The Patriots are back in a familiar place in the AFC title Game, which they have made for the 8th straight season. However, this time they are on the road and slight underdogs facing Kansas City and their dynamic offense. New England throttled the L.A. Chargers in their last Game 41-28 and while 13 points does not seem like that bad of a loss the Pats were up 38-14 after three quarters. Not only was Tom Brady great as usual, but rookie RB Sony Michel came up big and WR’s James White and Julian Edelman combined for 248 receiving yards.

The big question for New England is can they keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have the top offense in the NFL.

The Chiefs crushed the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 last week where the team was great on both sides of the ball. They have all the weapons and while their D has taken their knocks this season they kept Andrew LUck and Indy in check. Mahomes had a big Game in the first match up with the Pats this season passing for 353 yards with 4 TD, but he was picked off twice and that was key. KC is at home this time around with the earlier loss this season to the Patriots in New England and they were 7-1 at home this season while the Pats were only 3-5 on the road.

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chiefs are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 55.5.

This season the Patriots are 10-7 ATS with an O/U record of 6-11 and the Chiefs are 10-6-1 ATS with an O/U record of 10-6-1.

These teams met this season in mid-October in New England where the Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40.

The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Games facing the Patriots.

In the Patriots win over the Chargers last week they racked up 498 yards while the Chargers had 335 yards and they rushed for 155 yards while holding L.A. to only 19 yards on the ground. On top of that they forced two turnovers and did not commit any.

Brady was his usual playoff Brady in the win over L.A. passing for 343 yards with one TD and no picks. White tied a NFL playoff record with 15 receptions and Michel rushed for 129 yards with 3 TD. The Pats had a great Game-plan facing the Chargers and you can bet they will have a good one for KC.

While the Chiefs only rank 2nd to last in the league defending the pass and 27th defending the run they only GAve up 266 total yards, iNCluding 87 rushing yards, in their Divisional Round win over the Colts last week.

Patrick Mahomes is the likely MVP and while he did not have ant TD in the win over Indy he passed for 278 yards and was not picked off. Travis Kelse and Tyreek Hill combined for 180 receiving yards and RB Damien Williams rushed for 129 of the Chiefs 180 rushing yards in the Game. KC will be facing a New England defense that stuffed the run against the Chargers and held them to only 14 points through three quarters. Overall, the Pats rank 22nd in the league defending the pass and 11th defending the run.

Patriots ATS Trends

8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff Games

2-7 ATS in their last 9 AFC title Games

19-8 ATS in their last 27 Games facing a team with a winning record

Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 playoff Games

Chiefs ATS Trends

2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Games

2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff Games

6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games following a straight up win of more than 14 points

Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 Games

Jason’s Pick: tough call in this one watching both of last week’s Games with both teams impressing. Still, even on the road can’t go against Brady and company. The Pats may not win and advaNCe to the Super Bowl, again, but they will, at least, cover the spread in what I think will be a close Game much like the regular season Game between the top two seeds in the AFC.

Bettorsworld Pick – Well, here we are again. The AFC Championship is here and oNCe again the Patriots are on the verge of yet another Super Bowl. Unreal. Amazing. You can be sure this feat will never be duplicated. Not in the NFL. Not in any professional sports league. In fact, the NFL is designed these days in a way that is supposed to prevent this from happening. Yet here we are.

Some may say, how you can bet against the mighty Patriots in this spot? All of the Playoff experieNCe. Brady, Belichick, the Dynasty, etc. Certainly, anything can happen here. These are two very good football teams and both are deserving of this shot. I can’t imagine there’s anyone anywhere that would be shocked with the outcome no matter who wins.

There’s so many ways to pick apart a Game. So many stats, so many trends. But sometimes you just have to, what’s that saying? KISS…….Keep It Simple Stupid.

If there’s one simple edge to be had here, it’s in the location of this Game. Sure, both teams deserve to be here, but only one of these teams earned the right to be playing this Game at home and that’s the Kansas City Chiefs and guess what? It matters.

Sure, the Pats have played in the last 7 AFC Championships, winning 4 and losing 3. Of those 7 Games, 5 were in Foxborough where the Patriots went 4-1. Two of those Games were on the road, both in Denver and the Patriots lost them both. (Yes, Tom and Bill can lose big Games).

If home field makes a differeNCe in the playoffs, it’s the Championship round where that really shows. Home tams are 66-30 straight up historically in this round and they cover at a 57.4% clip.

We mentioned last week that while many had the Chiefs defense pegged as one of the worst in the league, that may not have been true and we used their home yards per point  numbers to illustrate that. At home, the Chiefs defense was actually one of the best when it came to allowing opponents to convert yards into points. They helped us show Our readers what we meant by shutting down Andrew LUck and the Colts, holding them to just 15 first downs and 87 yards rushing.

Another interesting tid bit would be that perhaps the Colts were a bit of a paper tiger coming into last weeks Game as they had one of the weakest Schedules this year. We’re not big on comparing Schedule strength in the NFL. It’s not like college football where the differeNCe is drastic. In the NFL, we’re talking 2 points or so separating all teams. But nonetheless, the Colts Schedule was one of the weakest. But guess whose Schedule was even weaker? Yep, the Patriots.

We like the Chiefs in this Game and we like them mainly because this Game takes place in Kansas City where they have been fantastic this year and where they have been very good on BOTH sides of the ball. They take on a Pats team that was just 3-5 on the road and as pointed out above, were beaten on the road in the AFC Championship the last two times they had to travel for this Game.

Our model has the Chiefs on top 35-28 when using full season data and 32-26 when only using data from the last 7 Games. That sounds about right but if the Chiefs were to put an exclamation point on this win and extend the margin even further late in this Game, we wouldn’t be surprised. Chiefs -3

vs.

Houston Texans

AFC Wildcard

Pick – Trends

1/5/19

By: Jason Green

**Note – All playoff picks will iNClude both Jasons pick as well as Bettorsworld’s Pick.

Indianapolis Colts (10-6 SU 8-7-1 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (11-5 SU 7-8-1 ATS)

In the Saturday AFC Wild Card Game the AFC West champion Houston Texans play host to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts took the last matchup between these teams this season, which was in Houston, and the Texans are the slight home betting favorite. Indianapolis won nine of their last 10 Games on the season and they have won Four straight.

The Colts beat the Tennessee Titans in the season finale to nab the 6th seed in the AFC and it is hard to believe the team made the playoffs after a 1-5 start. Andrew LUck has put up MVP numbers this season and leads an offense that ranks 5th in the league in ppg.

The Texans wrapped up the AFC South with a 20-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in their last Game. They won two of their last three Games of the regular season and they are a balanced team ranking 15th in the league in overall offense and 12th in overall defense. Deshaun Watson had a solid sophomore campaign, but he was sacked 65 times, which was the 5th most sacks ever in a season. However, he has some weapons on the outside and the team can run the ball.

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Texans are a 2 point home favorite with a total of 47.5.

This season the Colts are 8-7-1 ATS with an O/U record of 8-8 and the Texans are 7-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 7-9.

This season these teams split the two Games facing each other with each winning on the road.

The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Games against the Texans in Houston.

In their last Game of the season the Colts were on the road and beat the Tennessee Titans 33-33-17. They outGAined the Titans 436 yards to 258 yards, rushed for 158 yards, and while they committed two turnovers they forced three of them.

LUck passed for 285 yards with three TD and one INT in the win over the Titans and three players had at least 60 receiving yards. Marlon MACk rushed for 119 yards and in the win over Houston on December 9th he only rushed for 33 yards and the Colts still got the W. The main reason was LUck, who passed for 399 yards with two TD and one pick.

MACk is key in the backfield in this Game, but LUck is the player the Houston D cannot allow to have a huge Game. However, the Texans only have a pass defense that ranks 28th in the league while their run D is legit ranking 3rd in the league.

The Texans totally dominated the Jaguars in beating them in their last Game 20-3 where they outGAined them 342 yards to 119 yards. Watson passed for 234 yards with no TD and no INT and was sacked six times. Watson also led the Texans with 66 rushing yards and LAmar Miller chimed in for 56 rushing yards and a TD, but only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Watson passed for 267 yards with a TD and no INT in the Game a few weeks back against Indy and Miller struggled with only Miller only rushed for 33 yards averaging a paltry 2.4 yards per carry.

The Colts rank 16th in the league defending the pass and 8th defending the run.

Colts ATS Trends

6-0 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record

3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing teams from the AFC South

Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 Games

Texans ATS Trends

4-1 ATS in their last 5 home Games

1-5 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record

Over record of 8-3 in their last 11 Games facing a team with a winning record

Jason’s Pick: While the Colts are the 6th seed in the AFC and they are on the road they are still the pick in this Wild Card Game. They are the hottest team in the league, they have covered in their last six Games against a team with a winning record, and they beat the Texans on the road in December. Houston will not be able to contain LUck and Indy will not only cover the spread in this Wild Card Game, but get the win as well.

Bettorsworld Pick – We are going to agree with Jason in this spot. When we run this Game through Our model using full season stats we have the Texans winning by 4. However when we use only the last 7 Games we get the Colts on top by 1. If we narrow it down to only the last 4 Games, the margin iNCreases to Colts by a TD.

What we are seeing with the model is what we all witnessed in person. A Colts team that stumbled out of the GAte 1-5 and then went on a 9-1 run to ultimately end up in this Game.

But history also shows us that generally, to make a run in the playoffs, you need a big time QB. Is Deshaun Watson a big time QB? Well, we just don’t know yet. He’s never played in a playoff Game.

But we do know Andrew LUck has been here before and has taken  a team all the way to the AFC Championship. So based in experieNCe, if we had to pick a QB in this spot, we’re going to pick LUck over Watson.

This should be an entertaining Game. When these two meet, it’s pretty much always a close Game that goes down to the wire.

LUck has his work cut out for him as this Texans defense was one of the best in the league this year when playing at home. We just think LUck finds a way here. Colts +2