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Answer for freak and 'j' re scalping

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  • Answer for freak and 'j' re scalping

    freak and 'j' posed questions about scalping. 'j' asked what to do if team A was -125, team B was +130 and he had $1000 to wager.

    To get the general result you have to set it up algebraically.

    Let F be the amount you are going to wager on the favourite and let D be the amount you are going to wager on the dog. Let f be the payoff on the favourite and let d be the payoff on the dog. By payoff I mean for example that if you are betting the favourite at -125 then you lay 125 to win 100 and the payoff will be 225 / 125 or 1.8 dollars per dollar bet.

    If the favourite wins you want your profit on the favourite to cover your loss on the dog and vice versa. The optimal result is for your profit to be the same no matter what happens.

    The equations you have to solve are:

    F + D = 1000
    Ff = Dd

    Solving you get

    D = 1000 * f / ( f + d )
    F = 1000 * d / ( f + d )

    Using 'j's numbers you get

    f = 225 / 125 = 1.8
    d = 230 / 100 = 2.3
    f + d = 1.8 + 2.3 = 4.1

    D = 439 (rounded off to nearest dollar)
    F = 561

    You can check the result. If the favourite wins the profit is Ff or 1009.80 If the dog wins the profit is Dd or 1009.70 In both cases you've turned a profit albeit not a huge one.

    AussieVamp2 said exactly what I am saying here but he didn't give as much detail.

    'mute

  • #2
    Yeah, only put in all the steps in your equations when they make you.

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    • #3
      Vamp:

      Enjoy your posts tremendously and have two questions for you:

      1) What do your Chi-squares and regression coefficients tell you about the upcoming NFL season?

      2) In Aussie rules fball, when the guy in the lab coat and Panama hat with the overly acute index fingers comes running out from under the goal, is he signaling a score or ordering one raspberry scone and one cup of Earl Grey for the tea timeout?

      Make mine a Fosters.

      Regards.

      Gasman

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      • #4
        Have not run many NFL numbers this season yet.

        Could look at a regression of arrests+drug busts per team compared to third down conversion efficiency though.

        A score. 2 fingers = a goal, or 6 points.

        1 finger = a behind, or 1 point.

        Don't like Fosters, particularly, lots of other better CUB products.

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        • #5
          wintermute--Thanks for walking me through that.

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          • #6
            for people that asked recently

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