Scalping Hockey Lines

[Sergius]

The absence of ties this season in hockey--there's been only one--has me thinking that hockey might be good for scalps. Today (Thursday) I noticed the following lines, at separate books:
San Jose: - 1/2 -125
and
Edmonton +180 on the money line.

Looked like a good scalp to me.
My question, to those who know hockey, is: how much of a scalp is needed to guarantee profitability over the long run?How often can we expect to see ties this year with the new rules? And does the likelihood of a tie diminish, the bigger the mismatch?

[Sergius]

Oops--should have posted this in the other forum.

[Sharpie]

You bring a very good point, I am a hockey guru and I was waiting for someone at bettorsworld to discover this phenomenon. Your theory would have been profitable even last year without the new rules as long as you had a 45 cent differntial. This year probably less...

[reno]

This proposition should more properly be termed a "reverse middle," or "reverse middle/scalp." That is because you are getting a scalp at the expense of possibly loing money if the game ends a tie. A pure "scalp" give you a chance to earn with no possibility of losing.

[phaedrus]

"the absence of ties had me thinking"

Well you can forget about the absence of ties, ties in the NHL are here to stay. Just b/c you still get a point if you tie in OT doesn't mean that teams don't have anything to risk by "going for it". In fact if two conference foes are playing each other, although a loss in OT is still worth 1 point, you are in fact LOSING 1 point to your opponent in the standings (they get 2).

That being said the 4 on 4 system will not necessarily mean teams are going to go all out for the win especially in interconference games.


Now out of conference games may be a different story, however the notion that teams can simply score at will (whenever the situation is to their advantage) is also incorrect. What of the possibility that teams will pack it in in the 3rd period in these games to insure a point in the standings? This is certainly equal to the notion of going for it in OT.

Finally the post expansion NHL lacks talented players, the inclusion of Europeans has not made up the difference in adding 4-5 teams. THE NHL IS AND ALWAYS WILL BE A CLUTCH AND GRAB/TRAPPING LEAGUE until some teams fold and the number of teams decreases.

In addition the owners have chosen this year to take a stand on salaries and free agents (look at the number of unsigned skill players out there). And thus the talent in the NHL is furhter weakened.

The tie is here to stay my friends, as is the 3 goal game.

[AussieVamp2]

and the tie asserted itself today quite forcefully, it seems