Warriors at Celtics Game 3 Pick ATS NBA Finals 6-8

celtics vs. warriors predictions nba finals
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The NBA finals move to Boston for games 3 and 4 this week, with tip off for game 3 set for 9 pm est. on Wednesday, June 8th. The Celtics are -3.5 home favorites with a total of 212.5.

After the Celtics stole game 1, Golden State came back as expected and won easily in game 2. Now it’s the Warriors turn to try and steal one on the road, which they’ll need to do in order to win another title.

At this point in the playoffs there’s certainly no statistical advantage for a handicapper to key in on. This is the NBA equivalent of the Super Bowl. The lines are tight. In other words, you’re not going to find a “soft line”.

It really comes down to a bettors feel for these teams after watching them throughout the playoffs. Where we sit, we think this is the Celtics year. They solidified that by winning game 7 on the road in Miami and stealing a game in Golden State.

Don’t be surprised if the Celtics head back to California next week with a chance to win it all on the road.

Here’s are the results of the last 8 games for each team.

last 8 results: 
    6/ 5  Boston                   88  at  Golden State            107    UN 215.5
    6/ 2  Boston                  120  at  Golden State            108    OV 210.5
    5/29  Boston                  100  at  Miami                    96    UN 197.5
    5/27  Miami                   111  at  Boston                  103    OV 201.0
    5/25  Boston                   93  at  Miami                    80    UN 203.5
    5/23  Miami                    82  at  Boston                  102    UN 207.5
    5/21  Miami                   109  at  Boston                  103    OV 207.5
    5/19  Boston                  127  at  Miami                   102    OV 207.5
    6/ 5  Boston                   88  at  Golden State            107    UN 215.5
    6/ 2  Boston                  120  at  Golden State            108    OV 210.5
    5/26  Dallas                  110  at  Golden State            120    OV 216.5
    5/24  Golden State            109  at  Dallas                  119    OV 215.5
    5/22  Golden State            109  at  Dallas                  100    UN 218.5
    5/20  Dallas                  117  at  Golden State            126    OV 214.0
    5/18  Dallas                   87  at  Golden State            112    UN 214.5
    5/13  Memphis                  96  at  Golden State            110    UN 218.5

Lastly, here are the predictions from our model. As you can see, there’s really no edge to speak of as the model has it close regardless of which prediction we look at.

Perhaps the only potential play when using the model would be on the under 212.5. That’s based on the prediction using data from only the last 7 games which would be the strongest prediction of the 3.

That said, the way these teams can sink 3’s when they are hot, we’ll pass on the under play.

We do think however that a play on the Celtics to win the series is worth an investment. The should be favored having gained the home court edge but we see a couple of shops with the Celtics at -105.

We’ll bite. Celtics -105 to win the series.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
Golden State             212.5         107           
Boston                    -3.5         112
Golden State             212.5         109           
Boston                    -3.5         104
Golden State             212.5         102           
Boston                    -3.5         105
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