Welcome to the 2024-2025 Black Cat NFL Picks
PLAYS WILL START IN NOVEMBER WEEK 10
2006: 58%
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
2009: 49%
2010: 60%
2011: 53%
2012: 43%
2013: 52%
2014: 45%
2015: 60% Hilton Contest Winner w/ 65%
2016: 45%
2017: 48%
2018: 55%
2019: 47%
2020: 49% (57% dogs)
2021: 50% (54% dogs)
2022: 50%
2023: 55% (63% favs, 62% 2nd half overall)
2024: Not good
2025: Not active
2026 Wildcard: 5-1
>> 2026 PLAYOFFS: DIVISIONAL <<<
Game 1: Denver +1 Buffalo
Buffalo did not have success running the ball last week. A key for me is that Denver is equally stiff against the run, and that made it very hard for the Bills to win last weekend. Denver is just a slightly better version of Jacksonville. Their defense is a bit better – best against the pass in the NFL and Bills secondary is on life-support – plus, I trust their Qb and defense more in the 4th quarter (they have been money down the stretch themselves). And that should be enough for them to come off a bye and win this game. But if you can get +1 on this knowing it is likely to be another situation where Allen is pressing to take the lead on a final drive, why not.
Pick: Denver +1 (4 Units)
Game 2: Seattle -7.5 SF
The achilles heal of Darnold is teams that can get pressure on him, and that is not San Francisco. In which case, this offense could roll, their defense is very tough and this could be a rout. But I don’t love the idea of laying 7.5 on a divisional opponent even if the metrics warrant that and more. The Seahawks offense is not going to disappear the way the Eagles often do!
Pick: No official pick (or Seattle -7.5 1 unit if you like)
Game 3: New England -3 Houston
These teams are mirror images of one another, really a blueprint for success in the AFC year when you throw in Denver too. To me, it comes down to two things. (1) I don’t expect Nico Collins to play because of that concussion, which really limits Houston. Curiously, the corner covering him may face the exact same problem, Christian Gonzalez. If somehow it breaks that Collins plays and Gonzalez doesn’t, that’s an issue but I think the reverse is more likely. (2) I just like Drake Maye a lot more than CJ Stroud. I’ll take the home field and chance a FG push. It won’t surprise me if this ends up feeling a lot like the Chargers game last week, though, instead of a go-to-the-wire. If Houston serves up turnovers like they did vs. the Steelers, they will lose by 30 points.
Pick: NE -3 (4 Units)
Game 4: Rams -3.5 Chicago
The biggest concern here is that the Rams have been giving up points like a pez dispenser in recent weeks. But I think Chicago – who starts off notoriously slow – won’t be coming back in this one. The Rams have too much of an edge in the passing game on both sides of the ball in my view. Maybe they can get some help from the weather in Chicago to keep this one interesting? I have a bit less confidence here laying 4 points for a road warrior.
Pick: Rams -3.5 (2 Units)
>>> 2026 PLAYOFFS: Wild Card <<<<
Game 1: Carolina +10.5 Rams *** WIN ***
I have always been a value guy. This is a crazy line! No question the Rams are among the best teams in the tournament and Carolina is the worst. But first, this 10.5 point line at home is something. Generally, if you are horrible and playing the 9-0 whoevers, you can expect a +7 at home in the NFL. To cap this off more – Carolina BEAT the Rams! Sometimes dominant teams just match up poorly against certain squads, and this might be the case here. Maybe Carolina has 0 chance to win – and it is fair to say “0 chance to win = 10.5 points”, but I think there is a good chance this game is not settled by 2 tds.
Pick: Carolina +10.5
Game 2: Bears +1.5 Packers *** WIN ***
I like the Bears – last time they played, this squad was frothing at the mouth. They were physical and relentless and they knocked out Love and got the win. The Packers are a beaten up squad with a lot of issues and I’m banking on the Bears, who I know will be giving 110% in this one and we’ll see how that shakes out.
Pick: Bears +1.5
Game 3: Buffalo -1 Jacksonville (low confidence pick would have won)
I think this leans Buffalo with a lot of checkmarks slightly in their favor. But it is going to be very close and as far as betting, this isn’t very interesting to me. Maybe I might go with Buffalo if they start slow as they are a good comeback prospect. I find it hard to believe Buffalo is exiting in round 1 this year.
Pick: No official pick
Game 4: San Francisco +5.5 Philadelphia *** WIN ***
The Eagles offense continues to sputter and don’t forget the 49ers lit teams up with 10 TDs in 2 games before sputtering themselves against a good defense last week. This looks like a lot of points for a game we can expect to be very tight and go to the wire.
Pick: SF +5.5
Game 5: New England -3.5 Chargers *** PARLAY WIN ***
I don’t take favorites lightly in the playoffs but how can you not like this one? The Patriots Qb looks as dialed in as anyone in the league and their defense can shutdown the leaky Chargers. I think this could be very lopsided and the Chargers may look very flummoxed. I like the under too.
Pick: New England -3.5 & Under 45.5
Game 6: Pittsburgh +3 Houston LOSS
It is Monday night football in Pittsburgh, and does it mean anything that Pittsburgh hasn’t lost on Monday night in 35 years across 23 games? We know the Steelers limped to this spot unspectacularly, but they are right where they want to be and no question this is a major failure to lose this game. Houston brings a top defense and an offense that has gotten the job done against some good opponents. The Steelers generally look like crap, but they show flashes on offense and defense of what you think they should always look like and they come into this game pretty fully stocked. This is another line that really appeals to me so I will take the points and even think the Steelers will manage to win.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3
2006: 58%
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
2009: 49%
2010: 60%
2011: 53%
2012: 43%
2013: 52%
2014: 45%
2015: 60% Hilton Contest Winner w/ 65%
2016: 45%
2017: 48%
2018: 55%
2019: 47%
2020: 49% (57% dogs)
2021: 50% (54% dogs)
2022: 50%
2023: 55% (63% favs, 62% 2nd half overall)
2024: Not good
2025: Not active
2026 Wildcard: 5-1
>> 2026 PLAYOFFS: DIVISIONAL <<<
Game 1: Denver +1 Buffalo
Buffalo did not have success running the ball last week. A key for me is that Denver is equally stiff against the run, and that made it very hard for the Bills to win last weekend. Denver is just a slightly better version of Jacksonville. Their defense is a bit better – best against the pass in the NFL and Bills secondary is on life-support – plus, I trust their Qb and defense more in the 4th quarter (they have been money down the stretch themselves). And that should be enough for them to come off a bye and win this game. But if you can get +1 on this knowing it is likely to be another situation where Allen is pressing to take the lead on a final drive, why not.
Pick: Denver +1 (4 Units)
Game 2: Seattle -7.5 SF
The achilles heal of Darnold is teams that can get pressure on him, and that is not San Francisco. In which case, this offense could roll, their defense is very tough and this could be a rout. But I don’t love the idea of laying 7.5 on a divisional opponent even if the metrics warrant that and more. The Seahawks offense is not going to disappear the way the Eagles often do!
Pick: No official pick (or Seattle -7.5 1 unit if you like)
Game 3: New England -3 Houston
These teams are mirror images of one another, really a blueprint for success in the AFC year when you throw in Denver too. To me, it comes down to two things. (1) I don’t expect Nico Collins to play because of that concussion, which really limits Houston. Curiously, the corner covering him may face the exact same problem, Christian Gonzalez. If somehow it breaks that Collins plays and Gonzalez doesn’t, that’s an issue but I think the reverse is more likely. (2) I just like Drake Maye a lot more than CJ Stroud. I’ll take the home field and chance a FG push. It won’t surprise me if this ends up feeling a lot like the Chargers game last week, though, instead of a go-to-the-wire. If Houston serves up turnovers like they did vs. the Steelers, they will lose by 30 points.
Pick: NE -3 (4 Units)
Game 4: Rams -3.5 Chicago
The biggest concern here is that the Rams have been giving up points like a pez dispenser in recent weeks. But I think Chicago – who starts off notoriously slow – won’t be coming back in this one. The Rams have too much of an edge in the passing game on both sides of the ball in my view. Maybe they can get some help from the weather in Chicago to keep this one interesting? I have a bit less confidence here laying 4 points for a road warrior.
Pick: Rams -3.5 (2 Units)
>>> 2026 PLAYOFFS: Wild Card <<<<
Game 1: Carolina +10.5 Rams *** WIN ***
I have always been a value guy. This is a crazy line! No question the Rams are among the best teams in the tournament and Carolina is the worst. But first, this 10.5 point line at home is something. Generally, if you are horrible and playing the 9-0 whoevers, you can expect a +7 at home in the NFL. To cap this off more – Carolina BEAT the Rams! Sometimes dominant teams just match up poorly against certain squads, and this might be the case here. Maybe Carolina has 0 chance to win – and it is fair to say “0 chance to win = 10.5 points”, but I think there is a good chance this game is not settled by 2 tds.
Pick: Carolina +10.5
Game 2: Bears +1.5 Packers *** WIN ***
I like the Bears – last time they played, this squad was frothing at the mouth. They were physical and relentless and they knocked out Love and got the win. The Packers are a beaten up squad with a lot of issues and I’m banking on the Bears, who I know will be giving 110% in this one and we’ll see how that shakes out.
Pick: Bears +1.5
Game 3: Buffalo -1 Jacksonville (low confidence pick would have won)
I think this leans Buffalo with a lot of checkmarks slightly in their favor. But it is going to be very close and as far as betting, this isn’t very interesting to me. Maybe I might go with Buffalo if they start slow as they are a good comeback prospect. I find it hard to believe Buffalo is exiting in round 1 this year.
Pick: No official pick
Game 4: San Francisco +5.5 Philadelphia *** WIN ***
The Eagles offense continues to sputter and don’t forget the 49ers lit teams up with 10 TDs in 2 games before sputtering themselves against a good defense last week. This looks like a lot of points for a game we can expect to be very tight and go to the wire.
Pick: SF +5.5
Game 5: New England -3.5 Chargers *** PARLAY WIN ***
I don’t take favorites lightly in the playoffs but how can you not like this one? The Patriots Qb looks as dialed in as anyone in the league and their defense can shutdown the leaky Chargers. I think this could be very lopsided and the Chargers may look very flummoxed. I like the under too.
Pick: New England -3.5 & Under 45.5
Game 6: Pittsburgh +3 Houston LOSS
It is Monday night football in Pittsburgh, and does it mean anything that Pittsburgh hasn’t lost on Monday night in 35 years across 23 games? We know the Steelers limped to this spot unspectacularly, but they are right where they want to be and no question this is a major failure to lose this game. Houston brings a top defense and an offense that has gotten the job done against some good opponents. The Steelers generally look like crap, but they show flashes on offense and defense of what you think they should always look like and they come into this game pretty fully stocked. This is another line that really appeals to me so I will take the points and even think the Steelers will manage to win.
Pick: Pittsburgh +3