I'll be upfront, I don't really like my computer projections this week but I haven't been too good this year at telling my computer when its wrong. So there you go, that's what my linux box thinks. Keep in mind, these numbers DO NOT REFLECT INJURIES, -20 degree weather, and a host of other factors that weigh against the underdogs this weekend. Do you want to take points against the greatest offense ever in the AFC Championship?? Against the opposing offenses beaten up starters? Can the Giants win a game in really bad conditions against a team with a lot of injuries on the defense against an O that has overwhelmed many others this season? Did you see how well Ryan Grant ran last weekend? So you know what? I will sit this one out (probably). While the value seems to point to the underdogs, it better!
Other notes:
San Diego finished about tied for defense with New England near the top of the league, but trails significantly in offense. If you look at the Chargers with the old Bears defensive coach as the LINEBACKER coach and realize how good this San Diego defense has become, they are kind of like a 2006 season Bears team on offensive steroids. They would be good enough to lead for the SB in most normal AFC years.
The Giants are slightly ahead of GB in defense and slightly behind on offense. Both teams are top 10 in these categories, although GB fell in 4th for overall offense behind Dallas and Indianapolis.
New England will score about 37 points a game against an average NFL team, by far the most I've ever seen. But based on recent play, that number is *only* 32 -- not that far ahead of Green Bay who finished at 29 in the later part of the season (a single FG).
San Diego D has been almost New England-like in dominance in the later part of the season and led the league. The Giants also were dominant and much better than the Packers and Patriots. So the underdogs bring in very hot defenses. To have any chance of an upset, these games must be low scoring.
**Round 2**
Indianapolis -10 -120 San Diego
Indianapolis 27, San Diego 14
Why Indianapolis will cover?
* I don't trust Norv as a bigtime game coach. His record is abysmal.
* LT vs. Bob Sanders, not good.
* Marv is back, Gates isn't. That could be a spread killer.
* They are the FUCKING Colts.
* San Diego travels poorly.
* Everyone wants to see them win and play the Pats.
Why the Chargers will cover.
The points are high, even considering the Gates/Harrison problem. They are awfully good to be laying 10.
Gates is only one guy. What do they say? A QB is worth 3 points on the spread? Hmmmm...
The Colts home field advantage in 2007 was suspect at best
AFC is upset land, and the Pats won yesterday...soo.....
To have a successful 2007, they must WIN this game. Otherwise, it was just a huge waste of a season. So they won a wildcard game, so what?
The Colts have never proven they can win a playoff game against a team committed to run the ball.
NYG +7 -105 Dallas
Dallas 23, NYG 17
The line value here isn't there, but I just don't believe in Romo. He gets a big contract, plays a good game, and then......what????? Back to the pop singer/crappy play of 2006. Last year, they couldn't beat a Seattle team with a rookie secondary. Ok, MAYBE that was Bill Parcells fault for reining them in too tight. But remember, it took Peyton YEARS to win in the playoffs. Is Romo ready? REALLY???? Meanwhile, TO opens his fat mouth, gets hurt, starts dropping everything in sight on 3rd down...punt time. Nope, not seeing it. This is more a bet against Dallas than one on NYG. I wish the Redskins were here, I really do, but we get the Giants and we'll roll on it. Dallas lacks a home field advantage, and plays the best road team in football.
The Black Cat's underdogs have been 60% certified gold this season, and I have good news: we have some this weekend! The theme for this week pretty much repeats through all 4 games. The host teams were great for most of the season, while the challengers are playing their best football right now -- and generally have been playing better football than their hosts. The lines are set just a couple points below where the host teams should play if they recapture their prime this weekend. But that also means the lines are several points above where they should be based on a significant amount of recent play. None of the challengers has a great chance to win this weekend, but they all are significant cover opportunities.
Jacksonville +13 New England
New England 34, Jacksonville 27
Black Cat's Line: NE -7.5
The Jacksonville's Jaguars are the nations hottest team. Based on the overall season, this game would be an -11 point spot. But the Jags are playing well enough to make this a FG game.
Why the Jags will cover:
* #1 offense over the 2nd half of 2007 (Black Cat rankings)
* New England has slipped from #3 to #14 in defense
* Vegas Line is pretty fat with probably the upside being a 16 point line by NE (vs. 13 point line.)
* Brady & Company generate more points on the road than at home
* Team does not turnover the ball, a playoff key
Why the Pats will cover:
* The defense plays great at home, while Jacksonville's defense is sloppier on the road
* If they recapture their early season form, the line is a tossup
* Garrard has been sloppy against the Steeler 3-4 D and the Patriots are known to confuse QBs too
* C'mon, its the PATRIOTS.
Seattle +7.5 Green Bay
Green Bay 27, Seattle 21
Black Cat's Line: GB -3
Although Green Bay's offense continues to chug, improving even, the defense is getting sloppy. Seattle brings a top 10 (barely) defense -- which looked darn good last week -- with an O that is starting to click finally.
Why Seattle will cover:
* Good line value, all indications I have show they should be able to hang 7.
* Good playoff experience. Last year, Seattle played the dominant Bears and really gave it a show. Green Bay is young and very inexperienced -- ripe for a playoff plucking.
* Holmgren has gotten the better of Farve in the past
* When Farve played in one of their biggest games against Dallas, he forced balls and played bad
Why the Pack will cover:
* Defense plays great at home, Seattle O struggles on the road
* Seattle is getting reliant on their passing game, and nobody throws better than Farve under 32 degrees. A pass-first offense could play right into the hands of the Packers dangerous D and make this lopsided.
* The NFC has not been prone to many straight-up upsets in this round. Usually the big upsets seem to fall in the AFC for whatever reason.
***WILDCARD WEEKEND***
2-2
In short, I'm looking for down-to-the-wire Saturday, and Blowout Sunday. In detail...
Washington +3 EVEN Seattle
Seattle 21, Washington 20
**LOSS** Well, the Skins did have the lead and the ball on the 20 midway through the 4th...so....
Why Washington will cover:
* 2nd best defense in the NFL for 2nd half of the season
* Slightly better team
* Top 10 offense over 2nd half of the season
* Skins have 21 reasons to win this game
* Battle tested...and their opponent is not
Why Seattle will cover:
* Top 10 defense over 2nd half of the season
* Seattle plays great at home, Washington weaker on road
Pittsburgh +2.5 **EVEN** Jacksonville
Pittsburgh 21, Jacksonville 20
**WIN** I meant to point out that Pittsburgh had rattled the JJ QB more than any other team and that could produce INTs. But what I felt during the game (at the time, before the announcers pointed it out--they always steal my stuff) that going for 2 (after the penalty) from the 12-yard line with over 10 minutes to go (meaning that JJ had a great shot of tacking on 3) was really STUPID and it did cost Pittsburgh the playoff game. Still, we racked up the W and I'm not surprised the game fell to a couple of points.
Why Jacksonville will win:
* Hottest team in the NFL over the 2nd half (by far)
* Beat them solidly head-to-head recently
* Team does NOT turn over the ball (4 ints by QB?)--clear advantage in the playoffs
* Teams are near identical on defense, but Jack offense better
Why Pittsburgh will cover:
* They've done better in big games this year than Jacksonville
* Great home field advantage where Jacks is weaker on road
* Underdog status at home will challenge this team
Tampa Bay -3 **EVEN** NYG
**LOSS** The Giants were shutdown offensively and defensively -- but just for 1Q. After that, the brutal side of the Tampa Bay offense reared its ugly head, and the Tampa defense looked ordinary.
Tampa 28, New York Giants 7
Why Giants will cover:
* Giants are a great road team
* Giants offense has been good most of the year, and the defense plays very well at times
* Tampa is offensively challenged, esp. without Garcia
* Both of these teams are erratic leaving it wide open
* Giants D has outperformed tampa over 2nd half of the season
Why Tampa will cover:
* Gruden can win
* Giants offense and defense are shutdown completely by the better teams in the NFL, and NYG are arguably the worst team in the playoffs for this reason
* Tampa has played with a great home field advantage
* Tampa was the #4 defense in the NFL this year from start to finish
* Tampa's O outperformed NYG O in 2nd half of the season, even with Garcia ailing frequently
SD -10 Tennessee
**WIN** It was ugly -- particularly losing Gates in the first half -- but ultimately, thanks to a missed FG, Tennessee only scored the 6 points predicted.
SD 27, Tennessee 6
Why SD will cover:
* SD must win a home playoff game after last year's debacle
* Tennessee just happy to be there
* #1 D over the 2nd half of the season, with a good O to boot
* Tennessee can't move the ball offensively
* If you can't tell, this is my favorite game of the weekend even though I'd like a point or two on the spread to feel really great about it.
Why Tennessee will cover:
* Norv has a lot to prove in big game management
* Jeff Fisher doesn't
******************************************
Ground Rules: There will be 100 winning selections and approximately 60 of them will win. Picks can be made up to ****15 minutes**** before the kickoff of ANY game (but generally are not). I attempt to post -110 or better lines based on prevailing rates. Its not unusual for lines to move against my picks since I am generally anti-public in my selections. I will stick with whatever line I use here.
**********************************************************************************************************
BLACK CAT PLAYOFF NOTES:
In case you recently were rescued from a stranded island, New England is an overwhelming favorite to win the superbowl. But lets assume this doesn't happen because it makes the playoffs rather boring...
Jacksonville is red hot and is the best darkhorse in the playoffs.
Dallas' defense is a huge achilles heal and its been picked apart by the better teams in the league, but can anyone in the NFC capitalize on this? And if you haven't noticed this, the offense is struggling lately. The Cowboys do not have the NFC locked up.
Seattle is very untested and unproven.
Pittsburgh can still boast defense, but the loss of Aaron Smith is rumored to be extremely problematic, not including his big ass mouth.
San Diego has got to be desperate to win that 1st playoff game after last year's meltdown. A Jacksonville/SD game will be an incredible matchup and will unleash a powerful darkhorse wildcard team.
The Giants have arguably the worst offense and defense in the playoffs, which should have cannons firing in Tampa.
If Washington makes the playoffs (and they should) and escapes Seattle, they can beat Dallas head-to-head in the 2nd round.
**********************************************************************************************************
Looks like I saved the BEST for LAST. The Top "107" is completed with 61 wins for a net of exactly 57%. Because of the extra juice I picked up along the way, this was equivalent to 58 wins at -110 which matches 2006.
See you in the playoffs....
Last Week: 5-1 83.33% (+387.97)
Season: 61-46 57% (Net +1111.79 on $100 bets)
Winning weeks: 9-5-2 64.3%
The Fast 50: 29-21 (58%)
The Slow 57: 32-25 (56%)
Favorites: 28-26 (51.9%)
Dogs: 33-20 (62.3%)
XXX Buffalo PK +115 Giants **LOSS** Giants 38, Buffalo 21
Comment: It started out well, but then a Giant actually caught a ball.
Buffalo 17, Giants 14
Nice juice on a game that really favors Buffalo. We know the Giants don't play well in bad weather, there's ample evidence of that. And it looks like another rainy, windy day. Perfect for Buffalo. And they have the emotion of their fallen player being there on Sunday. Not why I picked them, but it doesn't hurt.
WIN #61: Detroit -4.5 Kansas City **WIN** Detroit 25, KC 20
Comment: Almost got screwed by a 4th down trick play, but the ball mysteriously found its way in field goal range before time ran out.
Detroit 23, KC 17
Detroit has been a great team at home. They will rebound from their worst game of the season against the lifeless Chiefs. Detroit can put up points, something KC just can not do.
WIN #60: Cincinnati PK +120 Cleveland **WIN** Cincinnati 19, Cleveland 14
Comment: Got to love these intrastate rivalries.
Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 28 (OT)
The cardiac Browns take a hard one this week. They aren't as good on the road and the Bengals are bouncing off of their worst game of the season. The secret weapon here may be Chad Johnson, who was snubbed in the pro bowl and might play this week.
WIN #59: NY Jets +9 Tennessee **WIN** Tennesse 10, Jets 6
Comment: Chad wasn't great but the game hung close throughout.
Tennessee 21, NY Jets 20
I hear Chad Pennington, the most hated franchise QB in football, might play and that's a good thing in my book. Either way, this game looks like a solid value, laying a fat 9 on the conservative playing Titans.
Win #58: Washington +6.5 Minnesota **WIN** Washington 32, Minnesota 21
Comment: Washington's best game of the season, they looked like a Joe Gibbs team finally!
Minnesota 21, Washington 17
The Vikings are red hot, but they can't possibly be as good as they've played recently with their struggling rooking QB. This strikes me as a "come to earth game". The Redskins are also surging and the healthy Clinton Portis has been a big part of that, along with his productive sidekick Ladell Betts. Todd Collins hasn't been spectacular, but he hasn't made the glaring mistakes contributed by Jason Campbell throughout the season and that's worked for them. The numbers don't point to an upset, but don't be shocked if there is one.
Win #57: Carolina +10.5 -105 Dallas **WIN** Dallas 20, Carolina 13
Dallas 21, Carolina 14
This game is a bit difficult to handicap. As the Cowboys have played all season, the line is about what I would put out there. But recently, the Cowboys have had to lean on their defense while Carolina has looked stronger, including a good performance last week with their rookie QB. But Dallas has been a better offense on the road. And after two straight poor performances, a dead cat bounce would cover the spread. But with Romo's finger being questionable, and TO dropping balls once again while his mouth goes into overdrive, this smacks of 2006 to me. Dallas is sliding and I believe that'll provide a winning edge tonight, even if its a slim one. The Pittsburgh game a couple nights ago had about the same characteristics. That one turned out well for Pittsburgh but even they struggled with a perfect game from the QB spot.
Win #56: Washington +6 NYG **WIN**
NYG 23, Washington 21
Comment: It helped that the NYG played like they had the division clinched. Poor Manning, he could have been a Charger!
100. Upset special!! Miami BEATS Baltimore +150 **WIN**
Comment: Nice way to wrap up the season on a 22-16 OT win.
Miami 23, Baltimore 14
And for Pick #100....I got a special one for you. Its a call on the $$$-line that the Dolphins get win #1!! Baltimore's secondary is AWOL people and Miami is licking its collective chops. This SUNDAY is the day, pop the champagne Tampa Bay Buccanneers of 1976, the Dolphins will NOT be joining you! Don't be shocked, you heard it hear 1st from the master of the underdogs, the Black Cat.
99. KC +3.5 Tennessee **LOSS**
Comment: Well, the numbers lied.
KC 17, Tennessee 13
This is a fairly shocking pick to me but I had green lights across the board on this one. So we're rollin' with the Chiefs in what, statistically speaking, looks like an extremely savy play.
98. NE -21 NYJ **LOSS**
Comment: Oh, weather...duh. Sorry, I'm in California...
New England 42, Jets 10
My analysis shows that 21 is a fair line and is largely in agreement that NE should cover. However, stepping outside the numerical analysis, you'd have to be an idiot not to realize that the Patriots are going to kick the living shit out of the Jets tomorrow and run up the score as far as humanly possible!
97. Houston +2.5 Denver **WIN**
No Score Available
I liked this when Houston was favored, so I like it even more now at +2.5. Both teams are coming off of great games, although you could question how productive Houston's offense really was despite racking up 28 points. Still, the passing game was efficient, if not explosive. Denver exploded all over KC and had their way. I'll hang my hat on one fact: its Thursday night and the road team never wins on Thursday night football. Aside from that, there's some solid value here as we know how good Houston can be with Andre Johnson in the fold. It'll be a single digit win for the Texans.
** END OF WEEK 14 **
96. New Orleans -3.5 Atlanta **WIN**
New Orleans 33, Atlanta 20
Could it be that losing Reggie Bush will HELP New Orleans? Bush seems to have been more counterproductive this season. The defenses are equally lame but New Orleans is the better offense here. Norwood could be an annoying factor in this game, but we'll risk it.
95. Indianapolis -8.5 Baltimore **WIN**
Indy 24, Baltimore 10
Baltimore can now return to the sucky team they really are.
94. KC +7 **EVEN** Denver **LOSS**
Kansas City 21, Denver 20
93. TB -3 **EVEN $$$** Houston **LOSS*
TB 23, Houston 17
Sure Garcia is banged up. Sure Galloway might be toe turfed. But look at the other side -- they don't even have Matt this week. I've seen the TB backup, and at least he was pretty damn good in relief. And with TB, there's always that top-flight defense to fall back on. Houston also is a medical casualty in the run department and could be one-dimensional with the relief squad, which is bad.
92. Cincinnati -9.5 Stl **LOSS**
Cincinnati 31, St. Louis 20
Cincy had a terrible game last week, one of their worst of the season. Cincinnati has been a great rebound team and they seem to be catching the hot Rams at the right time. Bulger can't finish a game and Frerotte is now gone. The line is a bit high but I like the Bengals chances of winning this game by double digits!
91. NE -10.5 **EVEN $$$** Pittsburgh **WIN**
New England 34, Pittsburgh 9
My take is that the Patriots took their last two games lightly. Now, certainly Philadelphia executed well and the Patriots failed to execute last week against Baltimore. But now they are back at home and "only" a 10.5 point favorite. They face the #1 defense in the league yet again, but we already know what that means -- the Steelers won't be #1 for much longer (and that's somewhat a product of their home field). The closer a matchup looks, the bigger the matchup is, the more likely I think you are to get a very lopsided score. After two horrible weeks, the Steelers are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Patriots will be coming to play this week, no doubt about it.
90. San Diego PK Tennessee **WIN**
San Diego 23, Tennessee 14
Ok, dog or favorite...how about neither? This one feels a bit like a trap game. Perhaps having Albert back, the bookies feel the Titans match up well against the surging LT. I feel I have a pretty good bead on the Titans, though, with Albert Haynesworth and I still can't see this as a pick'em. While this game could get hairy, I like the value here and see the Chargers pulling it out as they continue to surge in the season's 2nd half.
**END OF WEEK 13**
89. New England -19 Baltimore **LOSS** New England 27, Baltimore 24
Comment: How the *&^(*^ should I know? Sure the Pats receivers dropped nearly everything, but that the Ravens offense had a pulse was simply shocking.
New England 38, Baltimore 7
An all-pro team coming off their worst game of the season with an extra day of rest against an incompetant offense (no offense, SF) facing their NFL best defense and their all-pro offense against a fading defensive unit who is weak against the pass? I'll play it! Honestly, I felt BEFORE Sunday night last week that the Eagles were the toughest team left on the schedule, statistically speaking (no slight intended to the Steelers, who might actually have a shot at the upset).
88. Pittsburgh -7 Cincinnati **WIN** Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 10
Comment: It wasn't as pretty as it should have been, but the score ended the same anyway. The Steelers had trouble closing this game and the under was touch-and-go to the end, but the defense shut down the Bengals after an auspicious start.
Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 13
I wouldn't count too much on that "27" if the conditions suck again, and I love the under in this game, but I think Pittsburgh will manage to cover here. I posted this as Cincinnati on freesports but have changed my mind.
87. TB +3 **+110** NO **WIN** TB 27, NO 23
Comment: I got a big game from an unknown QB, but the defense held the game.
New Orleans 20, TB 19
I love this game! Mounds of juice with one of the NFL's best defenses leading the charge. Yes, there are issues on offense for Tampa Bay but Garcia is one tough SOB and I could see him playing. Either way, expect the Bucs to control this game defensively! I think the line is a tad high in this one.
86. Indianapolis -7 **EVEN** Jacksonville **LOSS** Ind 28, Jacks 25
Comment: This one is pretty disappointing as the Colts held the 7+ lead for most of the game.
Indianapolis 27, Jacksonville 14
You got to LOVE juice on the Colts! I think we saw the end of the Colts trough and they are getting healthy, albeit missing two very critical cogs. The defense may slip a bit but this is still a premier unit. And the offense -- well, that Peyton guy is not that bad. Bottom line: Bob Sanders is playing, so you bet the Colts.
85. Atlanta +3 **EVEN** St Louis **LOSS** STL 28, ATL 16
Comment: Sure enough, Gus played and played well. Atlanta had a chance to pull this back in but started way too late.
Stl 19, Atl 17
I feel bad for Gus and think he could rebound after last week's embarrassment, but this is still an immobile rock behind a shaky offensive line. Its hard to see this as an ideal fit. The Rams still boast one of the troubled offenses and defenses in the league, even if they are coming down from an impressive surge. This is going to be a tight ballgame and I'll take the FG spot here.
84. Oakland +3.5 Denver **WIN** Oakland 34, Denver 20
Comment: Looks like I had this one read dead-on.
Oak 27, Den 20
Denver still has crap for defense and Oakland is finding some offense behind Justin Fargas. The Oakland defense should have Shanahan licking his chops, but his backs are medical wrecks and could handicap their advantage. Shanahan is an overrated weenie who lives to beat the Raiders and I'll enjoy watching him blow this game and get really pissed off about something, making it worth the price of admission! There's gonna be some long wind sprints on Monday.
83. Washington -5.5 Buffalo **LOSS** Buffalo 17, WASH 16
Comment: At halftime, the Redskins had the spread covered and just needed to play even with the Bills. They didn't.
Washington 31, Buffalo 23
Quick update here to say...YES, play the Washington Redskins. Expect the Redskin fans to show what makes them one of the best fans in the NFL on Sunday and the players won't dare let them or their teammate down. Like my Vegas cabbie says, "If someone is dead, its a bet." The Redskins were due to put a good game together anyway. This could be the seminal moment that will inspire this team to run the table for the rest of the season. I apologize if this prediction comes across as crass but I'm here to make picks and I pick the Redskins to rally in an emotional effort.
END OF WEEK 12
82. Buffalo +8 Jacksonville **LOSS** Jack 36, Buffalo 14
Believe it or not, Buffalo looked like they would cover for most of this game...
Jacksonville 17, Buffalo 14
I'm not sure of the pace of the game but I think Jacksonville will have to squeek this one out.
81. Chicago -1.5 Denver **WIN** Chicago 37, Denver 34
Comment: I was really on the fence about playing this one. Apparently, the game was quite "on the fence" too. I did say I wasn't sure about the pace of this game. A couple TDs in a couple seconds? I'd call that pace "fast".
Chicago 17, Denver 14
Denver's hot, but I think the bookmaker has caught up to them in this game. After a couple of strong weeks, they should struggle here.
80. Cinncinnati +1.5 Tenneessee **WIN** Cincy 35, Tenn 6
Comment: Haynesworth was a bigger factor than the highlights would leave one to believe.
Cincinnati 21, Tennessee 13
The Haynesworth injury is real and devastating and as great as Vince played on Monday night, the receivers aren't helping him and the RBs are average. TJ should play.
79. San Diego -8.5 Baltimore **WIN** SD 32, Baltimore 14
Comment: I said it all before the game. Swish...
San Diego 36, Baltimore 10
The on-and-off chargers are on. Baltimore is now wretched on both sides of the ball.
78. Arizona -10.5 **EVEN** SF **LOSS** SF 37, AZ 31
Comment: Kurt Warner -- YES the "greatest show on turf" Kurt -- actually broke his own single game passing record in this one. Aside from that, you can't help feel dumb laying 10.5 on the Cards and losing. But the apparent stupidity of it all is one reason why I felt it would actually cover.
Arizona 28, SF 0
Who'd ever would have thunk the cardinals would carry 10.5?
77. Philadelphia +24 NE **WIN** NE 31, PHI 28
Comment: NE actually hit my score prediction, but while I wasn't worried about AJ, he was incredibly sharp.
NE 31, Philadelphia 13
I don't see the QB change as a major problem considering how McNabb has played all year, so I'll take the extra vig.
76. Miami +16 Pittsburgh **WIN** Pittsburgh 3, Miami 0
Comment: So the weather helped a little bit, I'm not ashamed. That's part of taking dogs right?
Pittsburgh 24, Miami 9
The predicted score is a best case scenario for Pittsburgh in my estimation. The reality could be a lot uglier even though one should expect a far better effort than they laid against the Jets.
75. GOBBLE GOBBLE Dallas -13.5 New York Jets **WIN** Dallas 34, Jets 3
Comment: An exacta on Dallas, although the Jets managed to underperform "14". I also picked the right order of the margins on those fat fat spreads.
Dallas 34, Jets 14
What would thanksgiving be without a lopsided blowout, by the Cowboys no less? I think the Jets used up all of their luck against Pittsburgh. This should be a clobbering...the other games are tough. Indy will probably clobber Atlanta but its really hard to say what either team is fielding. The Detroit/GB looks like it should be kind of tight, although it won't surprise me if GB has their way too. I've rolled on Detroit too many times in recent years to handle that pain again.
**END OF WEEK 11**
74. Tennessee +2 Denver **LOSS** DEN 34, TEN 20
Comment: Haynesworth gets the 2007 "Bob Sanders" award with this game. I really thought he would play on MNF.
Tennessee 21, Denver 17
I felt so good about this game, I chose this over NE. Ok, there's not much upside to that story, but it gives you the idea that I really like this game. Sure, the dink and dunk routine with Young scares me. Sure I'm very concerned about Albert Haynesworth missing a 2nd straight week. But in this episode of "Back to the Future Part II" I finally ride the Texans and Titans to another winning weekend!
73. Houston -1 New Orleans **WIN** Houston 23, NO 10
Comment: Johnson is back, and so are the Texans!
Houston 33, New Orleans 24
Its time to go BACK TO THE FUTURE! This is a tricky game to handicap. On one side, you have the Saints coming off an embarrassing game looking to redeem themselves, and a possible grudge effort by Bush against the Houston Texans. You also have a Texans team that seems to tank every other week -- and this is the tank week. Actually, LAST week was the tank week and they had a bye, so I guess its time for a good effort now? Andre Johnson returns with Matt Schwab and there's a chance this Texans team could look like the NFL champions of September. Ron Dayne gets the carries and he has a nice effort once a year or so (this could be it). The Saints couldn't cover Johnson if he rolled his routes in a wheelchair. So which Saints team shows up, the September craptaculars or the guys that were playing in October? And which Texans show up? It may not turn out pretty, but we're rolling the dice on the Cats beloved Texans once again!!
72. Jets +9.5 Pittsburgh **WIN** NYJ 19, PIT 16
Comment: So the Jets actually won, but it was in OT!
Steelers 24, Jets 17
Pittsburgh is having a phenomenal year, but they don't really excel in any one area right now. They aren't the best defense and, surprisingly, the offense isn't ranked as high as I'd expect. That's good news for the Jets, who have a shaky offensive line to defend against blitzburgh. Probably the best thing the Jets have going for them this week is that they are coming off a bye and they are hard to take seriously. Pittsburgh is also not as dominant on the road as they are at home. The Jets are consistent enough that I know this game should not get out of hand. Pittsburgh is going to win this, but its not going to be a double-digit victory.
71. SF +3 StL **LOSS** STL 13, SF 9
Comment: Should have my head examinged for trusting SF, even if they shanked by a mere point.
San Francisco 21, StL 17
With the Rams fat and happy in the win column, the 49ers come off an embarrassing shutout to the Seahawks. Both of these defenses stink and the offenses aren't much better. The 49ers go without Alex Smith but the guy plays like he's hurt anyway (dig) so I'm not going to worry about that. Outside of that drama, the 49ers practices have been crisp this week. Despite getting their first W on the road, the Rams do not travel well. A decent effort here by the 49ers should cover this spread and secure a straight-up W.
70. Carolina +10.0 GB **LOSS** GB 31, CAR 17
COMMENT: Not enough D for big C.
GB 21, Carolina 12
Always bet on the old guy to cover the spread!
****END OF WEEK 10****
69. Seattle -9.5 SF **WIN** Seattle 24, SF 0
Comment: Rumors of my retirement are premature, as Seattle did an exacta on the 24, even if SF failed to score 9 despite multiple possessions starting inside the 35.
Seattle 24, SF 9
How can you like such a lifeless offense on the road on MNF? I don't. Seattle's defense isn't the best, but they are the most consistent and that should spell doom here. I really prefer -9.5 to -10 on this game.
68. Jacksonville +4.5 Tennessee **WIN** Jac 28, Tenn 13
Comment: Tennessee missed players before kickoff...and afterwards.
Tennessee 18, Jacksonville 15
In the game that will shatter the history books for most FGs in a single game with 11 (ok, I think that's a record, who knows?) and for television excitement, I'll take those oh-so-golden 4.5 points on this one baby. Yes, I picked against my beloved Titans. Sure Jacksonville doesn't have a QB, but they only have to contend with 86 yards passing this week. The +4.5 is a key selling point.
67. Cleveland +10 Pittsburgh **WIN** PIT 31, CLE 28
Comment: Nailed this one.
Pittsburgh 34, Cleveland 26
The last time I took 10 points against the Steelers, it turned out rather badly for me. Ok, it was probably my worst freaking call of the year, one that looked horrendous in hindsight, and it was the last game played in the NFL to date. That was, of course, with a dead-armed one legged greased statue at QB. This time, I have the greatest QB ever to play football backing me up, Derek Anderson. Yes, we ride this puppy for yet another week, and hopefully another W. Who was on the DA train first? The Black Cat. Note: I'm not a fan of +9.5 on this one.
66. Chiefs -3 **EVEN** Broncos **LOSS** DEN 27, KC 11
Comment: Ironic the score was a flip of the prediction. Nice rebound effort for Denver after a bad loss.
Chiefs 28, Broncos 12
The Chiefs are without Larry Johnson (who hasn't been that incredible anyway) and we'll eye this value suspiciously, but that seems like it shouldn't matter it what shapes up to be a lopsided divisional matchup. If I take away 10 points for LJ, they still cover this one right? The Chiefs are a well-rested squad -- some of their RBs haven't played in years -- and, as they said on South Park, "Right now you kind of suck, but one day Jay Cutler might be a great QB."
XX. Buffalo -3 **+105** Miami **PUSH** Buf 13, Mia 10
Comment: I was pretty certain a push was going to happen this week, so this doesn't surprise me. That the Bills were so ineffective against that woeful secondary was another mark against JP though.
Buffalo 21, Miami 17
If my "radar" was working well over the last couple weeks, I might have tabbed the Dolphins to do well in that overseas contest after the Giants finished whining about bad fields and long bus rides. Somehow, I missed what was undoubtedly Miami's best effort of the season. But that works against them this week as they face the consistently predictable Bills. Its unlikely they can perform well enough to cover this spread. If you are hoping for a letdown game, I don't think the Bills are in any position to letdown here. This is a young team still proving itself every week.
65. Indianapolis -3.5 **-115** San Diego **LOSS** SD 23, Indy 21
Comment: If consistent means "throws picks every drive". The Colts took their woeful 1st halves to a new low before the predictable comeback took hold. They came dangerously close to covering, but nonetheless -- I am really beginning to hate them! At least they shared in my suffering...
Indianapolis 30, San Diego 17
Indianapolis is the model of consistency.
64. New Orleans -11.5 STL **LOSS** StL 37, NO 29
Comment: Looks like I typed another score in backwards. For StL to get 37, New Orleans must have the most woeful pass rush in the league. Get those bags ready NO!
New Orleans 37, St. Louis 10
Don't expect mercy from the Saints!
END OF WEEK 9
63. Baltimore +9 Pittsburgh -110 **LOSS** Pitt 38, Balt 7
Comment: That was the Ravens "A" game?
Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 13
I see a small amount of value in Baltimore, statistically speaking. While that generally wouldn't qualify for the top 100, its probably worth pointing out that small statistical edges racked up 7-2 for me on sides this weekend as posted on freesportsmonitor.com (9-4 overall, including the loss on the Patriots gamble that went contrary to my data analysis). This one made the top 100, however, because I believe the Ravens are a snake in the grass for the quietly dominating Steelers. Traditionally, the Steelers have their way with the Ravens and matchup very well, but they face one of the most rested teams in the NFL (remember they held out some starters prior to the bye week). The Ravens are preparing to bring out their A game and that should be enough to make this a competitive game and make this a pretty strong play against the spread. The last team to pull this on the Steelers was the Cardinals, and they WON that game. I do think the Steelers, who traditionally play great on Monday night especially on defense, will pull this out but I'm looking for a dog fight.
62. Oakland -3 **-105** Houston **LOSS** Houston 24, Oakland 17
Comment: Oh, there's the Houston defense! Rebounding off the bottom....
Oakland 31, Houston 17
Forget about the offense....what ever happened to that staunch Houston defense? Now dead last in the NFL.
61. Cleveland -1.5 Seattle **WIN** Cleveland 33, Seattle 30
Comment: Seattle found the Cleveland defense to their liking, but it still wasn't enough points to beat Anderson.
Cleveland 27, Seattle 17
The Anderson train keeps rolling...this is a beautiful pick because bad offenses don't travel well...and that is exactly what the Seattle Seahawks have become!
60. Buffalo +1 Cincinnati **WIN** Buffalo 33, Cincinnati 21
Comment: One TD away from the exacta!
Buffalo 26, Cincinnati 21
Buffalo is going to win this game -- the only question being by how many points. Buffalo has once again regained its defensive form with a young roster and I have them 3rd in the league. They'll need it against the Bengals. It doesn't hurt that their impotent offense gets to play the lousy Bengals defense that should have either QB looking more like Carson Palmer than Carson Palmer.
59. New England -5 Indianapolis **LOSS** NE 24, Indy 20
Comment: They won didn't they? I seem to be my own worst enemy lately but its hard to begrudge the pick.
New England 34, Indianapolis 27
I don't think you can overhype this game! Wow, you really can't write this stuff. The NFL hasn't seen a rivalry even close to this since SF and Dallas in the mid-90s. In that case, SF stacked the deck to finally overtake the Cowboys, who self-destructed early in a championship game (yes, Emmitt Smith actually fumbled). The role of the Cowboys is now played by Peyton Manning and the Colts. I feel like I've seen this movie before.
My proprietary ranking system now has the Patriots ranked #1 in offense and #1 in defense (the latter being new). Even better -- the Colts are now #2 in offense and #2 in defense! The defenses are identical with absolutely no edge. On offense, the Patriots hold a TD edge +/- about 5 points. The offense is so good, its almost like they know exactly what the defense will do on every play! (sic) The Patriots are fast starters -- the Colts always seem to be down at halftime to just about everyone -- and that's a big advantage in a game like this. The Patriots can literally score from any possession anywhere on the field at a clip that is just insanely proficient. When Manning has had his defense consistently torched in the past, the Colts have lost (see playoff record prior to 2006). Why would the tied-for-#1 defense be torched? Last week's #1 Defense was the Redskins. They lost 52-7. Any questions?
While its no surprise the Patriots are fielding a better team this year (although THIS good is a bit of a surprise) I'd call it a downright shocker that Indy also has stepped up their game this season. This makes them the perfect foil, a very worthy competitor and rival. In the Championship, the Colts barely came back to beat the Patriots who couldn't catch a pass with their 2nd rate core. While the Colts have improved, the Patriots improved more. The Colts are also mortal. They have a banged up rookie LT. Harrison is gimpy. Addai has had injuries as well. Their are obvious chinks in the Colts armor -- no such problem with the Patriots who are at a historic peak. Also, there is no mystery to the Colts for the Patriots. Stretch play, stretch play, out to Harrison, etc. They've seen this all before. Have the Colts seen Brady with all the multitude of weapons? No, they haven't.
I also don't think, in this game, it'll matter who is at home and who is away. And throw away the points, especially under 7. This is one of the biggest games in history and one of the closest games on paper and ONE of these teams is going to have their day with the other team. That's just the way these things tend to go.
I also question the Colts motivation in this game. They have such a "whatever" attitude about things. I know that's their gee-shucks personality. The Patriots have some of that too, but remember when they overcame the Chargers in the playoffs? There is more emotion on the Pats side. And I wonder if the Colts wouldn't mind going to New England in the playoffs. Perhaps snow and bad weather conditions are the only hope of slowing down the Patriots offense, and the Colts damn well know it. Maybe THIS game really isn't that important to them. There is another game in January and the Colts are all about the post-season. The Patriots want revenge for the Superbowl ring that was stolen from them. They want to be the greatest team in history. All that is on the line. They want this game more, in my estimation.
So in summary, my statistical analysis favors the Colts, with the game running somewhere between a Colts win by 1 to a Patriots win by 7. But I view this as the bookies not wanting New England $$$ and blocking off the Pats. I also don't think its wise to nitpick about points and home field advantage and am eschewing traditional value. Now, I meddled last week and it was a disaster. I am meddling again and this time, I'll get my W.
END OF WEEK 8
58. Houston +9.5 SD **LOSS** SD 35, Houston 10
Comment: When you play with fire, you're gonna get burned.
SD 28, Houston 20
Had this been a regular week in SD, I likely would have played them. But history has not been kind to teams put in this situation. When the fires happened for a Monday night game played in Arizona 4 years ago, a bad SD team played one of their worst games of the season. The season in New Orleans DURING the crises was an underperformance disaster of another very bad team. Now, this is a good SD team that should win the game, but the point of underperformance is my emphasis here. A few players on SD team are not going to be donating their best game, and the score should reflect that.
57. Tennessee -7 Oakland **LOSS** Tenn 13, Oak 9
Comment: Tennessee again does the minimum to get by with a W. I guess I forced this pick a bit.
Tennessee 23, Oakland 14
I promised myself that last week would be the end of the Tennessee/Houston lovefest in 2007, but they just continue to pop up on my radar. While the line is fine on this game, the Titans have gone nearly a month without putting together a complete game. A good effort this week should cover this spread.
56. Washington +16 NE **LOSS** NE 52, Wash 7
Comment: The sad part is that I think that WAS the Pats "B" game.
NE 24, Wash 10
The line is quite reasonable, but I like -- no LOVE -- the twin distractions of the Colts next week after several "big" games coupled with the Red Sox World Series games. This looks like a trap game if there ever was one. While the Redskins offense is on life support and the defense has significant injury concerns, the flipside is a defense that has outperformed the rest of the NFL and an offense that does have a stable of (inconsistent) playmakers on it. I think we've been seeing the Patriots "A" game and all it'll take is a B game to see a Redskins cover!
55. GB +3 **-105** Denver **WIN** GB 19, Denver 13
Comment: The Broncos fumbled in the Red Zone and GB drove the ball 90 yards the other way. While that wasn't the game highlight, it was pivotal when you consider how close the game ended.
Green Bay 28, Denver 18
You know its a good MNF play when I put it out a full week early! As you can see by the projected score, I see the Broncos struggling in the red zone.
54. Cleveland +3 **-105** Stl **WIN** Cleveland 27, StL 20
Comment: Although Cleveland started slow, it was easy $$$ again.
Browns 34, Rams 21
END OF WEEK 7
53. Pats -16.5 Miami **WIN** NE 49, MIA 28
Comment: Payback...is...a...bitch!
Patriots 35, Miami 10
If you are waiting for that inevitable letdown game against a high spread, I would wait a little longer. Remember that 21-0 game where the Dolphins cheated by knowing Brady's calls? If there is anything the Patriots can't tolerate, its someone cheating more than they do. Expect them to lay the wood bigtime in this game. Payback's a bitch.
52. Dallas -9.5 Minnesota **WIN** Dallas 24, Min 14
Comment: Again, prescient in saying "don't bet this over 10"
Dallas 31, Minnesota 17
Dallas is coming off of two very poor games in the wake of the New England insurgency. The Vikings are coming off a game where Adrian Peterson was crowned the best running back ever. The 9.5 points are going to be sexy to many wagerers but I think that's the wrong way to play this. Dallas should get back to winning football and that would mean a fairly dominant performance in this contest. Minnesota's best effort of the season to date wouldn't be enough to cover this spread. If it moves beyond 10, though, I'd take a pass so get this now.
51. Washington -8.5 Arizona **LOSS** WAS 21, AZ 19
Comment: Washington really gave this one away, first with another dumb mistake and then shutting it down completely in the hopes the defense would hang on.
Washington 28, Arizona 12
I regret not playing the Skins against Detroit, as that was a game of fate it seemed. But I can't let Arizona go through DC without wagering on Gibbs winning yet another game in his hall of fame career against this hapless franchise. Valuewise, its not incredible but is over the bar. I know Arizona's defense is bringing the heat, but that's probably the last thing you want to do against the Redskins stable of gamebreakers. You bring the heat, you get burned and I believe the Cardinals will get burned. The Redskins are in 3rd place and if they lose this game, the season is over. I expect them to play with an unusual sense of urgency against the floudering Cardinals.
50. Tennessee -1.5 Houston **WIN** Ten 38, Hou 36
Comment: It was like a Black Cat SUPERBOWL with the 4th quarter going crazy, but in the end the Titans had the cover.
Tennessee 21, Houston 10
It wouldn't be a 2007 Black Cat update without a pick on the Titans and Texans, who I've gone to the well on perhaps a few too many times. So its very appropriate that pick #50 *is* the Titans vs. the Texans! You know I HAD to pick this game. The Texans have lost as much as 7 points vs. the spread as a result of the loss of Johnson and perhaps also because of the diminished effectiveness of Ahman Green since the opener. The Titans are still fighting the good fight week in and week out and only failed to cover last week because of Young's injury. So no doubt -- I'm going Titans with or without Young (but I prefer with!). The Texans just don't have the juice without Johnson making this a very healthy selection against the spread.
49. Buffalo +3 **-105** Baltimore **WIN** Buf 19, BAL 14
Comment: It was Buffalo 9, Baltimore 7 on the way to 19-14. Another on-the-$$$ Black Cat pick.
Buffalo 9, Baltimore 7
While the value here isn't particularly strong (although there is significant value here), I feel this is a very smart play considering the number of starters that Baltimore is resting going into this game and the bye week coupled with the improved Buffalo offense under Trent Edwards. Buffalo is a young but surprisingly competitive defense in the wake of many injuries, and they seem to improve each week. The vibe here is that this game is not terribly important to the Ravens and it is unlikely they will have their A game this Sunday.
48. *POW* TB +2.5 **-105** Detroit **LOSS* DET 23, TB 16
Comment: Very disappointing effort by TB, with too little too late.
TB 28, Detroit 17
Tampa rolls against the lions "defense". Detroit is the NFC's answer to the Cincinnati Bengals, ironically enough.
WEEK 6
2-3-1 (-118.18)
47. Atlanta +4 NYG **LOSS** NYG 31, ATL 10
Comment: Pathetic. And very disappointing. Atlanta totally failed to move the ball after turnovers and dropped balls all night like Vick was still alive. Week 5 & 6 were bad for me yet again in 2007. But I've been through worse and the future is very very bright!
Atlanta 27, NYG 20
Atlanta is not only going to cover this spread, they are a very good bet to win this ballgame. The inconsistent New York Giants are riding a 3 week winning streak, but did I mention that they are inconsistent? Their respectable offense will sputter against the Falcons staunch defense and we may find the Giants defense will rear its uglier side again. I don't mind at all that my first losing week of the season hinges on this outcome...because I won't lose. Although I would grab the 4 while it lasts because I could push on this one in a worst case. I see some additional value in 5 if it moves the other direction.
46. Oakland +9.5 SD **LOSS** SD 28, OAK 14
COMMENT: Oakland hung around the spread throughout the game, but it wasn't the best week to sit LT in your fantasy football league.
SD 24, Oakland 20
Strong play!
45. Baltimore -9.5 Stl **WIN** Baltimore 22, Stl 3
COMMENT: This was a serious matchup problem when the Rams had the ball. Check out the predicted score below!
Baltimore 20, Stl 3
This figures to be a serious matchup problem when the Rams have the ball.
44. Cleveland -4.5 Miami **WIN** Cleveland 41, Fish 31
COMMENT: Cleveland actually scored more than my projected 37 points!
Cleveland 37, Miami 23
The NFL's best QB should have a fun time picking apart the Miami Dolphins in what is my strongest pick of the early games.
43. Houston +6.5 Jacksonville **LOSS** Jac 37, Hou 17
COMMENT: By the time Houston finally got that covering TD, Jacksonville had moved on to higher ground. Houston continues to be worthless without Johnson in the lineup.
Jacks 14, Houston 10
Jacksonville is a very consistent team, so much so that this marginal pick looks like a solid play as a cover. Ahman Green returns, boosting the Johnson-less Texans.
XX. Tennessee +3 **-120** TB **PUSH** TB 13, Ten 10
COMMENT: A push...but I *DID* lose Vince Young in this game and got 50% for 120 yards from the backup. Still, a close defensive fight to the death that hinged on a single play.
Tennessee 14, TB 12
A close defensive fight to the death that'll probably hinge on a single play. I'll take the FG.
END OF WEEK 5
WEEK 5: 5-5 +-31.36
9-1 straight up this week...typical week 5
42. Dallas -10 (-115) Buffalo **LOSS** Dallas 25, Buffalo 24
Dallas 35, Buffalo 12
I had serious doubts that both Green Bay and Dallas would roll this weekend. I figured something jacked up would happen and -- boy -- did Green Bay work at giving that game away. But somehow, that makes me a little more comfortable with the idea that Dallas will handle things on Monday night like they should.
41. Green Bay -3 (-130) Chicago **LOSS** Chicago 27, Dallas 20
Green Bay 30, Chicago 17
I don't see any issue with this being anything other than pure domination by the pack.
40. SF +3.5 Bal **WIN** BAL 9, SF 7
39. SD -1 DEN **WIN** SD 41, DEN 3
38. Tennessee -8 Atlanta **LOSS** TEN 20, ATL 13
Ten 27, Atl 9
I don't have issue with this line, which is pretty solid. But Tennessee has been one of my bread&butter teams and I think Atlanta won't be as sharp this week as it was last week in a stunning win, so I feel it favors Tenn to cover.
37. Jacksonville -2 Kansas City **WIN** JAX 17, KC 7
Jacks 14, KC 9
Jacksonville -2 is at worst a "fair" line although I feel they probably deserve more points. KC's RB and TE always "bring it" against the Chargers but the team should return to "normal" this week.
36. Houston -5 Miami **LOSS** HOU 22, MIA 19
Houston 31, Miami 13
My other "bread & butter" team fell off the map last week, but I expect them to get back on track against Miami. The line should be over 7.
35. Carolina +3 **+105** New Orleans **WIN** CAR 16, NO 13
Carolina 31, New Orleans 28
I think the bookies did a good job in blocking off New Orleans here. Sure, they are going to put a good game together eventually but this appears to me as no gift valuewise. Ultimately, Carolina should be the favored team.
34. NYG -3.5 NYJ **WIN** NYG 35, NYJ 24
Giants 33, Jets 17
You have a team that recorded a dozen sacks last week against a team with a horrible offensive line and fragile QBs. Who are YOU gonna pick?
33. Arizona -3.5 St. Louis **LOSS** ARI 34, STL 31
Arizona 27, StL 13
Yes St. Louis is an unabashed mess. I'm actually tempted to pick StL for an upset here since the Cardinals can't put together 2 in a row and they really pushed hard last week to get that W, but the Cardinals could actually play really poorly and still win by 4-7 points easily here. We know what you get when you can't defend the QB for more than a split second: the Raiders of 2006.
END OF WEEK 4
Week 4: 4-3 (57%, +63.64)
9-5 on sides at freesportsmonitor (64%) (Note: I forgot to post my NE -7.5 bet there)
Its been mostly dogs so far this season, with a few successfully plucked favorites, but that's about to change huge this week....
32. New England -7.5 Cincinnati **WIN** NE 34, CIN 13
New England 45, Cincinnati 31
The "blue chip" stocks did well yesterday, with 3 of the 4 covering (Green Bay, Dallas, Indy, and Pittsburgh). Pittsburgh appeared the more marginal favorite although they greatly disappointed by losing the game outright. So the segment has been very good this week, even though it was a crazy ass week with lots of potential landmines for investors. The #1 blue chipper is the New England Patriots and they were on my radar from the outset of this little play on the favorites. The line is a bit weird. We're getting 7 points on a pretty decent Cincinnati team. Conventional wisdom is to take 7 points when the team doesn't suck ass. However, the consideration here is just how damn good are these Patriots? They are playing like they are nearly invincible to a team like the Bengals. Even given a bit of a performance letdown, there is room for them to cover this spread. If you accept that the Patriots won't lose tonight -- and that's how I feel -- a lot of bettors will tell you to lay whatever points are there. Especially on Monday Night football, where we know deceptively lopsided outcomes are the norm. The predicted score is in the humorous zone and the real score may be something more like 28-20, but it just goes to show how potent these offenses are and how porous the Cincinnati defense has been. If the Patriots don't simply blow the doors off of the Bengals (and they might), I think this game is very likely to land in the 7-14 point win range for the Patriots. Best guess is a win by 9 or 10 points. So they cover but it'll be tight on the spread.
31. Pittsburgh -6 Arizona **LOSS** AZ 21, Pit 14
Pittsburgh 31, Arizona 20
COMMENT: Pittsburgh failed to execute and took too many penalties...one that results in a punt return
30. Houston -3 Atlanta **-105** **LOSS** Atl 26, Hou 16
Houston 27, Atlanta 7
COMMENT: Injuries taking their toll on Houston?
Another week, another Houston pick.
29. GB -1.5 Minnesota **WIN** GB 23, Min 16
COMMENT: Don't underestimate these guys
Green Bay 17, Minnesota 3
28. Miami -4 Oakland **LOSS** Oak 35, Mia 17
COMMENT: Think I was burned by Culpepper's revenge
Miami 31, Oakland 7
27. Dallas -12 StL **WIN** Dallas 35, Stl 7
COMMENT: Considering the "7" was a return, I nailed this one
Dallas 45, StL 0 (If Jackson Plays)
26. Indy -9.5 Denver **WIN** Indy 38, Den 20
COMMENT: Another win from the top of the pile
Indy 42, Denver 9
OMG I PICKED INDY! YOU BASTARDS!!
***END OF WEEK 3***
WEEK 3 7-3-1 (70%)
25. Tennessee +4 NO **WIN** Ten 31, NO 14 (24-14 before INT for TD to seal game...)
COMMENT: I think I already said it in the pregame write-up.
Prediction: Tennessee 23, NO 13
I heard that one of the Sirius NFL guys said there was a 0% chance the Tennessee Titans would win this game. Really? 0% huh? Just because you wanna win, doesn't mean you are gonna win. Look, I get it. I know there is no team due for a huger rebound than the New Orleans Saints. Their performance over the past 2 weeks is best described as "pathetic". But the Titans are no easy mark and I don't believe the Saints can outscore their lousy defense. The Titans have given me 2 wins against the spread and I won't be shy about going for 3. Not only do I think the Titans can cover, but I expect Jeff Fisher's crew to get me a W (Sound familiar? I last said that about GB. They won...). As far as I'm concerned, there is one authority on NFL handicapping in September and its *^*(%&^$&* me. Yeah, I know there are doubters out there, but longtime BW people will tell you all I do is win...and win...and win. Tell Adam the Black Cat has crossed his path.
24. Dallas +3 Chicago **WIN** Dal 34, Chicago 10
Dallas 20, Chicago 14
23. Jax +3.5 Denver **WIN** Jax 23, Den 14
Jax 10, Denver 7
22. Washington -3.5 NYG **LOSS** NYG 24, WAS 17
COMMENT: Perhaps halftime is too early to bench the starters.
Wash 31, NYG 13
21. *SURPRISE UPDATE* Green Bay +6 SD **WIN** GB 31, SD 24
COMMENT: The Pack is back, beating SD despite Rivers completing nearly all of his throws.
Obviously I was reluctant to play this one, but I actually favor GB to win. Ever thought you'd get Brett Farve at home +6? LOL, there was a day when....but never mind that. While I loathe the poor matchup in the running game, Green Bay is clearly in the top half of the league this season and this is just too many points. There is room for the Pack to play a little worse this week and still cover the spread.
xxx. Minnesota +3 KC **-115** **PUSH** KC 13, MIN 10
COMMENT: Minnesota nearly pulled away but a TD was called back mistakenly. I should have gotten a W here.
Minnesota 24, KC 9
Minnesota has a real nice ground defense and all KC has is a running game. I like the more veteran presence of Holcomb, who's not that bad a QB. They were doing better than expected with that other guy anyhow. While KC is clearly not a playoff team, I'm not ready to write them off as a total loss yet. Still, I find value here and the matchup is very favorable to Minnesota.
20. Tampa Bay -3.5 St Louis **WIN** TB 24, STL 3
COMMENT: It was a shutout game for a while...
Tampa 13, St. Louis 0
Write it down: St. Louis stinks again. Their defense sucks. Their offense is crippled. And I'm on the JEFF GARCIA bandwagon! Yes sir, Tampa is back and I like the value here. If Tampa is as improved as they seemed last week, this will be an easy win. That's a big if though, but I'll play it since Tampa is clearly good enough to support the 3.5 points.
19. Arizona +7.5 Baltimore **-105** **WIN** BAL 26, ARI 23
COMMENT: The return of the Cardiac Cards?
Arizona 13, Baltimore 12
I continue to get this creeping feeling that Arizona may be improved this year. Leinart looked much better in the 2nd outing of the season and they run the ball a lot anyway. This line gives a lot of room for Baltimore to be worse than we think. The offense is struggling again and I don't think it matters who is under center. Between Baltimore being worse than perceived or the Cardinals improving, I see some value playing this line.
18. Houston +6.5 Indianapolis **WIN** INDY 30, HOU 24
COMMENT: Another ugly win against the Colts.
Houston 10, Indianapolis 7
Not a lot of respect for the Texans here and I'm still unconvinced by a Colts team that blew out an overrated Saints team and squeeked by last week. Houston's defense is taking form and they upgraded at QB. Yes, I realize their most potent weapon is sidelined but don't expect it to destroy this team completely. Its heart & soul is defense, not offense, and this QB played with worse receivers in Atlanta and did ok. I think a FG spot would have done the trick for the bookies valuewise.
17. Buffalo +16.5 NE **UGLY LOSS** NE 38, BUF 7
COMMENT: Well, saying they'd only lose by 16 wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement, you know...
New England 39, Buffalo 23
New England has less motivation after last week's satisfying SNF victory. Buffalo is a mess, but I believe they underperformed last week and it'll get slightly better. I think this line peaks at -12.
16. Detroit +5.5 Philadelphia **LOSS** Phi 56, Det 21
COMMENT: Obviously, McNabb wanted to make a statement today. I have a tough time on these games where my opponent scores 50+ points.
Detroit 24, Philadelphia 10
The team of brotherly love is in trouble again, and lets lay them before they right the ship. McNabb threw so badly in the game Monday night, even the Redskins couldn't catch the ball. When Kitna said they'd win 10, he should have added the word "straight". I've been dying to put them on the board, and I finally get my chance. I believe that this game is closer to a pick 'em, so I'm picking the Lions to roll.
END OF WEEK 2
15. Miracle on Monday: Skins +6.5 Eagles **EVEN $$$ SPECIAL** **WIN*** Skins 20, Eagles 12
COMMENT: Can someone please tell the MNF crew to just SHUTUP!?! I swear, they talked less when Joe T. was there. Redskins demonstrated that icing the kicker as time expires is a really stupid idea (note: that isn't what the broncos did...they called a "do-over", not a timeout) McNabb played a really bad game, helping the Redskins secure a straight-up win.
No BC score today - the computer likes the Eagles due to a floating point error. You can credit this W to me.
Saints? No. Bears? No. Giants? No. Cardinals? No. Ravens? No. Chargers? No. Will someone, SOMEONE, go on prime time television and WIN, wait no, COVER in a game this season? Someone? Anyone? How about...THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS! Over the last two seasons, the Redskins posted 2 miracle wins over the Dallas Cowboys. Who can forget the two TDs Gibbs dialed up on Monday night in the waning minutes as the talking heads chattered about the Cowboys dominant team. Who can forget the blocked FG and penalty that setup the Redskins win last season? I believe the Eagles can be had up the gut and this is what the Redskins LOVE to do! Run Portis Run! I believe that defense will regain its 2005 form and play lights out football. I believe that 7 points is too many points! I believe in the Redskins on MNF! This is a big big big divisional game and I think you'll see the REAL Redskins, not the ones that muddled through a game against Miami gutting out a win.
14. KC +12 Chicago **WIN** Chicago 20, KC 10
COMMENT: About what you'd expect.
Chicago 12, KC 6
I know this isn't a popular selection, but when you consider that Chicago is a 7 point dog to SD and a 12 point favorite to KC, something's not quite right. I'd cut this line in about half to get something more realistic. Play the value!
13. Houston +6.5 Carolina **BLOWOUT WIN** Houston 31, Carolina 14
Comment: Wow, one my research pegged right. The Houston bandwagon is growing. This one headfaked for the Carolina Panthers early.
BC Score Machine: Houston 17, Carolina 13
I wasn't all that wowed by Carolina's win against St. Louis. They were the recipient of multiple Steven Jackson fumbles and had an easy time ramming the ball down the Rams throat at the end. It was ok, but not that impressive. I figure Houston to be a decent team with some serious upside, so I'm liking this line. Figure it to be a down to the wire contest.
12. NO -3.5 TB **BAD LOSS** TB 31, NO 14
COMMENT: Another puzzling disappearance by NO offense, and the defense is looking woeful.
BC Score Machine: NO: 27, TB 21
I know there is a disturbing pattern to my picks this week (Tennessee game aside and ironically, my computer thinks I should play Indy), but it won't make history to have all the home dogs bark in spite of what happened last season. I take each game on its own, on its own merit. New Orleans was DEMOLISHED last weekend. My computer, which I swear has become some kind of sentient life form because I no longer have any clue how it comes up with some of these things, considered it the worst performance of the weekend and perhaps the worst performance in the history of football (hyperbole there). I have a power rating of 1 for NO here and let me give you a hint here: 1 isn't the highest. So yes, they STUNK. I get that. But teams have their good days and bad days and no doubt there will be better days ahead, probably this Sunday. I don't buy that their offense is subpar. I still think its in the top half and probably more like the top 5 or 10, so they are an explosion waiting to happen. Watching tape on the tampa bay bucs, they aren't bad. Despite a couple gaffes, their special teams caught my eye. The defense looked ok and the offense is competant. What I'm banking on here is that the Saints defensively had trouble with stopping Addai. TB has no explosive rushing threat, and this is a problem. On the other side of the ball, I liked TB's secondary but they lack a pass rush, which could prove deadly this weekend. They also seemed weak against the rushing attack. So I like this matchup for the Saints even though the Bucs don't figure to be that easy a mark.
11. Seattle -3 Arizona **EVEN $$$ SPECIAL** **LOSS** Arizona 23, Seattle 20
COMMENT: I was afraid Seattle would win but not cover. In this case, they had the decency to lose the game outright after pushing the spread at -3. Arizona looked a lot more competant than last week. Arizona was blowing this game bigtime before they uncharacteristically pulled a W out of their hat.
BC Score Machine: Seattle 17, Arizona 10
This to me is a pretty classic 7 point road game. All preseason hype aside, Seattle is winning this division. They won a PLAYOFF game last year and they had you me and Bobby Jo at QB, RB, and left tackle for most of the season. Seattle KNOWS how to win games. Arizona doesn't. Last week, they had too many bad plays, too many errant throws, simply don't look crisp as an offense. I don't think there is any way they win this game, so at worst I'm looking at a 1 or 2 point cover IMHO. The running game of the Cardinals was better, but not explosive. And they made a pretty bad SF offense look competant and failed to disrupt them during the entire game. I hate to pick games uncreatively and I feel like I'm continuing to fall on some of the same teams as last week, but that just seems to be the way to go here.
10. Cincy -6.5 Cleveland -110 **LOSS** Cleveland 51, Cincinnati 45
Comment: WTF??? They must have known the Bengals defensive calls.
BC Score Machine: Cincinnati 31, Cleveland 14
Last year, Cincinnati outscored Cleveland 65-17, including a 34-17 ROAD victory in week 2. And the Bengals are BETTER. Matchup wise, you have an aggressive defense that forced 5 turnovers against a turnstile offensive line and one or two QBs, one of which is clearly unprepared to start in the NFL. Watching last week's game, Cleveland is incompetant in all 3 phases. This went WAY WAY WAY beyond the quarterback position. And the Steelers just happened to be the lucky team on the field -- they did very little to provoke it.
9. New England -3.5 SD -110 **BLOWOUT WIN** NE 38, SD 14
Comment: Typical lopsided SNF affair.
BC Score Machine: New England 24, San Diego 10
You could justify 3.5 points here on home field advantage alone. If we accept these two teams were even last season, the return of Randy Moss alone is worth a minimum of 4 points. When he was with the Vikings, you'd just pen 7 in to most of their games because you knew he was good for a quick score sometime during the game. As good as the Patriots were last season, I think they might be even BETTER now. That's downright scary. I saw some signs of the Chargers team being "Norved" last week. Norv has never beaten a team better than his own, except when he was the Raiders where ANY win met that criteria. He'll beat lesser teams, assuming no special teams gaffes, but not better ones. That's always been his forte. The Chargers defense was impressive last week, but just two weeks ago they were carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey by Leinart, who stunk last night incidentally. I think their secondary can, and will, be had on Sunday night. The value here is undeniable. The bookies set this line too low. I also think if this were a week 3 or 4 matchup, the Chargers would have a better chance. As it is, their running game is out of sync, their QB is off to a rough start, and they don't know what to expect from the Patriots offensively. They come off of the most physical game in the NFL last week, that being SD/Chicago, and that itself may take its toll considering that players really aren't in true football shape yet. The Patriots played in a laugher. As for the tape scandal, there is no way NO WAY the Patriots let themselves get embarrassed on the home field this Sunday. Won't happen. And they are going to do their damn best to make sure that lost 1st round pick is the 32nd in the NFL draft.
8. Tennessee +7 Indianapolis -110 **WIN** Indy 22, TEN 20
Comment: It wasn't pretty with the Titans falling behind, but I think we caught Indy on a letdown finally.
BC Score Machine: Indianapolis 23, Tennessee 17 (Tennessee
guy tackled on 1 yard line as time expires to end game)
You think I got a mad on against Indy, don't you? I don't. Last year was last year, and you ego-centric Indy fans, this pick ain't about YOU. No, its about the TENNNESSEE TITANS, and -- more specifically, JEFF FISHER. Now, I've said repeatedly if ever there was a team that wouldn't play by the "rules" with the Colts and trade pass for pass, they could be beat. Well, Jeff beat them last year. And he's faced offensive MONSTERS like the Colts many times, including several very classic and memorable games against the Rams and their "Greatest Show on Turf". Jeff WILL pound the Colts, as he did the Jaguars for 300 yards. They WILL be physical, and finally -- we have a coach who 100% understands how you beat the Colts AND WILL DO IT. 7 points is pretty much a great team vs. crap team line, its almost a forfeit to the gods of luck by the bookie. This doesn't give the Titans nearly enough credit. I also want to circle the man playing LEFT TACKLE for the Colts. He was complete roadkill in the first half of the New Orleans game, and I didn't watch him in the 2nd half. He was backing up so much you could hear the truck's "beep beep" sounds. I think the Titans are going to have a field day with the rookie. Peyton will be yelling "uh-oh" on every snap. Finally, in their last few games, the Colts have played: BALTIMORE and their amazing defense, the nemesis that is the Patriots, Chicago for the freaking SUPERBOWL, and a huge primetime 1st-game-of-the-season opener against a top superbowl favorite of 2007. NOW, you want them to get all pumped up for the Titans? No, can't be done. This is a letdown opportunity no matter how Coach Dungy tries to sell it. There is something Patriot-like (if you get my drift) about the Colts league-leading home field advantage too, so I like them on the road.
END OF WEEK 1: 4-3-1 57% (Net +$68.77 on $100 bets)
7. NYG +6.5 Dallas Dallas 45, NYG 35 ***LOSS***
My pick board is lit up like a christmas tree so I feel no qualms at pulling out another pick to add to a hugely successful 4-2 opening weekend that, frankly, I put a ton of work into making those selections. These teams exited 2006 neck-and-neck and have since headed two different paths. Dallas hit the reset button on coaching whereas the Giants kept the status quo. While they are without Barber, that is hardly a surprise since he announced it almost a full year ago. Jacobs is a freaking monster and Manning has put in a lot of work this year -- and that is on top of a fairly strong start in 2006 before fading away. Dallas will miss Terry Glenn, although Romo hardly uses him anyway. I think this is another dogfight of a game and while I don't have high expectations for the 2007 Giants and an o-line that looks shaky at best, I think they'll show up tonight. I don't think I'll be making picks tomorrow but, for what its worth (code for "unofficial opinion"), I favor Cincy **WIN** and my gut says Leinart and co. **PUSH** will have a nice opening even though I don't have any numbers to back that up.
6. Chicago +7 SD SD 14, Chicago 3 **LOSS**
Chicago 31, SD 30
I don't like the Bears D coordinator on the other side, but I feel a TD is a good spot for a defensive minded team. Defenses travel well.
5. Seattle -6 TB Seattle 20, TB 6 **WIN**
Seattle 21, TB 14
Seattle is the best value of any favorite on the board. They had a crappy year last season but no reason to think they won't regain some of their form. TB upgrades an impotent offense with Garcia, but don't expect everything to get fixed overnight.
4. Houston -3 KC -115 Houston 20, KC 3 **WIN**
Houston 28, KC 20
The official team of Sirius radio fans is in Sirius trouble. You'd be hard pressed to find a guy who thinks KC is going to improve this season. Houston, on the other hand, I think they got a coupe in their Atlanta transaction and they could be the NO team of 2007. The way I see it, this line gives me a fair shake with serious upside potential on the Texans and Sirius downside on the Chiefs. This kind of setup has always been at the heart of Mr. September!
3. Tennessee +7 Jacksonville -110 Ten 13, Jags 10 **WIN**
Jags 27, Titans 21
If you have 2 QBs, you have no QBs. Well, in this case, at least they kept 1. Jacksonville has stayed at the top for a long time but this late turmoil looks like a lock to bring them down a peg. I don't like a divided locker room for an opener -- it rarely produces wins. What I do like is the instant impact of Young on his team, quite impressive. What will an offseason mean to him? Tennessee is a hot early season play in my book and we'll try to cash in right from the gun. The value on this is solid.
xxx. Miami +3 Washington -110 Wash 16, Miami 13 **PUSH**
Mianmi 24, Washington 13 **REVISED** Miami 21, Wash 20
The Redskins are my favorite NFL team, but that doesn't play much of a role when it comes to the Top 100. The Redskins have the unfortunate first week draw of being the only NFC team to host a team from the dominant conference. This line gives too much respect to a Redskin team that doesn't have sweeping changes (arguably a good thing) but finished the season flat on its back. The Dolphins defense was dominant towards the end of last season (knowing the snap count helps, I hear) and they feature free agent Trent Green and offensive wiz Cam Cameron. Green is a guy who can digest a complicated playbook and execute it to perfection, and it doesn't hurt that he's also an ex-Redskin who might have a minor grudge. At worst, he'll be as effective as Joey Harrington and he could figure to be an impact free agent that is slipping under the radar. While massive improvement in all phases of the game are possible, that's about what it'll take to make this a pretty good line for Redskin backers. I'll let other people take that risk. The Dolphins are historically a great week 1 team. One year, I recall, they beat a strong Broncos team against impossible odds in week 1....
2. Buffalo +3 Denver ***EVEN MONEY SPECIAL*** Denver 15, Buffalo 14 **WIN**
Buffalo 27, Denver 17 *REVISED* Denver 23, Buffalo 21
As my friends over at NFL Sirius Radio would be quick to point out, Buffalo kept 12 games within 3 points last season. Clear out a couple pushes, that's over 70% wins. And Buffalo is a team that simply CRUSHED the NFL late in the season. Their defense was smothering, the offense was moving the chains, this team was HOT HOT HOT. Meanwhile, Denver was running kindergarden class with their overhyped Elway Jr.
If you want to win the first game of the season, who better to have on your schedule than the DENVER BRONCOS. They actually managed to lose a game to the Miami Dolphins a couple years ago when the Dolphins were like the gum on the bottom of the Raiders shoes. Last year, Buffalo faced the New England Patriots and hung 2 in the opener -- how's that for a good showing?
Now, I'll be honest. When you talk about a team that has lost something in the offseason, Buffalo probably goes to the top of the class. Willie on offense, Fletcher on defense. That's a heavy hit. The only hope is that since Fletcher went to the REDSKINS -- the most hopeless team ever to dabble in free agency -- perhaps he will never play a good down again. So a casual nod to the regression that probably sets up a juicy +3 line, but THIS much? Only if the rookie RB fumbles every snap and they field 10 men on defense. Buffalo had room to slip defensively last year as well as they were playing, and its not like Willie is LT. This is still a .500 team with some upside that AT WORST has about even prospects with the Broncos going into the season. And we know the Broncos aren't quite the same team on the road. Speaking of Sirius, those guys report that JP is looking OK and has put the work in this season to take another step further. He may not have the longterm upside as Elway Jr, but I'm willing to bet he still has the lead going into the week 1 turn. Too bad he has only 1 killer receiver and that dude will be smothered by Champ. Still, it ain't much better on the other side of the ball since Walker is the only option.
Finally, I've always felt that if you can get 3 points at home on opening day -- unless you REALLY suck -- you're a good bet to cover.
PICK #1 (in a deep booming voice)
1. New Orleans +6 Indianapolis (-110) **BAD LOSS**
WRAP UP: This is why it is the Top 100 and not the Top 1. The way I see it, the best I can do this season is 99-1. 3 points? 3 FUCKING points offensively? At least I have Reggie Wayne on my fantasy team as some small measure of consolation.
Alright, didn't see that coming. If nothing else, this is testamount to how worthless the preseason really is. Not that I put much weight into it, but didn't Brees complete like every throw of the preseason? I take pride in my teams keeping it close but that's the sin of primetime games -- they rarely end close. Where you lose by 2 or 22, the result is the same. The Colts are eating my lunch, no doubt about it. But the weekend is still young and there are many games to be won. The best is ahead, I promise you.
********
We begin where we left off last season....betting against the Indianapolis Colts! Nobody ever lost money betting against last season's champs early in the following season. What can I say about the Indianapolis Colts? You want to crown them, then crown them. But they ARE what we said they WERE, and the AFC and Bears let them off the hook. Dennis Green imitations aside, the Colts didn't exactly answer all of those nagging questions about their run defense in the post season. Out of ego or stupidity, every one wanted to match their QB against Manning at the expense of some pretty potent running attacks in the 2nd half of games. I'm still all over anyone who can (and will) run the ball against these chumps. 10 yards up the middle is easier then a 10 yard out even if it *is* Manning throwing the 10 yard out.
Now lets talk a second about the New Orleans Saints. These boys are PRIMETIME baby. The game plans and execution of the game plans last season were just breathtaking. Remember that emotional game over Atlanta last season? Remember the way they TRASHED the Cowboys like some high school team just as Romo was annointed to the Pro Bowl? Who BETTER than these Saints to take a month of preperation, step into the spotlight of the NFL's first game of season, and take their 9th home game in the confines of the INDOOR stadium of the Indianapolis Colts?
I like to take the better QB in week 1. But I'll tell you, I have no qualms of taking Brees over Manning, particularly considering that Manning's offensive line might be a wee bit wobbly now. There is no Rhodes so its all on the very capable shoulders of Addai. Defensive losses have continued on what was already a pretty average defensive team. Even going back to last year, I don't have the Colts as being better than the NFC Championship Game-appearing Saints, who lost to what probably was last year's best team. So to talk value, this is a 3 pointer and I'm getting 6. PLAY IT!
2006 Top 100 Picks
TOP 100 PICKS: 58-42-4 (58%)
Last Week: 4-2 (66%)
Last 9 Weeks: 30-17 (64%)
Week by week: 10 wins, 3 loses, 3 draw (77% winning weeks)
"MR. SEPTEMBER", 60% 2006/66% 2005/66% 2004 will continue to crush the opening month's lines for the 4th year on Bettorsworld. (last year I uncharacteristically tanked week 2 but came back by sweeping weeks 3 & 4)
