vekoma 20-1 and #7 Maximum Security 10-1 will be in hot pursuit.

Right behind that group will be #5 Improbable 6-1, #8 Tacitus 10-1 and #16 Game Winner 5-1. The winner is likely one of those three. Two of them are trained by last year’s Triple Crown winning trainer Bob Baffert.

The most likely winner of the three and perhaps the best horse in the group is Tacitus. He’s got tactical speed, is royally-bred and finishes fast. He broke his maiden over a wet track and his pedigree says he will run well regardless of whether the track is fast, good, muddy or sloppy. Tacitus has the look of a “now” horse that has been campaigned specifically for the purpose of running his best race on Kentucky Derby day. Obviously, that’s what we want. He’s in the best of hands with jockey Jose Ortiz and trainer Bill Mott.

Perhaps the only one you could conceivable argue is better than Bill Mott is the trainer of the other two contenders, Bob Baffert. His charge Improbable already has a win at Churchill Downs and his pedigree is that of a mudlark. He fires home fast and as such fits the profile of the type of horse we want to play. Game Winner is the most complete horse in the race and deserves to be the favorite. Last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has done nothing wrong and will be peaking in the Kentucky Derby.

If forced to look outside of that group we would consider the versatile #14 Win Win Win 15-1 who has been training up a storm for trainer Michael Trombetta, but might be a touch too slow to hang with the aforementioned three we like. If, for some reason, the pace doesn’t develop then Vekoma stands a chance at stealing away and getting to the wire first. But, that seems very unlikely.

This article might also be of interest to you – Maximum Security a Rabbit?

Selections:

1st: #8 Tacitus 10-1

2nd: #16 Game Winner 5-1

3rd: Improbable 6-1