How significant is the number 3 in football?

[Sharpie]

The number 3 in football is a very interesting and pivotal number. But by how much? Does anyone know what percentage of football games land on the number 3? Also, is it worth middling -3 -110 and +3 1/2 -110? And what about the number 7?

[reno]

Sharpie, as a former full-time professional middler, I know exactly what "3" and every other number, and every middle or "side" in football and basketball--sides and totals and half-times--is worth. But I don't want to give out info about "3" and "7" because it will educate BMs, most of whom are ignorant,lazy copycats.

If you want a big edge in playing and middling, go through the past several years of spreadbooks and determine exactly what every number is worth. This knowledge is power that will pay-off big-time in the long run.

How about baseball,for example. Do you go under 9-and-a-half -125 or 9 even? The situations are almost endless and a true wiseguy always knows what offers the most value in every situation.. The mindless clone joints don't have a clue about baseball totals and throw away endless money because of their ignorance.

[gasman]

Reno:

Just curious. When the NFL adoped the 2-pt conversion were the middlers able to make profits from the margins 2 and 5?

It seemed to me the BMs were a little slow to recognize the new value of the former "dead" numbers but that may have just been my perception.

[MAKO]

In my experience 3 is a number to buy a 1/2 point on, to win or even just to push. I usually have at least 3 accounts for football and have used wwts, galaxy, bowmans, sos, and others. But Bowmans is the only one who will not let you buy on or off of 3. For this reason I no longer use them, anyone else feel this way.

[Jeff K]

I usually pick up around 6 wins/pushes per NFL season, by buying on/off 3. 15%-20% of the games fall on 3 per season. 7 has not been as productive over the last several years, but last year it was. Try to find a book that offers no more than -125 off 3.

[reno]

Jeff K is right on. He's done his homework. Don't buy off or on any number other than "3" in the NFL. It's not worth it.

[ajax50]

RENO ITS NOT WORTH IT AT 20 CENTS FOR A HALF POINT BUT WHAT ABOUT BUYING HALF POINT FOR 15 CENTS. THERE ARE BOOKS THAT DO THAT.

[reno]

"7" falls about as often as "6," around 6% to 7% of the time, slightly less than half as much as does "3." At 7%, you'd be microscopically ahead if you paid 15 cents for a half point on or off the number, and you'd be microscopically behind if you paid 20 cents to buy on or off.

[BillS]

Mako, I didnt know Bowmans let you buy points how many do they let you buy?

Also I have noticed victor Chandler lets you buy up to 3 points i think, and will not let you buy off a 3 according to what it says on their site

[MAKO]

Bills, bowmans lets you buy a half point so long as it isn't on or off of 3, and they will only let you buy one 1/2 point for 10 cents. I haven't used them lately but might use them because of their reputation. As long as the game does not have a 3 point line.

[Jeff]

Since it's football season...........a thread like this is never dated..

[mls]

The references to Bowmans are certainly "dated."

This time last year Bowmans was still a decent book. Now, for reasons detailed all over this forum's archives, Bowmans is a joke ...

[AussieVamp2]

and another question related to this

That is the percentage of a game landing that particular way, but what is the percentage of the favorite actually winning by 3, 7, etc., as opposed to the underdog?

This is something I have not got around to looking at yet.......

[This message has been edited by AussieVamp2 (edited 08-05-2000).]

[reno]

Aussie Vamp 2, because there are relatively few games in the NFL, the percentages will vary from season to season. Although I don't have exact percentages, the moneylines associated with these spreads indicate what the linesmaker thinks their chance of winning the games are. 3-point favorites are usually -150 to -170 on a 20-cent line. This means that 3-point favorites are expected to win games outright approximately 60% of the time. 7-point favorites are usually in the
-250 to -350 range on a 50-cent moneyline. This means that 7-point favorites are expected to win games outright approximately 70% of the time.

[REALITY]

GENTLEMAN,

OF ALL GAMES IN THE N.F.L. 18% FINISH IN WITH A MARGIN OF VICTORY OF 3 REGARDLESS OF THE SPREAD.

OF THE GAMES WHERE THE LINE IS ACTUALLY 3 THEY LAND ON 3 14% OF THE TIME THUS MAKING 3 THE MOST DANGEROUS NUMBER IN THE N.F.L.

IT DOES NOT CARRY NEARLY THAT MUCH WEIGHT IN COLLEGE.

N.F.L.TOTALS THE MAIN NUMBER IS 37.

REALITY OVER AN OUT!