The NBA finals move to Boston for games 3 and 4 this week, with tip off for game 3 set for 9 pm est. on Wednesday, June 8th. The Celtics are -3.5 home favorites with a total of 212.5.
After the Celtics stole game 1, Golden State came back as expected and won easily in game 2. Now it’s the Warriors turn to try and steal one on the road, which they’ll need to do in order to win another title.
At this point in the playoffs there’s certainly no statistical advantage for a handicapper to key in on. This is the NBA equivalent of the Super Bowl. The lines are tight. In other words, you’re not going to find a “soft line”.
It really comes down to a bettors feel for these teams after watching them throughout the playoffs. Where we sit, we think this is the Celtics year. They solidified that by winning game 7 on the road in Miami and stealing a game in Golden State.
Don’t be surprised if the Celtics head back to California next week with a chance to win it all on the road.
Here’s are the results of the last 8 games for each team.
last 8 results:
6/ 5 Boston 88 at Golden State 107 UN 215.5
6/ 2 Boston 120 at Golden State 108 OV 210.5
5/29 Boston 100 at Miami 96 UN 197.5
5/27 Miami 111 at Boston 103 OV 201.0
5/25 Boston 93 at Miami 80 UN 203.5
5/23 Miami 82 at Boston 102 UN 207.5
5/21 Miami 109 at Boston 103 OV 207.5
5/19 Boston 127 at Miami 102 OV 207.5
***
6/ 5 Boston 88 at Golden State 107 UN 215.5
6/ 2 Boston 120 at Golden State 108 OV 210.5
5/26 Dallas 110 at Golden State 120 OV 216.5
5/24 Golden State 109 at Dallas 119 OV 215.5
5/22 Golden State 109 at Dallas 100 UN 218.5
5/20 Dallas 117 at Golden State 126 OV 214.0
5/18 Dallas 87 at Golden State 112 UN 214.5
5/13 Memphis 96 at Golden State 110 UN 218.5
Lastly, here are the predictions from our model. As you can see, there’s really no edge to speak of as the model has it close regardless of which prediction we look at.
Perhaps the only potential play when using the model would be on the under 212.5. That’s based on the prediction using data from only the last 7 games which would be the strongest prediction of the 3.
That said, the way these teams can sink 3’s when they are hot, we’ll pass on the under play.
We do think however that a play on the Celtics to win the series is worth an investment. The should be favored having gained the home court edge but we see a couple of shops with the Celtics at -105.
We’ll bite. Celtics -105 to win the series.
1st score using full season data 2nd score using last 4 games data 3rd score using last 7 games data Golden State 212.5 107 Boston -3.5 112 Golden State 212.5 109 Boston -3.5 104 Golden State 212.5 102 Boston -3.5 105