Middler's Blues

[reno]

Mike1212, a true guru-type middler can take leads before middles or any movemement even exists. He knows which way the public will bet lines. In essence, he handicaps the handicappers rather than the game itself. I used to do it real well in NBA totals when I closely followed the hoops while in Vegas. Now, I'm too busy and too disinterested to follow the league closely enough to do that. However, I did it during baseball and made out real well by being aggressive and taking numbers early or on the overnight line. I'm probably a major reason Bowman's drastically cut their overnight limits in baseball.

When I go for middles now, I first look for certain indicators that I see from line movement to let me know if I want to go for the "original number." Usually, the middles don't yet exist when I take the "original number." Based on my knowledge and experience regarding line movement, I make split-second decisions regarding when to get on and when to get off games. And I make mistakes, just like everyone else. But because I make far more right decisions than wrong ones, I get great middles if great middles are at all possible to get.

In pro football, aside from around "3," no one-point middles are profitable. And the following 1.5 point middles are marginally profitable: 5.5 to 7.0, 0.6% profit. 6.0 to 7.5, 0.6% profit; 9.0 to 10.5, 0.1% profit, 9.5 to 11.0, 1.2%; 10.0-11.5, 1.2%; 12.5-14.0; 1.2%; 13-14.5; 1.2%; 16-17.5, 0.4%. In essence, pro football aside from around "3" isn't worth the time or energy for middling. And college football is even worse. Like I said before, you have a 2.5% edge on 2-point college middles below 6. Above 6, 2 points points isn't even break even. forget any idea of one point middles, like 9.5 to 10.5, that you have. You will just be throwing away your money.

To answer your other questions, I never did scalps between numbers and the moneyline. Usually, you'll find better value in the point spreads because the moneyline juice is so heavy in football. Also,I didn't get that college football game. Middling football is an endeavor that doesn't excite me, and I don't do it anymore. I just don't see enough profit potential to warrant the time.

When one takes leads, there is no guarantee they will turn into scalps in baseball or middles in basketball. That's just the nature of the game. Everyone who regularly takes leads gets burned occassionally.

[brett]

I've read all of the above threads and this is a very interesting topic. I've been glued to my Don Best feed for the beginning of the last two NBA seasons and there is a definite difference in the movement of the totals from last year to this year. Last year they would move 3 sometimes 4 pts. immediately. This year when there's a play it moves only 1 or 2 pts. Sometimes the followers push the # 3 pts. up after while, but the immediate moves our less powerful than last year.
I'm father surprised that you can make $$ middling NBA totals with a 2.5 gap. Two years ago I had a local dream out who wouldn't move an inch and I would continually get 3, 4, and even sometimes 5 pt. gaps on the NBA totals. I middled practically the entire season and made a couple pennies.
On the other hand the last two NFL seasons I've middled 6.5 and 7.5 in the NFL and have been very profitable, especially last year(and also yesterday, i.e.-Jets-Colts) The 3 is almost worthless because you can't buy pts. around it without laying a small fortune.
In regards to this year's college steam moves, the money mover's have definitely been up and down with no significant profits from following there moves and even getting them at there #'s. The moves have been huge. 3 and 4 pt. moves on alot of games.
Ajax50 is definitely on cue when he says you need at least one 5% out because it cuts your juice in half. On a typical 2 pt. middle excluding the sides, you only have to hit one in 30 or one in 40 if you have 2 5% outs. Great topic!

brett

[reno]

Brett, thanks for the interesting and informative input. Although 1.5 pt. middles on basket sides and 2.5 pt. middles on NBA totals are the bare minimum anyone should seek to eke out a profit over the long haul, for a comfort margin, one really needs to get 2 pt. middles on sides and 3 pt. middles in NBA totals. And even then, one can have losing seasons.

Regarding college hoops, I see three major changes that have made it tough beat as a middler or player. The first was rule changes, specifically the introduction of the 3-point shot and time clock. The second was in the late 80s, when LVSC added a college baskets guru to their thinktank. And the third was computerization. The oddsmakers look at Jeff Sagarin's ratings and also have their own computer formula. To beat that kind firepower is not easy. In my mind, college baskets , which used to be the easiest sport to beat, is now one of the toughest. And the failure of the college steam, which used to kill the books in early season, to win the past few years, illustrates this harsh new reality for bandwagoners.

[AussieVamp2]

Funky scalp on a handball game last night

Belarus opened at +15.5 2.30

and a little later were +15.5 1.45

30% not shabby

[Mikes1212]

reno whats up man,,, just to double check you said the other day that in basketball laying 4.5 and taking 5.5 wont cut it. I figure the team thats favorite wins at 12 games so thats 12 times to hit the "5" for the middle. Now lets eliminate all winnings that are more than say 15 because it will be really rare for the game to be a blowout in a 5 pt spread. Now, this would give them 12 chances where the range of the win would be 1 through 15, but in a close spread the odds will decrease of the game ending in the "teens". Well, I guess you can see where im getting at...but if your studies indicate otherwise then I'm certainly not arguing, you know far more than I do,, also...you said you bet each sides of the steam in the NBA because the steams have been worthless,,, so basically you bet the 4.5 spreading thinking it will go up to 6 and then bet the 6 cause it is too much? so really the spread should be 5? also..say you take the game at 4.5 and it only reaches 5.5,, then you would have a mathematical disadvantage.. how do you know the spread is gonna go up enough for you to have the edge? you said you look for indicaters based on your experience.. what are those indicaters? and say you know the 4.5 will go to 6... will you sometimes not lay the 4.5 and only take the 6? Hey thanx in advance any insite you can share would be great

[Mikes1212]

p.s.,,,, the 12 games means 12 out of 20 and all you need is to hit 1 out of 20 to break even in that 1 pt middle

[reno]

Mike1212,

If you go through spreadbooks by hand or use computer databases, you can verify what percentages various numbers fall. When I've done my research, I usually look at the previous 3 years--unless there have been significant rule changes in the sport--and look at games within plus or minus one of the number that I'm researching. Then, when you see what percentage of the time the number falls, you can calculate how large of a middle you need and what percentage profit you can expect.

I realize that some people are math-challenged and can't figure this stuff out. Those people should get databases and pay someone, such as a computer programmer, to do their research.

Wiseguys in the industry know what kind of middles you need to make money. And I can assure you that I never met a professional middler who believed he had an edge getting 1 point middles in the baskets. If 1 point middles generated profits, the sportsbooks would all be in trouble.

The ultimate way to middle is to become a money-mover for a syndicate. Then you can get huge amounts down at the "original number" because you get the moves before they even hit the Don Best Screen. The next best way is to subscribe to the Don Best Premium Service. As I've stated innumerable times in this forum, serious sportsbettors cannot compete without the Don Best service. If you can't afford the $500 each month, you aren't serious.

You don't know for sure that the 4.5 will go to 6.0 There are no guarantees for middlers. And if you wait til you see 6, the 4.5 will usually be long gone. The 4.5 could go to 6.5 or 7.0. Or it may stall at 5.0 or 5.5, as others start buying back. Middling is an art as well as science. And the more you do it, the more you get a feel for when to get on and when to get off numbers.

If I'm playing, like the dog, and the line is, say, 4.5 when the steam hits, I wait til the steam dies and then bet the other side. So, whether you're middling or playing, monitoring line movement is of paramount importance.

[Sharpie]

Reno, i've learned much from reading your threads, and so I will help you out with some hockey information (being Canadian).

I've been reverse-scalp middling in hockey ever since the introduction of the hockey money line (believe it or not, straigt money lines are a relatively new concept in hockey). The reverse-scalp was a brilliant idea, even in the previous years with normal overtimes as games would tie at about 14-15%. This year, with the new overtime rules, one would assume less ties (which is true there have been less ties by %). But one key concept we're missing on when we rate the pk at 35 cents is that that number is obtained by looking at the tie % of the whole league. One cannot fail to remember that closely matched teams are the teams that have a -1/2 +20 and a PK 35 atttached to it. Since these teams are closely matched, they will have more close games and hence more ties. With this assumption, the pick and -1/2 middling will need a 45 cents or more to be considered worthwhile.

[reno]

Sharpie, you make an excellent point. And, in fact, we did begin to think about what you are saying when we were doing reverse/middle scalps and losing money. However, because of time constraints, we didn't have time to fine-tune our research. Consequently, we simply quit for the season and concentrated fully on middling the baskets. However, we'll go back to the drawing board before next season and fine-tune our research. More important, we hope to have sophisticated systems in place for betting hockey next year.

Although I did suffer from "middlers blues," I have finished up strong, shown a nice profit, and plan on giving middling another go next year. Because I'll be seriously betting hoops and hockey and moving money for a couple of big outfits, I might as well take advantage of the great middles I'll get. Especially since I'll be sitting in front of the Don Best Screen all day, anyway.

Also, I'm now really motivated to follow the NBA closely next season and bet the NBA totals on the overnight line. I haven't paid attention at all this year, and have only blindly middled off movement. I'd like to see how well I can do if I pay my dues and take early leads for plays and middles.

I'm now taking off to vacation until baseball season starts. January and February I'll be in the Caribbean (St. Maarten, Curacao, Aruba, and Margarita Island) and the Philippines. Meanwhile, the two computer programmers I work with will slave away doing research. Who said life is fair?

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