EARLY NFL LINES

2008

By 5dimes.com

Want to know how popular the NFL is amongst the betting public. One need only look at the wagering options available at some sportsbooks in mid-April. Sports bettors can get down action, and are getting in bets, on the NFL right now…before the draft has even taken place as many sportsbooks have posted Early NFL Betting Lines.

The draft is coming up this weekend but the Miami Dolphins already have a deal in place with Michigan OT Jake Long, that said, draft props are still available at 5dimes.com.

The 2008 NFL Week 1 sked will, as per the last few seasons, be bookended by Games in primetime.

Want to get an early jump on NFL betting? Let’s take a look at some of the Early NFL Lines

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Washington at New York Giants

Redskins +4

Giants -4

So much for Eli Manning being forever in brother Peyton’s shadow.

When we last saw Eli and the Giants, they were busy pulling off one of the greatest Super Bowl upsets in recent memory, defeating the New England Patriots 17-14.

The next time we see them in any meaningful action will be in the NFL’s regular season Thursday opener against NFC East rival Washington and 5dimes.com has the defending Super Bowl champs listed as a 4-point favorite.

The number of storied battles between the two are numerous; last season the ‘Skins and Giants split the season series going 1-1 straight up and against the spread.

However, in the last 11 matchups between the two, the Giants have come out on top going 7-4-0 ATS and SU.

The Under seems to be a prevailing trend as both of last year’s meetings went below the Total and in fact, the final Scorein the last 11 tilts has dipped below the Total six times.

In general, the Giants have been very profitable against divisional rivals going 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 NFC East matchups.

That said, doesn’t this one scream out a play on the dog…who actually do matchup well vs. the Super Bowl champs. A hungry divisional rival, facing what might be a team dealing with the “Super Bowl hangover”, and they’re getting Four points. Hmmmm….Let’s take a look at a couple mor early NFL lines.

Monday, September 8, 2008

The NFL will once again conclude Week 1 with a Monday Night Football double header giving bettors twice the action.

Minnesota at Green Bay

Vikes +3

Pack -3

The Packers will head into unfamiliar territory—without Brett Favre as QB—against a very familiar foe, the division rival Minnesota Vikings, favored by a field goal.

While Green Bay has a solid 12-8 record SU against Minny, they haven’t been profitable, going 9-11 ATS in that stretch.

Although the Vikes have a Game breaker in RB Adrian Peterson, they could be hooped at the QB position.

Last year Tarvaris Jackson only passed for 9 TDs and 1,911 yards, entirely unimpressive numbers. But hey, Green Bay has some issues at QB as well. With Favre gone, Aaron Rodgers will shoulder the responsibility for moving this offense. His experience is minimal, to say the least (he only passed for 1 TD in limited action last year).

We like the look of Rodgers though, when they have given him the ball (mostly pre-season action), while Jackson has really struggled. Green Bay has a very good defense, the big question is containing Peterson.

Denver at Oakland

Broncos -1½

Raiders +1½

Opening Kickoff 2008 ends with yet another division rivalry as two teams aiming to be best in the AFC West square off.

Although Oakland has managed to win only six Games over the last two season (yikes!) they might be turning the ship around as they focus on a solid base of young talent. However, Al Davis is still involved so it could easily be another washout year for Raider-fan.

Oakland has dropped 15 out of its last 20 against Denver, but the Raiders have covered in Four consecutive Games against the Broncos dating back to October of 2006.

So if you are looking for an “NFL-hit” between the NBA playoff bets, baseball and hockey, surf over to 5dimes.com and check out all the early NFL lines.

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NFL Weekly Look Ahead – Week 12
 

The NFL Game of the week goes down on the East coast when Chicago travels to New England to take on the Patriots. The Bears come in at 9-1 after back-to-back wins in the Meadowlands over the Giants and Jets. New England routed the Packers on the road to makeup for two straight losses the previous weeks.

With just one loss the Bears have a vice grip lock on the NFC. The Pats still are fighting for home field in the AFC but are more likely to wind up in the playoffs as a divisional winner but without a bye in the wildcard round.

The Pats are uncharacteristically 2-3 at home while Chicago is 5-0 on the road this season.

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots 11/26 4:15 pm

Line: New England -3
Total: 36.5

Very similar numbers make you think this Game will be tight until the very end. The Bears are scoring around Four touchdowns a Game while New England comes in at just under 24. Both teams are giving up fewer than 14 a Game on defense and this one looks to be on the lower scoring side of things.

However, in Chicago’s last nine Games the over is 7-1-1. This season the Bears have posted a 7-2-1 record for the over/under, but for the Pats the under has hit 21 of the last 29 times in November.

New England has won the past two meetings and five of the last six, but the teams have not met since 2003.

Chicago is an underdog for only the second time this year. Over their last Four Games the Bears have gone 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 points. Chicago is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven Games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous Game.

New England has covered only one of its last five Games as a favorite in Foxboro. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five November Games.

The Pats have hit the under the past five Games after following a SU win.

2008-2009 NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

Not Much separates three NFC South teams, the Panthers, Bucs and Saints, while the Falcons continue to rebuild and recover from the Michael Vick fiasco. Each of the three mentioned has their different strengths. With the Saints, it’s an offense led by Drew Brees. With the Bucs, it’s a solid defense, but also an offense that could break out. The Panthers had to deal with the Jake Delhomme injury last season. He played 3 Games last season and still led the team in touchdown passes! So with a healthy Delhomme and a coach in John Fox potentially on the hot seat, watch the Panthers. Don’t forget to sign up to receive Our Free Picks newsletter each week during the NFL and College Season as Our Key release crew will release the strongest plays on the board each week – free!

New Orleans Saints: Odds to win NFC South – 1-1

Head Coach: Sean Payton (3rd year)

Off. Coord: Doug Marrone; Def. Coord: Gary Gibbs

2007 Record: SUR 7-9, PSR 6-10, O-U 10-5-1

Even with a very questionable defense, the Saints are “leaps and bounds” ahead of the other teams in this division……..

Drew Brees started slow like the rest of the Saints offense in 2007 but once he got his rhythm there was no stopping him. After averaging 232 yards over the first 6 Games he averaged a silly 303 yards the rest of the way. 5 TD passes in the first 6 Games, 23 in the last 10. You get the picture. For the season Brees finished 2nd in passing yards (4423), 3rd in comp. % (67.5), 6th in TD passes (28), and 1st in red-zone comp. % (71.4). New Orleans signed Brees to a 6-year, $60 million deal in 2006 but many were afraid his surgically-repaired right shoulder was trashed. A lot of the money was back-loaded to protect the team against re-injury. Well, Brees is collecting the back-loaded money. In 2006 he was pure magic: 4418 passing yards (1st), 26 TD passes (3rd), and a 96.2 QB rating (3rd). Brees threw eight 300-yard Games, including a 510-yard Game, and threw 20 TDs from week 8 to week 14. This offensive line allowed a sack every 40.7 attempts, best in the NFL. Jahri Evans was robbed of a Pro Bowl spot in ’07. Goodwin replaced C Jeff Faine and did great. 

Regardless of how potent the 2008 offense is, it might not matter unless the “D” makes some big strides. Thus, the Saints were major players in free agency, eyeing almost every available defender. And they focused almost exclusively on defense in the draft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Odds to win Division 2-1

Head Coach: Jon Gruden (7th yr. in T.B.)

Off. Coord: Bill Muir; Def. Coord: Monte Kiffin

2007 Record: SUR 9-8, PSR 8-8-1, O-U 9-8

Tampa Bay’s problems are: 1. Revolving quarterbacks during the season. 2. A group of wide receivers that is ready for an old age home. 3. Consistency at running back.

STICK WITH GARCIA, HELLO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Garcia’s QB rating (94.6) was the 7th best mark in the league. His 4 INTs were the least of any starting QB not named David Garrard. With Galloway (37) and Hilliard (32) both in their 30s and Michael Clayton having settled into his role as complement WR/blocker, Gruden is looking for

someone—anyone—who can make “splash” plays in his West Coast passing Game (16th LY). Many have gotten a look from Gruden. But he’s still seeking a breakthrough guy.

In 2007, the Bucs were No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in total defense, and No. 3 in scoring defense.

Carolina Panthers: Odds to win the South 5-2

Head Coach: John Fox (7th year)

Off. Coord: Jeff Davidson; Def. Coord: Mike Trgovac

2007 Record: SUR 7-9, PSR 8-8, O-U 6-10

Just too many questions surrounding this club to make a serious run at post season play.

You just knew that Williams couldn’t escape the 2008 draft without a new running back added to the mix. After DeShaun Foster left for San Francisco they needed a power back to fill his shoes. In comes Jonathan Stewart with the 13th pick. Too bad for Williams, he’s actually quite effective when he gets extended playing time. He only had 10+ carries in 7 Games but in those Games Williams carried 98 times for 554 yards (5.6 ypc) with 4 TDs. And Carolina went 6-1. But many teams are going to 1-2 punches these days and Williams might be best suited for a change-of-pace role.

Gross/Wharton can maul, but playing new positions. 1st-rd OT Jeff Otah is thrown to the wolves.  C Ryan Kalil is good but only has 3 career starts.  Many nice reserves.

With Peppers’ longtime DE colleague Mike Rucker finally calling it quits, Carolina hopes young DEs Stanley McClover and Charles Johnson can become pass-rush threats.

Atlanta Falcons: Odds 15-1

Head Coach: Mike Smith (1st year)

Off. Coord: M. Mularkey; Def. Coord: B. VanGorder

2007 Record: SUR 4-12, PSR 8-8, O-U 9-7

Obviously, this is their second year as a rebuilding team but even so this should a very “worthy” team to follow.

They’ve considered 2007 2nd-rd pick Blalock at RT. New OL coach Paul Bodreau had great success with Panthers, Jags, & Rams. McClure is underrated. Not a horrible group. Michael

Turner signed a 6-year deal worth $34 million, including a whopping $15m in guarantees. That’s not platoon money. That’s “20-25 carries per Game” money, hands down. Turner’s waited for 4 years for this chance, so he wouldn’t sign with any team that even hinted at a platoon. Just like LaMont Jordan and Chester Taylor, Turner caddied for 4 years, towing the company line until he got his shot. Both those guys topped 1,000 yards in their first season starting for a new team – and just like Turner, both of them joined a pretty bad team. Matt Ryan has the size, arm, and smarts – and since Dimitroff was around a pretty good QB for the last 6 yeas in New England, we have to believe Ryan will succeed. He might be thrown in immediately so the road could be bumpy early.

The Falcons defense is in rebuild mode. They lost DB DeAngelo Hall to the Raiders, and they have aging stars in DL John Abraham, LB Keith Brooking and DB Lawyer Milloy. In 2007, they were last in standard-scoring Fantasy leagues. One thing that could improve Atlanta’s defense is the addition of rookies Curtis Lofton, Chevis Jackson and Thomas DeCoud, who could make an impact right away. New coach Mike Smith, the architect of the Jaguars defense, has his work cut out for him.

Odds provided by the largest sportsbook in the world – 5dimes.com

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

 Sunday, 8:15 pm EST – NBC

New England and Denver last met on Jan. 14 in an AFC divisional playoff Game at Denver. The Patriots out-gained the Broncos 420-286 in that Game, but also turned the ball over five times. New England looks for a better effort and tries to remain unbeaten when they host the Broncos on Sunday night.

The defeat was New England’s first in 11 postseason Games with Bill Belichick as coach and Tom Brady at quarterback, and ended the team’s run of two consecutive Super Bowl titles.
This season the Patriots have started 2-0 but it has not been easy. After recovering from a 10-point halftime deficit to defeat Buffalo 19-17 in Week 1, New England scored the first 24 points against the New York Jets last Sunday before surviving 24-17. ”We have that kind of lead, we’ve got to really put the dagger in them and don’t give them any hope that they can come back,” Patriots linebacker Tully Banta-Cain said. ”If we’re already playing good, play even better.”

The line on this Game has the Patriots a 6.5 point home favorite with a total of 39 at SBG Global.

The Patriots ranked 24th in the NFL in rushing offense last season but are third this season with 165 yards per Game. Veteran Corey Dillon has gained 153 yards on 36 carries, while rookie first-round draft pick Laurence Maroney has rushed 33 times for 151 yards. Tom Brady does not have his usual numbers this year though. He has thrown for 383 yards and three touchdowns, but has been intercepted twice. Last year’s top two wide receivers, Deion Branch and David Givens are gone, and no other receiver has stepped up.

The quarterback position in Denver is a real problem as Jake Plummer’s rating is a sickening 38.6 as he has thrown no touchdowns and Four interceptions while completing only 51.8 percent of his pass attempts. The Broncos (1-1) have managed only 19 points in two Games and are lucky to be 1-1. ”Everyone looks at the quarterback and thinks it is totally his fault and that is never true. You have to put a lot of that responsibility on the coaches and the supporting cast,” Head coach Mike Shanahan said.

Although the Broncos and Patriots are in different divisions, they have faced each other quite a bit. Including the postseason, the teams have met 17 times in the last 20 years, with Denver winning 14 of those contests. Tom Brady is 1-4, including the playoffs, as a starter versus the Broncos and 69-17 against all other opponents.
 

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Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears – Sunday, 8:15 p.m. Eastern – NBC

Are the Chicago Bears good enough to be called Super Bowl contenders or are they just good enough to get by? That question may be answered Sunday night as the Bears host the defending NFC Champion and currently unbeaten Seattle Seahawks.

The Bears overcame mistakes and rallied down the stretch to win at Minnesota 19-16. The Bears are 3-0 for the first time since 1991, when it won its first Four. Defense has been the strength of the Bears. Last season, the Bears allowed the fewest points in the league, and that group is yielding just 7.7 per Game this year. The offense is what has started to get attention though led by quarterback Rex Grossman. Going into the Vikings Game he was the league’s highest rated passer but he had his worst Game of the season. He was 23-of-41 for 278 yards, with a touchdown and two interceptions — one of which Antoine Winfield returned 7 yards for a touchdown at the start of the Fourth quarter. He came back though after Adewale Ogunleye recovered a fumble at the Minnesota 37, and connected with Rashied Davies for a 24-yard touchdown.

Grossman is showing why the Bears drafted him in the first round in 2003. “We believe in Rex, and we have been saying that since the beginning,” center Olin Kreutz said after the Minnesota Game. “It is easier to say it now, but we really believe in him. We really think he is that good.”
Chicago is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 34.5 at SBGGlobal.

The running Game for the Bears has struggled. After rushing for 1,335 yards last season, Thomas Jones missed off season workouts and got demoted behind Cedric Benson. Jones moved back up to No. 1, but hasn’t gotten far this season with 181 yards. Benson, the Fourth pick in last year’s draft, ran for a total of 59 yards against Green Bay and Detroit and didn’t play against Minnesota. The Bears say their rushing average is down from 4.3 yards per carry last year to 2.7 because opponents are stacking up against the run. “We’re just going on what they’re giving us,” head coach Lovie Smith said. “We have another option in order to win football Games right now, and I like that option. … However we do it, I’m satisfied.”

Seattle comes into the Game unbeaten but not unhurt. The Seahawks lost league MVP Shaun Alexander to an injury that may keep him out for quite some time. Just because the Seahawks don’t have Alexander doesn’t mean it will be a cakewalk for the Bears though. Matt Hasselbeck is having an excellent season and has a lot of weapons at his disposal.

Home field should provide the edge for the Bears in this one so lay the points.

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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 4:15 p.m. Eastern – CBS

The story as the unbeaten Bengals take on the 2-1 Patriots will be Carson Palmer vs. Tom Brady. While the Patriots have won three Super Bowls with Brady it could be now it is Carson Palmer time. Both quarterbacks are similar in a lot of ways. They are both California-bred, both went to big name schools (Brady, Michigan; Palmer, USC) and have very similar numbers for the first part of their careers. After their first 32 starts: Brady — 21-11 record, 49 TD, 84.8 passer rating; Palmer — 20-12, 56 TD, 90.4.

The matchup could be decided on the wide-receiving corps. Brady has lost his two key men — Deion Branch (Seattle) and David Givens (Tennessee). He is now working with newcomers Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel to go along with 14-year Patriot Troy Brown.

Palmer, meanwhile, is in his third year of working with WRs Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Kelly Washington, and his second year with Chris Henry. In the last meeting of the teams (a 35-28 New England win in 2004), Houshmandzadeh led the Game’s receivers with 12 catches for 145 yards. “We go how far Carson takes us,” says Washington. “He’s a great leader and a great quarterback.”

The Bengals are a 6 point home favorite with a total of 45 at SBGGlobal.
Yards Per Game: NWE 349, CIN 321
Points Per Game: NWE 16.7, CIN 28.3
Yards Allowed: NWE 326, CIN 318.3
Points Allowed: NWE 17, CIN 15.7

New England, coming off a Week 3 loss to Denver, has not lost back-to-back Games since Dec.16-22, 2002. This is a big test for the Bengals to see if they are truly an elite team. While the Bengals may be able to squeak out a victory, laying almost a touchdown is another matter.
We’ll go with the Patriots and the points in this one.

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College Football Weekly Look Ahead – Week 4

Separation Saturday has passed and there were some terrific Games and several big shocks. I don’t know about others, but Michigan and Louisville winning was not a huge surprise. Certainly the margin of victory surely made you blink twice. Auburn bested LSU in a defensive struggle, 7-3. Oklahoma and Oregon played the best Game of the week, however the Sooners were robbed when the refs choked on two simple replay decisions that awarded the Ducks the Game whenever it clearly should have been a win for Oklahoma. In other Games, Florida won in Neyland over the Vols, Clemson upended Florida State at the Doak and USC beat Nebraska, but in a much more competitive Game.

Here is a brief outlook on the best match-ups for this upcoming Saturday:

Wisconsin at No. 6 Michigan (-14.5)

Both teams come in 3-0, but the Wolverines are big favorites at home. Michigan is firing on all cylinders and will not lose in this spot coming off its biggest win in over a year. Wisconsin has been flying under the Big Ten radar but going up against the UM defense, they will get a dose of reality in the loss.

Prediction: Michigan 31, Wisconsin 13

Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (-17)

After starting slow at home against Cincinnati, the Buckeyes will take care of the Nittany Lions at home. However for some reason these two teams always seem to play tightly contested Games and this one should be no different. After getting embarrassed by Notre Dame two weeks ago, Jo Pa will not allow another beat down on the national scene.

Prediction: Ohio State 24, Penn State 16

No. 22 Arizona State at No. 21 California (-7.5)

A battle of super offenses in the Pac-10 when the Sun Devils meet Cal. Arizona State is 3-0 while Cal has yet to look dominant, even against lesser teams. In a Game that should see lots of points, the road team will prove the better on this weekend with the Sun Devils and sophomore quarterback Rudy Carpenter keeping its perfect record.

Prediction: Arizona State 31, California 30

Alabama at Arkansas (-2)

A good ole southern match-up will take place in Fayetteville between two of the more talented teams in the SEC that are getting no hype. The Tide is 3-0 but have yet to really be tested. The Hogs are 2-1 but have looked good with true freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain after the USC loss. The Game should be fairly close, but the edge goes to the home team with a solid defense and one of the nation’s best running Games.

Prediction: Arkansas 17, Alabama 13

No. 12 Notre Dame (-3.5) at Michigan State

Sparty hosts the Irish, a year after Michigan State came into Notre Dame and left as winners. Notre Dame will be ready after getting romped by Michigan last week. Spartans’ quarterback Drew Stanton has been very impressive as the Spartans are one of the more powerful and efficient offenses in the country. Brady Quinn will do well against a Michigan State defense that is prone to getting pushed around. However the Game is in East Lansing and Notre Dame will be taken down once again.

Prediction: Michigan State 35, Notre Dame 31

Week 3 NFL Picks

9/27/09

It will be week 4 in the NFL before we’ll be ready to start with the Key Releases as Our approach requires at least 4 weeks of stats to work with. However, we’ll go through the NFL card for Sunday with a few comments on each of the Games. Also, don’t forget to check out the Black Cat and his quest for 60% NFL winners.

Titans +2 over Jets – Heck, the fans in New York are already printing up their Super Bowl shirts! Listening to WFAN in New York makes for some great comedy as these Jets fans call up with such hope in their voices. Rex Ryan is talking like he’s already won something. Please. The Jets have a long way to go. The Titans are 0-2, they are desperate, and they are just about the exact same team that won 13 Games a year ago. The Jets come back to earth in a huge letdown week. Titans +2.5 as they win straight up.

Jags +2.5 over Texans – Feel inclined to take any points available with another 0-2 team desperate for a win. Jags dropped Games to Indy and Arizona but should fare a little better against the Texans.

Chiefs +8 over Eagles – Going with the better QB here. We’ll take Cassel over Vick or Kolb any day. Chiefs dominated the Raiders but came up on the short end of the stick a week ago. Vick will make some mistakes here. You don’t sit out a couple of years and pick right up where you left off.

Ravens -13.5 over Browns – Just can’t make a case for the Browns. These teams are night and day. In the NFL, the winner of the Game covers the spread something like 80% of the time. In other words, just concentrate on picking straight up winners. Doesn’t take too much concentration to pick the Ravens here.

Giants -6.5 over Bucs – Same theory in this Game as the Game above. Giants simply the better team. On a 19-5 spread run, plenty of offense and the Bucs have lost 6 straight going back to last season.

Lions +6.5 over Redskins – The Lions are going to win eventually. Wouldn’t bet this one for real money, but for monopoly money we’ll go out on a limb and take the Lions to break through against a Redskin team having trouble offensively.

Rams +6.5 over Packers – Defense wins this one for the Rams in their home opener.

49ers +7 at Vikings – 49ers have held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 16 points or less. If they do that here, there’s plenty of room for a cover. 49ers a much more impressive 2-0 than the Vikings, who have beaten the Browns and Lions to the Niners wins over the Cards and Seahawks.

Falcons +4.5 over Pats – Pats could easily be 0-2. Still wearing a bulls eye because, well because they are the Pats. Falcons meanwhile are quietly 2-0 and Matt Ryan, who looks like the next Tom Brady, returns to the New England area where he played his college ball (BC)

Bears -1.5 over Seahawks – If Hassleback goes, he won’t be near 100%. Cutler finding his rhythm and figures to improve on a weekly basis. We’ll take the better QB here.

Saints -6 over Bills – Tough to bet against this Saints offense. We’ll defer to the “just pick the straight up winner and you’ll cover rule” here.

Chargers -5.5 over Dolphins – Dolphins lose despite holding the ball for 45 minutes. Unreal. That won’t be the case this week. Revenge affair for the Chargers here and simply can’t see them dropping two in a row at home.

Steelers -3.5 over Bengals – Steelers have one 8 straight at Cinci. Make it 9.

Broncos -2 over Raiders – Granted it’s only the Browns and Bengals, but the Broncos defense is looking good and they simply look like a better team than the Raiders after two weeks. With the number -2 we’re just asking for a straight up win here. Raiders got a win last week but didn’t deserve it. We’ll lay the deuce here.

Cards -2.5 over Colts – Colts magically got out of Miami with a win last week after only having the ball for 15 minutes. The short week of practice plus the trip out west will take it’s toll here. Kurt Warner looking as good as Peyton and for those with short term memory loss, the Cards played in the Super Bowl last year.

That’s it for this week. If we had to pick some Games that stand out above the rest we’d take the Titans, Ravens, 49ers, Bears, Broncos and Cards. Good Luck this week and look for Our NFL Key Releases starting in week 5.

WEEK 10 2006

BEARS AT GIANTS

One of more anticipated match-ups in the NFL will be seen Sunday night on NBC when Chicago visits the Giants in a battle of the NFC elite. Granted if the Bears were still perfect the Game would be that much better. But after both teams struggled last week, neither wants to come out again and put up a lackluster effort. Nonetheless, the Bears still have the NFC’s best record at 7-1 and a victory in New York would redeem themselves for that home disaster to Miami this past Sunday. The Giants are at 6-2 and could make the statement that they are actually the league’s best team with the win.

Chicago has faired well away from Soldier Field, going 3-0 thus far. The Giants are 4-1 this year at home, their only loss coming in the season opener to Peyton and the Colts. The Bears still have the NFL’s best defense, only giving up 12.5 points per Game. The Giants, too, have a solid defensive unit, allowing 18 per Game.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants 11/12 8:15 pm (NBC)

Line: New York -3
Total: 39

After a second awful performance in three weeks by Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman, critics will be quick to say that Brian Griese could see time if things don’t improve. Grossman has 12 interceptions this year and Griese is a proven veteran. However Rex is still the starter and has a great chance to prove he should remain the number one guy with a victory this Sunday.

Over the last 19 Games against NFC competition the Bears are 12-5-2 ATS. They are 5-3 against the number this season, as are the Giants. The last time these two teams played against each other was in 2004, the Bears getting the best of the match-up and winning 28-21.

This past Sunday the Giants struggled against Houston, failing to cover a 13-point spread against the road Texans. Prior to that New York had covered Four in a row. The G-Men are 10-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home Games.

Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last seven Games following an ATS loss. After failing to cover a huge spread in Arizona back on MNF, they responded with a 41-10 destruction of San Francisco two weeks back. Chicago is, however, 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road Games.

The under for the Giants is 6-0 over the last six as the home favorite.

PATRIOTS AT CHARGERS

1/14/07

Imagine. 4 playoff Games this weekend and the Bettorsworld Key Releases are on 3 favorites. You had to figure we’d pull the trigger on at least one dog. Well, this would be the one. This isn’t a play against the Chargers as much as it’s a play ON the Patriots. This Patriot team has a way of sneaking up on you as a handicapper. You know they are out there, and you know they are decent, but something about them makes you want to write them off. I know I was one of their doubters early on this year. I felt there was no way they could sustain the players losses. When they let the best kicker in recent memory, possibly ever, slip away this past year, I figured that was the last straw. Slowly but surely they were breaking up this team.

Yet, here we are, in January, and the New England Patriots are once again serious Super Bowl contenders. Who can knock Tom Brady and  Bill Belichick? Especially going up against a QB making his first playoff start and in Philip Rivers and a coach who can’t win the big one. But we aren’t kidding Ourselves here. This won’t be easy. After all, this ain’t the Jets. The Jets trailed the Pats by just a TD up until the 5 minute mark of the 4th quarter last week. That was a Jets team with no running Game and a dink and dunk passing attack. This week the Pats face the best running back in the entire NFL and an offense that can light it up.

But unlike other Games in this round, where we can see a potential dominating performance by one team over another, we just don’t see it in this one. There’s nothing to indicate to us that the Chargers can put the Pats away convincingly. No one else has been able to do it with the exception of the unexplainable loss to the Dolphins on December 12th, 21-0. If you let the Pats hang around, anything can happen.

Here are a few reasons we believe the Pats will hang around in this one.

Philip Rivers against the Raiders – 14 for 31

against the Chiefs – 8 for 23

against the Seahawks – 10 for 30

How about the Charger defense………

Giving up 30 to the Chiefs……..24 to the Rams……..25 to the Browns……..41 to the Bengals……..or 27 to the Broncos. Heck, if the Patriots can manage to Scoreanything close to 21 points this one could get interesting as the Pats only gave up more than 21 twice all year long. One was a 40-23 win at Tennessee and the other was a 27-20 loss to the Colts.

Yards per Point line using entire season is pick em.

YPP Last 6 Games – Chargers by 2

 YPP Last 4 Pats on Road and SD at home – Chargers by 3.5

Points for and against Last 6 Games – Chargers 27-17 and Pats 28-18……..same stat, last 4 road Games for Pats 25-16 and Last 4 home Games for SD – 29-16…….Common opponents, of which there were 5. Pats won by an average of 28-13 while the Chargers won by an average of 33-19.

Chargers were +13 in turnovers while the Pats were +8.

There’s lots of ways to skin a cat. But every way we skin it, it comes up as a tight Game. Can’t see the Pats going down without a hell of a fight and we’ll gladly go to battle with Brady on Our side.

This line of +5 is a dead number. We’d prefer to take +6 or better on this Game. We’d recommend watching the numbers. The Game actually opened at -6 at Pinnacle and was bet down to -4.5 until it settled in at 5. The Greek opened the Game -4 and Cris opened the Game -4.5 and both are currently at -5. It’s not out of the question that we’d see +6 again at regular juice before kickoff. If we don’t see it, we’ll use some of Our college football profits and we’ll buy it up to 6. Currently it would be +6 -117 at Pinnacle on the one point buy. But monitor the number. You should be able to do better than that.

Our PICK  – PATRIOTS +6 (3*)

2008 SUPER BOWL PREDICTION

BETTORSWORLD SUPER BOWL PREDICTION – CHARGERS OVER SAINTS

San Diego Chargers – 14-2 and then one and out on the playoffs in a Game against the Pats they had no business losing. So it’s out with Marty ball and in with Norv Turner. But Turner’s an offensive mind. Offense wasn’t a problem last year. It’s the defense that needs the upgrades. 27-30, 38-24, 32-25, 49-41. Those are not the scores of a Super Bowl Champs Games. The defense has to show improvement or it will be one and done again in 2007-2008. The Schedule cooperated with the Chargers last year and to be honest, for a team that won 14 Games, it doesn’t look all that daunting this year either. They of course get rival Oakland twice, KC twice, the Titans, Detroit, Green Bay and Houston. So there’s some W’s on the card before the season even starts. It will be very interesting to see where San Diego stands after two weeks. They open up at home against the Super Bowl runner up Bears and then travel east for a HUGE revenge Game against the Patriots. Revenge in the NFL is a rarity. It doesn’t apply like it does with College kids. But this is one instance where you can apply it as there were very bitter feelings after last years playoff loss to the Pats, pertaining to the Pats celebration on the Chargers home field. It says here that the Chargers start this year 2-0, and then sweep the board right up to a showdown with the Colts November 11th. It looks like this team has the potential to win another 14 Games this season. Expect them to win playoff Games this year. If the defense can show a little improvement, this team has to be the choice to represent the AFC in the big show this year.
 

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New Orleans Saints – The Saints are headed back to the playoffs this year just with the offense alone. Dree Brees, Reggie Bush and every other starter from a year ago with the exception of Joe Horn. But if they are going to take the next step, the Super Bowl, it’s the defense that will have to step up and improve big time. There’s hope. After giving up boat loads of points over the first half of last season, they tightened up down the stretch. Only allowing 13, 10, 17, 10 and 7 until the meaningless final Game where they gave up 31 to Carolina. But in the 2006-2007 playoffs, the defense returned to early season form, giving up 24 to Philly and 39 to the Bears. But there’s building blocks there for sure. If the defense performs the way it did in that 5 Game stretch to end last season, and the offense picks up where it left off, this team will be very dangerous this year.

ODDS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL

Arizona Cardinals 45-1
Atlanta Falcons 60-1
Baltimore Ravens 20-1
Buffalo Bills 100-1
Carolina Panthers 25-1
Chicago Bears 15-1
Cincinnati Bengals 15-1
Cleveland Browns 150-1
Dallas Cowboys 20-1
Denver Broncos 20-1
Detroit Lions 75-1
Green Bay Packers 45-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Indianapolis Colts 8-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1
Kansas City Chiefs 60-1
Miami Dolphins 55-1
Minnesota Vikings 50-1
New England Patriots 5-2
New Orleans Saints 15-1
New York Giants 30-1
New York Jets 40-1
Oakland Raiders 75-1
Philadelphia Eagles 20-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 25-1
Saint Louis Rams 45-1
San Diego Chargers 6-1
San Francisco 49ers 20-1
Seattle Seahawks 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccanneers 50-1
Tennessee Titans 60-1
Washington Redskins 50-1

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