How significant is the number 3 in football?

[Segundo]

Reality, what sample space are you using? Did you use opening or closing numbers or did you use both? I have run the numbers on these for the last 10 years and I have a lower number.

[REALITY]

SEGUNDO,

I WASN'T HAPPY WITH THE NUMBERS AS PRESENTED ON P.24 I BELIEVE OF ROXY'S GUIDE TO BOOKMAKING SO IN 1997 I HAD A DATABASE SERVICE RUN A QUERY ON THIS AND SOME OTHER QUESTIONS I HAD REGARDING MARGINS OF VICTORY IN THE N.F.L. AND COLLEGE,AND IN PRO AND COLLEGE BASKETS.

IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY IT WAS A 15 YEAR SAMPLE BASED ON THE CLOSING NUMBER.

I LEFT IT FOR THE B.M. AT THE LAST SHOP I WORKED IN .

THESE NUMBERS I WOULD BELIEVE WOULD BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE TWO-POINT CONVERSION.

WHAT DO YOUR NUMBERS REFLECT?

REALITY

[Segundo]

11% and I included all games that got to 3 whether or not they closed at that number. 2 point conversion has made the number three stronger, that's all I would like to say about this, get in touch with me when you get to Vegas and I'll show you the rest, provided reno is invited and I pay so that you guys don't fight over the bill.

[REALITY]

SEGUNDO,

YOUR INVITED TO DINE WITH RONBETS,SCOTTY,SHARK AND I'M SURE A HOST OF OTHER COLORFUL CHARACTERS THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN ENJOYABLE EVENING.

I JUST BLEW MY HORN ABOUT PICKING UP 10 DIMES IN ACCOMODATIONS,HOW WOULD IT LOOK IF I LET YOU PAY?

GOD PUT MR.REALITY ON THIS EARTH TO PICK UP CHECKS.

I'LL PAY.

VERY CLASSY OF YOU TO OFFER THOUGH.

RENO,BLEW HIS CHANCE FOR A PLACE AT THE TABLE.

WHERE I COME FROM IT IS AMONG THE HIGHEST HONOR TO BREAK BREAD WITH SOMEONE.

SEE YOU IN THE DESERT,

REALITY

[reno]

REALITY, I hate to be the fly in the ointment--especially when you're purporting to be the ointment--but your statistics regarding '3' make no logical sense to me. According to the statistics you presented, games in general fall on '3' 18% of the time, but, if the line is '3, the likelihood of the game falling '3' is only 14%. That is entirely contrary to logic. If the line is '3,' why would the game be less likely to land on '3' then if the line otherwise?

[REALITY]

Originally posted by reno:
REALITY, I hate to be the fly in the ointment--especially when you're purporting to be the ointment--but your statistics regarding '3' make no logical sense to me. According to the statistics you presented, games in general fall on '3' 18% of the time, but, if the line is '3, the likelihood of the game falling '3' is only 14%. That is entirely contrary to logic. If the line is '3,' why would the game be less likely to land on '3' then if the line otherwise?

FOR EXAMPLE ONLY:

IF THE POPULATION SAMPLE IS 2000 GAMES OVER A 15 YEAR PERIOD THE MARGIN OF VICTORY WAS 3 REGARDLESS OF THE POINTSPREAD .18% OF THE TIME:

2000 GAMES X .18%=360 GAMES WITH A FINAL WINNING MARGIN OF 3 POINTS.

OF THE GAMES WHERE THE LINE WAS ACTUALLY 3 THE GAME LANDED 3 .14% OF THE TIME.

200 GAMES WHERE THE LINE WAS 3

200 X.14%= 28 GAMES LANDING ON 3.

THESE FIGURES ARE FOR ILLUSTRATION ONLY AND ARE NOT THE ACTUAL FIGURES.

[zippy]

Do you mean that, for all games, the percentage where one team, regardless of whether it was the favorite or the underdog, won by 3 points was 18%? And for just those games with a 3 point spread, the percentage where specifically the favorite won by 3 points (i.e., pushed against the spread) was 14%?

[BBKing]

that does seem contrary to what would be expected but if i am not mistaken my numbers were similar. games with a 3pt spread fell on 3 less than games with all other spreads. weird. and also, games can fall on 3 either side and i think the numbers were like 60% of the time it came up on the "good" 3

[AussieVamp2]

so after all that, then we are looking at roughly 60% of the time a 3 point result will end in a win of 3 for the favorite? (being the important one)

[hiptwo]

aussievamp2, check the little fuzzy guy. under power+ than know your lines. only goes back to 96 but you can even see how a team did.

[This message has been edited by hiptwo (edited 08-06-2000).]

[a ghost]

The shouting illiterate bookmaker's numbers are wrong, and then the posturing racist whoremonger misinterprets them. This is what happens when you're so busy beating your chest that you have to rent a programmer.

The actual percentages are as follows:

Percentage of all games landing on 3: 14.5% since 1983, 16.2% since 1990

Percentage of all games going off at 3 that landed on fav by 3: 11.7% since 1983, 12.3% since 1990

Reno fails to grasp that Reality's second bad number (claiming that 14% of games going off at 3 land on 3) refers only to games won by the favorite, that is, games that would push the sides line, whereas Reality's first bad number (claiming that 18% of all games land on 3) refers to the entire population. The two are not comparable. The actual percentage of games lined at 3 that either the fav or the dog win by 3 is 19.9%, which meets the requirement of being larger than the percentage of all games landing on 3, though why this information should be of interest in the first place is not clear to me.

Want to say how much I enjoy the little sitcom here. Sometimes, like when the one guy is saying how the Japs are all a bunch of quicksquirts and whores, and the other guy is tearfully announcing his absolutely final departure, and then the scvmbag phone tout comes on and gives everybody two weeks of absolutely free phone service -- well, you just don't find that kind of high-quality comedy anymore. Kind of a little miniature America, right here at oddswiz.

[This message has been edited by a ghost (edited 08-06-2000).]

[reno]

A Ghost, I'm unimpressed, particularly because you come across like a venomous, reductionistic simpleton. Your brain may work well in digital, but it's a bit slovenly in analog.

First, stating a stereotypical fact about a particular race is not racism. If I state that more Blacks percentage-wise are in jail than Whites, and that Blacks, on the average, have lower IQs than Whites, that is not racism; it is fact. If you do a survey among Philippine hookers, like I did--and I'm an expert at surveys because my major was sociology--you'll find that Japanese men, on the average, come quicker than Americans and Europeans. If I state that women, in general, are not as physically strong as men, or that they are more emotional and less logical, does that make me a male chauvinist?

Second, it's amazing how unadroitly you announce your entrance into this forum. Let me guess: You used to post under another handle. Oh, by the way, what ever happened to noholdsbarred? Haven't heard from that fella lately.

Second, its no big deal to get exact figures on how often '3' falls. Even a junior high student could go through spread books and figure it out. If you want to impress anyone, come into this forum with something at least a bit profound, like Wintermute did with his exposition on the Kelly money-management system.

Because I haven't bothered to middle football the past 10 years, my figures regarding '3' are not definitive. But,to be perfectly honest, I doubt that yours are, either. I've never seen any figures, including relatively recent ones in Michael Roxborough's "Sports Book Management" that have '3' falling as often as you claim. I'd do hope that some other guys in this forum feel motivated to either corroborate or refute your forum-shaking research.

Finally, do yourself and us a favor, and clean-up your act. Otherwise, you'll be relegated to having complete The Dale Carnegie How to Win Friends and Influence People course.

[TrendSetter]

From the book, "The Winner's Guide to Pro Football Betting", written by Art Glantz in 1983:
FREQUENCY OF MARGINS OF VICTORY
POINTS PERCENTAGE OF OCCURRENCE
3 - 13.69
7 - 8.47
6 - 6.95
1 - 6.33
4 - 5.67
11 - 4.78
14 - 4.78
10 - 4.56
21 - 4.34
13 - 3.47
5 - 3.26
17 - 3.26
2 - 3.00
8 - 2.60
20 - 2.17
16 - 1.95
9 - 1.73
12 - 1.30
15 - 1.30
18 - 1.30
19 - 1.30

[This message has been edited by TrendSetter (edited 08-06-2000).]

[This message has been edited by TrendSetter (edited 08-06-2000).]

[REALITY]

A GHOST,

THIS REQUIRES AN ANSWER THAT REALITY WAS MADE FOR.

ARE YOU READY?

IT SAYS IN YOUR F*****G BIO YOUR A BLOOD DONOR.

IT'S A GOOD THING YOUR POSTING YOUR FIRST POST FROM BEHIND THE SAFETY OF A USERNAME AND A KEYBOARD BECAUSE I MAY NOT BE THE FAVORITE IN BETTORWORLD FOR A LOT OF REASONS BUT THERE ARE SOME THINGS WE DON'T ALLOW AROUND HERE.

FIRST TIME STARTERS WHO COME ON LIKE THEY KNOW WHAT THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT WITH WISE GUY ATTITUDES!

STAY BEHIND YOUR USERNAME AND KEYBOARD.

IN PERSON IF YOU TALKED TO ME LIKE THAT YOU WOULD BE A BLOOD DONOR.

EITHER I'D HAVE YOUR TEETH IN MY POCKET OR I'D BE ON THE WAY TO THE MORGUE...

IF YOUR F*****G WISE MOUTH IS GOING TO SAY MORGUE, BIT YOUR TONGUE FIRST OR TELL ME WHERE AND WHAT TIME YOUR PICKING ME UP!

REALITY

[AussieVamp2]

so, looks like still suggesting around the 60% mark