Boomer's math problem

[sportshobby]

Boomer, there's no problem using 7 and 9 so long as you get a bigger profit spread to compensate.

As far as 1st class citizens, this is only true at some sportsbooks. There are plenty of them out there who do not welcome winners. Heck, there are even quite a few that chase players that just win a FEW games and avoid laying bad numbers.

Then there are the truly classy books that accept even the winners. using their play to balance the books and sharpen their lines. This includes most of the Don Best screen books plus great outfits like SOS, Carib, and WSEX.

[AussieVamp2]

on the profit thing - depends on your scalp margin - are you getting 10, 20, 30 cents?

you can plug those in to the formulae given and see how you are likely to do

if it was just a +110/+110 (I have not checked) in the example given then you would want a bit better to bother if it is a 1% return on that only

[AussieVamp2]

Mort America?

obviously the time difference depends on where you are, and which daylight savings period you are in

from a punting point of view

9 a.m. Friday Eastern Standard Time here is 7 p.m. Thursday Eastern Daylight Savings yankee time

working in the internet/sports industry I am connected a lot, as they say

[AussieVamp2]

mute,

Never seen an online run-line source though, so can't help with that

totals with 1 run wins could check for last year anyway though

lots of people in the x-files lie though of course

[Ronbets]

Wintermute,

I ve been middling baseball since late 70s. Jackie Gaughan was one of the first BMs along with Mel Exber to put these props up. Without going into much detail (you already gave the store away) smile, its beatable. Strictly adherence to guidelines and parameter will get the job done. The total as you mentioned is one of them. Keep up the good research.

[AussieVamp2]

Ok, so here is home favorites -110 or better, performance winning by 2 runs or more
last year

what to do with -105s? how do they choose a runline favorite there? home team??
(Never having looked at them, I would not know)

If they do, this would change and I would need to go back and redo it a little.....

T W L All W% L%
6.5 1 1 2 50.0% 50.0%
7 5 10 15 33.3% 66.7%
7.5 16 20 36 44.4% 55.6%
8 32 41 73 43.8% 56.2%
8.5 92 102 194 47.4% 52.6%
9 118 175 293 40.3% 59.7%
9.5 94 153 247 38.1% 61.9%
10 116 155 271 42.8% 57.2%
10.5 71 119 190 37.4% 62.6%
11 48 65 113 42.5% 57.5%
11.5 19 30 49 38.8% 61.2%
12 8 9 17 47.1% 52.9%
12.5 3 0 3 100.0% 0.0%
13 1 10 11 9.1% 90.9%
13.5 2 6 8 25.0% 75.0%
14 4 13 17 23.5% 76.5%
14.5 9 6 15 60.0% 40.0%
15 2 3 5 40.0% 60.0%


[This message has been edited by AussieVamp2 (edited 06-09-2000).]

[Ronbets]

AV2,

105 pic--Visitor +1.5 -220

105 pic--Home +1.5 -170

Above approximate odds 20cent line up to 190.

BM has option break game either way.

[AussieVamp2]

thanks Ronbets, will just ignore them for now then, seeing don't know which way they recorded those

[AussieVamp2]

so, road favorites similarly -110 or more

T W L All W% L%
6.5 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0%
7 2 1 3 66.7% 33.3%
7.5 8 15 23 34.8% 65.2%
8 20 21 41 48.8% 51.2%
8.5 46 43 89 51.7% 48.3%
9 82 92 174 47.1% 52.9%
9.5 62 72 134 46.3% 53.7%
10 51 66 117 43.6% 56.4%
10.5 51 56 107 47.7% 52.3%
11 36 36 72 50.0% 50.0%
11.5 7 6 13 53.8% 46.2%
12 5 1 6 83.3% 16.7%
12.5 0 0 0 NA NA
13 5 3 8 62.5% 37.5%
13.5 1 1 2 50.0% 50.0%
14 4 4 8 50.0% 50.0%
14.5 3 4 7 42.9% 57.1%
15 1 1 2 50.0% 50.0%

[AussieVamp2]

and overall

T W L All W% L%
6.5 1 2 3 33.3% 66.7%
7 7 11 18 38.9% 61.1%
7.5 24 35 59 40.7% 59.3%
8 52 62 114 45.6% 54.4%
8.5 138 145 283 48.8% 51.2%
9 200 267 467 42.8% 57.2%
9.5 156 225 381 40.9% 59.1%
10 167 221 388 43.0% 57.0%
10.5 122 175 297 41.1% 58.9%
11 84 101 185 45.4% 54.6%
11.5 26 36 62 41.9% 58.1%
12 13 10 23 56.5% 43.5%
12.5 3 0 3 100.0% 0.0%
13 6 13 19 31.6% 68.4%
13.5 3 7 10 30.0% 70.0%
14 8 17 25 32.0% 68.0%
14.5 12 10 22 54.5% 45.5%
15 3 4 7 42.9% 57.1%


[This message has been edited by AussieVamp2 (edited 06-09-2000).]

[Ronbets]

AV2,

The key stat to search here is hometeam favorites winning by 1 run. Also a seperate stat would be road favorites winning by 1 run. You should find that road to home favs frequency similar to odd runs vs even run finals.

[AussieVamp2]

Ronbets, yeah, what I am looking at now thanks

[AussieVamp2]

Here we go from last year

the win column is wins by 1 run for home favorite

(-110 up)

T W L All W% L%
6.5 0 2 2 0.0% 100.0%
7 3 12 15 20.0% 80.0%
7.5 6 30 36 16.7% 83.3%
8 11 62 73 15.1% 84.9%
8.5 36 158 194 18.6% 81.4%
9 53 240 293 18.1% 81.9%
9.5 48 199 247 19.4% 80.6%
10 46 225 271 17.0% 83.0%
10.5 37 153 190 19.5% 80.5%
11 18 95 113 15.9% 84.1%
11.5 6 43 49 12.2% 87.8%
12 5 12 17 29.4% 70.6%
12.5 0 3 3 0.0% 100.0%
13 3 8 11 27.3% 72.7%
13.5 3 5 8 37.5% 62.5%
14 4 13 17 23.5% 76.5%
14.5 0 15 15 0.0% 100.0%
15 1 4 5 20.0% 80.0%

[AussieVamp2]

same as above, but road favorites

T W L All W% L%
6.5 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0%
7 0 3 3 0.0% 100.0%
7.5 6 17 23 26.1% 73.9%
8 4 37 41 9.8% 90.2%
8.5 12 77 89 13.5% 86.5%
9 22 152 174 12.6% 87.4%
9.5 14 120 134 10.4% 89.6%
10 17 100 117 14.5% 85.5%
10.5 15 92 107 14.0% 86.0%
11 7 65 72 9.7% 90.3%
11.5 0 13 13 0.0% 100.0%
12 0 6 6 0.0% 100.0%
12.5 0 0 0 NA NA
13 0 8 8 0.0% 100.0%
13.5 1 1 2 50.0% 50.0%
14 0 8 8 0.0% 100.0%
14.5 2 5 7 28.6% 71.4%
15 0 2 2 0.0% 100.0%

[AussieVamp2]

and overall :-

T W L All W% L%
6.5 0 3 3 0.0% 100.0%
7 3 15 18 16.7% 83.3%
7.5 12 47 59 20.3% 79.7%
8 15 99 114 13.2% 86.8%
8.5 48 235 283 17.0% 83.0%
9 75 392 467 16.1% 83.9%
9.5 62 319 381 16.3% 83.7%
10 63 325 388 16.2% 83.8%
10.5 52 245 297 17.5% 82.5%
11 25 160 185 13.5% 86.5%
11.5 6 56 62 9.7% 90.3%
12 5 18 23 21.7% 78.3%
12.5 0 3 3 0.0% 100.0%
13 3 16 19 15.8% 84.2%
13.5 4 6 10 40.0% 60.0%
14 4 21 25 16.0% 84.0%
14.5 2 20 22 9.1% 90.9%
15 1 6 7 14.3% 85.7%