Welcome to the 2024-2025 Black Cat NFL Picks
PLAYS WILL START IN NOVEMBER WEEK 10
2006: 58%
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
2009: 49%
2010: 60%
2011: 53%
2012: 43%
2013: 52%
2014: 45%
2015: 60% Hilton Contest Winner w/ 65%
2016: 45%
2017: 48%
2018: 55%
2019: 47%
2020: 49% (57% dogs)
2021: 50% (54% dogs)
2022: 50%
2023: 55% (63% favs, 62% 2nd half overall)
NFL 2024 Season Record
Week 8: 3-4 (Units: 10-12)
Week 9: 1-2 (Units: 4-6)
Week 10: 5-1 83% (Units: 16-2 89%)
Week 11: 1-2 (Units: 3-6)
Week 12: 4-4 (Units: 11-15)
Week 13: 5-0 (Units: 18-0) 100%
Week 14: 2-3 (Units: 7-7)
Week 15: 3-1 75% (Units 6-4 60%)
Week 16: 2-6 (Units 4-12)
Week 17: 2-6 (Units 9-21)
Week 18: 0-3 (Units 0-12)
Wildcard: 2-4 (Units 7-11)
Divisional: 2-1 (Units: 6-3)
Conference: 1-3 (Units: 4-8)
Total: 33-40 (Units: 119-150)
Favorites: 11-18
Dogs: 19-19
Over/Unders: 3-3
>>> SUPERBOWL <<<
74. KC -1.5 Philadelphia (3 Units)
75. KC/Philadelphia Over 49.5 (2 Units)
Much reminiscent of Buffalo vs KC, the Eagles look dominant on paper. They check all the prediction boxes by a lot, particularly with 200 yards expected running the ball. The only area they seem to be at a slight disadvantage is sacks. Still, I feel we’ve seen this movie before. Against Buffalo, KC produced a lot more yards on the ground than expected thanks to the legs of Mahomes and broke the bank on yards per pass to even things out. They even were the first team to overcome losing the turnover game (not counting stopping multiple 4th and 1s). Speaking of 4th-and-1s, it’ll be interesting if the Chiefs have any kind of success against the “Tush Push” after dominating the Bills in short yardage.
If you want to know the computer’s projection, it is easily the Eagles (in an Under) by at least -2.5. But I’m not going there, I’ll take the Chiefs on a near pick’em to do what they do without any real mathematical rational, as I capitulate to one of my worst ends to the prognostication season by going against the hardware in abject failure and frustration.
My prediction: Kansas City 27, Eagles 24
>>> CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS <<<
70. Buffalo +1.5 Kansas City (4 Stars) LOSS
71. Under 47.5 (2 Stars) LOSS
I believe Buffalo has the cred to get a fair game against KC. They already beat them – they made sure KC had no chance of a game-winning drive! Statistically, this might not even be close. Josh Allen can go pass-for-pass without making critical mistakes with Mahomes and he can outscramble Mahomes. I think he may hit 300 yards in the air too. The ground game will be no contest, favoring the Bills by 2-to-1. I think the turnover battle leans Buffalo. ALL THAT BEING SAID, KC maximizes their outcomes every week. So this likely will come down to the wire – they aren’t going down easy. Betting-wise, I see all the upside value being here to take Buffalo and that’s how I wager. I do see the over/under as being set high even with good projections on the passing games.
Buffalo 23, KC 19
72. Eagles/Commanders Over 47.5 (4 Stars) WIN
73. Commanders +5.5 (2 Stars) LOSS
The Eagles/Commanders go at it for the 3rd time. Commanders lost by 8 the first round but won over backup Kenny Pickett the 2nd time, despite Saquon rushing for about 200 yards. They pasted the Eagles with 36 points though, which should concern Eagles fans. There is little doubt that the better Qb in this game is really the kid from Washington. Hurts is a game manager and AJ Brown is MIA in these playoffs. The line is fair – probably even low – but anything less than a high-scoring affair would be surprising. I have Washington being competitive on rushing yards between their 3 top guys and with a significant edge in the passing game. However, I do register an advantage for the Eagles in turnovers.
This may go the way of Buffalo/Baltimore, with Washington tying the game up down 30-22 and going for 2. The ball goes to TE Zach Ertz and…he catches it! They go to OT….and…?
Eagles 30, Washington 30 (OT decided)
>>> Round 2: Sunday <<<<
Of the 3 lopsided matchups, we have one road team that won already. Hard to expect 2 of the 3, so the Eagles will probably win. Buffalo/Baltimore is a 50-50 so that doesn’t really count in that.
68. Philadelphia -6.5 LA Rams (3 Units) ***LOSS***
Philadelphia’s running game is historically great. I expect this to be a major problem for a Rams team that is not great against the run at all. Stafford has shown some resilience but not enough to make me think they have a real shot here.
69. Buffalo +1 Baltimore (3 Units) ***WIN***
Baltimore has an unbelievable team. We haven’t seen this since 2019 – when they somehow lost in the same round to Tennessee. The Baltimore run defense is amazing, unfortunately they play the team in the NFL that could probably care less. Buffalo is good against the run – which is critical – and they have home field in a freezing cold game, where Josh Allen is the best ever. I think they pull this out, as improbable as that may seem. Baltimore is simply not great in the close games!
>> Round 2: Saturday <<<<
67. Washington +9.5 Detroit (3 Units) ***WIN***
I don’t think I was “wrong” about taking Tampa. They planned incredibly well! The problem is…so did Washington and they had a 17 play drive to keep the Bucs on ice in the 4th after that critical late fumble. Both of these teams are virtually unstoppable on offense and figure to score every possession. Both teams are willing to gamble a bit – although Washington’s strategy last week was hard to comprehend (particularly not going for 2 from the 1 yard line?) The Lions can’t do to Jayden what they did to the Vikings, he’s too mobile and his receivers are simply outstanding in man-on-man coverage. Let’s be honest – that defense is BEGGING to be exposed. Now, that 55.5 over/under looks pretty damn tempting given a near certain shootout but I think this could actually become a war of “time of possession”, with both teams playing defense by keeping the ball on offense. This may be highly unusual but just think of that 17 play drive Washington slammed the Bucs with and it may be hard to go over…so I’m actually thinking UNDER.
Jayden and this offense is real and I trust Washington’s game management in a close game more than I do the Lions! And I not only think this looks like a 1 score game but I don’t think the idea Washington is going to pull this out is crazy. The most dangerous 2nd round teams are those that win on the road in round #1!
As for the other Saturday game, I mean on paper sure the Texans may cover, but I don’t find that tempting. The Chiefs have looked stronger recently and a Bills-like thumping won’t surprise anyone. Moreover, I think there’s almost ZERO chance the Chiefs lose this game. I just can not see that happening to see the Texans take out the Chiefs 3-peat…so no.
>>> Wildcard: The Rest <<<<
62. Green Bay +5.5 Philadelphia (4 Stars) LOSS
63. Tampa Bay -3 Washington (3 Stars) LOSS
64. Denver +7.5 Buffalo (2 Stars) LOSS
65. Denver/Buffalo Over 48 (2 Stars) LOSS
Parlay worthy
66. Minnesota/Rams Under 48 (2 Stars) ***WIN***
>>> Wildcard: Saturday <<<<
61. Baltimore -9.5 Pittsburgh (5 Stars) ***WIN***
I wish I had a silver lining but unless Baltimore beats themselves, this one should get very ugly. Baltimore simply has a huge advantage on yards per play, both in run and pass. I don’t expect the Steelers to be within one score when this game ends. There’s a lot of reason to think Pittsburgh will hang in this game but the data just doesn’t show it anymore. One thing that caught my attention is Pat Freiermuth – who has played great – has over/under receptions of 40 yards. That’s a ton for a guy that logged under 20 in both Ravens matchups, and hasn’t crossed 40 in the past 3 weeks of great games.
As for the Chargers/Texans, my numbers have Chargers with a close (cover) win. But I think the Chargers make a great playoff team, making few mistakes and getting after the opposing Qb. I’ll just pass this one for now as I prefer to heed my numbers, not my gut.
More to come (for at least Sunday)
>>>> Week 18 <<<<
58. Minnesota +3 Detroit (5 Stars) LOSS
I really don’t think this will be close. Detroit is beating bad teams with what remains of its defense, but the Vikings are a completely different challenge than the 2024 49ers (who rang up 35 points a few days ago). I think the Vikings will probably smash them.
59. Green Bay -10 Chicago (4 Stars) LOSS
The Bears are simply a hot mess, and that won’t change tomorrow.
60. Tampa Bay -14 New Orleans (3 Stars) LOSS
This doesn’t strike me as much better than Green Bay to be laying 4 more points, but the Saints really are overmatched on both sides of the ball.
Other thoughts: It’ll be interesting to see the Patriots try their damnest best to lose to Mitch Trubisky. I don’t think the Giants will struggle to lose, as the Eagles defense will still smash them unless they literally play the 2nd unit for most of the game. The Giants did light it up with Drew Lock so who knows. I think Dallas will cover in a loss, but not really interested in betting it. See you in the playoffs, where I’ll likely recommend a lot of dogs and make money doing it!
>>>> Sunday/Monday <<<<
54. Detroit -3.5 San Francisco (5 Stars) ***WIN***
Detroit is getting healthier as SF looks for a left tackle. You know the Lions can not wait to just beat the living tar out of the 49ers heading into the playoffs!
55. Green Bay +1 Minnesota (5 Stars) LOSS
Both Qbs should light it up indoors, with Minnesota having splash plays and Green Bay having more of a running game and time-of-possession. The Vikings will not have the running game or the pass protection that the Packers will and that points me to a Packers win, as they roll into the playoffs. I have both Qbs in fantasy and I am actually starting Love.
56. Washington -3.5 Atlanta (4 Stars) ***WIN***
Statistically this could be close but the Skins coach is a defensive guy with a lot of experience using a rookie Qb in 2024. He’ll know how to deal with the Falcons starter and I see the Commanders winning by 8 points or more.
57. Cleveland +3.5 Miami (3 Stars) LOSS
Miami had the worst backup situation in the history of Pro Football without Tua, and the idea that they are back to that again is frightening as all hell. So yes – take the 3.5 points!
>> SATURDAY <<<<
51. Denver +3.5 Cincinnati (5 Stars) LOSS
The play of the day! Denver will shut down one Chase but probably not the other in this ariel display. I really have this more of an even game tilting for the Broncos to win, so we’re loving this FG margin despite this smelling like something of a shootout. Can the Broncos win if this is an over? Yes, I think they can.
52. New England Patriots +6 LA Chargers (2 Stars) LOSS
It’s the end of the season and I don’t take our contenders for the top playoff picks lightly, as many of them are falling off a cliff. But as bad as the Patriots are, I think we may see some fireworks from the rookie – enough to keep this mildly interesting in a loss. Relatedly, I like over 42.
53. LA Rams -6.5 Arizona (2 Stars) LOSS
I rode the Cardinals all the way to the graveyard the last few weeks, as we watched Kyler Murray implode and James Conner now going into this game hobbled or worse brings most of the value on this pick. The Rams are very up-and-down as an offense but we expect the passing game to be a full go today. I have a prop on Kyler to rush over 28.5 yards to pick up the slack from Conner and I like this under 47.5.
>>> CHRISTMAS <<<<
50. Pittsburgh +2.5 KC (4 Stars) ***LOSS***
>>>> WEEK 16 <<<<<
I’m just going to go straight 2 star picks, although I list them in order of preference.
42. NY Giants +8.5 Atlanta (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Obviously bettors are feeling the Qb switch, considering how limited that Kirk Cousins has been. While it feels like there is only upside, it is the first start for the rookie and I can’t really move the bar that much for him. I gave Atlanta a little bump here, but I still like the Giants. This wasn’t a guy that people saw as a top 10 pick either.
43. Pittsburgh +7 Baltimore (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Not really feeling the Steelers winning this one, which might be the first time I’ve said that this year. Clearly George Pickens injury is hurting this offense significantly, but at least TJ Watt is probably a go. They do play the Ravens well and Pittsburgh is a team that keeps games close, so it is hard to overlook the 6.5 points like last week (which didn’t go well).
44. Arizona -4.5 Carolina (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Apparently I must bet Arizona every week! Particularly like them against weaker teams, though.
45. Detroit -6.5 Chicago (2 Stars) ***WIN***
Chicago is such a mess and that passing defense is terrible, how can you not play this? Even if Detroit’s defense is hanging by a thread, Chicago might struggle to score with nobody out there.
46. Houston +3 Kansas City (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Houston is a reasonable matchup, KC is a weekly 3 point team and you have the bonus of Mahomes being banged up.
47. Tampa Bay -4 Dallas (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Dallas passing defense is just so so so bad, facing a red-hot Baker should be an easy win.
48. Tennessee +3.5 Indianapolis (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
I gave Tennessee a bump-up for sitting Will Levis and the defense promises they are playing hard.
49. Miami -0.5 SF (2 Stars) ***WIN***
I just don’t have faith in SF and Purdy to play well, even if their passing defense can be decent. The production just isn’t there and this isn’t really a “get right” game. Granted – Miami can’t beat good teams, which is why I played them this week. See what I did there?
>>>> WEEK 15 <<<<<
38. Pittsburgh +6 Philadelphia (4 Stars) LOSS
It is disappointing they will have to go without George Pickens – who really opens things up – but Pittsburgh continues to be money as an underdog and we’re at 6 POINTS here!! The Steelers will keep this one close too even if they can’t seal the deal. Steelers are simply underrated and have been all season.
39. Green Bay -2.5 Seattle (2 Stars) ***BIG WIN***
Should be something of a slam dunk that Green Bay pulls this out, so I’ll risk the odds of a 1 or 2 point win.
40. Arizona -6 New England (2 Stars) ***BIG WIN***
You would think I’d have learned by now not to trust Arizona, but apparently I haven’t. They do get a major step down in competition this week though.
41. Dallas +3 Carolina (2 Stars) ***BIG WIN***
Dallas plays better on the road. I don’t like their odds of winning but sure – this one should be a last second victory for someone and love the 3!
>>>> WEEK 14 <<<<<
33. Chargers +3.5 Chiefs (4 Stars) ***WIN***
Chargers are better on both sides of the ball, and the Chiefs increasingly are failing to protect Mahomes. I would say the Chargers will win but…well, it is the Chiefs.
34. Minnesota -5 Atlanta (3 Stars) ***WIN***
A lower-tier top team against a top-tier bad team. I think they’ll win by 8 or more.
35. Arizona -3 Seattle (3 Stars) LOSS
These two scrappy teams feel similar, but the Cardinals are much more real than the Seahawks are, and this should show.
36. Miami -6.5 NY Jets (2 Stars) LOSS {ot -6}
Good chance this one won’t even be close.
37. Pittsburgh/Cleveland Over 44 (2 Stars) LOSS {43 points}
By the numbers, 44 is pretty reasonable. But if you watched these teams last week, the odds this becomes a wild shootout seem surprisingly high! I have liked Pittsburgh Over with Russell Wilson and Cleveland is just an over every week now that they have a gunslinger again.
>>>>> WEEK 13 <<<<<
30. Pittsburgh +3 Cincinnati (5 Units) ***WIN***
Can’t believe we’re getting the 3 on Pittsburgh…AGAIN! It’s like the Chiefs, same thing every week.
31. Arizona +3.5 Minnesota (3 Units) ***WIN***
Arizona actually played a closer game than it seemed last week, they’ve played well overall and James Conner just got a new contract to boot!
32. Philadelphia +2.5 Baltimore (3 Units) ***WIN***
I think Baltimore will squeak this out by 1 or 2 – probably – and Derrick Henry will have some attitude in response to all the love Barkley just got last week as the “#1 Rb”. I’m not a huge believer in this one but the computer has spoken that this has value.
As for the rest of the slate, I think you can flip a coin on many of them. A couple upsets I particularly like are the 49ers to play with a +6.5 chip on their shoulder and beat Buffalo, and don’t be surprised if Atlanta is a trap game for San Diego. well….just a comment!
>> GOBBLE, GOBBLE <<<<<
28. Green Bay -3 Miami (4 Units) ***WIN***
The line is reasonable but I find Green Bay to be (surprisingly) the more explosive team. Add in Miami’s historical flaws – that they lose every big game, they play poorly in cold weather, they can’t win close games – seems like if you think THIS time will be different…
29. LA Raiders +13 Kansas City (3 Units) ***WIN***
If you look at this game as odds to win, +13 certainly does represent that there is NO confidence the Raiders walk out with a victory. However, Kansas City has also given us NO confidence they will win a game by 14+ points. For years, they have relished in keeping games within a TD and managing victories and there is enough juice in the Raiders stat sheet to make me think this will another “close” victory.
As for the other two games, I like Detroit at -9.5 but it doesn’t interest me unless it comes down a bit more. I won’t even watch NY Giants vs Dallas, but you have to like the Giants as a dog simply because they can run the ball a lot better. Can Dallas even win a home game?
>>>>> WEEK 12 <<<<<
21. Arizona +1 Seattle (5 Units) LOSS
Over the last few weeks, Arizona has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, excelling both offensively and defensively. And…they are off a bye!
Comment: Lifeless, dumb play on a peaked team.
22. LA Chargers +2.5 Baltimore (3 Units) LOSS
I’m not thrilled about missing the +3, but the way I see it is that if this game is close…the Ravens lose because the Chargers win close games and the Ravens do not! So…I just took this on the money line personally. And I think the Chargers are actually the better team, especially with HF.
Comment: Ravens are basically unstoppable when they bring their A game. JK Dobbins getting injured didn’t help much either.
23. Tampa Bay -6 NY Giants (3 Units) ***WIN***
This is a really fat line for a defense as bad as Tampa Bay. But i’m feeling this one. Tampa gets back their top WR and the Giants voluntarily put in the backup, which is actually a downgrade. Is it worth -6 on the road? Eh. But we know Tampa should score bucketloads of points so we’ll just see if the Giants can.
Comment: This was more of an off-computer pick, but it worked out as expected.
24. Washington -10.5 Dallas (3 Units) LOSS
Another “not cheap” line, but I have no doubt that Jaylen will absolutely rip this Dallas defense to pieces. Sure the last couple weeks were rough, but so were those defenses.
Comment: This was more of an off-computer pick, and it was a disaster.
25. Carolina +10.5 Kansas City (3 Units) ***WIN***
Kansas City doesn’t play to blow out teams. They play to win. And it isn’t like KC is that dominant anyway – they certainly have their own issues they overcome weekly.
Comment: KC did what KC does.
26. Green Bay -6 SF (3 Units) ***WIN***
Honestly, I liked this line with SF Qb playing, It moved a lot with him out but frankly – even WITH Brock Purdy – I wouldn’t take SF +6. Now comes in Allen, all of 2 wins in 9 tries against a high-scoring GB offense.
Comment: That worked out as expected.
27. Chicago +3.5 Minnesota (2 Units) ***WIN***
Purely a computer pick, on Minnesota’s falling ranking with the troubles recently from turnovers etc.
Comment: Computer was right
20. Pittsburgh -3.5 Cleveland (4 Stars) LOSS
One of most punchless offenses in the league will take on a Steeler D that won’t let them run – and not much good will happen when they pass. I don’t know if it gets more easy than this one. And the Browns get a short week to get ready for this? This is a team that just got squashed by the Saints, a team that didn’t even win in the month of October. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers rack up 200 yards on the ground and complete the few passes they bother to throw for huge chunks. The line is laughably low!
Steelers 23, Browns 16
Comment: Wild weather game, Cleveland got some pretty amazing plays from Winston
>>>>> WEEK 11 <<<<<
Honestly not really feeling this slate. A lot of bad teams getting points, probably a case for nearly all of them but I would rather focus on the better dogs and the most solid favorite.
17. Green Bay -5.5 Chicago (3 Units) LOSS
Everyone may recall that the Packers own the Bears. With the Bears reeling going into this one, I don’t see that changing this weekend.
Packers 24, Bears 16
Result: Well…they won didn’t they? Chicago surprisingly had a pulse.
18. Pittsburgh +3 Baltimore (3 Units) ***WIN***
This major divisional game should be a 3 pointer-type affair, so I really like getting 3 here – especially at home.
Steelers 23, Ravens 25
Result: Steelers continue to be money this season, constantly underrated.
19. Kansas City +2 Buffalo (3 Units) LOSS
With the Chiefs down a kicker, I see a lot of value in this game having an awkward score that is likely to end up 1 or 2 points. This may be just as good as KC +3 as a result. Interestingly, I see this total being lower on paper.
Chiefs 21, Bills 20
Result: A TD instead of a FG led to the Bills covering rather than losing by 2. But seemed like I had the right idea here.
>>>>> WEEK 10 <<<<<
11. Arizona +2 NY Jets (5 Units) ***WIN***
It may be a very close game, but if it isn’t – I like Arizona.
Cardinals 20, Jets 17
Result: Went to plan
12. Carolina +6.5 NY Giants (4 Units+) ***WIN***
I think this could be a very high scoring affair in Germany. Carolina’s offense isn’t that bad and the Giants defense isn’t that good. It won’t surprise me if the Panthers win again. I like the over 40.5 for a small 1-unit play or a parlay (loss).
Panthers 21, Giants 23
Result: Went to plan
13. Tampa Bay +6.5 San Francisco (3 Units) ***WIN***
Tampa Bay is too good team to be laying 6.5 points at home, regardless of the opponent and some of the injury setbacks of Tampa. And it isn’t like the 49ers defense is all that!
Bucs 24, 49ers 27
Result: Went to plan
14. Detroit -3.5 Houston (2 Units) LOSS
Detroit is just rolling right now, and Houston isn’t.
Lions 27, Texans 20
Result: Somehow – they won despite throwing the ball to the wrong team all night. I thought I had a shot to cover with OT, but at least I doubled-up at halftime for a push.
15. Denver +7.5 Kansas City (2 Units) ***WIN***
The effort against Baltimore was an outlier – I think they will give the Chiefs a hard time. It is never really a bad idea to take the Chiefs over a TD.
Broncos 19, Chiefs 23
Result: Went to plan
16. Pittsburgh +2.5 Washington (2 Units) ***WIN***
The only thing that moved me to make a pick in this game is Brian Robinson being out again. Probably a complete toss-up type game and you are getting 2.5.
Steelers 24, Commands 23
Result: Went to plan
Bonus: Hard to think that Monday night football won’t be a high-scoring barn burner! Throw 1-unit or 2 on the over 49.
>>>>> WEEK 9 <<<<<
8. Washington -3.5 NY Giants (4 Stars) ***WIN***
Washington stacks up as an elite team no matter how you slice this. Jayden seems like he’s fine after the recent injury and won’t need a “Hail Mary” this weekend. This is a team that has every reason to believe in itself.
Commanders 26, Giants 17
Result: Went to plan
9. Chicago +1.5 Arizona (4 Stars) LOSS
I’m seeing this game very differently – and, honestly, I’m not sure why. At worst, this seems to stack up as an even game whereas – at best – the Chicago defense will be too much for the Cardinals.
Bears 23, Cardinals 15
Result: ugh!
10. Green Bay +3.5 Detroit (2 Stars) LOSS
This seems like a fair line if Love does not play – but, the upside here is Love may play. We already saw this play out favorably last week for Washington, and this is a very big game for the Packers. So I think it is worth a shot here to put money on Green Bay. Keep in mind, with Detroit playing the best football in the league, it is hard not to overrate them.
Green Bay 23, Detroit 26
Result: injury to Love
>>>>> WEEK 8 <<<<<
6. Pittsburgh -6 NY Giants (5 Units) ***WIN***
The Steelers have been underrated by Vegas all year and they are still ascending, having gotten bolstered by Highsmith last week on defense. This is a healthy Steeler defense and they are possibly the league’s best when everyone is out there. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson took the helm last year and showed he can open up the offense quite a bit from the limited but safe production they’ve seen from Fields this season. This game means a lot to Pittsburgh, as they can capitalize on the Ravens loss to take the division lead and join the ranks of the AFC elite – where they belong if Wilson can play well for them.
It’s been a rough week for my debut but I got a great “save the baby” MNF play to ride!
Steelers 28, Giants 16
Result: Like most Steelers games it was ugly and the defense had to bail them out late, but it went about as you might expect. Even the projected score is on the money!!
7. Pittsburgh / NY Giants Over 36.5 (2 Units) ***WIN***
While a healthy pittsburgh defense is a handful for the giants, I think we can pen them in for a minimum of 14 points and probably 17. Feels like a pretty safe prediction that this goes over the lowest number of the weekend – I’ll call it 44.
Pittsburgh 28, NY Giants 16
Result: With TDs constantly called back, it was getting to be a bit of a nailbiter in the 4th but went comfortably over.
Previously:
2. GB -3.5 Jacksonville (4 Units) LOSS
I don’t see why this shouldn’t be a -7.5 point spread. Love should lead Qbs this weekend, huge disparity on defense.
Packers 26, Jags 17
Result: Love injured early, loss by 1/2 point
3. Arizona +4 Miami (3 Units) ***WIN***
Tua is back and we expect a huge lift for the completely dead Miami offense from this. However, the Cardinals project as a better defense and that seems to wash out the expected jump for Miami’s offense for me. I’ll give the Dolphins a couple points here but can’t get to 4 logically.
Dolphins 19, Cardinals 17
Result: Tua was a huge lift as anticipated, but Cardinals still hung in and won.
4. Chicago +1 Washington (3 Units) LOSS
Jayden Daniels may play, but he’s still compromised facing a really tough defense. I think even under the best of circumstances, this was Washington -1 so the question is how far do you move the needle here.
Bears 22, Commandos 20
Result: Like a Bears defender, I was celebrating this win too soon! Jaylen did not seem hurt – at all.
5. Baltimore -8 Cleveland (2 Units) LOSS
It’s a big line so I won’t go too crazy here, but I don’t expect much of a battle.
Ravens 30, Cleveland 16
Result: This one never had a chance, as Cleveland played like a team with a Qb. Winston lit up the Ravens secondary for over 8 yards per pass and 334, 3 TDs, and 0 ints.
BONUS: Denver -11 & Under 41 (1 Unit) LOSS
I’m not really high on either Denver or the Under alone. But with the Panthers having to revert back to Bryce Young against that brutal pass defense – the way I see Denver winning by 11 is simply to shutdown the Panthers and have to score most of that 41 themselves.
Result: Right idea but squeeked over the total as the Panthers scored with a few seconds left in the game.
1. Minnesota -3 LA Rams (3 Units) LOSS
Statistically it could be close but Minnesota advantage in yards per pass and rushing are notable, and should lead to a divergent outcome. Rams play good pass defense on the outside but still gave up 10 TDs in 6 games. It is hard to ignore how little the Rams have found the end zone this year, and they face a pretty stingy Vikings defense that should push this game under the 47.5 total. The Vikings rookie kicker has been red hot and is ready if this becomes a FG exchange.
Vikings 23, Rams 16
Result: Despite putting Cooper Kupp on the trade block and Puka being questionable, both receivers showed up healthy to catch balls for Stafford playing out of his mind, ripping apart a highly-rated Vikings defense.
2006: 58%
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
2009: 49%
2010: 60%
2011: 53%
2012: 43%
2013: 52%
2014: 45%
2015: 60% Hilton Contest Winner w/ 65%
2016: 45%
2017: 48%
2018: 55%
2019: 47%
2020: 49% (57% dogs)
2021: 50% (54% dogs)
2022: 50%
2023: 55% (63% favs, 62% 2nd half overall)
NFL 2024 Season Record
Week 8: 3-4 (Units: 10-12)
Week 9: 1-2 (Units: 4-6)
Week 10: 5-1 83% (Units: 16-2 89%)
Week 11: 1-2 (Units: 3-6)
Week 12: 4-4 (Units: 11-15)
Week 13: 5-0 (Units: 18-0) 100%
Week 14: 2-3 (Units: 7-7)
Week 15: 3-1 75% (Units 6-4 60%)
Week 16: 2-6 (Units 4-12)
Week 17: 2-6 (Units 9-21)
Week 18: 0-3 (Units 0-12)
Wildcard: 2-4 (Units 7-11)
Divisional: 2-1 (Units: 6-3)
Conference: 1-3 (Units: 4-8)
Total: 33-40 (Units: 119-150)
Favorites: 11-18
Dogs: 19-19
Over/Unders: 3-3
>>> SUPERBOWL <<<
74. KC -1.5 Philadelphia (3 Units)
75. KC/Philadelphia Over 49.5 (2 Units)
Much reminiscent of Buffalo vs KC, the Eagles look dominant on paper. They check all the prediction boxes by a lot, particularly with 200 yards expected running the ball. The only area they seem to be at a slight disadvantage is sacks. Still, I feel we’ve seen this movie before. Against Buffalo, KC produced a lot more yards on the ground than expected thanks to the legs of Mahomes and broke the bank on yards per pass to even things out. They even were the first team to overcome losing the turnover game (not counting stopping multiple 4th and 1s). Speaking of 4th-and-1s, it’ll be interesting if the Chiefs have any kind of success against the “Tush Push” after dominating the Bills in short yardage.
If you want to know the computer’s projection, it is easily the Eagles (in an Under) by at least -2.5. But I’m not going there, I’ll take the Chiefs on a near pick’em to do what they do without any real mathematical rational, as I capitulate to one of my worst ends to the prognostication season by going against the hardware in abject failure and frustration.
My prediction: Kansas City 27, Eagles 24
>>> CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS <<<
70. Buffalo +1.5 Kansas City (4 Stars) LOSS
71. Under 47.5 (2 Stars) LOSS
I believe Buffalo has the cred to get a fair game against KC. They already beat them – they made sure KC had no chance of a game-winning drive! Statistically, this might not even be close. Josh Allen can go pass-for-pass without making critical mistakes with Mahomes and he can outscramble Mahomes. I think he may hit 300 yards in the air too. The ground game will be no contest, favoring the Bills by 2-to-1. I think the turnover battle leans Buffalo. ALL THAT BEING SAID, KC maximizes their outcomes every week. So this likely will come down to the wire – they aren’t going down easy. Betting-wise, I see all the upside value being here to take Buffalo and that’s how I wager. I do see the over/under as being set high even with good projections on the passing games.
Buffalo 23, KC 19
72. Eagles/Commanders Over 47.5 (4 Stars) WIN
73. Commanders +5.5 (2 Stars) LOSS
The Eagles/Commanders go at it for the 3rd time. Commanders lost by 8 the first round but won over backup Kenny Pickett the 2nd time, despite Saquon rushing for about 200 yards. They pasted the Eagles with 36 points though, which should concern Eagles fans. There is little doubt that the better Qb in this game is really the kid from Washington. Hurts is a game manager and AJ Brown is MIA in these playoffs. The line is fair – probably even low – but anything less than a high-scoring affair would be surprising. I have Washington being competitive on rushing yards between their 3 top guys and with a significant edge in the passing game. However, I do register an advantage for the Eagles in turnovers.
This may go the way of Buffalo/Baltimore, with Washington tying the game up down 30-22 and going for 2. The ball goes to TE Zach Ertz and…he catches it! They go to OT….and…?
Eagles 30, Washington 30 (OT decided)
>>> Round 2: Sunday <<<<
Of the 3 lopsided matchups, we have one road team that won already. Hard to expect 2 of the 3, so the Eagles will probably win. Buffalo/Baltimore is a 50-50 so that doesn’t really count in that.
68. Philadelphia -6.5 LA Rams (3 Units) ***LOSS***
Philadelphia’s running game is historically great. I expect this to be a major problem for a Rams team that is not great against the run at all. Stafford has shown some resilience but not enough to make me think they have a real shot here.
69. Buffalo +1 Baltimore (3 Units) ***WIN***
Baltimore has an unbelievable team. We haven’t seen this since 2019 – when they somehow lost in the same round to Tennessee. The Baltimore run defense is amazing, unfortunately they play the team in the NFL that could probably care less. Buffalo is good against the run – which is critical – and they have home field in a freezing cold game, where Josh Allen is the best ever. I think they pull this out, as improbable as that may seem. Baltimore is simply not great in the close games!
>> Round 2: Saturday <<<<
67. Washington +9.5 Detroit (3 Units) ***WIN***
I don’t think I was “wrong” about taking Tampa. They planned incredibly well! The problem is…so did Washington and they had a 17 play drive to keep the Bucs on ice in the 4th after that critical late fumble. Both of these teams are virtually unstoppable on offense and figure to score every possession. Both teams are willing to gamble a bit – although Washington’s strategy last week was hard to comprehend (particularly not going for 2 from the 1 yard line?) The Lions can’t do to Jayden what they did to the Vikings, he’s too mobile and his receivers are simply outstanding in man-on-man coverage. Let’s be honest – that defense is BEGGING to be exposed. Now, that 55.5 over/under looks pretty damn tempting given a near certain shootout but I think this could actually become a war of “time of possession”, with both teams playing defense by keeping the ball on offense. This may be highly unusual but just think of that 17 play drive Washington slammed the Bucs with and it may be hard to go over…so I’m actually thinking UNDER.
Jayden and this offense is real and I trust Washington’s game management in a close game more than I do the Lions! And I not only think this looks like a 1 score game but I don’t think the idea Washington is going to pull this out is crazy. The most dangerous 2nd round teams are those that win on the road in round #1!
As for the other Saturday game, I mean on paper sure the Texans may cover, but I don’t find that tempting. The Chiefs have looked stronger recently and a Bills-like thumping won’t surprise anyone. Moreover, I think there’s almost ZERO chance the Chiefs lose this game. I just can not see that happening to see the Texans take out the Chiefs 3-peat…so no.
>>> Wildcard: The Rest <<<<
62. Green Bay +5.5 Philadelphia (4 Stars) LOSS
63. Tampa Bay -3 Washington (3 Stars) LOSS
64. Denver +7.5 Buffalo (2 Stars) LOSS
65. Denver/Buffalo Over 48 (2 Stars) LOSS
Parlay worthy
66. Minnesota/Rams Under 48 (2 Stars) ***WIN***
>>> Wildcard: Saturday <<<<
61. Baltimore -9.5 Pittsburgh (5 Stars) ***WIN***
I wish I had a silver lining but unless Baltimore beats themselves, this one should get very ugly. Baltimore simply has a huge advantage on yards per play, both in run and pass. I don’t expect the Steelers to be within one score when this game ends. There’s a lot of reason to think Pittsburgh will hang in this game but the data just doesn’t show it anymore. One thing that caught my attention is Pat Freiermuth – who has played great – has over/under receptions of 40 yards. That’s a ton for a guy that logged under 20 in both Ravens matchups, and hasn’t crossed 40 in the past 3 weeks of great games.
As for the Chargers/Texans, my numbers have Chargers with a close (cover) win. But I think the Chargers make a great playoff team, making few mistakes and getting after the opposing Qb. I’ll just pass this one for now as I prefer to heed my numbers, not my gut.
More to come (for at least Sunday)
>>>> Week 18 <<<<
58. Minnesota +3 Detroit (5 Stars) LOSS
I really don’t think this will be close. Detroit is beating bad teams with what remains of its defense, but the Vikings are a completely different challenge than the 2024 49ers (who rang up 35 points a few days ago). I think the Vikings will probably smash them.
59. Green Bay -10 Chicago (4 Stars) LOSS
The Bears are simply a hot mess, and that won’t change tomorrow.
60. Tampa Bay -14 New Orleans (3 Stars) LOSS
This doesn’t strike me as much better than Green Bay to be laying 4 more points, but the Saints really are overmatched on both sides of the ball.
Other thoughts: It’ll be interesting to see the Patriots try their damnest best to lose to Mitch Trubisky. I don’t think the Giants will struggle to lose, as the Eagles defense will still smash them unless they literally play the 2nd unit for most of the game. The Giants did light it up with Drew Lock so who knows. I think Dallas will cover in a loss, but not really interested in betting it. See you in the playoffs, where I’ll likely recommend a lot of dogs and make money doing it!
>>>> Sunday/Monday <<<<
54. Detroit -3.5 San Francisco (5 Stars) ***WIN***
Detroit is getting healthier as SF looks for a left tackle. You know the Lions can not wait to just beat the living tar out of the 49ers heading into the playoffs!
55. Green Bay +1 Minnesota (5 Stars) LOSS
Both Qbs should light it up indoors, with Minnesota having splash plays and Green Bay having more of a running game and time-of-possession. The Vikings will not have the running game or the pass protection that the Packers will and that points me to a Packers win, as they roll into the playoffs. I have both Qbs in fantasy and I am actually starting Love.
56. Washington -3.5 Atlanta (4 Stars) ***WIN***
Statistically this could be close but the Skins coach is a defensive guy with a lot of experience using a rookie Qb in 2024. He’ll know how to deal with the Falcons starter and I see the Commanders winning by 8 points or more.
57. Cleveland +3.5 Miami (3 Stars) LOSS
Miami had the worst backup situation in the history of Pro Football without Tua, and the idea that they are back to that again is frightening as all hell. So yes – take the 3.5 points!
>> SATURDAY <<<<
51. Denver +3.5 Cincinnati (5 Stars) LOSS
The play of the day! Denver will shut down one Chase but probably not the other in this ariel display. I really have this more of an even game tilting for the Broncos to win, so we’re loving this FG margin despite this smelling like something of a shootout. Can the Broncos win if this is an over? Yes, I think they can.
52. New England Patriots +6 LA Chargers (2 Stars) LOSS
It’s the end of the season and I don’t take our contenders for the top playoff picks lightly, as many of them are falling off a cliff. But as bad as the Patriots are, I think we may see some fireworks from the rookie – enough to keep this mildly interesting in a loss. Relatedly, I like over 42.
53. LA Rams -6.5 Arizona (2 Stars) LOSS
I rode the Cardinals all the way to the graveyard the last few weeks, as we watched Kyler Murray implode and James Conner now going into this game hobbled or worse brings most of the value on this pick. The Rams are very up-and-down as an offense but we expect the passing game to be a full go today. I have a prop on Kyler to rush over 28.5 yards to pick up the slack from Conner and I like this under 47.5.
>>> CHRISTMAS <<<<
50. Pittsburgh +2.5 KC (4 Stars) ***LOSS***
>>>> WEEK 16 <<<<<
I’m just going to go straight 2 star picks, although I list them in order of preference.
42. NY Giants +8.5 Atlanta (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Obviously bettors are feeling the Qb switch, considering how limited that Kirk Cousins has been. While it feels like there is only upside, it is the first start for the rookie and I can’t really move the bar that much for him. I gave Atlanta a little bump here, but I still like the Giants. This wasn’t a guy that people saw as a top 10 pick either.
43. Pittsburgh +7 Baltimore (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Not really feeling the Steelers winning this one, which might be the first time I’ve said that this year. Clearly George Pickens injury is hurting this offense significantly, but at least TJ Watt is probably a go. They do play the Ravens well and Pittsburgh is a team that keeps games close, so it is hard to overlook the 6.5 points like last week (which didn’t go well).
44. Arizona -4.5 Carolina (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Apparently I must bet Arizona every week! Particularly like them against weaker teams, though.
45. Detroit -6.5 Chicago (2 Stars) ***WIN***
Chicago is such a mess and that passing defense is terrible, how can you not play this? Even if Detroit’s defense is hanging by a thread, Chicago might struggle to score with nobody out there.
46. Houston +3 Kansas City (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Houston is a reasonable matchup, KC is a weekly 3 point team and you have the bonus of Mahomes being banged up.
47. Tampa Bay -4 Dallas (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
Dallas passing defense is just so so so bad, facing a red-hot Baker should be an easy win.
48. Tennessee +3.5 Indianapolis (2 Stars) ***LOSS***
I gave Tennessee a bump-up for sitting Will Levis and the defense promises they are playing hard.
49. Miami -0.5 SF (2 Stars) ***WIN***
I just don’t have faith in SF and Purdy to play well, even if their passing defense can be decent. The production just isn’t there and this isn’t really a “get right” game. Granted – Miami can’t beat good teams, which is why I played them this week. See what I did there?
>>>> WEEK 15 <<<<<
38. Pittsburgh +6 Philadelphia (4 Stars) LOSS
It is disappointing they will have to go without George Pickens – who really opens things up – but Pittsburgh continues to be money as an underdog and we’re at 6 POINTS here!! The Steelers will keep this one close too even if they can’t seal the deal. Steelers are simply underrated and have been all season.
39. Green Bay -2.5 Seattle (2 Stars) ***BIG WIN***
Should be something of a slam dunk that Green Bay pulls this out, so I’ll risk the odds of a 1 or 2 point win.
40. Arizona -6 New England (2 Stars) ***BIG WIN***
You would think I’d have learned by now not to trust Arizona, but apparently I haven’t. They do get a major step down in competition this week though.
41. Dallas +3 Carolina (2 Stars) ***BIG WIN***
Dallas plays better on the road. I don’t like their odds of winning but sure – this one should be a last second victory for someone and love the 3!
>>>> WEEK 14 <<<<<
33. Chargers +3.5 Chiefs (4 Stars) ***WIN***
Chargers are better on both sides of the ball, and the Chiefs increasingly are failing to protect Mahomes. I would say the Chargers will win but…well, it is the Chiefs.
34. Minnesota -5 Atlanta (3 Stars) ***WIN***
A lower-tier top team against a top-tier bad team. I think they’ll win by 8 or more.
35. Arizona -3 Seattle (3 Stars) LOSS
These two scrappy teams feel similar, but the Cardinals are much more real than the Seahawks are, and this should show.
36. Miami -6.5 NY Jets (2 Stars) LOSS {ot -6}
Good chance this one won’t even be close.
37. Pittsburgh/Cleveland Over 44 (2 Stars) LOSS {43 points}
By the numbers, 44 is pretty reasonable. But if you watched these teams last week, the odds this becomes a wild shootout seem surprisingly high! I have liked Pittsburgh Over with Russell Wilson and Cleveland is just an over every week now that they have a gunslinger again.
>>>>> WEEK 13 <<<<<
30. Pittsburgh +3 Cincinnati (5 Units) ***WIN***
Can’t believe we’re getting the 3 on Pittsburgh…AGAIN! It’s like the Chiefs, same thing every week.
31. Arizona +3.5 Minnesota (3 Units) ***WIN***
Arizona actually played a closer game than it seemed last week, they’ve played well overall and James Conner just got a new contract to boot!
32. Philadelphia +2.5 Baltimore (3 Units) ***WIN***
I think Baltimore will squeak this out by 1 or 2 – probably – and Derrick Henry will have some attitude in response to all the love Barkley just got last week as the “#1 Rb”. I’m not a huge believer in this one but the computer has spoken that this has value.
As for the rest of the slate, I think you can flip a coin on many of them. A couple upsets I particularly like are the 49ers to play with a +6.5 chip on their shoulder and beat Buffalo, and don’t be surprised if Atlanta is a trap game for San Diego. well….just a comment!
>> GOBBLE, GOBBLE <<<<<
28. Green Bay -3 Miami (4 Units) ***WIN***
The line is reasonable but I find Green Bay to be (surprisingly) the more explosive team. Add in Miami’s historical flaws – that they lose every big game, they play poorly in cold weather, they can’t win close games – seems like if you think THIS time will be different…
29. LA Raiders +13 Kansas City (3 Units) ***WIN***
If you look at this game as odds to win, +13 certainly does represent that there is NO confidence the Raiders walk out with a victory. However, Kansas City has also given us NO confidence they will win a game by 14+ points. For years, they have relished in keeping games within a TD and managing victories and there is enough juice in the Raiders stat sheet to make me think this will another “close” victory.
As for the other two games, I like Detroit at -9.5 but it doesn’t interest me unless it comes down a bit more. I won’t even watch NY Giants vs Dallas, but you have to like the Giants as a dog simply because they can run the ball a lot better. Can Dallas even win a home game?
>>>>> WEEK 12 <<<<<
21. Arizona +1 Seattle (5 Units) LOSS
Over the last few weeks, Arizona has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, excelling both offensively and defensively. And…they are off a bye!
Comment: Lifeless, dumb play on a peaked team.
22. LA Chargers +2.5 Baltimore (3 Units) LOSS
I’m not thrilled about missing the +3, but the way I see it is that if this game is close…the Ravens lose because the Chargers win close games and the Ravens do not! So…I just took this on the money line personally. And I think the Chargers are actually the better team, especially with HF.
Comment: Ravens are basically unstoppable when they bring their A game. JK Dobbins getting injured didn’t help much either.
23. Tampa Bay -6 NY Giants (3 Units) ***WIN***
This is a really fat line for a defense as bad as Tampa Bay. But i’m feeling this one. Tampa gets back their top WR and the Giants voluntarily put in the backup, which is actually a downgrade. Is it worth -6 on the road? Eh. But we know Tampa should score bucketloads of points so we’ll just see if the Giants can.
Comment: This was more of an off-computer pick, but it worked out as expected.
24. Washington -10.5 Dallas (3 Units) LOSS
Another “not cheap” line, but I have no doubt that Jaylen will absolutely rip this Dallas defense to pieces. Sure the last couple weeks were rough, but so were those defenses.
Comment: This was more of an off-computer pick, and it was a disaster.
25. Carolina +10.5 Kansas City (3 Units) ***WIN***
Kansas City doesn’t play to blow out teams. They play to win. And it isn’t like KC is that dominant anyway – they certainly have their own issues they overcome weekly.
Comment: KC did what KC does.
26. Green Bay -6 SF (3 Units) ***WIN***
Honestly, I liked this line with SF Qb playing, It moved a lot with him out but frankly – even WITH Brock Purdy – I wouldn’t take SF +6. Now comes in Allen, all of 2 wins in 9 tries against a high-scoring GB offense.
Comment: That worked out as expected.
27. Chicago +3.5 Minnesota (2 Units) ***WIN***
Purely a computer pick, on Minnesota’s falling ranking with the troubles recently from turnovers etc.
Comment: Computer was right
20. Pittsburgh -3.5 Cleveland (4 Stars) LOSS
One of most punchless offenses in the league will take on a Steeler D that won’t let them run – and not much good will happen when they pass. I don’t know if it gets more easy than this one. And the Browns get a short week to get ready for this? This is a team that just got squashed by the Saints, a team that didn’t even win in the month of October. Don’t be surprised if the Steelers rack up 200 yards on the ground and complete the few passes they bother to throw for huge chunks. The line is laughably low!
Steelers 23, Browns 16
Comment: Wild weather game, Cleveland got some pretty amazing plays from Winston
>>>>> WEEK 11 <<<<<
Honestly not really feeling this slate. A lot of bad teams getting points, probably a case for nearly all of them but I would rather focus on the better dogs and the most solid favorite.
17. Green Bay -5.5 Chicago (3 Units) LOSS
Everyone may recall that the Packers own the Bears. With the Bears reeling going into this one, I don’t see that changing this weekend.
Packers 24, Bears 16
Result: Well…they won didn’t they? Chicago surprisingly had a pulse.
18. Pittsburgh +3 Baltimore (3 Units) ***WIN***
This major divisional game should be a 3 pointer-type affair, so I really like getting 3 here – especially at home.
Steelers 23, Ravens 25
Result: Steelers continue to be money this season, constantly underrated.
19. Kansas City +2 Buffalo (3 Units) LOSS
With the Chiefs down a kicker, I see a lot of value in this game having an awkward score that is likely to end up 1 or 2 points. This may be just as good as KC +3 as a result. Interestingly, I see this total being lower on paper.
Chiefs 21, Bills 20
Result: A TD instead of a FG led to the Bills covering rather than losing by 2. But seemed like I had the right idea here.
>>>>> WEEK 10 <<<<<
11. Arizona +2 NY Jets (5 Units) ***WIN***
It may be a very close game, but if it isn’t – I like Arizona.
Cardinals 20, Jets 17
Result: Went to plan
12. Carolina +6.5 NY Giants (4 Units+) ***WIN***
I think this could be a very high scoring affair in Germany. Carolina’s offense isn’t that bad and the Giants defense isn’t that good. It won’t surprise me if the Panthers win again. I like the over 40.5 for a small 1-unit play or a parlay (loss).
Panthers 21, Giants 23
Result: Went to plan
13. Tampa Bay +6.5 San Francisco (3 Units) ***WIN***
Tampa Bay is too good team to be laying 6.5 points at home, regardless of the opponent and some of the injury setbacks of Tampa. And it isn’t like the 49ers defense is all that!
Bucs 24, 49ers 27
Result: Went to plan
14. Detroit -3.5 Houston (2 Units) LOSS
Detroit is just rolling right now, and Houston isn’t.
Lions 27, Texans 20
Result: Somehow – they won despite throwing the ball to the wrong team all night. I thought I had a shot to cover with OT, but at least I doubled-up at halftime for a push.
15. Denver +7.5 Kansas City (2 Units) ***WIN***
The effort against Baltimore was an outlier – I think they will give the Chiefs a hard time. It is never really a bad idea to take the Chiefs over a TD.
Broncos 19, Chiefs 23
Result: Went to plan
16. Pittsburgh +2.5 Washington (2 Units) ***WIN***
The only thing that moved me to make a pick in this game is Brian Robinson being out again. Probably a complete toss-up type game and you are getting 2.5.
Steelers 24, Commands 23
Result: Went to plan
Bonus: Hard to think that Monday night football won’t be a high-scoring barn burner! Throw 1-unit or 2 on the over 49.
>>>>> WEEK 9 <<<<<
8. Washington -3.5 NY Giants (4 Stars) ***WIN***
Washington stacks up as an elite team no matter how you slice this. Jayden seems like he’s fine after the recent injury and won’t need a “Hail Mary” this weekend. This is a team that has every reason to believe in itself.
Commanders 26, Giants 17
Result: Went to plan
9. Chicago +1.5 Arizona (4 Stars) LOSS
I’m seeing this game very differently – and, honestly, I’m not sure why. At worst, this seems to stack up as an even game whereas – at best – the Chicago defense will be too much for the Cardinals.
Bears 23, Cardinals 15
Result: ugh!
10. Green Bay +3.5 Detroit (2 Stars) LOSS
This seems like a fair line if Love does not play – but, the upside here is Love may play. We already saw this play out favorably last week for Washington, and this is a very big game for the Packers. So I think it is worth a shot here to put money on Green Bay. Keep in mind, with Detroit playing the best football in the league, it is hard not to overrate them.
Green Bay 23, Detroit 26
Result: injury to Love
>>>>> WEEK 8 <<<<<
6. Pittsburgh -6 NY Giants (5 Units) ***WIN***
The Steelers have been underrated by Vegas all year and they are still ascending, having gotten bolstered by Highsmith last week on defense. This is a healthy Steeler defense and they are possibly the league’s best when everyone is out there. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson took the helm last year and showed he can open up the offense quite a bit from the limited but safe production they’ve seen from Fields this season. This game means a lot to Pittsburgh, as they can capitalize on the Ravens loss to take the division lead and join the ranks of the AFC elite – where they belong if Wilson can play well for them.
It’s been a rough week for my debut but I got a great “save the baby” MNF play to ride!
Steelers 28, Giants 16
Result: Like most Steelers games it was ugly and the defense had to bail them out late, but it went about as you might expect. Even the projected score is on the money!!
7. Pittsburgh / NY Giants Over 36.5 (2 Units) ***WIN***
While a healthy pittsburgh defense is a handful for the giants, I think we can pen them in for a minimum of 14 points and probably 17. Feels like a pretty safe prediction that this goes over the lowest number of the weekend – I’ll call it 44.
Pittsburgh 28, NY Giants 16
Result: With TDs constantly called back, it was getting to be a bit of a nailbiter in the 4th but went comfortably over.
Previously:
2. GB -3.5 Jacksonville (4 Units) LOSS
I don’t see why this shouldn’t be a -7.5 point spread. Love should lead Qbs this weekend, huge disparity on defense.
Packers 26, Jags 17
Result: Love injured early, loss by 1/2 point
3. Arizona +4 Miami (3 Units) ***WIN***
Tua is back and we expect a huge lift for the completely dead Miami offense from this. However, the Cardinals project as a better defense and that seems to wash out the expected jump for Miami’s offense for me. I’ll give the Dolphins a couple points here but can’t get to 4 logically.
Dolphins 19, Cardinals 17
Result: Tua was a huge lift as anticipated, but Cardinals still hung in and won.
4. Chicago +1 Washington (3 Units) LOSS
Jayden Daniels may play, but he’s still compromised facing a really tough defense. I think even under the best of circumstances, this was Washington -1 so the question is how far do you move the needle here.
Bears 22, Commandos 20
Result: Like a Bears defender, I was celebrating this win too soon! Jaylen did not seem hurt – at all.
5. Baltimore -8 Cleveland (2 Units) LOSS
It’s a big line so I won’t go too crazy here, but I don’t expect much of a battle.
Ravens 30, Cleveland 16
Result: This one never had a chance, as Cleveland played like a team with a Qb. Winston lit up the Ravens secondary for over 8 yards per pass and 334, 3 TDs, and 0 ints.
BONUS: Denver -11 & Under 41 (1 Unit) LOSS
I’m not really high on either Denver or the Under alone. But with the Panthers having to revert back to Bryce Young against that brutal pass defense – the way I see Denver winning by 11 is simply to shutdown the Panthers and have to score most of that 41 themselves.
Result: Right idea but squeeked over the total as the Panthers scored with a few seconds left in the game.
1. Minnesota -3 LA Rams (3 Units) LOSS
Statistically it could be close but Minnesota advantage in yards per pass and rushing are notable, and should lead to a divergent outcome. Rams play good pass defense on the outside but still gave up 10 TDs in 6 games. It is hard to ignore how little the Rams have found the end zone this year, and they face a pretty stingy Vikings defense that should push this game under the 47.5 total. The Vikings rookie kicker has been red hot and is ready if this becomes a FG exchange.
Vikings 23, Rams 16
Result: Despite putting Cooper Kupp on the trade block and Puka being questionable, both receivers showed up healthy to catch balls for Stafford playing out of his mind, ripping apart a highly-rated Vikings defense.