The LA Rams will take on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl L111 which will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia. The Game opened as a pick em with a total of 59 but bettors quickly jumped on the Pats pushing the number to -2.5 as of 1/24. Bettors also determined the total was too high as that opener of 59 now sits at 57. Most believe we’ll see New England -3 by kickoff.

Remember, if you don’t have a strong opinion on the Game, there are literally hundreds of other wagers you may be able to find an edge with. The Super Bowl is Prop Bet Heaven and many of the lines on these props are soft. To get started, check out 5 dimes sportsbook along with Wagerweb

Let’s first take a look at Our NFL model’s predictions for the Game. We run 3 different predictions with Our model. One using data from the entire season, one using only the last 7 Games and one using the last 4 Games only. Here are the results.

Full Season – Rams 31 Patriots 29

Last 7 – Patriots 27 Rams 23

Last 4 – Patriots 45 Rams 30

We run the last 7 and 4 as it’s helpful to show current form. Obviously, by the time we get to this point, teams are not the same as they were in September. The above predictions show that the Patriots are potentially peaking at just the right time.

Another stat we like to look at in Our write ups is yards per point. Posted below are the full season ypp numbers as well as both teams away numbers.

Full Season yards per point

Patriots 14.2 – 16.6
Rams    13 – 14.8

Away yards per point

Patriots  16.1 – 15.6
Rams     13.7 – 16.5

Those numbers show us that the Pats defense was the better unit overall while the Rams offense was a bit more efficient than the Pats. The away numbers show us that the Rams performed better on both sides of the ball on the road.

BETTING PERCENTAGES

Betting percentages have become popular over the last decade as another means of analyzing Games. Years ago, if you were to get a hold of the office pool and tally up the percentages and simply bet against everyone else,  you could pretty much assure yourself a profit.

These days, bettors are a little more sophisticated. The internet changed the way we get Our information. Today, everyone has the same info. But betting percentages can still be used to potentially profit.

One popular method is to look for Games where a large percentage of bets have been taken on one team, yet the line moves the other way. This is generally an indication that the sharper money is on the same side as the line move.

But for Super Bowl 53, it looks as though EVERYONE is on the same side and that side is the Pats. A week before the Game, most percentages show 80 to 85 percent of the bets being placed are on the Pats AND 80 to 85 percent of the money being bet is also on the Pats. In other words, sharps, squares, your grandmother, pretty much everyone, is betting the Pats.

It’s safe to say the sportsbooks around the world will be rooting very hard for the Rams on February 3rd.

So, who’s it going to be? Rams? Pats?

This has been a unique year in the NFL. This season, more than any I can recall, it was the offenses that took center stage. There was pretty much zero talk about any teams dominant defense and that’s true in this Game. Both teams should have success moving the ball in this Super Bowl.

17 years ago, the New England Patriots went to the Super Bowl as 14 point underdogs to the Rams, at that time, of St Louis. They went into the Game with a coach who, to that point, hadn’t won anything, and a back up QB who was a 6th round draft pick and was only starting because of an injury to Drew Bledsoe. The Pats went on to win the Game and we have all watched what transpired since then.

But how fitting would it be if the Rams, the very same team the Pats played when it all beGAn, is also the team the Pats lose to when it all ends?

I suppose it would be just as fitting if the Rams were simply losing bookends on each side of this incredible run. This should be a great Game in which both teams will have success offensively. A mistake here, a turnover there, should be the differeNCe. We went against the Patriots in  the first two rounds of the playoffs. We’ve learned Our lesson. Patriots -2.5

vs.

New Orleans Saints

NFC Championship

ATS Trends

Pick

1/20/2019

By: Jason Green

L.A. Rams (14-3 SU 8-8-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (14-3 SU 10-7 ATS)

The Rams are the away underdogs in this NFC title Game and look to avenge a mid-season loss to the Saints. They won their last two Games of the season and changed the tune to their Game in taking out the Dallas Cowboys 30-22 in the playoffs. L.A. ran the ball ragged and with success facing the strength of the Cowboys’ defense, which is their run defense. They rushed for 273 yards while holding Ezekiel Elliot, who won the rushing title on the season, and Dallas to only 50 yards on the ground.

In the first matchup of these teams this season the Saints beat the Rams in New Orleans, which was L.A.’s first loss of the season. The teams were even in yards, but the Saints had the better ground Game. While Drew Brees and Jared Goff are two big-time QB’s the run Game will be key in this Game.

The Saints beat the Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 in their last Game where they came back from 14 points down in the first half. They played great D after giving up two early TD’s and Brees was solid, but New Orleans had a little LAdy LUck on their side. Very late in the Game the Eagles were marching down in Eagles’ territory and the usual sure-handed Alshon Jeffrey missed a catch going right to a Saints’ defender for an INT, which basically killed Philly’s hopes.

The New Orleans’ defense played well and while Brees and the offense put up the numbers they only had 20 points.

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Saints are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 57.

This season the Rams are 8-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 9-8 and the Saints are 10-7 ATS with an O/U record of 7-10.

The home team has covered the spread in the last seven Games between these teams.

The Rams were at home in their win over the Cowboys last week where they outGAined them 459-308 yards and dominated the Game on the ground. After not ending the season well Todd Gurley rushed for 115 yards and a TD and C.J. Anderson, who was not even signed until late in the season rushed for 123 yards and two TD. Anderson has rushed for 422 yards in his last three Games. In the Dallas Game Jared Goff passed for only 168 yards with no TD and no picks.

Goff has the weapons on the outside and nearly passed for 400 yards in the loss to the Saints earlier this season. However, they are much better when they can run the ball, which they did not do in the loss to New Orleans in the regular season. New Orleans ranks 2nd in the league in run defense and only 29th in pass defense, but only GAve up 201 passing yards last week against the Eagles and had two INT.

The Saints outGAined the Eagles 420 yards to 250 yards and only GAve up 49 rushing yards, but the Game was still c.ose until the very end. Brees passed for 301 yards with two TD and one INT and star WR Michael Thomas was HUGE with 171 receiving yards and a TD. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 124 rushing yards and each averaged at least 4.4 yards per carry.

The Rams defense ranks 14th in the league against the pass and 23rd against the run. They stuffed the run facing the Cowboys last week and only GAve up 258 passing yards.

Rams  ATS Trends

1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Games facing a team with a winning record

5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 Games after ACCumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous Game

1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road playoff Games

Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 road Games

Saints  ATS Trrends

0-4 ATS in their last 4 Games

25-7 ATS in their last 32 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record

6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous Game

Under record pf 6-2 in their last 8 Games

Jason’s Pick: The Rams looked good last week and so did the Saints, who had a closer call. This time around in the NFC title Game I look for more of a barnburner like the first meeting. Just like the first meeting both teams will rack up a ton of yards and also like the first meeting the Saints will win and cover. Brees will be the differeNCe maker, as he will have a big Game and in a close Game New Orleans will win and advaNCe to the Super Bowl.

Bettorsworld Pick – The last time these two met, the Saints at one point led 35-14 in the first half. Adjustments were made and the Rams won the 2nd half by a score of 18-10. The Rams pulled to within 3 (38-35) but a Drew Brees to Michael Thomas 73 yard TD pass with 3:52 to go sent the Rams home as 10 point losers.

But the key here, is that adjustments were successfully made and now the Rams have even more film and even more adjustments to potentially make. Point being, we’d be very surprised if the Saints were to pull out in front 35-14 again. We expect this Game to be tight with both teams having some offensive success. If we’re right about how the Game plays out, then you absolutely have to give the Rams some serious consideration in this spot.

This has been an NFL season where offense has taken center stage. More so than any other NFL season I can recall, and I’ve seen most of them. There’s not a dominant overall defense among the final 4 teams, though each teams defense has had it’s moments.

But consider this. The Rams defense has performed better on the road than the Saints defense has at home. At home the Saints have given up an average of 24.3 points per Game. Now, that’s not very good. In fact, there were only 8 teams worse in the NFL. The Rams however, on the road, were 6th best in the NFL giving up on average 19.9 points per Game.

Full disclosure – we don’t “love” this Game. But the feeling here is that this is a last team has the ball wins type of a set up and that being the case, the +3.5 could just be a bonus. Rams +3.5

vs.

L.A. Rams

Divisional Round

NFL Pick

ATS Trends

1/12/2019

By: Jason Green

Dallas Cowboys (11-6 SU 9-8 ATS) vs. L.A. Rams (13-3 SU 7-8-1 ATS)

Note – Jason’s pick below – the Bettorsworld Pick by Friday

The Cowboys have won three in a row and eight of their last nine Games. They got over years of playoff disappointment with a home win over the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card round and they lead to LA LA LAnd as 7-point underdogs facing the Rams. Dallas has Ezekiel Elliot, who led the league in rushing this season, and a defense that ranks 7th in the league. That D will be tested in this Game facing a Rams’ team that has the league’s 2nd ranked offense.

After losing two Games the Rams rebounded and won their last two Games of the season. They have the offense with Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, but the defense is a coNCern. They GAve up at least 30 points in two of their last three Games and overall they only rank 19th in the league on defense.

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Rams are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 49.

This season the Cowboys are 9-8 ATS with an O/U record of 8-9 and the Rams are 7-8-1 ATS with an O/U record of 8-8.

These met last season in Dallas where the Rams beat the Cowboys 35-30.

In the Wild Card round of the playoffs last weekend the Cowboys were at home and they beat the Seattle Seahawks 24-22. They outGAined Seattle 380 yards to 299 yards, outscored them 14-8 in the 4th quarter, and they rushed for 164 yards while only giving up 73 rushing yards.

Dak Prescott passed for 226 yards with a TD and a pick and Amari Cooper was his main target with 106 receiving yards. Elliot was the big star in the Game not only rushing for 137 yards, but also making Four catches for 32 yards. The Rams’ defense ranks 14th in the league against the run, but only 23rd against the run, which is, obviously, a major coNCern facing Elliot.

In their last Game of the regular season the Rams were at home and beat the San Francisco 49ers. They were outGAined 391 yards to 377 yards, but they forced Four turnovers while not committing any.

Goff passed for 199 yards with Four TD and no INT in the win over San Fran and Brandin Cooks and Josh Reynolds combined for 117 receiving yards and Four TD. Todd Gurley did not play in the 49ers Game resting his injured knee. He had been in the MVP debate, but in his last two Games he only rushed for 76 yards.

Dallas’ defense ranks 13th in the league against the pass and 5th against the run. Their pass rush only had the 19th most sacks in the league and their pass rush will be key facing Goff.

Cowboys ATS Trends

2-5 ATS in their last 7 road playoff Games

6-13 ATS in their last 19 Games facing a team with a winning record

Under record of 22-7 in their last 29 road Games

Rams ATS Trends

1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home Games

0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Games facing a team with a winning record

Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 home Games

Jason’s Pick: The Rams did not look great in their last few Games of the season, but after throwing five INT in two Games Goff was not picked off in his last two Games. He will play well and Gurley will as well, but the Rams will not be able to contain Elliot. The Cowboys will keep this Game close and while I don’t see them winning in L.A. they will cover the spread getting seven points.

Bettorsworld Pick – We mentioned in the Chiefs write up how home field didn’t mean much in the Wild Card round last week. Well,  home field hasn’t been all that important in this round either, especially from a betting standpoint. ACCording to The Gold Sheet, road dogs are 32-23-2 since 2004 in the Divisional round.

Certainly the Rams aren’t  known for having a great home field edge. True, they were 7-1 this year at home, but that record was compiled as a result of being very good (offensively) and zero to do with LA being a difficult place to play for road teams.

But keep in mind, teams don’t do well at home strictly because of stadium advantages. They also do well at home because other teams don’t do well on the road. That’s the case with the Dallas Cowboys. We think the Cowboys are an average team to begin with. Somehow, they managed to go 7-1 at home and were also able to win there in the Wild Card round. But on the road, they were a 3-5 team and simply not very good.

Let’s take a look at the home yards per point numbers for the Rams and the road numbers for the Cowboys.

Cowboys road = 18.7 – 16.7
Rams Home   =  12.2 – 13.5

The Cowboys 18.7 offensive yards per point number for the is the worst of all playoff teams and one of the worst in the NFL (only the Jags, Bills and Raiders were worse). It shows a huge difficulty in turning yards into points on the road. While the Rams 12.2 offensive number shows the ease of which they were able to find the end zone.

The Cowboys defensive number is good. Certainly better than the Rams. However, the Rams aren’t here because of their defense.

Here are the Cowboys points scored on the road this year – 8, 13, 16, 17, 27, 22, 0, 36.

Here are the Rams points scored at home this year – 34, 35, 38, 29, 36, 54, 23, 48.

You can discard the Cowboys 36 points against the Giants in the final week of the season in a meaningless Game. Now, compare the two. The Cowboys point production on the road was anemic. While the Rams couldn’t be stopped, with the exception of the Eagles holding them to 23 in their only loss at home all year.

The Cowboys are going to try to play their Game, run Ezekiel Elliott often, control the clock, keep the Rams offense off the field and as a result, keep the Game low scoring. In theory, that sounds great. But not too many teams have been able to pull that off this year.

What happens when the Rams put a few points on the board and the Cowboys can no longer play their Game? Do we trust Dak Prescott to air it out and go head to head with Goff and the potent Rams offense?

The Rams were a playoff team a year ago. We think they take the logical step of advaNCing this year. Should they do so, it’s likely they’ll get the cover here. Rams -7