Plenty of big games on tap this week. This is the time of year where the cream is supposed to rise to the top. Yet some of those teams fell flat on their faces last week. Dallas comes to mind and quite honestly we expected more from the Bills defense. Meanwhile, teams like the Bengals and 49ers delivered!

Jaguars at Jets – The Jags are everyone’s darlings right now but we’re not buying in. The Cowboys collapsed last week in a game they were leading 21-7 at the half. The Jags really haven’t beaten a good team otherwise and we include the Ravens in that mix. It was only a couple of weeks ago that we saw the Lions destroy this team 40-14. Jets pk

Giants at Vikings – When it comes down to it, neither of these teams is anything special. In fact statistically this game is a toss up. It just so happens that the Vikings are 10-0 in one possession games this year! But they clinched the division last week while the Giants are in must win mode. Teams that HAVE to win often times don’t. But in this case, we’ll gladly take the points in what figures to be a game decided late. Giants +4.5

Saints at Browns – Chubb questionable. Not much interest in this one. Points figure to be hard to come by here. In which case, the Saints become attractive at +3 or better. Weak call.

Lions at Panthers – Both teams very much still alive which makes this essentially an early playoff game. Our model has the Lions by 10+ which makes this line a bargain. Gotta go with the hot hand. Lions -2.5 -115

Bengals at Patriots – The yards per play line favors the Pats by 4 and our model has them winning by 1. But try and find a Pats win over a quality opponent. You wont. The Bengals ARE a quality opponent. We mentioned at the top of the page the cream rising to the top. We think the Bengals are the cream. Bengals -3

Bills at Bears – Temps are forecasted to be in the single digits for this one. Could be a low scoring game. If so, laying a big number could be risky. But if the Bills are to be taken seriously as we head towards the playoffs, they need to go into Chicago and turn in a dominate performance over a 3-11 opponent. We think they’ll do just that. Also a viable teaser option at -1.5. Bills -8.5

Texans at Titans – Let’s see. The Texans lost to the Cowboys by 4 and then took the Chiefs to OT in consecutive weeks. Now they get a Titans team that quite frankly isn’t very good and will likely be without their starting QB as Tannehill is doubtful. The UNDER may be worth a peek here. Texans +4.5

Seahawks at Chiefs – The Seahawks are still alive at 7-7 however they have dropped 4 of their last 5 games with their lone win coming against the Rams. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. But the Chiefs have just 3 wins by more than 10 points all year. Seahawks +10.5

Falcons at Ravens – Not much value in playing the Falcons with a rookie QB against the Ravens defense. We like the under here and that would be the case regardless of the QB’s for both teams. Lamar Jackson still questionable. UNDER 37.5

Commanders at 49ers – We mentioned the cream rising to the top and the 49ers are one of the teams we were referring to. They rank #3 in the NFL in yards per play differential and using yards per point to rank the defense they are #1 with a number of 19.1. Also using yards per point to rank, the Commanders offense is 29th in the NFL. The 49ers should dominate here. As for Purdy, you could plug a lot of QB’s into this 49ers offense and get the same results. Purdy can get the job done and then some. 49ers -7

Eagles at Cowboys – Latest word out of Philly is that Jalen Huts may play. Either way, it takes a team with talent up and down the lineup to be 13-1 in the NFL as the Eagles are. No reason they can’t win on the road in Dallas or at worst, keep it extra close as the Cowboys try and bounce back from an epic collapse last week. Eagles +5

Riders at Steelers – I don’t know how you go against the Steelers here. The 50th anniversary of the immaculate reception. Festivities planned.  A ceremony planned to retire Franco Harris’ number. Then Franco Harris passes away a couple of days before. On Christmas Eve no less. Steelers -2.5

Packers at Dolphins – The Dolphins really got the short end of the stick as far as scheduling goes having just played 3 straight road games. Two of those on the West coast where they stayed over and one up in frozen Buffalo in a game they almost won. Now they’re back home against a Packers team that’s suddenly in the mix. Go figure. But the Packers still aren’t very good. They can’t score. Miami can. And they will. Enough to win and cover the small spot. Dolphins -3.5

Broncos at Rams – A good game to fall asleep to on the couch after Christmas dinner. Does anyone care? Broncos -2.5

Bucs at Cardinals – Bucs don’t deserve to be favored by a TD over anyone. 3rd string QB Trace McSorely gets the start for the Cards. Imagine if he beats Brady? Could happen. Cardinals +8

Chargers at Colts – Nick Foles gets the start for the Colts. How do you come back mentally from being on the wrong end of the biggest comeback in NFL history? Oh, and that was preceded by giving up 33 4th quarter points to the Cowboys! Chargers -4

49ers at Seahawks – Too early to call Purdy the 2nd coming of Joe Montana. However, we loved the kid when he was at Iowa State and he did beat a very good Tampa defense last week. There’s obviously more to San Fran than the QB though as their defense may be the best in the NFL. Teams have won titles with no QB. Think Trent Dilfer. This is a game the 49ers win (and cover) if they are to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender. The road to the Super Bowl goes thru Philly and if you can’t beat the Seahawks on the road you’re sure as hell not beating Philly in January. 49ers -3 -120.

Ravens at Browns – It’s still not known if Lamar Jackson will play. Either way, not much separates these two. A case can certainly be made for the Browns at home especially if Jackson doesn’t play. But we’ll play this one under the total as neither team has been producing offensively. UNDER 38

Colts at Vikings – Our model has the Vikings winning this one comfortably. Yet the yards per play line here is only Minnesota -2. That said, the Colts also own the 2nd worst offense in the NFL using yards per point to rank. Can’t trust them. Vikings can move them ball and are playoff bound. They bounce back from Lions loss here. Vikings -4

Miami at Buffalo – The last game of the Saturday triple header and it’s a good one. Maybe. The Dolphins have been a big disappointment falling flat the past two weeks. When you think of the Bills, you think Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. But the Bills have the 2nd best defense in the NFL using yards per point to rank. We don’t see the Bills losing to the Dolphins twice in a year where they likely end up in the Super Bowl. The Bills are a GREAT option for your teasers or money line parlays this week! Bills -7 (better option teasers).

Giants at Redskins – Huge NFC East clash which is now the Sunday night game. These two played to a 20-20 tie a couple of weeks ago. See no reason for this game to be any different. Washington’s offensive yards per point number is 17 which ranks 26th in the NFL. Not a team you want to lay points with. Lastly, expect the Giants to bounce back from getting blown off the field last week against Philly in what was their worst game and most lopsided defeat of the season. Giants +5

Falcons at Saints – Hard to believe but both teams still alive for the playoffs as a result of playing in the very weak NFC South. Falcons will give rookie Desmond Ridder his first NFL start. This game has last minute field goal written all over it. Falcons +4.5

Lions at Jets – Both of these teams have a path to the playoffs. It’s essentially win the rest of your games and you’re in and in both cases the schedule cooperates. That makes this game pretty damn close to a playoff game. The health of Mike White will be key here. Zach Wilson was pegged the back up and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him in there. Only one team has a defense in this matchup and that’s the Jets. In pick em affair with playoff atmosphere we’ll take the Jets and their solid defense to keep those playoff hopes alive. Jets pk

Chiefs at Texans – Once gain we’ll remind you to be careful with these big favs. There’s no locks in the NFL and laying 14 points isn’t something you want to do with regularity. Our model has the Chiefs by 10 but the UNDER works better here. UNDER 49

Eagles at Bears – Another reason we’ll remind you to tread carefully down the stretch is because lines get inflated. Teams that are playoff bound or teams needing to win to get in don’t always win. Likewise, 3 win teams like the Bears don’t quit. These are professionals. Proud players. Expect a fight. Our model has the Bears covering this one but we’ll pass.

Steelers at Panthers – The Steelers are playing out their season while the Panthers have a path to the playoffs if they win out and the schedule isn’t too difficult. Pickett is questionable for the Steelers. Panthers -3

Cowboys at Jaguars – Perhaps some added line value here due to the Cowboys lackluster performance last week against the Texans combined with the Jags win over the Titans. The Cowboys are clearly superior here and we expect them to win handily. Cowboys -4

Cardinals at Broncos – Both teams done. Under is the way to go in Broncos games. UNDER 37.5

Titans at Chargers – Both of these teams had a chance to show their worthiness  last week and only one delivered. The Chargers kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over Miami. The Titans will make the playoffs, but they don’t belong. They can’t beat a team with a winning record. Chargers have a winning record. We’ll back the Chargers -3 here but the better play might be UNDER 46.5

Bengals at Bucs – Using yards per point to rank, the Bucs have the 2nd worst offense in the NFL. I heard a stat on the radio today that the 2014 Lovie Smith coached Bucs team that went 2-14 had better offensive numbers than this years team. That’s remarkable. Bengals -3.5

Patriots at Raiders – Just like last week we have the Patriots in a pick em game yet our model likes them by 10 points. The Patriots are very much alive still. After this they get the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills. The Dolphins are looking less formidable and there’s a chance the last regular season game may not mean anything for Buffalo. A win here could set up a huge game with the Bengals on Christmas Eve. Patriots +1

Rams at Packers – What a way to end the week on a low note. No one cares about this dud of a game. We’ll back the Rams here. Wouldn’t want to lay any points with this Packers offense. Rams +7

Jets at Vikings – We won’t go as far as to call the Vikings a paper tiger but they keep squeaking by. Our numbers here have this game anywhere from a toss up to the Jets winning outright. The Yards Per Play line for this one is the Jets by 6. Jets +3

Broncos at Ravens – Ravens would be a good choice to use in teasers this week. We’re never a fan of laying over a TD in an NFL game but that’s the only way to look here. Broncos offense remains pathetic. Speaking of which, we’ll play this game under the total. UNDER 40

Steelers at Falcons – Good game between two mediocre teams. Just about every game from here forward is a playoff game. Until teams are eliminated. The Falcons are very much alive in the weak NFC South (tied for 1st with Bucs). Steelers are mathematically alive but have virtually no chance. Slightest of edges here to the Falcons who own the better offense. Falcons PK

Titans at Eagles – Good one here between two playoff teams. Using our model with full season data the Eagles come up as an 8 point winner. However, when we run this game using data from just the last 7 games it’s a narrow 18-17 win for the Eagles. Current form is key. Worth noting that the Titans have beaten some pretty bad teams this year. But other than getting blown out by Buffalo, their losses to good teams were close. Titans +5

Jaguars at Lions – In toss up game we prefer the team that generally has no problem finding the end zone. Our numbers agree and have the Lions by double digits. Lions PK

Commanders at Giants – Just like the old days. Giants and the then Redskins late season meetings with playoffs on the line. Teams seem to be going in opposite directions with Washington starting 1-4 but winning 6 of last 7 while the Giants started 6-1 and have dropped 3 of 4. This one should be tight making the Giants a viable teaser option at +8 capturing the key numbers in the process.

Browns vs. Texans – Our numbers like the Browns to cover WITHOUT Watson. So it really comes down to how much rust the QB has. Pretty much everyone beats the Texans by more than the current line of -8 so see no reason the Browns won’t follow suit even with a Rusty Watson. Another good teaser option at -2. Browns -8

Packers at Bears – A couple of teams just playing out the season. Our model has this as a coin flip so we’ll back the home dog here. Just not for real money! Bears +3.5

Seahawks vs. Rams – Seattle in battle with 49ers for 1st in the NFC West while the Rams are toast. So many injuries for the Rams including Stafford and Kupp. Once again Seattle a viable teaser option at -1. Seahawks -7

Dolphins at 49ers – Good one here but the Dolphins could be without two starters from the offensive line. That’s trouble against this 49ers defense. Speaking of defense, the Dolphins don’t have one. 49ers -4

Chargers at Raiders – The Chargers season is on life support but they are sill in the hunt. A win here sets up a big prime time meaningful showdown with the Dolphins next Sunday night. We have the game a toss up so once again we have a very viable teaser option with the Chargers +8.5 in what figures to be a tight one with their season on the line.

Chiefs at Bengals – Bengals seem to have the Chiefs number. Since a 0-2 start the Bengals have won 7 of their last 9. This one has all the makings of a playoff game. Perhaps a look ahead? You’re likely tired of hearing this by now but…..the Bengals are worth considering for your teasers at +8.5. We also think they can pull the upset. Bengals +2.5

Colts at Cowboys – Surprised they kept this one for the Sunday nighter. But, I guess it is “America’s Team”. The Cowboys should dominate this one. Colts have no offense. Cowboys one of the best D’s. Cowboys -10

Saints at Bucs – Huge NFC South game between two teams with losing records that aren’t very good. But the division is up for grabs. Rather than getting involved with a side here we’ll look to the total as points figure to be at a premium in this one. UNDER 41

This is a great way to see the current form of the teams. The vast majority of methods used to make a line on a football game involve using stats from the entire season. However, often times, what happened in week 1 or week 4 is irrelevant come week 12 or week 14. Running the model with stats from different time frames solves this problem.

You’ll notice some predictions using full season data differ from the predictions using only the last 7 games.

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data

Baltimore                 -4.0          25           
Jacksonville              43.5          17
  
Baltimore                 -4.0          17           
Jacksonville              43.5          15
  
Baltimore                 -4.0          23           
Jacksonville              43.5          14
  
  
  
Denver                    -2.0          13           
Carolina                  36.5          16
  
Denver                    -2.0          11           
Carolina                  36.5          18
  
Denver                    -2.0          13           
Carolina                  36.5          18
  
  
  
Atlanta                   42.5          16           
Washington                -4.5          26
  
Atlanta                   42.5          10           
Washington                -4.5          31
  
Atlanta                   42.5          14           
Washington                -4.5          24
  
  
  
Tampa Bay                 -3.0          17           
Cleveland                 42.5          23
  
Tampa Bay                 -3.0          16           
Cleveland                 42.5          28
  
Tampa Bay                 -3.0          17           
Cleveland                 42.5          28
  
  
  
Cincinnati                -1.0          21           
Tennessee                 42.5          19
  
Cincinnati                -1.0          15           
Tennessee                 42.5          32
  
Cincinnati                -1.0          18           
Tennessee                 42.5          21
  
  
  
Houston                   46.0          12           
Miami                    -12.0          32
  
Houston                   46.0          17           
Miami                    -12.0          34
  
Houston                   46.0          15           
Miami                    -12.0          28
  
  
  
Chicago                   41.0          14           
NY Jets                   -4.5          25
  
Chicago                   41.0          13           
NY Jets                   -4.5          27
  
Chicago                   41.0          15           
NY Jets                   -4.5          27
  
  
  
Las Vegas                 47.5          22           
Seattle                   -3.5          29
  
Las Vegas                 47.5          15           
Seattle                   -3.5          26
  
Las Vegas                 47.5          24           
Seattle                   -3.5          31
  
  
  
LA Chargers               -3.5          25           
Arizona                   47.5          26
  
LA Chargers               -3.5          30           
Arizona                   47.5          18
  
LA Chargers               -3.5          26           
Arizona                   47.5          27
  
  
  
LA Rams                   44.0          16           
Kansas City              -14.5          30
  
LA Rams                   44.0          11           
Kansas City              -14.5          32
  
LA Rams                   44.0          14           
Kansas City              -14.5          33
  
  
  
New Orleans               42.0          17           
San Francisco             -8.0          24
  
New Orleans               42.0          11           
San Francisco             -8.0          24
  
New Orleans               42.0          23           
San Francisco             -8.0          26
  
  
  
Green Bay                 46.5          16           
Philadelphia              -7.0          22
  
Green Bay                 46.5          25           
Philadelphia              -7.0          17
  
Green Bay                 46.5          18           
Philadelphia              -7.0          22
  
  
  
Pittsburgh                40.0          16           
Indianapolis              -2.5          16
  
Pittsburgh                40.0          18           
Indianapolis              -2.5          19
  
Pittsburgh                40.0          15           
Indianapolis              -2.5          17

WEEK 11

67. Philadelphia -6.5 Indianapolis (5 Stars)
I already released this on twitter earlier this week. The Colts beat a bad team but now they really need coaches that they don’t have, and there will be no hiding that offensive line from the Eagles. The Eagles know the Colts are going to try to run all day, and they brought in 2 quality free agents this week to shore that up after the Commanders exposed them. I already think the Eagles will outrush the Colts, although both will be productive. The Eagles may not throw for a lot of yards but – when they do – HUGE chunks. I see big plays, probably by AJ Brown. The nail in the coffin will be turnovers, of which I expect at least 2. They will also win the pressure battle, obviously. The Eagles blew last week but they will rebound in this one, no doubt. It’ll be big.
Eagles 34, Colts 22

68. Minnesota +1.5 Dallas (4.5 Stars)
This game is really even. Keep in mind, Dak has been a .500 player for the last year while Cousins is a winner! I checked and it still says the Vikings are at home, and home field has been doing pretty well lately. These are two teams that are about 5th in the entire league and it will be tight, but I’m taking home field. I don’t know what Dallas bettors are taking – probably just fandom. You like that? I also had good instincts on this one, posting it to tweetville on Monday. The computer validates it completely.
Vikings 24, Cowboys 21

69. Chicago +3 Atlanta (4 Stars)
I see massive rushing yards for both teams in this one. But after watching Mariotta’s disaster last week, I just have no confidence in the Falcons to win games and overall, the defense is the 2nd worst in the league! Meanwhile, Justin Fields is on an absolute tear and he can get whatever yards he wants, with Montgomery getting the rest. So things stack up pretty evenly but I’m riding Fields over Mariotta and not losing sleep tonight.
Bears 24, Falcons 23

70. LA Chargers +5 KC (3 Stars)
I have the Chiefs ranked 7th, whereas the Chargers are something like 7th from the bottom. So on surface this line seems pretty reasonable. But I have this more as a +3 point game. Then, throw in the return of Williams AND Kenan Allen for the first time and you may have a recipe for an upset. There’s a lot of data not to like – for example, the running game – so I’m going to play this conservatively here but this could be a tough win for the Chiefs…or even a loss.
Chargers 23, Chiefs 26

71. Denver -2.5 Las Vegas (3 Stars)
Denver is among the best defenses in the league, particularly vs the pass. Their offense – however, is the worst. But the Raiders say “Hold Our Beer” – THEY have the worst DEFENSE! So you have a top defense against a worst defense in the same game, which points you to the Broncos. I do see them having a decent day in the air with far more chunk plays. And this is a passing league, after all. The computer says the Bronco ypp advantage is 2nd best of the weekend, behind the Eagles but ahead of the Bills and Bengals. So cringe but….
Broncos 27, Raiders 21

72. Pittsburgh +3.5 Cincinnati (2 Stars)
I like this line, I think it is about right. But now – I’m going to throw in TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick playing together for the first time in months. How much is THAT worth on the line? I think this is going to make it one heck of a game. But the Bengals are also surging and have looked very good lately, so I’m going to temper this one and play it as Pittsburgh +1.5. Should be a fun one!
Steelers 22, Bengals 23

Seahawks at Bucs – There’s a good chance Tom Brady and the Bucs offense improves significantly down the stretch as that unit gets more in sync. But we can’t guess when that will be. Based on results so far the wrong team is favored here. Seahawks +2.5

Jaguars at Chiefs – Some of our numbers favor the Jags plus the points here, but we just can’t. If the Colts and Broncos can hang 34 and 31 points on the board against the Jags, two of the worst offenses in the NFL, imagine what the Chefs can do? Chiefs -9.

Texans at Giants – The Giants are 6-2 and probably not as good as their record suggests. The Texans are 1-6 and likely not as bad as their record suggests. Of the many ways we have of making a line on an NFL game, most are right around the current number of -4.5. However, our model is heating up now and disagrees. It has the Giants by 13. We’ll ride the model here. Giants -4.5

Saints at Steelers – Short week for Saints having played Monday, looking pathetic in the process. Neither team going anywhere this year. When a team (the Saints) does a good job preventing opponents from gaining yards it should show up on the scoreboard. But the Saints rank dead last in defensive yards per point and 29th in points allowed. Our model has this game A toss up so the Steelers +7.5 in a teaser may be a viable option.

Lions at Bears – More NFL mediocrity on display here. Running our model with data from the entire season thus far has this game a toss up. However when we start to drop games from the beginning of the year out of the equation, the Bears margins increase. Based on current form we’ll lay the short price with Chicago. Bears -2.5 -115

Browns at Dolphins – The Browns are trying to hold on a few more weeks as they await Deshaun Watson to take them to the promised land. But the Dolphins are 6-3 and in the playoff hunt. More importantly they are 6-0 when Tua starts. Pick the straight up winner of an NFL game and you have a good chance to also cover the number. The straight up winner here is the Dolphins, so we’ll lay it. Miami -3.5

Vikings at Bills – As of Saturday it’s looking more and more like Josh Allen will play. The line at this writing is -6.5. With Allen, we’ll lay the spot and look for the Bills to get back in the win column after last weeks upset. Bills -6.5

Broncos at Titans – Using yards per point to rank, the Broncos have the worst offense in the NFL. Also using yards per point to rank, the Titans defense ranks 3rd. A long day for the Broncos? It’s a small spot at -2.5. This one belongs to the Titans. Titans -2.5.

Colts at Raiders – Two bad teams in desperate need of a win. Gotta take any points available which in this case is +4.5. Colts +4.5

Cardinals at Rams – Revenge not as strong of a motivator in the NFL as it is in college. However. this may be a spot where it works. Cards we’re embarrassed last year in this building in the playoffs. Especially Kyler Murray who as of this writing is questionable to play. If he plays, we’ll back the cards. Cardinals +3

Cowboys at Packers – The Packers offense continues to struggle. Here they face one of the better defenses in the league. The Cowboys are likely the right side in this one but it could be tight. The total is the better way to go as our model has this a 17-14 game with the Cowboys on top. Dallas/Green Bay UNDER 44.5

Chargers at 49ers – The yards per play line for this game is San Fran -13.5. Our model has the 49ers by 7 to 9. We’re not crazy about laying a TD or more in NFL games. But the 49ers would be a good candidate to use in a teaser in this spot.

Commanders at Eagles  – A big spot to cover for the Eagles (-11) under the Monday night lights. But then, the Commanders might not score! Two plays for us here. Eagles -11 and UNDER 44

So we decided to post the predictions from our model. There are two predictions below. One using data from the entire season and the other using data from only the last 4 games.

Each week the model gets more accurate. It can help you handicap sides, totals, teams totals and more.

If interested in receiving for the rest of the season along with the college predictions, at a discounted price, shoot an email to bettorsworld@gmail.com

College scores for next week are ready!

Good Luck this week!

 1st score using full season data
 2nd score using last 4 games data
 3rd score using last 7 games data
  
   
  
Baltimore                 -1.5          24           
Tampa Bay                 43.5          15
  
Baltimore                 -1.5          23           
Tampa Bay                 43.5          10
  
  
  
Denver                    39.5          12   NEUTRAL 
Jacksonville              -4.0          16
  
Denver                    39.5          12   NEUTRAL 
Jacksonville              -4.0          11
  
  
  
Chicago                   42.5           9           
Dallas                   -10.0          19
  
Chicago                   42.5          11           
Dallas                   -10.0          18
  
  
  
Las Vegas                 -2.0          30           
New Orleans               47.5          30
  
Las Vegas                 -2.0          45           
New Orleans               47.5          39
  
  
  
Carolina                  40.5          17           
Atlanta                   -6.0          24
  
Carolina                  40.5          11           
Atlanta                   -6.0          24
  
  
  
Pittsburgh                43.0          14           
Philadelphia             -10.0          22
  
Pittsburgh                43.0          10           
Philadelphia             -10.0          22
  
  
  
Miami                     -3.0          34           
Detroit                   52.0          22
  
Miami                     -3.0          23           
Detroit                   52.0          19
  
  
  
Arizona                   47.5          19           
Minnesota                 -3.5          26
  
Arizona                   47.5          21           
Minnesota                 -3.5          28
  
  
  
New England               -1.5          16           
NY Jets                   41.5          24
  
New England               -1.5          10           
NY Jets                   41.5          24
  
  
  
Tennessee                 -4.0          22           
Houston                   41.0          15
  
Tennessee                 -4.0          19           
Houston                   41.0          16
  
  
  
NY Giants                 46.5          30           
Seattle                   -3.0          18
  
NY Giants                 46.5          35           
Seattle                   -3.0          19
  
  
  
Washington                41.5          15           
Indianapolis              -4.0          17
  
Washington                41.5          12           
Indianapolis              -4.0          15
  
  
  
San Francisco             -2.0          14           
LA Rams                   40.5          19
  
San Francisco             -2.0          19           
LA Rams                   40.5          19
  
  
  
Green Bay                 47.5           9           
Buffalo                  -11.5          30
  
Green Bay                 47.5           8           
Buffalo                  -11.5          38
  
  
  
Cincinnati                -3.0          30           
Cleveland                 47.5          19
  
Cincinnati                -3.0          34           
Cleveland                 47.5          21

Giants at Jags – Most of our numbers have this game dead even. Our model has a 3 point game. However, one method of making a line is using yards per play. The Jags have a big edge there favoring them by more than a TD. Jaguars -3

Colts at Titans – Another game where our numbers are all over the place. Some favor one side. Others favor the other. Once again we’ll go with the yards per play line which favors the Colts. Besides, our hunch is that the Colts and Matt Ryan have finally woken up offensively. Colts +2.5

Falcons at Bengals – Falcons are playing some good football. We use several different handicapping methods to get a number on a game and they all say this line should be less the 6.5, including our model. Falcons +6.5

Browns at Ravens – Our numbers have Baltimore by -6.5 to 8 so right around the current line with a strong lean to the Ravens. However our model has this game as one of the largest margins of the weekend with the Ravens cruising to an easy double digit win. Lay it! Ravens -6.5.

Bucs at Panthers – with the Christian McCaffrey trade, the firing of head coach Matt Rhule and all that’s going on in Carolina, we have to steer clear of this one. The numbers say the line is too high but that’s because all of the recent happenings are factored into the current line. PASS

Packers at Commanders – We warned everyone last week that these Packers were overvalued because of who they used to be. One would think that Rodgers could have a break out game at any moment. But the numbers suggest this game is a toss up placing the value with the home dog. Commanders +4.5

Jets at Broncos – Who owns the least efficient offense in the NFL? Right the Broncos. But they do have a defense. Probably why the under has been a hot play all week. We’ll tag along. Under 37

Texans at Raiders – Not much interest in this one. Model says Raiders by 10 but not interested in laying points here. Texans defense not to shabby. Texans +7

Chiefs at 49ers – We were high on the 49ers. But then last week happened. They certainly didn’t look like the legit Super Bowl contender we thought they were. The addition of Christian McCaffrey should give the 49ers a boost. Both of these teams are in off a loss. We’ll make a play on Mahomes and the Chiefs offense here which should be the best unit on the field. Chiefs -1

Seahawks at Chargers – Another game between mediocre teams with very little appeal. Our model has the Chargers by 9. Chargers -4.5

Steelers at Dolphins – Speaking of lack of appeal. Tua Tagovailoa is set to return so all eyes will be on the Dolphin QB to see how he responds. He’ll face rookie Kenny Pickett who also just cleared concussion protocol. If Tua is back to his old self Miami should take this. But the cover is another story. Number seems too high. Steelers +7.5.

Bears at Patriots – The Bears offense is one of the worst in the league and they’ll face a pretty good Patriots defense here. The model says the Pats take this by about 10 points in a low scoring affair. Sounds about right. The under may be the stronger of the two plays. Patriots -8 and Under 40.5.

Bucs at Steelers – Bucs are a popular teaser pick this week and why not. You can bring them down to -2 and pick up the key #’s of 3 and 7 along the way. They should win, obviously. It’s Kenny Pickett vs. Tom Brady. Or, actually, it’s Pickett and the 30th ranked yards per point offense vs. the Bucs and their 5th ranked ypp defense. Bucs -8

Bengals at Saints – Saints have received some sharp action this week off last weeks win over Seattle. But we’re not going to bite. In a game where we essentially just need to pick a winner, we’ll take the team with the better QB as well as the 7th best yards per point defense to beat the team whose defense ranks 31st out of 32 teams (ypp). Bengals -2

Jaguars at Colts – One would think Matt Ryan would be able to add some spark to this anemic Colts offense at some point. But the Jags have the Colts number (13-1) and the numbers suggest the wrong team is favored. Jags a viable teaser option at +8. 4th best in the NFL in points allowed. Jags +2

Patriots at Browns – Pats sent a message last week by shutting out what was the highest scoring team in the NFL, the Lions. Browns similar in that their offense can move it but the defense lacks. Our numbers have NE by 3. Patriots +2.5

Jets at Packers – Jets a hot play this week by some sharp handicappers. We agree. This line is inflated based on who the Packers WERE, not who they ARE. The GB offense ranks 27th in the NFL using yards per point to rank. To date, not the type of offense you want to be laying a TD+ with. (Also note Rodgers thumb injury) Jets +7.5

Ravens at Giants – How bout these Giants?! 4-1 and in contention in what looks like a very tough NFC East. Both of these teams are sound defensively but it’s on the offensive side of the ball that there’s a big gap between these two. Ravens -5.5

Vikings at Dolphins – Can’t get involved with the Dolphins starting a rookie QB against the solid defense of the Vikings. Vikings -3

49ers at Falcons – Falcons are a surprise thus far however the 49ers are a legit Super Bowl contender. They are #2 in the NFL in yards per play offensively and #1 in yards per play given up defensively. This spot is reasonable. 49ers -5

Panthers at Rams – The Rams have already played Dallas, Buffalo and and San Fran, 3 of the best in the NFL this year. Hence, their numbers don’t look so hot. Yet even against Atlanta they only scored 20. Laying double digits with this Rams team is risky. Yes, big trouble in Carolina, Rhule gone, but we’ll take the big spot here. Panthers +10

Cardinals at Seahawks – Some sharp bettors we respect grabbed Seattle early in the week at +3. Probably because the Cards yards per play differential of -1 ranks 30th of 32 NFL teams, suggesting they have no business being favored on the road. But those bettors are sharp for a reason. They grabbed +3. There’s a big difference between +3 and +2.5 in the NFL. At +2.5, more of a lean. Seattle +2.5

Bills at Chiefs – What a game! Chiefs are vulnerable on defense. They gave up 60 points the past two weeks. Their defense ranks 27th in the NFL using yards per point. The offense, which ranks #1 using the same stat can overcome that weakness most weeks. Maybe not this week though. The Bills defense ranks 2nd and we know what they can do offensively. Plus the Bills have a score to settle. Bills -2.5

Cowboys at Eagles – The NFL has outdone themselves with the Chiefs/Bills followed by Dallas and Philly. Four of the best teams, back to back. The Cowboys defense looks to be the real deal and Cooper Rush has Cowboys fans wondering if maybe Dak Prescott should stay on the bench. Not a bad problem to have. Cowboys +6.5

Broncos at Chargers – This game is a letdown after that Sunday afternoon, Sunday night double dip featuring the leagues best. Broncos can’t score but their defense is stout. We’ll go under the total here. Under 46