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The Black Cat's Top 100+ Picks of 2009
THE SUPERBOWL...Colts -5.5 OVER/UNDER 56 Saints
This will be my last official update of the season. I would like to just say quickly that after years of dominating the lines, I had a really sucky year. I will review things deeply in the offseason and do whatever I need to do to return back on top in 2010. I am confident it isn't as bad as it seemed, as the poor suckers in my Yahoo spread pool could attest to since I took all their money.
Einstein had a pretty good Championship day, almost nailing the scores in both games. A 31-28 Saints final vs. 30-28 projection and a 30-17 Colts win vs. 23-17 projection. Deep Thought stats were fairly on the mark too, if you take into account the Vikings enormous problems hanging on to the ball and the Jets losing their budding star RB and shanking some kicks.
EINSTEIN:
Einstein favors the Colts by 1.5 points. The score will be Colts 30, New Orleans 28. Home field advantage is always an awkward subject for the Superbowl, but I don't have the Colts above 4 point favorites period.
DEEP THOUGHT:
Colts are favored by 1/2 a point. Consider this to mean 24-23 or 27-24 OT.
Manning: 44-for-374, 0.5 sacks, 2.5 turnovers, 28-124 ground
Brees: 41-for-337, 0.0 sacks, 1.0 turnovers, 23-68 ground
THE BLACK CAT:
Both Einstein and Deep Thought give a very slight edge to the Colts. I would favor the Saints if it were played in New Orleans, so how that "home field advantage" plays out on a neutral field could be a factor in who lifts the Lombardi. Looking at the stats from Deep Thought, the 124 yards rushing is certainly surprising and that appears to be a key to overcoming turnovers that the Saints might continue to force. However, today they racked up over 100 yards on 24 carries against a stout Jets defense. With both passing offenses looking explosive, the ground game and defending the ground game will tilt this game assuming the turnovers don't.
Good luck, enjoy what should be a great game, and see you next season!!!
PLAYOFFS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Round 3: Deep Thought (3-6) vs. Einstein: (2-5)
A reader of my column (the Beer Cat) asked me to explain the difference between Deep Thought and Einstein better.
Einstein is a linemaker. The lines from Einstein are very close to the actual line even though they are generated independently. You can think of Einstein as a "value line". It'll point you to which way the books have shaded things. If it is too far from the real line, that can be a signal that something is amiss too (check injuries, etc). In addition to being a very statistically accurate algorithm, Einstein was a perfect 16-0 in week 13 this season vs. the spread, something that is 1:65536 odds against (and then he won a 17th straight game the subsequent Thursday).
Deep Thought is a statistical matchup generator. It can predict passing and rushing stats, penalties, and turnovers from matchup strengths and then convert that into points. It is more likely to come up with an unusual but accurate angle of a game, like predicting a big upset. It seems to do particularly well in high-stakes matchups.
Last week wasn't good as the Cardinals defense was a powder puff (again), the Ravens seemed to blow a game I still think was winnable, and the Cowboys folded. But I personally took Deep Thought's "3 points Jets win" to the bank at 3-1 odds and lived to fight another day. And that day...is Sunday! (And hey...they are "due")
Indianapolis -7.5 NY Jets
Einstein: I would have set the line at Colts -6. Colts 23, Jets 17.
Deep Thought: Going Colts, but not by much: 21-20.
Black Cat: Einstein and Deep Thought both call a fairly tight game, but one the Colts will win. Deep Thought has the stats fairly close, showing the Colts having trouble running the ball and a modest passing game to compensate. But the Jets top 100 yards only through many carries (and punts) and I show Sanchez throwing for 200 yards, which I find difficult to believe. If that happens, they'll lose by a little. If it doesn't happen, the 7.5 points spread figures to be difficult for the Jets to cover. It probably helps that the Jets played them recently, and have tape of the Ravens defense to review. Because of this, they probably do have a decent shot of keeping things competitive.
New Orleans -4 Minnesota
Einstein: Line here is also a tad high, New Orleans by 2: 30-28. Saints vs. Colts in the Superbowl!
Deep Thought: Its a blowout...for the VIKINGS! Vikings 30, New Orleans 13. Vikings vs. Colts in the Superbowl!
The Black Cat: Einstein and Deep Thought agree the Vikings will rack up points, but how will the Vikings defense handle the Saints? Deep Thought sees Brees having a very difficult day, while Favre is projected to break 300 yards. Both teams should have effective rushing games, but if time of possession favors the Vikings, expect them to grind out a few more. The Vikings are scoffing at the idea that Bush is reborn, and one has to think Peterson is due for a breakout run himself. The Vikings bring a pretty stout defense here. If they play like most of us think they are capable of playing, this will be a rout. If they just looked good last week because Dallas offense really isn't that special, its going to be a lot harder on them. No doubt, though, that the Vikings ripped through one of the best defenses in the league on Sunday and the Saints are paper-thin by comparison!
Round 2: Deep Thought (2-2) vs. Einstein: (1-3)
Einstein thinks these lines are pretty much on the mark, but Deep Thought has other ideas!!
Arizona +7 New Orleans
Einstein: New Orleans 35, Arizona 27
Deep Thought: Arizona 35, New Orleans 21
Black Cat: Last week, I nailed it when I said Warner is exceptional in playoff games. While Brees should pass for 300 yards against the Cardinals, the Cardinals figure to rack up over 500 yards of total offense again. There is not enough pressure from the Saints defense for me to think otherwise.
Baltimore +6.5 Indianapolis
Einstein: Going to overtime, 24-21 OT Indy win
Deep Thought: Baltimore 27, Indianapolis 17
The Black Cat: Once again, I nailed it last week when I said Baltimore was going to run "hog wild" against the Patriots. This week, they play the worst rushing team in football and you know what...I think Baltimore is going to run hog wild AGAIN!
Minnesota -2.5 Dallas
Einstein: Minnesota 22.5 to Dallas 20
Deep Thought: Dallas 24, Minnesota 17
The Black Cat: Will the Vikings continue to have trouble getting to the QB? Will Peterson show up in this game? Can you believe the COWBOYS might have the rushing edge in this one? Favre has a good chance of breaking 300 yards and he will have to outperform Romo to survive this matchup.
San Diego -7 NYJ
Einstein: San Diego 28, Jets 20
Deep Thought: They don't get much tighter than this one. The Jets pull it out...barely...23 to 20.
The Black Cat: The Jets/Chargers couldn't shape up to be much closer than it does. Pressure on Sanchez will be paramount, because he's not going to give many opportunities to be sacked or intercepted. Last week, I said his matchup against Palmer was key...and it was. He won it handily. He has his work cut out for him this week and will need the Jets defense to keep Rivers in check. Vincent Jackson could be a key, as he faces the Jets shutdown corner.
Round 1: Deep Thought vs. Einstein
Cincinnati -2.5 NYJ
I have an algorithm called "Deep Thought" that is exceptionally statistically based, that creamed the playoffs in 2009. Deep Thought excels in "prime time" games, although it frequently runs counter to "Einstein", who hit an impossible 17-in-a-row just a couple weeks ago.
Einstein: I'm going with the Jets in a pick 'em.getting some points. Jets 14, Cincy 13.
Deep Thought: No, I'm going Cincinnati. If the Bengals get an early lead, this one is OVER! Cincy 14, Jets 10.
The Black Cat: I'm siding with Deep Thought. Not only because of his outstanding record in critical games, but because I believe its the right selection. The Jets, and particularly MARK SANCHEZ will turn over that ball 2-3 times, a deadly fact in the NFL playoffs. Seriously, with all things being relatively equal, you want to bet on Carson Palmer or rookie Mark Sanchez in a PLAYOFF game? Uhm, under 34? The defenses are equally strong, but the offenses sputter.
Philadelphia +4 -115 Dallas
Einstein: Dallas pulls it out, but not by enough. 21-20!
Deep Thought: McNabb can throw 300 yards against the Cowboys and Philadelphia pulls it out. 21-20!
The Black Cat: At least we have a consensus on the over/under! Dallas arguably has the best defense in the playoffs this year, which gives them one hell of a shot to go all the way. But they face an offense that is one of the league's best. This game probably comes down to how the Eagles defense, a mediocre group, holds up this week against a suddenly hot Cowboys offense. Those who think there is a coaching edge for Dallas are dreaming. This should be a battle so I say take the points.
Baltimore +3.5 -115 New England
Einstein: The league's second best defense goes up against a nearly exceptional Patriots offense. The Ravens O is not as good but the Patriots defense is still pretty formidable themselves. Patriots 21, Baltimore 17.
Deep Thought: Baltimore can run hog wild against the Patriots weakened line, though. I'll give the Patriots the win, but only by 21-20.
The Black Cat: Wes Welker injury is unaccounted for by my algorithms, which already lean Baltimore. New England is not to be overlooked, but that could be the difference against the vaunted Baltimore defense.
Green Bay PK -120 Arizona
Einstein: With a superior offensive attack, the Packers have the edge clearly. Pack 28, Cardinal 24.
Deep Thought: Don't count out Kurt in the playoffs! This one is a pick 'em and given the plummeting line, I don't know. Pack 20, Cardinals 20.
The Black Cat: The 11 win Packers are clearly formidable, but I agree that you'd be hard pressed to see Kurt Warner struggle in the playoffs. I think Aaron Rodgers is hot enough to match Kurt though. I'll tilt this towards the Pack.
1. New Orleans -13 Detroit (NO 38, Detroit 20) **WIN**
You don't make a living on double-digit spreads and much of my success in 2008 can be attributed to my staying away from them. But I'm drawn to this line enough to open the season with it. First, when taking a double-digit spread, you want to be certain that the team won't lose! What more could you want than Detroit? They lost EVERY game last season, and they haven't won a road game since the AFC/NFC merged. I like QBs and passing yards in the opening week, and can you ask for a bigger mismatch? Brees threw for 5,000 yards last season. Detroit is bringing a knife to a gun fight. Stafford hasn't even thrown a TD yet on an NFL field! And against VANILLA defenses, he threw a pick in every preseason outing. This start smacks of politics, pure and simple. And if you want to talk matchups, just 2 NFL games ago...probably the gameplan is still in their memory banks, the Saint smashed the Lions 41-7. It wouldn't surprise me if they know the Lions' personnel as well as the Lions' coaches do. What more could you want?
2. Tampa Bay +5.5 Dallas (TB 14, Dallas 13) LOSS
I had this one circled in May and the numbers support it. Dallas has a big opener next week and Tampa isn't likely to see their "A" game, whatever that is. Dallas may have some growing pains now that the greatest decoy in the NFL is no longer on their team.
3. Houston -4.5 NY Jets (Houston 20, Jets 13) LOSS
Another young QB starts, and he has to face down a defense designed to pressure Peyton Manning. I expect a good dose of Mario Williams. I actually take some comfort in Rex Grossman being the 2nd string QB.
4. Minnesota -3.5 -115 Cleveland (Minnesota 20, Cleveland 7) **WIN**
I've always loved taking Favre in openers, but this is really more about an explosive running game and a great defense on the Vikings side of the ball. I have to think the Vikings will win this game convincingly and given that, odds favor the cover.
5. Arizona -6 SF (Arizona 23, SF 7) LOSS
Pretty cheap considering that the Cardinals were substantially better than the 49ers last year. "Q" seems to stand for "Questionable".
6. Oakland +9.5 SD (SD 21, Oak 17)**WIN**
Last year, going against Oakland in the opener cost a mere 3 points. This year, its skyrocketed to 9.5. That's high enough for me to take the points even though I still doubt the Raiders can complete a forward pass.
Stat of note: I missed the margin of victory by just 1 point in my 3 wins. Exact on Oakland and NO, missed by 1 point on Minnesota.
Last Week: 3-3
Favs: 2-2
Dogs: 1-1
Total: 3-3
$100 Bet Net: -$31.23
Week-by-Week: 0-0-1
** MR. SEPTEMBER 2009 BEGINS (GOAL: 66%)**
7. Washington -10 StL (Skins 24, Rams 9) LOSS
Losing to the Rams last year, during a bizarre Rams 2-win surge sandwiched between two months as the NFL's worst team, cost the Redskins the playoffs. I remember this, and I'm sure they do too. After a humbling loss to the Giants, the Skins are in an early crisis of confidence. Zorn pulled out no shortage of gadget plays emphasizing a franchise in early desperation to establish itself. And on paper, this team figures to improve with upgrades to their top shelf defense and an offense one year more matured. On the flip side, the Rams showed no signs of improvement yesterday. In fact, despite racking up numerous turnovers early against Seattle, they STILL trailed 14-0 in a game that they played their worst football in the first half and declined from there. The Skins gave up big turnovers vs. the Giants and it would be a disaster of epic proportions if that happened again. I expect this is the game where Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas steps up, and was that a Randle El sighting yesterday? The clincher is that the Rams got devastated by the Seahawks TE yesterday, and they will be facing TE Cooley (70 yard TD in preseason) and his understudy in this game, offering little relief. With the NFC Beast rolling through week 1 yesterday, the Skins have no choice but to enter the division battle in Week 2 with an "A" effort. Struggling against the Rams won't cut it.
8. Oakland +3 -115 Kansas City (Raiders 27, Chiefs 24) **WIN**
Both of these teams were god awful last year and figure to be little better in 2009. However, if you want to run the rock (and these two teams should certainly think about it), you have to be impressed with how Oakland blew through their opponent last week. And the defense looked very solid against the Chargers. I've taken the Raiders two weeks in a row?
9. Tennessee -6.5 Houston (Titans 17, Houston 10) LOSS
In the "no brainer" category, last year's titans face off after a long week against the embarrassed Texans. It probably won't get much better this week and the points seem cheap.
10. NY Jets +3.5 -120 New England (Jets 23, Pats 17) **WIN**
While its hard to be down on the Patriots to much, their suddenly depleted defense seems vulnerable to a Jets team that ran up the yardage last weekend. Based on last week alone, you'd think the Jets would win handily. Knowing that's not realistic, you still have to be impressed with the value of this wager.
11. Cincinnati +9 Green Bay (Packers 17, Bengals 13) **WIN**
Cincinnati off of an awful effort, Green Bay off of a big opener, I think the teams gap will close and the Bengals stay competitive in this one.
12. Atlanta -6 Carolina (Atlanta 23, Carolina 9) **WIN**
Atlanta was better than Carolina last season by a considerable margin, and that's when the Panthers were GOOD. I think this line is at worst fair with the upside all being on the Falcons.
13. Seattle +1.5 San Francisco (Seattle 21, SF 10) LOSS
SF won but it was against a pathetic cardinals effort and their running game was almost non-existent. I think I'll pencil the Seahawks to take back the division and beat up on their division rival today.
14. Denver -3 -120 Cleveland (Denver 23, Cleveland 13) **WIN**
I'm stunned I'm taking the Broncos, but the Browns defense is a joke, the fans feel good about the team because of the fluke win, and I actually think they become the worst 2-0 team in football! The sinker is Denver's defense, which could be very strong this year.
15. Dallas -3 EVEN N.Y. Giants (Cowboys 27, Giants 23) LOSS
A big home opener and they are sliding the line below 3? A bit stunning, considering how beaten up the Giants are. I don't think this will be an easy win but the Cowboys should take this one.
Stat of note: My full board went 11-4 this week (12 considering I twittered for Indy as a pick'em game), as I went 6-0 in games I didn't recommend. Go figure? Its always nice to see my lines are sharp and my board is strong!
Last Week: 5-4
Favs: 4-5 (2-3)
Dogs: 4-2 (3-1)
Total: 8-7
$100 Bet Net: $4.21 (+$31.23...A lot of juice against me this week: )
Week-by-Week: 1-0-1
16. Detroit +6.5 Washington (Washington 24, Detroit 23) **WIN**
Right now, two field goals seems HUGE. Washington has never lost to Detroit in a billion years. Detroit hasn't won since 2007. Could this be an upset special? Seems like the Redskins are playing not to lose and that's a dangerous game when a hungry team hangs around.
17. SF +7 Minnesota (49ers 20, Vikings 6) **WIN**
You got to go with the dominant running back here...Frank Gore! SF has shut down Peterson last year and other backs this year.
18. Jacksonville +3.5 Houston (Jags 30, Texans 14) **WIN**
Houston clicked last week, but this week the Jags run wild.
19. Miami +6 -120 SD (Chargers 21, Dolphins 20) LOSS
Chargers can't move the ball between the tackles, no Tomlinson again.
20. Cincinnati +3.5 Pittsburgh (Bengals 28, Steelers 17) **WIN**
Pittsburgh is not the running team they used to be. Palmer will light them up!
21. NY Jets -2 Tennessee (Jets 27, Titans 9) **WIN**
Can the Titans go 0-3? Only if the Jets score more points tomorrow.
22. Atlanta +4.5 New England (Patriots 27, Falcons 24) LOSS
Not the best value on the surface, but considering all those injuries in New England...?
23. St. Louis +6.5 Green Bay (RAMS 24, GB 13) LOSS
The Rams...win? Trouble in Green Bay!
24. AZ -2.5 -120 Indianapolis (Cards 44, Colts 30) LOSS
The Colts are on a short week and an empty tank, and can not go the distance this week.
Last Week: 5-4
Favs: 5-6 (1-1)
Dogs: 8-5 (4-3)
Total: 13-11 (52%)
$100 Bet Net: $58.71 (+$54.50)
Week-by-Week: 2-0-1
25. Stl +10 SF (49ers 14, Rams 7) LOSS
When was the last time a player like Gore was hurt and the line responded by laying 10 points on an otherwise punchless team? You don't need much of a reason to take 10 in the NFL, and Gore being out is definitely a reason.
26. Washington -7 Tampa Bay (Skins 33, Bucs 20) LOSS
The Bucs didn't even have a single rusher make double-digits last weekend in an absolutely putrid performance. It won't get much better this week. Its a must win for the Skins without question and a win that needs to be convincing in front of a pressure-cooker home crowd. Winning by 3 is just as bad as losing this week.
27. Minnesota -3.5 Green Bay (Vikings 28, Green Bay 23) **WIN**
Two words: Adrian Peterson. And that Brett Favre guy seems to have a bit of a grudge against his former team doesn't hurt either.
28. Cincinnati -5.5 Cleveland (Bengals 23, Browns 14) LOSS
Browns are a speed bump.
29. Baltimore +2 New England (Baltimore 27, New England 23) LOSS
Ravens a year better, the Patriots 2 years worse.
30. Denver +3 -115 Dallas (Broncos 38, Boys 21) **WIN**
This one probably depends on an unknown rookie performing well again, but if he does, Denver will beat the Cowboys.
31. Oakland +8.5 Houston (Texans 28, Raiders 27) LOSS
Houston is too rotten of a team to lay 8.5 points on, even against Oakland.
32. Kansas City +9 NY Giants (Chiefs 23, Giants 20 OT) LOSS
While the Giants will dominate the game, I don't think they will dominate the scoreboard.
33. Tennessee -3 Jacksonville (Titans 21, Jags 17) LOSS
Not great line value here, but I do think Chris Johnson will lead the Titans to a win against the Jags defense and this translates to a pretty good shot to cover the spread.
34. Pittsburgh -5.5 San Diego (Steelers 27, Chargers 20) **WIN**
Gotta love the Steelers in primetime against a pass happy team!
THE END OF "MR. SEPTEMBER"?
Stat of Note: After years of fast starts from 60 to 66% including last year's 66% 25 pick effort, this was clearly my worst September ever since starting this column many years ago. That week #4 fell on the first week of October...typically my worst week of the season...may have been a superstitious factor? Either way, I've shown in recent years I can dominate any part of the season so hang in there! I'm a statistically based capper, and my weapons should be at their least effective in September when few stats are available.
Last Week: 3-7
Favs: 7-9 (1-3)
Dogs: 9-9 (1-4)
Total: 16-18
$100 Bet Net: -$372.51 (-$431.22 last week)
Week-by-Week: 2-1-1
NOTE: See important update on the Jets pick!!
35. Denver +3.5 -105 New England (Broncos 23, Patriots 17) **WIN**
Defense is now Denver's advantage, not New England's. Denver's offense has been surprisingly productive. I'm not guessing here...this is a very strong play. Turnovers and sacks should prominently favor the Broncos.
36. Washington +3.5 -105 Carolina (Skins 23, Panthers 20) **WIN**
The dreadful Skins continue their dreadful tour of the league dregs but this time, line expectations fall on the OTHER bad team. You have to love the Skins odds to keep this one close, win or lose.
37. Indianapolis -3.5 EVEN Tennessee (Colts 27, Titans 21) **WIN**
Personally, this one worries me as the Colts have been burning hot and the surprisingly 0-4 Titans historically play the Colts tough. But that kind of thinking got me in bad trouble last week. The number are undeniably in favor of the Colts, who were really only mediocre in their trashing of a bad opponent last week, and I'll risk the cover in a game they figure to win.
38. San Francisco -2.5 Atlanta (49ers 23, Falcons 17) LOSS
San Franciso could post back-to-back blowouts, but I'll call this a 7 point game with a 3 point spread.
XX. N.Y. Jets -2 Miami (Jets 20, Dolphins 17) I think the Jets D can handle the Miami rush attack.
XX 1/2 Miami +2.5 NYJ (Jets 20, Dolphins 17)
I'm pulling off this game!!! Its not worth a top 100 pick. $100 bettors, put $90.91 on the Dolphins +2.5 if you already put in the Jets. That's how I will score it here on my "bet net". I will not call this a "win" or "loss". I still favor the Jets but its not a top play. I apologize for posting this too early.
39. Jags PK Seattle (Jags 28, Seattle 20) LOSS
America's team may be a contender.
40. Cincinnati +9 Baltimore (Ravens 27, Bengals 21) **WIN** The Ravens are a bit suspect on pass defense and, historically, Carson Palmer in particular. The Ravens don't figure to lose many games this year, but we're due for a big spread to fall and the Bengals are as good a bet on that as anyone. The Ravens are now the most penalized team in the league.
NOTE: See important update on the Jets pick!!
Last Week: 4-2
Favs: 8-10 (1-1)
Dogs: 12-9 (3-0)
PK: 0-1 (0-1)
Total: 20-20
$100 Bet Net: -$200.21 (+$172.30 last week)
Week-by-Week: 3-1-1
41. New Orleans -3 -115 NYG (Saints 33, Giants 20) **WIN**
This is a wise guy's play. Although the Giants have destroyed the competition, the competition has been extremely poor. They still have much to prove. The Saints have the O, and now have the D to contend this season.
42. Cincinnati -4 -115 Houston (Bengals 30, Texans 20) LOSS
I'm not a big fan of Houston this season. Bengals should be able to handle this game convincingly.
43. Jacksonville -10 StL (Jaguars 27, Rams 10) LOSS
While Jacksonville plummeted out of the top 10 for their horrific showing last weekend, I expect a nice rebound against one of the league's college teams.
44. Denver +4 San Diego (Broncos 27, Chargers 17) **WIN** Riding the Wild Horses in 2009! The Chargers are an 8-8 team with a good QB. The Broncos are a contender who are lucky AND good. Bet reality, not reputation.
45. KC +6.5 Washington (Skins 17, Chiefs 14) **WIN** No Chris Samuels? Skins should have gotten one of those 1st round lineman in the draft. Now, they are going to pay the price. I don't see how the Skins can cover 6.5 seeing that it likely requires them to score a TD. No reason to think Kansas City couldn't upset here.
46. NE -9.5 Tennessee (Patriots 34, Titans 17) **WIN** I think the Pats will be fired up after that OT loss to Denver. They've had to play a lot of great defenses this year. The Titans aren't one of them, beset by even more injuries in the secondary. Their only hope? A mammoth day from Chris Johnson against a suspect Patriots run D before the Titans fall far behind.
47. NYJ -9.5 Buffalo (Jets 24, Bills 10) LOSS While I deplore laying so many fat lines, for the 2nd straight week, if I could pick ONE of the 3...I'd pick this one. The Bills are averaging a 1.5 point score differential for every pass completed against them. I think the Jets are good for at least 10 completions on 20 or so try, for well over 80 yards. That's gotta be worth at least 14 points. You got to like that aggressive defense against that rookie Bills line.
48. Chicago +3.5 +100 Atlanta (Falcons 24, Bears 21) LOSS This line is pretty tight as my predicted score indicates, but I think we'll get a tight game and maybe even an upset tonight from the well-rested Bears.
Last Week: 4-4
Favs: 10-13 (2-3)
Dogs: 14-10 (2-1)
PK: 0-1
Total: 24-24
$100 Bet Net: -$240.52 (-$40.31 last week)
Week-by-Week: 3-1-2
49. Indianapolis -13 -115 StL (Colts 30, Rams 12) **WIN** If for no other reason than because Brady went wild so Manning is bound to grab some attention back. The Rams play in a dome, BTW. Dome is to Manning what snow is to Brady.
50. Atlanta +4 Dallas (Falcons 23, Cowboys 17) LOSS Anyone who has watched these teams should tell you the Falcons are much more solid on both sides of the ball.
51. Cincinnati -1.5 Chicago (Bengals 24, Bears 21) **WIN** I'm hanging in there with Palmer & Co. Look for another clutch finish by Palmer this week.
XX. San Francisco +3 +100 Houston (49ers 27, Texans 23) The on again/off again Texans are off this week. The 49ers were off last week.
52. Philadelphia -7 Washington (Eagles 21, Skins B9) **WIN** I had to pick this game for no less than the bingo score joke. The Eagles, fresh off their embarrassment against the incompetant Raiders, now face the dysfunctional Redskins off their best game of the year. I don't know where you go with the QB, the coach, the bingo play caller. Its an embarrassment. If the game is as close as I predict above, I'll be shocked. It could be 42 to B9. The secret sauce, if you need any, is the injuries to the perilously thin line. Hogs anyone? NOT.
53. NYJ -6.5 Oakland (Jets 17, Raiders 3) **WIN** You want a defensive game Oakland? Ok, the Jets won't mind. The Raiders are too schematically dysfunctional to be competitive week after week.
54. Cleveland +9 Green Bay (Packers 27, Browns 20) LOSS I'm not that concerned that the Browns players missed practice time. I was once on a team where the QB had the flu all week and he completed 18 straight passes for a NCAA record without a single practice snap. The kicker for me is that the Packers have a rematch against the Vikings next week and the Browns are begging to be overlooked.
55. Minnesota +6 Pittsburgh (Vikings 27, Steelers 23) LOSS The Vikings won't overlook the Steelers. I have serious reservations about playing the Vikings because Roethlisberger could have a field day against this team. But with the Steelers penchant to play poorly in the 4th coupled with the way Favre has gamed in the 4th quarter, this figures to be close even if Pittsburgh statistically dominates the game. It'll be a pretty crappy effort if the Vikings don't cover this spread. While I believe Pittsburgh is on the upswing, the Vikings have been a substantially better team to date.
56. Arizona +7.5 NYG (Giants win, don't cover) **WIN** Arizona's o is hot, there are some things to exploit on the Giants D as we saw Oakland do last week. I think the Giants rebound but this game figures to be close, ala the Pittsburgh game earlier. Hopefully the result will be better.
Stat of Note: I'm now one winning bet away from pulling financially even for the season. Heating up, my Hilton picks (top 5) are 9-5-1 in the past 3 weeks also.
Last Week: 5-3
Favs: 14-13 (4-0)
Dogs: 15-13 (1-3)
PK: 0-1
Total: 29-27
$100 Bet Net: -$89.92 (+$150.60 last week)
Week-by-Week: 4-1-2
Tough week ahead...I'm hoping tougher lines actually play in my favor this week!
57. Minnesota +3 Green Bay (Packers 23, Vikings 21) **WIN** The lines are tight this week and Vegas surprised me by installing the pack as a full 3 point favorite in this one. I figured Minnesota for a PK or better. While I don't disagree with them, I think the public will and this line will fall, so I'm plunking down early. After a couple solid weeks against weak opponents, I think the Pack will have a couple bad bounces in this game. Favre has dreamed of this game -- he had reservations for his family MONTHS ago. I'm not betting against him today.
58. Denver +3 +110 Baltimore (Broncos 21, Ravens 17) LOSS Baltimore is not the fearsome defense of the past and could play into the Broncos conservative gameplay.
59. Arizona -10 -115 Carolina (Cards 30, Panthers 10) LOSS Great matchup for the surging Cardinals, who are #1 against the run and have nothing to fear from the pass.
60. Seattle +9.5 -105 Dallas (Cowboys 24, Seahawks 20) LOSS A couple Cowboy mistakes should keep this game interesting.
61. Oakland +16.5 -110 San Diego (Chargers 33, Raiders 17) **WIN** Not a ringing endoresment of the Raiders but I like their chances of hanging 16.
62. Atlanta +11.5 New Orleans (Saints 31, Falcons 21) **WIN** While large dogs have been roadkill lately, the Falcons have some serious claws for a double-digit underdog.
STAT OF NOTE: Since week 4, I have quietly racked up 16-12, a 57% record.
Last Week: 3-3
Favs: 14-14 (0-1)
Dogs: 18-15 (3-2)
PK: 0-1
Total: 32-30
$100 Bet Net: -$117.19 (-27.27 last week)
Week-by-Week: 4-1-3
63. San Diego +4.5 NYG (Chargers 38, Giants 30) *WIN* The sentiment here is that the Giants, losers of 3 straight, are playing this game like a Superbowl. If you want to buy into that, you are paying quite a premium. I'll take the value.
64. Dallas +3 EVEN Philadelphia (Cowboys 35, Eagles 30) *WIN* Dallas is red hot and matches up well with their division rival. At worst, this is a pick 'em.
65. Atlanta -9 Washington (Falcons 26, Redskins 3) *WIN* The Redskins have arguably the worst offense in the league and can no longer run the ball effectively. The Falcons are surging behind a red-hot Michael Turner.
66. New Orleans -13 Carolina (Saints 42, Panthers 17) LOSS The Saints consistency has been as awesome as the Panthers inconsistency.
67. San Francisco -4.5 Tennessee (49ers 27, Titans 14) LOSS The Titans run defense is abysmal, and the passing offense is ineffective.
68. Green Bay -10 Tampa Bay (Packers 38, Bucs 23) LOSS While the Packer backers may be down on their team, there certainly is no reason to think it'll translate into trouble against the Bucs.
69. Denver +2.5 Pittsburgh (Broncos 20, Steelers 12) LOSS Its strength against strength in the passing game as the high-flying pass happy Steelers face the stingiest pass defense in the league. Pittsburgh is unbelievable in primetime. You know Roethlisberger's ability to extend plays will cause some fits for Denver. And if he doesn't, the ground option is there for the Steelers with their young back. But this is an even contest IN Denver. There's been a lot of screwing around with the 3 points. I don't need the 3 points. While I'm not going to go straight-up here, I'll take +2.5 as a large value play because I believe the Broncos have shown they can play with the big boys.
Key Stat: Somehow I filtered out a 3-4 top 100 from an 8-5 board. Its got to come together eventually.
Last Week: 3-4
Favs: 15-17 (1-3)
Dogs: 20-16 (2-1)
PK: 0-1
Total: 35-34
$100 Bet Net: -$235.37 (-118.18 last week)
Week-by-Week: 4-2-3
70. NYJ -6.5 -115 Jacksonville (Jets 37, Jags 20) LOSS Jags have fallen apart.
71. New Orleans -13.5 -115 StL (Saints 42, Rams 9) LOSS Looks like one of the biggest mismatches of 2009!
72. Buffalo +6.5 Tennessee (Titans 21, Bills 20) LOSSTitans look rejuvenated behind Vince but can it continue and is it worth nearly 7?
73. Baltimore -10.5 Cleveland (Ravens 30, Browns 10) **WIN**And don't ask me how the Browns get "10".
74. Seattle +8.5 Arizona (Cards 27, Seahawks 24) LOSSThe Cardinals have actually been a better road team this season.
75. Denver -3.5 -115 Washington (Broncos 20, Skins 6) LOSS The suddenly reeling Broncos should have an easy time shutting down the Skins offense. Skins can not run the ball and control the clock, nor pass the ball and get yards. Ugly!
76. Cincinnati +7 -105 Pittsburgh (Steelers 32, Bengals 27) **WIN** The last time these teams met and they were both good, the scoreboard was broken. I expect an exciting game with mighty offenses torching proud defenses.
77. New England +2.5 Indianapolis (Patriots 34, Colts 28) **WIN** I like the way the Patriots match up in this one.
Stat: Now I'm pissed. The NFL will pay for this atrocity, I swear it.
Last Week: 3-5
Favs: 16-20 (1-3)
Dogs: 22-18 (2-2)
PK: 0-1
Total: 38-39
$100 Bet Net: -$458.31 (-222.94 last week)
Week-by-Week: 4-3-3
78. Carolina -3.5 -105 Miami (Panthers 28, Dolphins 21) LOSS I have this game fairly statistically even with productive running games (Ricky Williams on his own now??), but Carolina should break 7 yards per pass attempt while Miami will be closer to 5. Yardage may not be that different but its efficiency that counts.
79. Buffalo +8.5 Jacksonville (Bills 16, Jags 13) **WIN** TO can run the show now!
80. Tampa Bay +11 New Orleans (Saints 33, Bucs 30) LOSS Holes in the Saints defense continue to hurt the spread.
81. Cincinnati -9.5 Oakland (Bengals 28, Raiders 10) LOSS I'll go with that opportunistic Bengal defense.
82. StL +9.5 Arizona **WIN** (Cardinals 28, Rams 24) Rams can't win but can be troublesome.
XX. Indianapolis -2 Baltimore (Colts 26, Ravens 21) PUSH (or Win at -1/-1.5) Seems almost too easy?
83. Pittsburgh -10 Kansas City (Steelers 27, Chiefs 9) LOSS Steelers won't drop 2 straight here. Team is overdue for a game where they don't give up a TD on offense or special teams, so that's a +7.
84. Atlanta +6.5 -105 NY Giants (Giants 30, Falcons 27 OT) **WIN** Generous line move for a RB and LB chess sacrifice.
85. New England -10.5 NYJ (Pats 37, Jets 17) **WIN** Resurgent angry Patriots ready for payback for week 2.
86. Philadelphia -3 -120 Chicago (Eagles 27, Bears 14) **WIN** More turnovers for the bears = more losses.
Last Week: 5-4-1
Favs: 18-23 (2-3-1)
Dogs: 25-19 (3-1)
PK: 0-1
Total: 43-43
$100 Bet Net: -$407.01 (+51.30 last week)
Week-by-Week: 5-3-3
87. Oakland +13.5 Dallas (Cowboys 27, Raiders 17) LOSS I'm comfortable with 13.5 in this game as a cushion. It could be another Redskin-like affair that won't even have 13 points based on the lack of offensive production from the Cowboys lately. I'll predict a more exciting show in this primetime affair.
88. NY Giants -6.5 Denver (Giants 34, Broncos 20) LOSS Cinderella has lost her slipper. The Broncos are who we thought they were. This is a tough schedule situation for the Giants but a win here allows them to play for the division lead the following weekend.
89. Cincinnati -14 -115 Cleveland (Bengals 38, Browns 13) LOSS The Bengals blew the Raiders game, but they won't blow this one.
90. St Louis +3 Seattle (Rams 24, Hawks 12) LOSS It's rare when the wrong team is favored.
91. Tampa Bay +11.5 Atlanta (Falcons 30, Bucs 23) **WIN** Take the points.
92. Carolina +3.5 NYJ (Carolina 21, Jets 20) LOSS Which QB will play awfuller?
93. KC +13.5 -105 SD (Chargers 27, Chiefs 17) LOSS Chris Chambers gets payback.
94. Houston +3 Indy (Colts 23, Houston 21) LOSS Manning will show that NE made the right decision with a late comeback.
95. Tennessee -2 AZ (Titans 24, Cards 20) **WIN** Who has the better running game?
96. Miami -3.5 -105 Buffalo (Fish 27, Bills 17) LOSS Call me a cynic but Bills won't hit TO for 90 yards today.
97. Pittsburgh +8 Baltimore **WIN** Baltimore has struggled offensively. While Pittsburgh will struggle with the rookie QB, a TD mistake is already baked in considering the Steelers give one every week anyway, and the running game they will lean upon favors the Steelers. Finally, I considered that Baltimore isn't playing well enough to warrant an 8 point spread.
98. New England +1.5 New Orleans (Patriots 27, Saints 24) LOSS Patriots and Colts still rule this roost.
Thought of the Day: I was absolutely horrible this week. This obviously isn't my year but I'll learn from this and get the ship righted.
Last Week: 3-9
Favs: 19-26 (1-3)
Dogs: 27-25 (2-6)
PK: 0-1
Total: 46-52
$100 Bet Net: -$1034.28 (-627.27 last week)
Week-by-Week: 5-4-3
Its time for...THE 2 MINUTE DRILL!!!!
The team is down by 17 points and the game has entered the fourth quarter. The Black Cat has no choice but to pull out all the stops....going to THE FULL MONTY FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON! Every game, every pick rated from 1 to 4 stars (3 or more "***" is "Top 100" quality).99. *** NYJ -3 -115 Buffalo *** (Jets 24, Bills 12) **WIN** Buffalo has had a great ride but there's no protecting against the pass rush this week.
100. *** Minnesota -3 -130 Arizona *** (Vikings 31, Cardinals 24) LOSS Warner's iffy, and Favre isn't.
101. *** KC +4.5 Denver *** (Denver 23, KC 20) LOSS Division rival will cause trouble to the struggling Broncos.
102. *** New England -4 Miami *** (Patriots 27, Dolphins 20) LOSS Like the Jets game following the Indy game, this is not where the Dolphins want to be.
103. *** Carolina -5 Tampa Bay *** (Panthers 27, Bucs 17) **WIN** The Panthers just need to forget about passing.
104. *** Baltimore +3 EVEN Green Bay *** (Packers 24, Ravens 23) LOSS The Packers have some problems on defense and the Ravens are no pushover.
105. *** St Louis +9 Chicago *** (Bears 21, Rams 14) **WIN** Rams take advantage of Jeff George.
106. New Orleans -9.5 -115 Washington (Saints 33, Skins 15) LOSS Skins can't get it in the end zone, but the Saints sure can!
107. Atlanta +5 Phily (Eagles 24, Falcons 23) LOSS I think I'm missing something here. Falcons +5 at home? REALLY??
108. Indianapolis -6.5 Tennessee (Colts 30, Titans 17) **WIN** This is a big step up for the redhot titans.
109. Pittsburgh -14.5 Oakland (Steelers 27, Raiders 7) LOSS Steelers need a get right game here. No margin for error.
110. Cleveland +13.5 San Diego (Chargers 24, Browns 14) **WIN** Browns cover as the Chargers come to earth a bit.
111. SF PK Seattle (49ers 21, Hawks 17) LOSS The 49ers get this win.
112. XXX Dallas -2.5 NYG XXX (Cowboys 21, Giants 17) LOSS Flip a coin, either team could suck bad.
113. XXX Jacksonville PK Houston XXX (Jags 27, Texans 24) **WIN** Everyone thinks Houston will win easy. I have a hunch they won't!
114. XXX Detroit +13 Cincinnati XXX (Bengals 29, Lions 17) **WIN** Bengals always play down to opposition.
Thought of the day: I've squandered my 2008 winnings here, but I'm confident I will put together a strong finish.
Last Week: 7-9
Full Monty: 7-9
*** Monty: 3-4
Favs: 22-31 (3-5)
Dogs: 30-28 (3-3)
PK: 1-2 (1-1)
Total: 53-61
$100 Bet Net: -$1301.80 (-267.52 last week)
Week-by-Week: 5-5-3
115. Pittsburgh -10 Cleveland (Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 10) LOSS The Steelers will take it out on Cleveland in this short road trip.
116. **** Minnesota -6.5 Cincinnati **** (Vikings 24, Bengals 17) **WIN** Palmer is not lighting the world on fire.
117. **** Houston -6.5 Seattle **** (Houston 24, Seattle 20) **WIN** Houston should be able to muscle past Seattle.
118. **** NO -10.5 Atlanta **** (Saints 39, Falcons 13) LOSS No hangover for New Orleans this week.
119. *** Tennessee -13 StL *** (Titans 27, Rams 12) **WIN** Despite last week, the surge is real.
120. *** KC +1 Buffalo *** (Chiefs 23, Bills 20) LOSS The Bills are that bad.
121. *** NYJ -3 -125 Tampa Bay *** (Jets 21, Bucs 14) **WIN** Defense should be able to handle these guys.
122. *** Indianapolis -7 Denver *** (Colts 27, Broncos 14) **WIN** Business as usual for Colts.
123. *** NYG -1 Philadelphia *** (Giants 23, Eagles 21) LOSS Just when you thought they were done....
124. *** Oakland PK Washington *** (Raiders 20, Redskins 17) LOSS I expect a big day again from Jason, FF players.
125. *** Dallas -3 -115 SD *** (Cowboys 27, Chargers 23) LOSS Chargers always win in December. Cowboys never do. Therefore, Cowboys win? Of course, this is the NFL, lol.
126. *** Chicago +3.5 Green Bay *** (Bears 21, Packers 24) LOSS Bears fight hard in rivalry game.
127. Carolina +13 New England (Panthers 27, Patriots 35) **WIN** Panthers hang in there, but win? Nah.
128. Arizona -3.5 -105 San Francisco (Cardinals 21, 49ers 17) LOSS Cards can pass circles around SF.
129. Jacksonville -3 Miami (Jags 26, Dolphins 17) LOSS Jags can defend the run well enough, dispose of Miami.
130. Detroit +13.5 Baltimore (Lions 24, Ravens 23) LOSS That's right, I said Detroit will upset Baltimore.
Comment: Ironically, my top 5 for the Hilton contest went 4-1 for the first time this season. I switched up some games deep in my lineup that had issues and that obviously backfired on what could have been a very strong set.
Last Week: 6-10
Full Monty: 13-19 (6-10)
*** Monty: 8-10 (5-6)
Favs: 27-37 (5-6)
Dogs: 31-31 (1-3)
PK: 1-3 (0-1)
Total: 59-71 (45%)
$100 Bet Net: -$1767.20 (-465.40 last week)
Week-by-Week: 5-6-3
131. Indianapolis -3 Jacksonville (Colts 27, Jags 17) **WIN** Without doubt this line is impacted by the Colts clinching, and that certainly has a bearing on the odds. But the margin here...more than a TD...seems like a good deal to me. One of my computer's systems will be going for (at least) its 17th straight win vs. the spread in this contest. Like last Thursday's game, this is not a 3 star game due to the Colts situation.
132. *** New Orleans -7 Dallas *** (New Orleans 32, Dallas 20) LOSS The Colts sent a message Thursday night. Will the Saints reply?
Today's Selections are all brought to you by "Einstein", a computer prediction algorithm that has hit 17 straight wins against the Vegas spread at odds of 131,000 to 1 against prior to the Saints loss to the Cowboys on Saturday night. If you are looking for a hot hand to follow, I doubt there is any hotter hand than Einstein today. So without further ado...here is what Einstein selected for Sunday's games! With the Black Cat in Las Vegas, we'll be using the MGM lines tonight. ;-)
133. **** San Diego -7 EVEN Cincinnati **** LOSS (Chargers 27, Bengals 17) Chargers remain nova hot. Will Chris Henry be a distraction or a motivation?
134. **** Carolina +9.5 Minnesota **** (Vikings 24, Panthers 17) **WIN** Anything has to be better than Delhomme.
135. **** Washington +3 -120 NYG (Skins 23, Giants 21) **** LOSS Campbell breaks 400 yards in a win.
136. *** Oakland +14 Denver *** (Broncos 23, Raiders 10) **WIN** As long as they don't start Russell. I hear the backup backup is ready to go.
XXX. *** New England -7 -110 Buffalo (Patriots 27, Bills 13) PUSH If there's snow, I'd lay 30 on the Patriots.
137. *** Baltimore -11 Chicago *** (Ravens 24, Bears 10) **WIN** If Chicago even shows...
138. *** Cleveland +2 KC *** (Browns 20, Chiefs 17) **WIN** They beat the Steelers in bad weather...
139. *** Miami +5.5 Tennessee *** (Titans 28, Dolphins 25) **WIN** Too hot teams = close game.
140. *** Stl +14 Houston *** (Texans 24, Rams 13) **WIN* A lot of points...
141. Green Bay +2.5 Pittsburgh (Packers 27, Steelers 21) **WIN** Yeah, I think the Steelers may drop another one!
142. Tampa +6.5 Seattle (Seattle 23, Bucs 17) **WIN** Just under the line?
143. Philadelphia -7.5 SF (Eagles 24, 49ers 14) **WIN** Eagles too hot for 49ers.
144. NYJ -7 Atlanta (Jets 27, Falcons 20) LOSS I liked this game a lot at -4.5 but the line jumped.
145. Detroit +13.5 Arizona (Arizona 31, Lions 20) **WIN** 13.5 is too high.
Last Week: 11-4-1
Full Monty: 24-23-1 (11-4-1)
*** Monty: 13-13-1 (5-3-1)
Favs: 30-40 (3-3-1)
Dogs: 39-32 (8-1)
PK: 1-3
Total: 70-75
$100 Bet Net: -$1167.08 (+600.12 last week)
Week-by-Week: 6-6-3
146. **** San Diego +3 Tennessee **** ***WIN*** Merry Christmas!
147. *** Baltimore +2.5 Pittsburgh *** LOSS Fat premium on this one, Flacco should have his way with Pittsburgh secondary.
I continue with the picks of Einstein, which followed up 16-0 with an impressive 12-4-1 (includes SD/Ten).
148. **** Carolina +7.5 -105 NYG **** (NYG 24, Carolina 21) ***WIN***
149. **** Philadelphia -7 -105 Denver **** (Phily 28, Denver 17) LOSS
150. **** Buffalo +9 Atlanta **** (Atlanta 20, Bills 14) LOSS
151. *** NE -9.5 Jacksonville *** (Pats 29, Jags 13) ***WIN***
152. *** Washington +7 Dallas *** (Skins 14, Cowboys 20) LOSS
153. *** Indianapolis -5 NYJ *** (Indy 27, Jets 20) LOSS
154. Minnesota -7 Chicago (Minnesota 27, Chicago 17) LOSS
155. Arizona -14.5 Stl (28-10) May be a good fat line to bet against (other indicators) ***WIN***
156. Green Bay -14 Seattle (34-17) ***WIN***
157. New Orleans -14 Tampa Bay (37-17) LOSS May be a good fat line to bet against (other indicators)
158. SF -13.5 Detroit (28-10) ***WIN***
159. ---Miami -2 Houston--- (Miami 24, Houston 21) LOSS
160. ---KC +13.5 Cincinnati--- (Cinci 27, KC 14) ***WIN***
161. ---Cleveland -3 Oakland--- (Cleveland 21, Oakland 17) ***WIN***
Comment: Took a couple "end of season" losses, primarily Indy which I misread badly. Einstein is unaware of things such as a team folding completely.
Last Week: 8-8
Full Monty: 32-31-1 (8-8)
*** Monty: 16-18-1 (3-5)
Favs: 35-45 (5-5)
Dogs: 42-35 54.5% (3-3)
PK: 1-3
Total: 78-83
$100 Bet Net: -$1235.48 (-68.40 last week)
Week-by-Week: 6-6-4
NO PICKS THIS WEEK...READY TO TAKE ON THE PLAYOFFS!!
2006: 58%
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
Last year's net was about $1300 for $100 bet on each pick.
Lines are -110 unless otherwise specified
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