The Patriots are back in a familiar place in the AFC title Game, which they have made for the 8th straight season. However, this time they are on the road and slight underdogs facing Kansas City and their dynamic offense. New England throttled the L.A. Chargers in their last Game 41-28 and while 13 points does not seem like that bad of a loss the Pats were up 38-14 after three quarters. Not only was Tom Brady great as usual, but rookie RB Sony Michel came up big and WR’s James White and Julian Edelman combined for 248 receiving yards.

The big question for New England is can they keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have the top offense in the NFL.

The Chiefs crushed the Indianapolis Colts 31-13 last week where the team was great on both sides of the ball. They have all the weapons and while their D has taken their knocks this season they kept Andrew LUck and Indy in check. Mahomes had a big Game in the first match up with the Pats this season passing for 353 yards with 4 TD, but he was picked off twice and that was key. KC is at home this time around with the earlier loss this season to the Patriots in New England and they were 7-1 at home this season while the Pats were only 3-5 on the road.

At 5Dimes sportsbook the Chiefs are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 55.5.

This season the Patriots are 10-7 ATS with an O/U record of 6-11 and the Chiefs are 10-6-1 ATS with an O/U record of 10-6-1.

These teams met this season in mid-October in New England where the Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40.

The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven Games facing the Patriots.

In the Patriots win over the Chargers last week they racked up 498 yards while the Chargers had 335 yards and they rushed for 155 yards while holding L.A. to only 19 yards on the ground. On top of that they forced two turnovers and did not commit any.

Brady was his usual playoff Brady in the win over L.A. passing for 343 yards with one TD and no picks. White tied a NFL playoff record with 15 receptions and Michel rushed for 129 yards with 3 TD. The Pats had a great Game-plan facing the Chargers and you can bet they will have a good one for KC.

While the Chiefs only rank 2nd to last in the league defending the pass and 27th defending the run they only GAve up 266 total yards, iNCluding 87 rushing yards, in their Divisional Round win over the Colts last week.

Patrick Mahomes is the likely MVP and while he did not have ant TD in the win over Indy he passed for 278 yards and was not picked off. Travis Kelse and Tyreek Hill combined for 180 receiving yards and RB Damien Williams rushed for 129 of the Chiefs 180 rushing yards in the Game. KC will be facing a New England defense that stuffed the run against the Chargers and held them to only 14 points through three quarters. Overall, the Pats rank 22nd in the league defending the pass and 11th defending the run.

Patriots ATS Trends

8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff Games

2-7 ATS in their last 9 AFC title Games

19-8 ATS in their last 27 Games facing a team with a winning record

Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 playoff Games

Chiefs ATS Trends

2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 Games

2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff Games

6-2 ATS in their last 8 Games following a straight up win of more than 14 points

Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 Games

Jason’s Pick: tough call in this one watching both of last week’s Games with both teams impressing. Still, even on the road can’t go against Brady and company. The Pats may not win and advaNCe to the Super Bowl, again, but they will, at least, cover the spread in what I think will be a close Game much like the regular season Game between the top two seeds in the AFC.

Bettorsworld Pick – Well, here we are again. The AFC Championship is here and oNCe again the Patriots are on the verge of yet another Super Bowl. Unreal. Amazing. You can be sure this feat will never be duplicated. Not in the NFL. Not in any professional sports league. In fact, the NFL is designed these days in a way that is supposed to prevent this from happening. Yet here we are.

Some may say, how you can bet against the mighty Patriots in this spot? All of the Playoff experieNCe. Brady, Belichick, the Dynasty, etc. Certainly, anything can happen here. These are two very good football teams and both are deserving of this shot. I can’t imagine there’s anyone anywhere that would be shocked with the outcome no matter who wins.

There’s so many ways to pick apart a Game. So many stats, so many trends. But sometimes you just have to, what’s that saying? KISS…….Keep It Simple Stupid.

If there’s one simple edge to be had here, it’s in the location of this Game. Sure, both teams deserve to be here, but only one of these teams earned the right to be playing this Game at home and that’s the Kansas City Chiefs and guess what? It matters.

Sure, the Pats have played in the last 7 AFC Championships, winning 4 and losing 3. Of those 7 Games, 5 were in Foxborough where the Patriots went 4-1. Two of those Games were on the road, both in Denver and the Patriots lost them both. (Yes, Tom and Bill can lose big Games).

If home field makes a differeNCe in the playoffs, it’s the Championship round where that really shows. Home tams are 66-30 straight up historically in this round and they cover at a 57.4% clip.

We mentioned last week that while many had the Chiefs defense pegged as one of the worst in the league, that may not have been true and we used their home yards per point  numbers to illustrate that. At home, the Chiefs defense was actually one of the best when it came to allowing opponents to convert yards into points. They helped us show Our readers what we meant by shutting down Andrew LUck and the Colts, holding them to just 15 first downs and 87 yards rushing.

Another interesting tid bit would be that perhaps the Colts were a bit of a paper tiger coming into last weeks Game as they had one of the weakest Schedules this year. We’re not big on comparing Schedule strength in the NFL. It’s not like college football where the differeNCe is drastic. In the NFL, we’re talking 2 points or so separating all teams. But nonetheless, the Colts Schedule was one of the weakest. But guess whose Schedule was even weaker? Yep, the Patriots.

We like the Chiefs in this Game and we like them mainly because this Game takes place in Kansas City where they have been fantastic this year and where they have been very good on BOTH sides of the ball. They take on a Pats team that was just 3-5 on the road and as pointed out above, were beaten on the road in the AFC Championship the last two times they had to travel for this Game.

Our model has the Chiefs on top 35-28 when using full season data and 32-26 when only using data from the last 7 Games. That sounds about right but if the Chiefs were to put an exclamation point on this win and extend the margin even further late in this Game, we wouldn’t be surprised. Chiefs -3

The LA Rams will take on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl L111 which will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia. The Game opened as a pick em with a total of 59 but bettors quickly jumped on the Pats pushing the number to -2.5 as of 1/24. Bettors also determined the total was too high as that opener of 59 now sits at 57. Most believe we’ll see New England -3 by kickoff.

Remember, if you don’t have a strong opinion on the Game, there are literally hundreds of other wagers you may be able to find an edge with. The Super Bowl is Prop Bet Heaven and many of the lines on these props are soft. To get started, check out 5 dimes sportsbook along with Wagerweb

Let’s first take a look at Our NFL model’s predictions for the Game. We run 3 different predictions with Our model. One using data from the entire season, one using only the last 7 Games and one using the last 4 Games only. Here are the results.

Full Season – Rams 31 Patriots 29

Last 7 – Patriots 27 Rams 23

Last 4 – Patriots 45 Rams 30

We run the last 7 and 4 as it’s helpful to show current form. Obviously, by the time we get to this point, teams are not the same as they were in September. The above predictions show that the Patriots are potentially peaking at just the right time.

Another stat we like to look at in Our write ups is yards per point. Posted below are the full season ypp numbers as well as both teams away numbers.

Full Season yards per point

Patriots 14.2 – 16.6
Rams    13 – 14.8

Away yards per point

Patriots  16.1 – 15.6
Rams     13.7 – 16.5

Those numbers show us that the Pats defense was the better unit overall while the Rams offense was a bit more efficient than the Pats. The away numbers show us that the Rams performed better on both sides of the ball on the road.

BETTING PERCENTAGES

Betting percentages have become popular over the last decade as another means of analyzing Games. Years ago, if you were to get a hold of the office pool and tally up the percentages and simply bet against everyone else,  you could pretty much assure yourself a profit.

These days, bettors are a little more sophisticated. The internet changed the way we get Our information. Today, everyone has the same info. But betting percentages can still be used to potentially profit.

One popular method is to look for Games where a large percentage of bets have been taken on one team, yet the line moves the other way. This is generally an indication that the sharper money is on the same side as the line move.

But for Super Bowl 53, it looks as though EVERYONE is on the same side and that side is the Pats. A week before the Game, most percentages show 80 to 85 percent of the bets being placed are on the Pats AND 80 to 85 percent of the money being bet is also on the Pats. In other words, sharps, squares, your grandmother, pretty much everyone, is betting the Pats.

It’s safe to say the sportsbooks around the world will be rooting very hard for the Rams on February 3rd.

So, who’s it going to be? Rams? Pats?

This has been a unique year in the NFL. This season, more than any I can recall, it was the offenses that took center stage. There was pretty much zero talk about any teams dominant defense and that’s true in this Game. Both teams should have success moving the ball in this Super Bowl.

17 years ago, the New England Patriots went to the Super Bowl as 14 point underdogs to the Rams, at that time, of St Louis. They went into the Game with a coach who, to that point, hadn’t won anything, and a back up QB who was a 6th round draft pick and was only starting because of an injury to Drew Bledsoe. The Pats went on to win the Game and we have all watched what transpired since then.

But how fitting would it be if the Rams, the very same team the Pats played when it all beGAn, is also the team the Pats lose to when it all ends?

I suppose it would be just as fitting if the Rams were simply losing bookends on each side of this incredible run. This should be a great Game in which both teams will have success offensively. A mistake here, a turnover there, should be the differeNCe. We went against the Patriots in  the first two rounds of the playoffs. We’ve learned Our lesson. Patriots -2.5