The Black Cat's 128K Picks of 2015
Week 2: 3-4 (Stars: 9-14)
Week 3: 4-3 (Stars: 14-9)
Week 4: 5-2-1 (Stars: 14-9)
Week 5: 4-3-1 (Stars: 14-8)
Week 6: 3-4 (Stars: 10-15)
Week 7: 6-3 (Stars: 24-7 77%)
Week 8: 3-3-1 (Stars: 11-10)
Week 9: 5-2 (Stars: 18-5 78%)
Week 10: 4-5 (Stars: 15-12)
Week 11: 3-3-1 (Stars: 6-12)
Overall: 40-32-4 55% (Stars: 135-101 57%)
Favorites: 19-18-3 51%
Dogs: 21-14-1 60%
Hilton Contest: 33-20-2 (Last Week: 2-2-1) 62%
GOW Contest: 6-5 55%
Comment: A lot of games went off the prediction charts last week, so let's see if it moderates in week 12.
Week 12 : Gobble Gobble
77. Carolina +1.5 Dallas (5 Stars GW)
Romo won last week, but he didnít exactly set the world on fire. If the Cowboys canít run the ball much better than the Redskins complete failure, Romo is going to be in for a long day.
Panthers 26, Cowboys 23
78. Green Bay -8.5 Chicago (3 Stars)
Every Thanksgiving I take value points in a lopsided game just to see the team getting points get killed. Iím not falling for it this year!
Packers 34, Bears 23
79. Detroit -2.5 Philadelphia (3 Stars)
Against Captain Butt Fumble in their annual Thanksgiving spectacle, I expect the Lions to win a winnable game despite value lacking in the line.
Lions 28, Eagles 22 (OT)
80. Baltimore +1.5 Cleveland (3 Stars)
While Qb looms as a big issue for both teams, that Cleveland defense is a feast for any Qb.
Ravens 26, Browns 25
81. San Francisco +10.5 Arizona (3 Stars)
It is possibly the worst NFL offense against one of the better defenses, and the Cardinal offense is clicking, but Iím going to ride the 49ers to cover once again. The Cardinal defense has been showing some chinks lately, enough to make me think it might not be a total blowout even if the odds of the 49ers winning seem remote at best..
Cardinals 27, SF 20
82. NY Jets -3.5 Miami (3 Stars)
It is hard to underestimate the Dolphins. ..
Jet 27, Dolphins 20
83. Minnesota PK Atlanta (3 Stars)
In a battle of RBs, Peterson has a much easier path to victory than facing the Vikings staunch defense.
Minnesota 23, Atlanta 20
84. Cincinnati -7 St Louis (2 Stars)
Now out of prime time, the real Bengals return against a Rams team slouthing through distractions.
Bengals 26, Rams 17
85. New England +3 Denver (2 Stars)
It is a fair line, but a fair line wonít scare me off taking the Patriots against the Broncos without Manning.
Broncos 19, Patriots 24
86. Pittsburgh +3.5 Seattle (2 Stars)
Looks like this one could go down to the wire, as it looks really close.
Steelers 21, Seahawks 24 (OT)
70. San Francisco +13.5 Seattle (5 Stars) LOSS
The 49ers may have the worst offense in football, but THAT just means they have nowhere to go but up. The Hawks are extraordinarily average to be laying that many points and have been declining, not improving. Yet they still command an outsized line? With Kaepernick finished, the door is open for Blaine Gabbert to compete for the position.
49ers 19, Hawks 25
71. Minnesota -1 Green Bay (5 Stars) LOSS
The public feeling is that the Packers are going to win a game sooner or later, but the Vikings are the better team and project to win this critical divisional game. The excuses are also piling up for the Packers, as Rodgers enters the game ailring.
Vikings 25, Packers 19
72. Cincinnati +4.5 Arizona (3 Stars) **WIN**
Carson Palmer was already drooling about the opportunity to stick it to his former team on national TV, but I have to wonder how easy thatíll be with the Bengals already laying an egg against Houston last week. They are too good to lay an egg again this week, arenít they?
Bengals 23, Cardinals 25
73. New England -7 Buffalo (3 Stars) PUSH
This is a very fair line statistically, but you got to give me an unfair line to go against the Patriots this year, particularly on national TV against the hated Rex Ryan.
Patriots 33, Bills 23
74. Carolina -7 Washington (2 Stars) **WIN**
I simply do not believe in the Redskins against a quality team. If they beat Carolina? Yeah, I WOULD like that, but it isnít going to happen.
Panthers 29, Redskins 20
75. Chicago +1 Denver (2 Stars) LOSS
Chicago has it rolling, may get their best RB returning this week, and Denver is starting who again for Peyton? Thatís got to hurt a little, even if Peyton wasnít playing well.
Chicago 22, Denver 19
76. Kansas City -3 San Diego (1 Star) **WIN**
KC has it rolling now and sees blood on the dance floor with the Broncos troubles.
Chiefs 29, Chargers 25
61. Arizona +3 Seattle (5 Stars GOW) **WIN**
A -3 line rates teams as even and these teams are not even, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. This is an easy call and obvious value.
Cardinals 24, Seahawks 22
62. NY Giants +7.5 New England (4 Stars) **WIN**
Superman has kryptonite, and the Patriots have Eli Manning. While it might take magic to keep the Giants from slicing and dicing the Giants non-defenseÖteams have covered against the Patriots this season.
Patriots 29, Giants 26
63. Pittsburgh -6.5 Cleveland (3 Stars) **WIN**
Obviously there are serious Qb issues that can impact the game, but the Steelers have been battling serious injuries all season and as long as the best receiver in the NFL is out there, someone will get him the ball. Also note the defense has been getting quietly healthy and the Steelers have been the Browns something like 26 of the past 30 meetings.
Steelers 28, Cleveland 18
64. Cincinnati -11 Houston (3 Stars) LOSS
Bengals 30, Texans 16
65. Washington -1 New Orleans (3 Stars) **WIN**
The Saints defense is horrible, and they win as often in Washington as Obamacare repeal bills.
Redskins 26, Saints 24
66. Philadelphia -6 Miami (3 Stars) LOSS
The most expensive running team will face the most expensive defensive lineman. My money is on the running backs.
Eagles 28, Dolphins 18
67. Baltimore -4.5 Jacksonville (3 Stars) LOSS
Flacco will slice and dice this easy defense, which is why this guy is overpaid.
Ravens 29, Jaguars 22
68. Green Bay -10.5 Detroit (2 Stars) LOSS
Facing perhaps the worst defense in the league, the Packers should win easily.
Packers 32 Lions 20
69. Oakland -3 Minnesota (1 Star) LOSS
The Vikings play poorly on the West Coast and there are Qb concerns. The Raiders offense figures to be a real test for the top-tier Vikings defense.
Oakland 24, Vikings 20
54. Carolina +2.5 Green Bay GOW (5 Stars) **WIN**
The Packers passing struggles are for real, and so are the Panthers.
Panthers 26, Packers 22
55. San Francisco +7 Falcons (4 Stars) **WIN**
One must consider that the 49ers have gotten stronger at the Qb position without Kap.
49ers 24, Falcons 22
56. Buffalo -3 Miami (4 Stars) **WIN**
On Sirius NFL Radio, it has been said the Dolphins would respond to the coaching change with a couple big winsÖand then they would return to being the Dolphins. The words have proven prophetic.
Bills 27, Dolphins 20
57. Minnesota -1.5 St. Louis (3 Stars) **WIN**
In the battle of the RBs, the veteran will assert himself after a relatively quiet few games.
Vikings 22, Rams 17
58. Denver -5 Indianapolis (3 Stars) LOSS
A strong running game vs. the Colts. The Colts fire their offensive coordinator after an overtime gameÖwhy? The Colts are a very poor team and Denver is at the top.
Broncos 27, Colts 19
59. Tampa Bay +1.5 NY Giants (2 Stars) LOSS
This could be another close one. Even the rookie might like playing this Giants defense.
Bucs 28, Giants 27
60. Philadelphia -3 Dallas (2 Stars) **WIN**
The Cowboys continue to tread water, and now they start to drownÖ
Philadelphia 24, Cowboys 20
Objects in the mirror may be closer than they appear.
47. Tampa Bay +7 Atlanta (5 Stars) **WIN**
Donít expect too much defense in this one.
Tampa Bay 30, Atlanta 31
48. Cleveland +6 Arizona (5 Stars) LOSS
Cleveland will exploit Carson Palmerís weakness: he will have a hard time deciding who to throw to with everyone on the field wide open!
Cleveland 24, Cardinals 27
49. Oakland +3 NY Jets (4 Stars) **WIN**
The Raiders are starting to look very mediocre, which is high praise.
Raiders 23, Jets 24
50. Chicago +1 Minnesota (3 Stars) LOSS
The Bears RB has more fantasy points this season than Peterson, and their QB better be able to outplay his opposition today if he wants to start in the NFL.
Bears 23, Vikings 20
51. New Orleans -3 NY Giants (2 Stars) PUSH
Both teams have massive issues, but this game means more to the Saints.
Saints 30, Giants 26
52. Indianapolis +6.5 Carolina (2 Stars) **WIN**
The Colts run the trick play againÖ.and it goes for a TD!
Colts 25, Carolina 29
53. Tennessee +4 Houston (2 Stars) LOSS
As banged up as Tennessee is, Houstonís issues run far deeper.
Tennessee 21, Houston 23
37. Tampa Bay +3 Washington (GOW 5 Stars) **WIN**
Could be rock bottom for the Redskins if the Bucs find some D.
Buccaneers 20, Redskins 22
38. Kansas City Chiefs -3 Pittsburgh (5 Stars) **WIN**
Not sure Landry Jones will find that magic twice.
Chiefs 22, Steelers 17
40. Tennessee +6 Atlanta (4 Stars) **WIN**
Atlantaís defense not quite PRIMETIME, so Iím taking the points.
Falcons 27, Titans 24
41. Carolina -3 Philadelphia (4 Stars) **WIN**
Think the Panthers are fat & happy with their statement win? Not so fast. They are still better than the Eagles!
Panthers 22, Eagles 15
42. Jacksonville +4 Buffalo (3 Stars) **WIN**
Too many injuries in Buffalo, Iíll take the healthier team.
Jaguars 20, Bills 24
43. Baltimore +8.5 Arizona (3 Stars) **WIN**
Itís a rare primetime moment for Arizona, but expect Baltimore to at least board the bus.
Ravens 23, Cardinals 31
44. Indianapolis -4.5 New Orleans (3 Stars) LOSS
Expect the Colts to respond to their SNF humiliation with a cover.
Colts 30, Saints 23
45. Detroit +1 Minnesota (2 Stars) LOSS
Iíll take the team that can complete a pass.
Detroit 27, Vikings 24
46. Patriots -7.5 Jets (2 Stars) LOSS
The Patriots have at least one more week in them to punish the hated Jets.
Patriots 33, Jets 25
31. New England -9 Indianapolis (GOW 5 Stars) LOSS
Inidanapolisí defense is still terrible and they face Tom Brady on the warpath for revenge. Iím not sure how many points it would take to scare me off this one, but more than 8 for sure.
Patriots 41, Colts 20
32. Minnesota -3.5 Kansas City (4 Stars) **WIN**
The Chiefs may have to pass now. That could get ugly!
Vikings 30, Chiefs 22
33. Denver -3.5 Cleveland (4 Stars) LOSS
Apparently Clevelandís defense moved to Denver. Manning may look like Manning against them too.
Broncos 27, Browns 21
34. Tennessee -2 Miami (3 Stars) LOSS
While firing the coach is frequently the cure of all that ills for a little while, the Dolphins Suh-backed defense is bad and I donít see that changing. Tennessee has been respectable and being rated slightly below the Dolphins in this matchup seems pessimistic.
Titans 28, Dolphins 20
35. NY Giants +5.5 Philadelphia (3 Stars) LOSS
The Eagles have never been a great home team especially when the Giants are involved, and this figures to be a very tight ballgame.
Giants 25, Eagles 27
36. Chicago +3.5 Detroit (3 Stars) **WIN**
Detroit is terrible, worse than Chicago on both sides of the ball. Iím not sure what kind of a crowd they can draw. With the Lions with their backs to the wall and Chicago being Chicago, the value isnít enogh to load up in my opinion.
Bears 21, Lions 22
37. Cincinnati -3 Buffalo (3 Stars) **WIN**
Buffalo is extremely beatup and this was obvious last week. It hasnít gotten better so I think the Bengals get another one.
Bengals 28, Bills 22
23. NE -8.5 Dallas (5 Stars GOW) **WIN**
Dallas has been outstanding at hanging in games with their depleted team, but the Patriots have made it clear they will destroy everything in their way for these 4 games Brady won the right to play in. This being the last of the series, I think this falls in ďvery rare opportunityĒ status as the Patriots complete the completely dominant sweep against a team destined to lay an egg soon. And off a bye week too?
Patriots 41, Cowboys 30
24. Cincinnati -3 Seattle (4 Stars) PUSH
The Bengals have obviously been better than the Seahawks to this point in the season, it isnít even close. Iím not even prepared to say the Seahawks have the better defense in this game. Given a pickíem line, it is an easy choice if you are basing the selection on performance to date.
Bengals 27, Seahawks 15
25. Pittsburgh +3 San Diego (4 Stars) **WIN**
The Steeler defense is maturing fast, whereas the Chargers defense is a hot mess. Maybe even Vick will look good against San Diego? Pittsburgh hasnít had their best offense out there all season, so how much of a curve do you really need to allow for Roethlisberger? It is the Steelers. It is MNF!
Steelers 26, Charger 24
26. Arizona -3 Detroit (3 Stars) **WIN**
The 0-4 Lions are still just trying to win a game after being robbed in Seattle. The Cardinals do not appear to be sympathetic to their plight.
Cardinals 27, Lions 23
27. Baltimore -6 Cleveland (3 Stars) LOSS
After escaping Pittsburgh with their season intact, the Ravens take another step into contention against a Browns defense that has regressed.
Ravens 31, Browns 20
28. Jacksonville +3 Tampa Bay (3 Stars) LOSS
No reason to think Jacksonville canít hang with the punchless Bucs.
Jacksonville 21, TB 18 (OT)
29. St. Louis +9 Green Bay (2 Stars) LOSS
The Rams make a good 9 point dog against anyone, as they bring the heat like a Blazing Hot Wing.
Rams 21, Packers 26
30. Denver -4 Oakland (2 Stars) **WIN**
The Denver D will make this a long day for the Raiders and thereís always a chance for Peyton to light it up.
Broncos 24, Raiders 15
16. Houston +5.5 Atlanta (GOW 5 Stars) LOSS
Atlanta is firing at a Superbowl level, which canít continue. And while their defensive numbers appear solid, they looked like they a paper sieve against the Cowboys for much of the game. The number from Vegas reveals a similar opinion that Atlanta isnít a couple levels above the Texans. The value here seems fair to me but I feel the Texans bring a little more to this contest and matchup well.
17. New Orleans -3 Dallas (4 Stars) **WIN**
Dallas has done an admirable job playing without talent thanks to that beast of a line, but they simply donít have enough to make me think theyíll beat a top-tier Qb, regardless of how poorly the Saints have started. It is another chance for defensive coordinator Ryan to get revenge for his firing 2 years ago. At some point the Saints defense needs to stop being a stain on humanity and if they canít do it against the talentless Cowboys, itíll never happen. The line says they are even yet only 1 team has a Qb.
18. Miami +2 Jets (4 Stars) LOSS
Another pendulum game as the Dolphins simply need to show up and play a game or go home. The Jets offense will cool down.
19. Cleveland +7 San Diego (3 Stars) **WIN**
Cleveland simply doesnít get respect and San Diegoís defense is lacking. Iím not convinced the chargers should be favored as the better team.
20. Minnesota +6.5 Denver (3 Stars) **WIN**
This could be a brutally low scoring game, so Iíll take the points.
21. Washington +3 Philadelphia (2 Stars) **WIN**
Could be a rainy slugfest but the Eagles donít understand time of possession. The Redskins have to make a few plays eventually, and the Eagles will allow some plays, so this is a pendulum game too. I think both Qbs have issues right now.
22. NY Giants +5.5 Buffalo (2 Stars) **WIN**
As well as Buffalo has been playing, this matches up very even and should come down to the wire inside the points.
WEEK 4: THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL!
15. Steelers +3 Ravens (3 Stars)
Can the Ravens go 0-4? Well, if they lose this game. On the road in hostile Pittsburgh, short week, with little time to game plan for what Vick might present, the situation does not favor them. After an ugly first week, the Steelers defense has rebounded and has eclipsed what the Ravens have presented this year. So home field and defense favors the Steelers. The Steeler O has made due with missing parts all season but they don't have to play their own defense, only the Ravens defense.
Steelers 23, Ravens 20
8. Falcons -1.5 Cowboys (5 Stars - GOW) **WIN**
Nobody to throw, nobody to catch, and nobody to run.
9. Steelers +1 Rams (4 Stars) **WIN**
The Rams upset of the Seahawks is starting to look skittish after the Seahawks fell flat again and we wonder how they lost to the Redskins. And now with LaVar Bell back?
10. Jets -1.5 Eagles (4 Stars) LOSS
The Jets look pretty solid, and the Eagles are suddenly reeling. We'll see how Bradford holds up against a rush.
11. Bills +2.5 Dolphins (3 Stars) **WIN**
I'm not sure why the Dolphins are favored, with the Bills looking like they can go toe-to-toe with anyone.
12. Chiefs +6.5 Packers (3 Stars) LOSS
Don't be shocked if this is a high scoring shootout.
13. Cardinals -6.5 49ers (2 Stars) **WIN**
The 49ers are who we thought they were: A pretty sucky 2015 team.
14. Colts -3.5 Titans (2 Stars) LOSS
Good 'get right' game for the Colts.
1. Rams -3 Redskins (GOW 5 Stars) LOSS
The Rams defensive line should eat up the skins and devour the Skins QB Cousins, who has won few starts. The Redskins do not come from behind late in the game.
2. Packers -3.5 Seahawks (4 Stars) **WIN**
This game figures big for the Packers and the Seahawks defense has a hole in the back of it.
3. Eagles -4.5 Cowboys (4 Stars) LOSS
Revenge will be served against a Cowboys team running out of bullets.
4. 49ers +6.5 Steelers (3 Stars) LOSS
The Steelers D looked very disorganized now that Dick LeBeau has moved on, and they still are hampered by the suspension of Bell.
5. Browns +1.5 Titans (3 Stars) **WIN**
While not a fan of Johnny Football, the Browns defense would have destroyed the Titans a year ago. While I fear the LeBeau factor to some degree, I think the Browns rebound and the Titans face some rookie reality.
6. Ravens -6 Raiders (2 Stars) LOSS
I think the Ravens win by double-digits, rebounding from their disappointing defeat last week.
7. Patriots PK Bills (2 Stars) **WIN**
I get the Bills make a popular upset, with that mammoth defensive line and Ryan's success against the Patriots. But offered no points, I still feel the Patriots have a >50% chance to get the W.