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The Black Cat's 128K Picks of 2011
2007: 58%
2008: 62%
2009: 49%
2010: 59.5%
2011: 53%
$100 Bet Net: +$117.91
Week 1: 5-2-1 (71.4%) +$263.64
Week 2: 4-4 (50%) -$36.36
Week 3: 6-2 (75%) +$345.52
Week 4: 5-3 (62.5%) +$163.68
Week 5: 6-1 (86%) +$446.97
Week 6: 2-3-1 (40%) -$125.75
Week 7: 3-2-1 (60%) +$72.73
Week 8: 4-3 (57%) +$63.64
Week 9: 5-2 (71.5%) +$258.92
First 64K: 40-22-3 (64.5%) +$1452.99
Week 10: 3-5 (37.5%) -$231.20
Week 11: 3-3-1 (50%) -$28.89
Week 12: 3-5 (37.5%) -$227.24
Week 13: 3-5 (37.5%) -$227.24
Week 14: 3-4-1 (43%) -$138.79
Week 15: 2-6 (25%) -$418.16
Week 16: 3-5 (37.5%) -$227.24
Week 17: 5-3 (62.5%) +$163.68
Second 64K: 25-36-2 (41%) -$1335.08
Overall: 65-58-5 (53%)
Favs: 29-26-2 (53%)
Dogs: 36-32-3 (53%)
BW Official GOW: 9-6-2 (60%)
BW Hilton Contest: 42-37-6 (53%)
Follow @BlackCatNFL for comments during the games on twitter Sundays...
Last week: 0-2
Playoffs: 5-4
SUPERBOWL
I don't have to pick winners. I only pick against the spread. And this game is gonna be close...REAL close. The Giants will score 28 points. The Patriots will score somewhere between 24 and 31 points. The stats figure to be similar, with 2-3 sacks on each Qb, similar yardage tilting slightly to Manning's favor, and 1 or 2 turnovers each...also favoring the Giants. Will this be a repeat of the last superbowl matchup? I personally don't think so, because Brady won't be holding on to the ball trying to hit deep throws all day like he did in the first half of their last superbowl matchup. I say the winner is a bit of a tossup but probably lean slightly in favor of Brady, however at +3 +100 Giants? Its a no-brainer, play the Giants!
CHAMPIONSHIPS
New England -7.5 Baltimore (3 stars)
Yes, the Patriots are drawing another high line but is it high enough? Flacco didn't do much to disprove my prediction that he would struggle against Houston and he'll be outclassed in this one, where Brady should nickle and dime the Ravens for 300 yards easily. The running game will not make up the difference. Brees is gone, Rodgers is gone, there is now only one.
Patriots 31, Ravens 20
San Francisco -2.5 -120 N.Y. Giants (3 stars)
I think the bookies are expecting a lot of action on New York. It seems to me this is about as low a line as one could post. San Francisco will be going old school with a better 4.0 ypc running game that doesn't drop back every play and a sack hounding defense. Yes, Manning will get his yards but he won't be sitting back all warm & cozy like he did most of the day against the Packers. Going from the Packers D to the 49ers D is a huge step up and Manning's willingness to throw picks will be tested by the opportunistic 49ers. There will be some heat and it will cause problems. Manning won't be getting a lot of help from the ground game either, which will be hard pressed to crack 3.0 ypc.
49ers 24, Giants 19
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
San Francisco +3.5 New Orleans (3 Stars)
This one is gonna be REAL interesting!! The unstoppable offense meets the immovable defense. The 49ers have the best defense and the most turnover power in the league, so they are legit. In previous seasons, I wouldn't think twice about taking the 49ers to shutdown the juggernaut offense. In THIS year? Who knows. The game has been so off-the-hook offensively dominated in recent years, and in particular THIS year, does defense even matter anymore? I guess we'll find out. This stacks up as the ultimate battle of O vs. D and the Saints showed a tremendous amount of heart and desire last week. Just contrast Brees going for that 4th and 1 with Elway-like determination with Atlanta's Matt Ryan, who acted like he was in a preseason contest. So this is not an easy spread to take, but the value points to the 49ers, who have a legitimate chance in this game not even accounting for the Saints struggles on the road to perform anywhere close to how they do at home.
Saints 24, 49ers 23
New England -13.5 Denver (3 Stars)
I have a bit of buyers remorse on the Steelers last week, but only because the line was so nose-bleed high and the Steelers were tremendously riddled with injuries. Now, unless the Patriots bus gets struck by lightning, that shouldn't be an issue this weekend. With Doom pressuring Brady all day and the Broncos moving the ball at will against that lame Patriots defense, the Patriots don't stand a chance....of losing that is! C'mon, if Tebow is Superman, those rings on Brady's fingers might as well be filled with Krytonite! The entire AFC has fallen and the Patriots are heading to the Super Bowl.
New England 37, Denver 17
Houston +7.5 Baltimore (3 Stars)
The AFC *must* have a 2nd round upset, and since it won't be Brady going home, it may be time to say goodbye to Baltimore. Sure the Texans lack a Qb, but the same could be said for Baltimore. Both teams figure to struggle to crack 200 yards in the air so it'll be a battle of running games. If it comes down to defense, don't assume the Ravens have an edge on the Texans as they are fairly even despite the Ravens reputation. Don't expect an exciting game, but do expect a competitive one.
Houston 20, Baltimore 17
New York Giants +7.5 Green Bay (1 Star)
I'm not a huge fan of this game as a wager, but beware the resurgent Giants! A rematch of Patriots/Giants in an eerily familiar path seems quite possible. The Giants sieve-like defense is tightening up for the playoffs just as they did in 2007, and they tested against the Packers just like they did against the Patriots that year. The Giants have the firepower to outthrow AND outrush the Packers, so this is no joke. Both Qbs figure to be in the 300s. And Jacobs, when he is on his game, can be an awesome wrecking ball. All that being said, I think the line is about where it should be.
Packers 28, Giants 26
WILD CARDS
I am issuing 2 star predictions on all three of the wild card games! I am disregarding that event in Houston.
Saints -10.5 smack the Lions 35 to 23
I would set this line around 12.5 points. I see the Lions defense doing something ungodly stupid in this game. Let's face it, if you can't contain Aaron Rodgers backup, what is Drew Brees going to do to you, especially as a follow-up to last year's wild card embarrassment against the Seahawks?
The Falcons +3 and Giants battle to a 24-23 finish
While it appears the Giants have a slight edge to prevail, the Falcons stingier defense gives them a statistical edge as the slightly better team. This line is also off about 2 points.
Steelers -8 smack Tebowtown 23-13
While valuewise it seems bizarre to have a home team getting 8 points in a playoff game, the Broncos snuck through the backdoor to get here. The Bronocs really don't have as good a defense as people think and can't generate turnovers. And their offense may be an absolute disaster against the run-stuffing Steelers and their #1 ranked pass defense. The Steelers could support a line as high as 10.
WEEK 17 RESULTS
121. Seattle +2.5 +100 Arizona GOW LOSS (Push on BW +3)
As long as Marshall Lynch is playing for a new contract, I'll ride with him. Arizona had a good little run there, but they seem to be out of gas.
122. Green Bay +3.5 Detroit (5 stars) ***WIN***
If I were Detroit, I'd want to win this so I could play the Giants next week rather than New Orleans, but who knows what they think. I don't think it matters, because I think the Packers will win this home game. If they are smart, they probably want Detroit to play New Orleans too and get rid of one of the few good offenses in the NFC. Expect Green Bay to do just enough to win.
123. Atlanta -11 Tampa Bay (4 stars) ***WIN***
After Green Bay beats Detroit, expect Atlanta to do their part by putting away the miserable Buccaneers, who have tanked all of December already.
124. Carolina +8.5 New Orleans (4 stars) LOSS
This is the kind of game I've been losing for weeks now, but I'm counting on the Saints lack of incentive to beat the living crap out of the Panthers to lead to a cover that probably should happen. It doesn't hurt that the Panthers are finishing on a role and have an offense that will definitely put points up.
125. Miami -3 NYJ (3.5 stars) LOSS
The hot dolphins take on the horrible Jets, who have something to play for. It won't matter, even the Dolphins have enough to put the Jets out of their misery.
126. Houston +1.5 Tennessee (3 stars) ***WIN***
In a battle of "who wants it less", I'll go with the home team looking to get something positive going against a pretty bad opponent.
127. KC +3 +100 Denver (3 stars) ***WIN***
Flip a coin on this one, but its hard to imagine Denver winning by anything more than a field goal using the Tim Tebow formula. I should probably make this the pick of the week just because of the likelihood this one goes to the wire or Denver simply gets the crap beat out of them by Green Bay's #1 nemesis.
128. SD +3 Oakland (3 stars) ***WIN***
Flip the coin on this one too, but I don't give the Raiders much of an edge because they have something to play for. Knowing them, that'll just result in more penalties. The Chargers will likely approach this as their playoff game, and Philip Rivers is probably giddy he managed to slip in as a "Pro Bowler" by some miracle combination of bad Qb play and massive Qb injuries in the AFC. Heck, he may even be the starter after the other two don't show.
WEEK 16 RESULTS
114. Dallas -1 Philadelphia (4 stars) LOSS
After storming out of the gate with Michael Vick, we should see the real Eagles emerge, and that's not a good thing. Dallas has a real problem with their RBs and the Eagles do not struggle getting rushing yards, so keep an eye on that situation. But I think after many debacles in recent weeks, this is where Dallas asserts themselves and makes a playoff push.
Boys 24, Eagles 22
115. Detroit -2 San Diego (4 stars) **WIN**
Two teams that are quite capable of shooting themselves in the foot go head-to-head in a high stakes game. This one could be interesting! San Diego is no stranger to late surges and they are having one right now, but they face a pretty devastating offense from Detroit. Who knows what you will get from these two teams defensively! And Norv Turner is the master of special teams disasters. I'm banking on the Detroit Lions in this one to get their stuff together heading into a very likely playoff spot.
Lions 27, Chargers 22
116. Atlanta +7 New Orleans (3.5 Stars) LOSS
This one should be a wild one and Drew Brees figures to demand an even larger premium as we approach game day and anticipation builds to a Dan Marino-breaking game. Which, he very well should have. So conventional wisdom is the Saints will win this one in style and cover points. However, I'll remain a value player here and I see the Falcons having a great deal of success through the air as well. I think this could be an exciting shootout.
Saints 26, Falcons 23
117. Jacksonville +7.5 Tennessee (3 Stars) **WIN**
Both teams were horrendous last week with the Titans losing to the Colts. Jacksonville played on a short week struggling with injuries and it showed. But now the Titans are off a long week and this is a pretty fat spread against a team they matchup with fairly well. After all, the Titans passing game doesn't exactly scare anyone and the running game is unreliable.
Titans 20, Jags 16
118. Minnesota +7 Washington (2.5 Stars) **WIN**
Old is new again as the Redskins have found some life behind Grossman and an effective rushing attack. But the Skins are still a team in disarray and a win over the Minnesota mess is far from certain. Peterson is back for his second game and while their air attack doesn't even match up with the Redskins that well, the Skins are NO Saints, that's for sure!
Redskins 20, Vikings 17
119. NYJ -3 +100 NYG (2 Stars) LOSS
Both teams enter with egg on their faces as they battle for New York supremecy. Frankly, its hard to know what you're going to get from either team on any given Sunday. The Giants can't stop a broken clock from ticking and the Jets often can't get their batteries going on offense. There is enormous pressure on both of these teams to win if they aren't going to fail this season. Sorry Giants, I just don't think this is going to be your year, no matter how well Manning plays to carry this squad.
Jets 30, Giants 25
120. Denver -3 +100 Buffalo (1.5 Stars) LOSS
C'mon, what would a 2011 Black Cat column be without another TIMMY TEBOW pick! Buffalo remains an absolute mess, Denver can run for a zillion yards. If Tim Tebow does not win this game, I guarantee you Christmas will be cancelled!! Even getting hammered by an overzealous New England team, the Broncos didn't look too bad last week. The Bills are *no* Patriots! They are one of the league's most reliable turnover machines.
Denver 24, Buffalo 20
113. Houston -6 Indianapolis (5 Stars) **GOW LOSS**
Indy has got the notch in the belt while the Texans got belted, but this short week should result in something a bit more familiar. Thursday night football has been bad for me and its not good going against the home teams, but if there was ever a home team to go against...
Texans 24, Colts 13
WEEK 15 RESULTS
106. Houston -5.5 Carolina (4 Stars) LOSS
It doesn't seem to matter who is alive in Houston's offense, this offense just seems to keep clicking. And against the leagues leakiest defenses, why should this change? Houston can't afford not to play this game, as their patchwork squad needs the work.
Texans 26, Panthers 16
107. Denver +7.5 New England (3.5 Stars) LOSS
Gotta love getting so many points at home with this excited, enigmatic team. While there is little doubt the Broncos are taking a knife to a gun fight, expect the Broncos to do their best to keep things close enough for Tebow to...BLOW IT.
Patriots 27, Broncos 22
108. Buffalo -2 Miami (2 Stars) LOSS
I took Miami in the Hilton contest, but I've changed my mind. With Jake Long out, the coach out, and playing the Bills team that probably haven't won since they blanked the Redskins, I think Miami throws in the towel.
Bills 20, Dolphins 17
109. Seattle +3.5 Chicago (2 Stars) **WIN**
Chicago is without their most valuable player, and it showed big time last week. No running game, no Qb, no line...no offense! Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch looks absolutely incredible.
Seattle 16, Chicago 12
110. Minnesota +7.5 +100 New Orleans (2 Stars) LOSS
Peterson is back, and he's there for a reason.
Saints 23, Viking 19
111. NYJ +2.5 +100 Philadelphia (2 Stars) LOSS
Vick collapses under the relentless pressure of the Jets D.
Jets 23, Eagles 20
112. Cleveland +6.5 Arizona (2 Stars) **WIN**
Ok, 'zona keeps squeaking out these games and will likely squeak out another one, but enough to cover the spread?
Angry Birds 20, Browns 14
105. Jacksonville +12.5 Atlanta (3.5 Stars) **GOW LOSS**
It shouldn't surprise you that I'm riding the Jags again against the better-late-than-never Falcons getting a fat 12.5 points!
Falco 20, Jags 12
WEEK 14 RESULTS
97. Jacksonville +3 Tampa Bay (5 stars) **WIN**
Jacksonville seems like they are a bit healthier for this game than anticipated. While Monday night was an absolute disaster including the worst field goal attempt in the history of the NFL since the Redskin/Dolphins superbowl...the Bucs present a more palatable challenge. This would have been the GOW if it had been on the board. Well, maybe.
Jags 20, Bucs 14
98. San Francisco -4 Arizona (3.5 stars) LOSS ***GOW*** (jags not on the board)
My game of the week has died 2 weeks in a row, which would be like the Packers dropping their next 12 games straight. So its time to go to the well in double-fashion: taking the 49ers and picking against the Cardinals. Can't really go wrong there, can I?
49ers 21, Cards 13
99. Miami -2.5 -120 Philadelphia (3 stars) LOSS
This feels almost like a stupidity test. Somehow, you look at this game and feel drawn to picking the dream team, but while their nightmare festers, the Dolphins have done nothing but destroy everyone. I was relunctant to pull the trigger last week because I just didn't see where the offensive production was going to come from, but another stellar performance has bumped up their numbers.
Dolphins 24, Eagles 14
100. Detroit -10 Minnesota (2 stars) LOSS
The Vikings seem less healthy than anticipated earlier in the week, and I just don't see how the Vikings keep pace with a still-strong Lions offense. This is the worst offense the Lions have had to face in a while.
Detroit 32, Vikings 21
101. Atlanta -2.5 -115 Carolina (2 stars) ***WIN***
Atlanta can run, Carolina can't stop the run. This feels like it falls right in the Falcons wheelhouse!
Falcons 26, Panthers 20
102. Houston +3 -120 Cincinnati (2 stars) ***WIN***
Yes, everyone you ever heard of on the Texans is totally dead but still not sure you can keep the Texans out of field goal range, even if they can not punch it into the end zone.
Bengals 21, Texans 19
103. KC +10.5 NYJ (2 stars) LOSS
The Jets could not stop Tebow. How could they possibly hope to contain Palco?
Jets 20, Chiefs 12
104. Denver -3 -120 Chicago (2 stars) PUSH
The Bears have lost their top Qb and their top Rb now, and stopping Tim Tebow could lead to eternal damnation in the afterlife. The lord giveth, and the lord taketh away...from the Bears!
Tebows 20, Bears 15
WEEK 13 RESULTS
89. Detroit +9 New Orleans ***GOW*** LOSS
90. Jacksonville +3 San Diego (3.5 stars) LOSS
91. Chicago -7 KC (3 stars) LOSS
92. Tennessee +2.5 Buffalo (2.5 stars) ***WIN***
93. Dallas -4.5 Arizona (2 stars) LOSS
94. Cleveland +7 Baltimore (2 stars) LOSS
95. San Francisco -13.5 St. Louis (2 stars) ***WIN***
96. Seattle +3 Philadelphia (2 stars) ***WIN***
WEEK 12 RESULTS
81. SF +3.5 Baltimore GOW LOSS
82. Seattle -3 Washington (4 Stars) LOSS
83. Denver +5.5 San Diego (3.5 Stars) ***WIN***
84. New York Giants +7 New Orleans (3.5 Stars) LOSS
85. Chicago +3 Oakland (3 Stars) LOSS
86. Detroit +6 GB (3 Stars) LOSS
87. Carolina -3.5 Indianapolis (2.5 Stars) ***WIN***
88. Cleveland +7 Cincinnati (2 Stars) ***WIN***
WEEK 11 RESULTS
74. Chicago -3.5 -105 San Diego *****GOW WIN****
75. Seattle +3 -115 St. Louis (4.5 Stars) ***WIN***
76. Dallas -7 Washington (4 Stars) LOSS
77. Philadelphia +5.5 New York Giants (3.5 Stars) ***WIN***
78. Cincinnati +7 -120 Baltimore (3 Stars) PUSH
79. Minnesota -1 Oakland (2.5 Stars) LOSS
80. Carolina +7 -120 Detroit (2 Stars) LOSS
WEEK 10 RESULTS
66. Jacksonville -3 -115 Indianapolis *****GOW WIN*****
67. Carolina -3.5 Tennessee (4*s) LOSS
68. San Francisco -3.5 New York Giants (4*s) ***WIN***
69. Houston -3.5 Tampa Bay (4*s) ***WIN***
70. Atlanta PK New Orleans (3*s) LOSS
71. Buffalo +5.5 Dallas (2.5 *s) LOSS
72. Minnesota +13.5 Green Bay (2.5 *s)LOSS
73. San Diego -7 Oakland (2*s) LOSS
WEEK 9 RESULTS
59. Cincinnati +2.5 -105 Tennessee ***** GOW WIN
60. SF -4 Washington **** WIN
61. Atlanta -6.5 Indianapolis **** WIN
62. KC -4 Miami **** LOSS
63. Buffalo -2.5 -120 NY Jets **** LOSS
64. Chicago +7.5 Philadelphia *** WIN
65. Houston -10.5 Cleveland *** WIN
WEEK 8 RESULTS
52. San Francisco -8.5 Cleveland ***** GOW WIN
53. Baltimore -12 Arizona **** LOSS
54. Dallas +3 Philadelphia **** LOSS
55. Cincinnati -2 Seattle *** WIN
56. Pittsburgh +2.5 New England *** WIN
57. Buffalo -4 Washington ** WIN
58. Indy +8.5 Tennessee ** LOSS
WEEK 7 RESULTS
46. Pittsburgh -4 Arizona **GOW WIN**
47. New York Jets PK San Diego **WIN**
48. Seattle +3 -115 Cleveland PUSH
49. Detroit -4 Atlanta LOSS
50. Baltimore -8.5 Jacksonville LOSS
51. Chicago -1 Tampa Bay **WIN**
WEEK 6 RESULTS
40. Buffalo +3.5 -120 NYG **GOW WIN**
41. New Orleans -6.5 Tampa LOSS
42. Carolina +3.5 -115 Atlanta LOSS
43. Washington +3 Philadelphia LOSS
44. Oakland -7 Cleveland PUSH
45. Green Bay -14 StL **WIN**
WEEK 5 RESULTS
33. Oakland +5 Houston **GOW WIN**
34. Buffalo +2.5 +100 Philadelphia **WIN**
35. Cincinnati -1 Jacksonville **WIN**
36. Tennessee +3.5 -115 Pittsburgh LOSS
37. Green Bay -5.5 Atlanta **WIN**
38. San Francisco -2.5 -120 Tampa Bay **WIN**
39. Detroit -5 Chicago **WIN**
WEEK 4 RESULTS
25. Tennessee -1 Cleveland **GOW WIN**
26. SF +9.5 Philadelphia **WIN**
27. Oakland +6 New England LOSS
28. Miami +7 San Diego LOSS
29. Washington -3 +100 StL **WIN**
30. Seattle +4.5 Atlanta **WIN**
31. Denver +12 Green Bay LOSS
32. Houston -3.5 Pittsburgh **WIN**
WEEK 3 RESULTS
17. Buffalo +7 New England **WIN**
18. Arizona -3.5 +100 Seattle LOSS
19. Baltimore -5 StL **WIN**
20. KC +14.5 San Diego **WIN**
21. Oakland +3 NYJ **WIN**
22. Cincinnati -2.5 SF LOSS
23. Denver +7 Tennessee **WIN**
24. New York +8.5 Phily **WIN**
WEEK 2 RESULTS
9. Washington -4 Arizona LOSS
10. Cleveland -2.5 Indianapolis **WIN**
11. NY Giants -5.5 StL **WIN**
12. Chicago +6.5 -105 New Orleans LOSS
13. Cincinnati +3.5 Denver **WIN**
14. Seattle +14.5 -115 Pittsburgh LOSS
15. Carolina +9.5 Green Bay **WIN**
16. Jacksonville +8.5 N.Y. Jets LOSS
WEEK 1 RESULTS
1. Buffalo +5 **WIN**
2. Indianapolis +9 LOSS
3. Cincinatti +6.5 **WIN**
4. Carolina +7 **PUSH**
5. Minnesota +8.5 **WIN**
6. Chicago +1.5 Atlanta **WIN**
7. Pittsburgh +1.5 Baltimore LOSS
8. Oakland +3 +100 Denver **WIN**
THE BLACK CAT'S TAKE FROM 2010 on $100 bets was over $2000!!!!
$100 Bet Net for 2010: +$2149.862010 ended with 18 of final 22 picks winning for 82%!
Total: 92-67-3 (58% by record, 59.5% by win total)
Favs: 43-30-1 (59%)
Dogs: 49-37-2 (57%)
My official 2010 Bettorsworld Game-of-the-Week record is 13-8 (62%), which was something like 5th place overall.
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