The Celtics had their chances to take control of this series but couldn’t get it done. Obviously, it’s extremely unlikely that they would be able to beat Golden State two straight games. Not impossible, but not likely.

If you think they can pull it off, you can back the Celtics at a price of +280 to win the championship. The current price on Golden State is -350.

As for tonight’s game, there would seem to be tremendous value with the Warriors +4. There’s a strong chance they could win it all tonight. We expect this one to be very tight down the stretch.

As you’ll see below, our model agrees.

Before we post the model’s predictions we can tell you of some sharp action on the Celtics -2 for the 1st half tonight. These plays have won at a high rate when we’ve passed them along throughout the playoffs this year. That said, it looks as though -3 is the best available now. Be careful.

Here’s the model’s predictions.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
    
  
Golden State             210.5         107           
Boston                    -4.0         112
  
Golden State             210.5         102           
Boston                    -4.0         100
  
Golden State             210.5         105           
Boston                    -4.0         105
  

If you’ve been reading our write ups and predictions from our model, you know that we have a position on the Celtics to win the series at -105. We made that wager when the series returned to Boston tied 1-1.

We obviously have our backs up against the wall with that wager, just as the Celtics do in the series. It’s hard to imagine the Celtics stealing another one on the road. Especially if the series ends up going 7 games. But we’ll see. We’ll ride it out.

Posted below we have the results of the last 8 games for each team along with the predictions from our model.

last 8 results: 
  
    6/10  Golden State            107  at  Boston                   97    UN 213.0
    6/ 8  Golden State            100  at  Boston                  116    OV 212.5
    6/ 5  Boston                   88  at  Golden State            107    UN 215.5
    6/ 2  Boston                  120  at  Golden State            108    OV 210.5
    5/26  Dallas                  110  at  Golden State            120    OV 216.5
    5/24  Golden State            109  at  Dallas                  119    OV 215.5
    5/22  Golden State            109  at  Dallas                  100    UN 218.5
    5/20  Dallas                  117  at  Golden State            126    OV 214.0
  
   ***
  
    6/10  Golden State            107  at  Boston                   97    UN 213.0
    6/ 8  Golden State            100  at  Boston                  116    OV 212.5
    6/ 5  Boston                   88  at  Golden State            107    UN 215.5
    6/ 2  Boston                  120  at  Golden State            108    OV 210.5
    5/29  Boston                  100  at  Miami                    96    UN 197.5
    5/27  Miami                   111  at  Boston                  103    OV 201.0
    5/25  Boston                   93  at  Miami                    80    UN 203.5
    5/23  Miami                    82  at  Boston                  102    UN 207.5

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
  
Boston                   212.0         109           
Golden State              -3.5         110
  
Boston                   212.0          92           
Golden State              -3.5         108
  
Boston                   212.0         103           
Golden State              -3.5         106

In our write up for game 3, we made a play on the Celtics to win the series at -105. Turned out to be a good move as the series price is now Celtics -225 and +190 on the Warriors. We like our position.

Many who follow the NBA closely predicted that the Warriors would win one of these two games in Boston. We’re not so sure though. The Celtics have an opportunity tonight to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

The most likely path to the title for the Celtics would see them win at home tonight, lose game 5 at Golden State and then return home next Thursday to win it all. Of course, we’d be perfectly fine with them winning tonight and then winning the title on the road, but that scenario is extremely unlikely.

Below are the results from our model and as you can see, they differ a bit from our game 3 runs, specifically the prediction using data from only the last 7 games, which is the most accurate during the playoffs.

It clearly shows the Celtics to be the better team and we’d concur!

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
  
  
  
Golden State             213.0         107           
Boston                    -3.5         112
  
Golden State             213.0         108           
Boston                    -3.5         107
  
Golden State             213.0         101           
Boston                    -3.5         110

No official plays for us as we’ll be riding out our series play. However, we can pass along a sharp play we are privy to on the game to go UNDER in the 1st half. That play was made at the number 109. Currently 108.5 is the best you can do.

Good Luck!

After the Celtics stole game 1, Golden State came back as expected and won easily in game 2. Now it’s the Warriors turn to try and steal one on the road, which they’ll need to do in order to win another title.

At this point in the playoffs there’s certainly no statistical advantage for a handicapper to key in on. This is the NBA equivalent of the Super Bowl. The lines are tight. In other words, you’re not going to find a “soft line”.

It really comes down to a bettors feel for these teams after watching them throughout the playoffs. Where we sit, we think this is the Celtics year. They solidified that by winning game 7 on the road in Miami and stealing a game in Golden State.

Don’t be surprised if the Celtics head back to California next week with a chance to win it all on the road.

Here’s are the results of the last 8 games for each team.

last 8 results: 
  
    6/ 5  Boston                   88  at  Golden State            107    UN 215.5
    6/ 2  Boston                  120  at  Golden State            108    OV 210.5
    5/29  Boston                  100  at  Miami                    96    UN 197.5
    5/27  Miami                   111  at  Boston                  103    OV 201.0
    5/25  Boston                   93  at  Miami                    80    UN 203.5
    5/23  Miami                    82  at  Boston                  102    UN 207.5
    5/21  Miami                   109  at  Boston                  103    OV 207.5
    5/19  Boston                  127  at  Miami                   102    OV 207.5
  
   ***
  
    6/ 5  Boston                   88  at  Golden State            107    UN 215.5
    6/ 2  Boston                  120  at  Golden State            108    OV 210.5
    5/26  Dallas                  110  at  Golden State            120    OV 216.5
    5/24  Golden State            109  at  Dallas                  119    OV 215.5
    5/22  Golden State            109  at  Dallas                  100    UN 218.5
    5/20  Dallas                  117  at  Golden State            126    OV 214.0
    5/18  Dallas                   87  at  Golden State            112    UN 214.5
    5/13  Memphis                  96  at  Golden State            110    UN 218.5

Lastly, here are the predictions from our model. As you can see, there’s really no edge to speak of as the model has it close regardless of which prediction we look at.

Perhaps the only potential play when using the model would be on the under 212.5. That’s based on the prediction using data from only the last 7 games which would be the strongest prediction of the 3.

That said, the way these teams can sink 3’s when they are hot, we’ll pass on the under play.

We do think however that a play on the Celtics to win the series is worth an investment. The should be favored having gained the home court edge but we see a couple of shops with the Celtics at -105.

We’ll bite. Celtics -105 to win the series.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
  
  
Golden State             212.5         107           
Boston                    -3.5         112
  
Golden State             212.5         109           
Boston                    -3.5         104
  
Golden State             212.5         102           
Boston                    -3.5         105

In game 1 at Golden State, the Warriors are favored by -3.5 with a total of 212.5. Those odds are courtesy of betonline.

The Warriors are favored to win the series with a price of -155 while the price on the Celtics is +135.

The Warriors will have the coveted home court edge in the series. Which of course means if the Celtics are going to win this series, they’re going to have to win at least one game at Golden State.

In fact, if you’re going to predict a Celtics win, 6 games is the most likely scenario. It’s extremely unlikely that the Celtics could win in 7 as that would mean winning two consecutive game 7’s on the road.

But stealing a game at Golden State is very doable. In fact in their two games with each other this season, each of these teams won in the others building.

Giving the Celtics even more confidence is the fact that they have won six of its last seven games against the Warriors going back to 2019!

Here are a few trends worth considering…..

The Celtics are 20-5-1 ATS their last 26 on the road

The Celtics are 15-6-1 their last 21 games

The Over is 11-5 the last 16 times the Celtics were a dog

The Over is 10-4 in the Warriors last 14 NBA finals games

The Under is 19-7 the last 26 head to head meetings

The Road team is 11-5-2 ATS the last 18 head to head

Here is the way our model sees game 1, using 3 different sets of data using different time frames.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
   
  
Boston                   210.5         109           
Golden State              -3.5         110
  
Boston                   210.5         106           
Golden State              -3.5          99
  
Boston                   210.5         111           
Golden State              -3.5         104

As you can see, it’s an across the board sweep using our model for game 1 with the Celtics winning straight up in two of the predictions and losing by just 1 point in the other.

We’re going to make the following plays:

Celtics to win the series +135 (1 unit)

Celtics to win in exactly 6 games +440 (1/4 unit)

Celtics +3.5 game 1 (1 unit)

Celtics/Warriors OVER 212 game 1 (1/4 unit)

Honestly we didn’t think we’d see this game tonight. We have felt all along that the Celtics were the better team and that they’d put the Heat away at home in game 6.

Not being able to end the series at home puts the Celtics in jeopardy here tonight. We already know game 7’s offer a huge edge to the home team. Home teams win game 7 78.5% of the time!!!

You also have to add in the psychological impact. Boston had this series served up on a silver platter in game 6. But they simply couldn’t get it done. Back on a plane, down to Miami with a historical 21.5% chance in game 7. It doesn’t bode well for the Celtics.

We are aware of some sharp action on the Celtics tonight. Take that for what it’s worth. Ultimately, it means very little. This is a one shot deal.

head-to-head history (playoffs this year):

5/27/2022 Miami 111 + 8.5 at Boston 103
5/25/2022 Boston 93 – 1.5 at Miami 80
5/23/2022 Miami 82 + 6.5 at Boston 102
5/21/2022 Miami 109 + 6.5 at Boston 103
5/19/2022 Boston 127 + 3.5 at Miami 102
5/17/2022 Boston 107 + 2.0 at Miami 118

Our model won’t be of much help tonight. For the playoffs, the most accurate prediction from our model is the one that uses only data from the last 7 games. The season to date model run useless as the playoffs are a separate season all together.

The run using just data from the last 4 games isn’t much help either as it really isn’t enough data, though that one favors the Celtics in a very low scoring game.

As you can see below, the model run using the last 7 games is right on the number as well as the opening total of 198.5, which has since been bet down to 195.5.

We’re passing tonight on the side and total. Enjoy the game!

Model Predictions 

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
    
  
Boston                    -2.5         107           
Miami                    197.5         108
  
Boston                    -2.5          89           
Miami                    197.5          83
  
Boston                    -2.5         100           
Miami                    197.5          98
  
  

In our write up for game 5, we correctly predicted that the Celtics would win. We went on to predict that the Celtics would then return home and win game 6, ending the series. Our prediction still stands.

The Celtics are clearly the better team here. We’d expect nothing less than their best game of the series tonight. We all know how difficult it will be for Boston of they have to return to Miami for a 7th game. We simply don’t seer that happening.

Tonight the Celtics are 8 point favorites which is the biggest spread in this series. It’s worth noting however that all 3 of the Celtics wins came by double digits. In fact, one win was by 25, another by 20 and then game 5, on the road, by 13.

ATS trends would seem to favor the Heat here as they are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings with the Celtics and the road team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams.

But trends tend to even out over time and we think those two trends mentioned above start to even out tonight. We think the Celtics win this one with an exclamation point setting up a very exciting and much anticipated final series with the Golden State Warriors.

Celtics -8.5

It’s somewhat of a surprise that the series is tied at 2 games apiece when you consider that the Celtics have won the majority of the quarters played thus far. In fact, if not for a couple of quarters where the Heat outscored the Celtics by 20+, this series likely would have been over.

So what we now have is a best of 3 series in which the Heat have the home court advantage.  That obviously makes this game huge as everyone realizes the home team generally has a huge edge in a game 7 in the NBA.

We look for the Celtics to win tonight and then end the series in game 6 on Friday night in Boston.

Here’s a look at our model’s predictions for tonight’s game.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
  
  
  
Boston                    -1.5         107           
Miami                    203.5         108
  
Boston                    -1.5         110           
Miami                    203.5          95
  
Boston                    -1.5         105           
Miami                    203.5         104

The Heat came into Boston on Saturday night as 6 point underdogs and stole game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in the series and gained the upper hand. It’s actually quite a feat when you consider that there have been 12 quarters of basketball played in this series and the Heat have only won two of those quarters.

Both of the Celtics losses can be traced to one bad quarter in each of those games. In game 1 Boston lost the 3rd quarter by 25 points and in game 3 they lost the 1st quarter by 21.

Most would agree that the Celtics are the better team here. Yet here they sit, down 1-2 going into game 4.

Safe to say that tonight is a must win as it’s extremely unlikely that the Celtics would bounce back from a 3-1 deficit. Rarely would be advise laying -260 on a money line but we’d consider it tonight. We just don’t see the Celtics losing this one.

The Heat are 13-5-1 ATS their last 18 road games.

The Celtics are 12-5-1 ATS their last 18 games overall.

Head to head, the road team is 7-2 ATS while the underdog is 37-17 ATS the last 54 meetings.

Jere’s a look at the predictions from our model for tonight’s game.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
    
  
Miami                    207.5         105           
Boston                    -6.5         111
  
Miami                    207.5         115           
Boston                    -6.5         119
  
Miami                    207.5         103           
Boston                    -6.5         111

The Mavs are favored by -3 with a total of 217.5. The money line is anywhere from -265 to -300.

We’ll list the prediction from our model at the very bottom of this page.

head-to-head history (playoffs):   
  
 5/20/2022  Dallas                  117  + 6.5  at Golden State            126
 5/18/2022  Dallas                   87  + 5.0  at Golden State            112
 5/ 3/2007  Dallas                   86  - 3.0  at Golden State            111
 5/ 1/2007  Golden State            112  + 9.5  at Dallas                  118
 4/29/2007  Dallas                   99  - 4.0  at Golden State            103
 4/27/2007  Dallas                   91  - 4.0  at Golden State            109
 4/25/2007  Golden State             99  + 9.5  at Dallas                  112
 4/22/2007  Golden State             97  +10.0  at Dallas                   85
  
   average outcome:
     Golden State           108.6  Dallas                  99.4
     margin =  -9.25
  
   time-weighted average outcome:
     Golden State           118.6  Dallas                 101.9
     margin = -16.70
  
   average result when the home team is Dallas                 
     Golden State           102.7  Dallas                 105.0
     margin =   2.33
  
   average result when the home team is Golden State           
     Dallas                  96.0  Golden State           112.2
     margin =  16.20
  
    58.54 % of games went Over
    58.97 % went Over at Dallas                 
  
   average total points per game = 208.00
   time-weighted average total   = 220.50
  
   the home team covered  75.00 % of the time
   the road team covered  25.00 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential =  7.31
  
   the favorite  covered  37.50 % of the time
   the underdog  covered  62.50 % of the time
   Ave ATS differential = -7.19
  
   the favorite won SU    50.00 % of the time
  
   Golden State            covered  87.50 % of the time
   Dallas                  covered  12.50 % of the time
  
   Dallas                  covered  33.33 % of the time at home
   Dallas                  covered  33.33 % of the time as home favorites

last 8 results: 
  
    5/20  Dallas                  117  at  Golden State            126    OV 214.0
    5/18  Dallas                   87  at  Golden State            112    UN 214.5
    5/15  Dallas                  123  at  Phoenix                  90    OV 205.0
    5/12  Phoenix                  86  at  Dallas                  113    UN 212.0
    5/10  Dallas                   80  at  Phoenix                 110    UN 213.0
    5/ 8  Phoenix                 101  at  Dallas                  111    UN 214.5
    5/ 6  Phoenix                  94  at  Dallas                  103    UN 218.0
    5/ 4  Dallas                  109  at  Phoenix                 129    OV 216.0
  
   ***
  
    5/20  Dallas                  117  at  Golden State            126    OV 214.0
    5/18  Dallas                   87  at  Golden State            112    UN 214.5
    5/13  Memphis                  96  at  Golden State            110    UN 218.5
    5/11  Golden State             95  at  Memphis                 134    OV 218.5
    5/ 9  Memphis                  98  at  Golden State            101    UN 224.5
    5/ 7  Memphis                 112  at  Golden State            142    OV 225.5
    5/ 3  Golden State            101  at  Memphis                 106    UN 227.5
    5/ 1  Golden State            117  at  Memphis                 116    OV 220.5

ATS records since 1995, playoffs only 
  
   Golden State             all:   85-  64   0.5705
   Golden State            road:   40-  30   0.5714
                  as a road dog:   17-  11   0.6071
  
   Dallas                   all:   90-  83   0.5202
   Dallas                  home:   38-  40   0.4872
                  as a home fav:   29-  29   0.5000

Model Predictions

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
    
  
Golden State             218.5         109           
Dallas                    -2.0         109
  
Golden State             218.5         118           
Dallas                    -2.0         106
  
Golden State             218.5         109           
Dallas                    -2.0         107