NBA season win totals

[randyrohm]

This year I made almost 7 dimes worth of futures bets on NBA win totals. All but 1 of these bets are attempts to middle the totals from different books. Anybody have any success at this? Looks like NYK's and Van are the only realistic shots I have left to hit (Sea way over and Hou way under are already toast). Even if one of these hits it will be a modest return on my money. My question is if I am going to tie up funds for that long shouldn't I be in Oracle or Rambus, or do these routinely land near the number?

[verbalkint]

Im in the same boat, only van w/ a shot left to basically break even. Something was wrong cause it seemed like a sure thing i had a 7 game middle on seattle. Guess when something looks to good to be true...

[Fred]

May i ask, how big were the gaps for these season totals middles? Is 7 a very big gap?

Thanks

[bighands]

keep it going randy....my mentor has told me totals in hoops is the hardest thing to handicap. any feelings on this from the big boys? good luck.

[spider]

Fred,

There were some unusually large gaps this year. Seattle at 34.5 & 42 and Vancouver at 20.5 & 25.5 were the largest I saw. As others have stated, Vancouver is looking pretty good sitting at 19 wins with 14 games left (need to win between 2 and 6). As far as the Seattle middle, it's dead because they will be over 42. In this case I think the 34.5 was a "bad number". Any team with Payton & Baker is going to win more than 34 games.

As far as how often these middles hit I would have to say that a spread of 4 or more would be worth the risk. It just doesn't look like this year is going to turn out to be a good "middling" year.

Speaking of middles, there is a nice middle on the Mariners in baseball with Bowmans having them at 83.5 and several others having them at 78. I know from experience that baseball win totals often fall quite close to the number ... last year I played 8 win total bets with 5 of them coming down to the last weekend and 3 of them coming down to the last day. I was fortunate to have them all fall my way last year capped off by the final day's White Sox / Twins game being suspended keeping the White Sox under their number.

[The Guesser]

We must shop at the same stores, as I'm in kinda the same boat. Vancouver looks Good, and I have outside shots at The Knicks and Philly. All in all it wasn't worth the money tie up. But stupid, stubborn creature that I am, and also the fact that I don't bet individual Baseball Games, I played the following Baseball Total Middles, Balt Over 79.5, Under 84.5, Colorado Over 74 Under 78.5, Milw Over 69.5, Under 74, Pitt over 75, Under 79.5, and Seattle over 78, Under 83.5, as well as KC Over 67.5 and Atl under 96 which I personally like alot.


[This message has been edited by The Guesser (edited 03-23-2000).]

[bbuster]

Spider- Thanks for the insight on Seattle. Wouldve of been a tad bit more useful before the season started though!

[randyrohm]

I wasn't going to try any middles for baseball, but I can't sit around and let you guys have all the fun. Guesser good luck on your plays, where did you find Mil @74? If you don't want to tell the world you can whisper to me [email protected] I like the Braves under the best, Bowmans has 96' right now. good luck to all.

[randyrohm]

Nevermind I found Mil @74, thanks

[DeacDoug]

Hey Randy, this stuff is about luck. Apparently you're not having any, at least not yet, with respect to the hoops totals. However, although Reno could tell you exactly, I'm sure that you have the dge with such big spreads and that eventually you'll hit once or two. The downside is that you tie up your money interest free and that the book or books from which you win could go belly up. Me, I'm an instant gratification kind of guy; can hardly wait two hours for a hoops game to end so that I can experience the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.

[fairfax]

Randy- I bet you wish now you would have bought rambus. +84 yesterday. Amazing

[spider]

Good call bbuster. The only reason I posted the hindsight analysis is because I'm still ticked at myself for not "unloading" on the Seattle over. I was close to doing it and then my buddy talked me into playing the "low risk" middle instead. I did still play a little more on the over but I obviously would have been better off just playing the over and maybe a small amount of action on the middle. As I recall I also became less confident of it being a bad number when I saw the 34.5 posted at a second book (I believe Intertops was the first and WSEX was the second). It made me think "do they know something I don't know". I guess in this case the answer was no.