MOVING ON AIR!!!!!

[thedevil]

Can someone tell me what is wrong when a store moves on air...

Should a sportsbook be sitting on the yanks
-150 when the rest of the world is at -165 because they haven't been hit yet.

If a game becomes hot and a store is sharp enough to move before they got hit are they smart or stupid.

I see nothing wrong with moving a game to the new right number with either a token play or no play at all.

DEVIL

[REALITY]

DEVIL,
YOU MUST LEAVE THE ORIGINAL NUMBER THERE SO YOU DON'T FIND YOUR WAY ON TO RENO'S GUIDE TO CLONE BOOKMAKERS.

IF HE CAN'T BET YOU HOW CAN HE ROB SOME POOR IDIOT WHO OVERMOVES AFTER LOOKING AT THE DON BEST.

I WAS LOOKING FORWARD TO DINNER WITH YOU TO HAVE SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT THE TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE BUSINESS BUT AFTER THAT STATEMENT I JUST DON'T KNOW.

YOU WOULD REALLY MOVE ON AIR???

FOR REAL???

NO KIDDING???

[thedevil]

Reality,

I don't believe in having a clone line. But with my IQ I would never allow myself to be too far away from everyone else.

I'm a firm believer of gambling against a player, but I never liked giving or taking money from a player that takes money from another store, takes a piece for himself and gives me the rest. If I wanted to deal to sharps I would take them all on, not just one or two. But it gets pretty annoying when dealing with all of them, when for five minutes after a game comes out and you've already moved the game a hundred guys call up all ask for the same game and pass.

What I always wanted to do with this kind of player was, give them a local # not an 800 # and let them pay for the call instead of me. Then if they weren't quick enough they wouldn't be wasting my money on a no play call. I bet I've wasted 10's of thousands of dollars on calls where guys knew they had no chance of getting down but thought they could catch me napping.

DEVIL

[thedevil]

Reality,

Don't misconstrue what I'm saying. I have nothing against the Reno's of the world. The way the business is today there are sharp players and sharp bookmakers. There are a few big stores out there with dummys running the show. Some make money inspite of themselves. But you know as well as I that sooner or later their luck runs out and when they do all the pennies that the scalpers take from them get eaten up in one lay down.

DEVIL

[REALITY]

DEVIL,
I HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE.

I WANT THE PLAYER WHO GIVES ME HIS EVERYDAY PLAY TO SCALP ME LIKE SPRINGSTEEN TICKETS AT THE GARDEN.

WHY?

BECAUSE I WANT TO KEEP HIM IN THE GAME.

HE IS THE PLAYER THAT CREATES THE ACTION THAT PAYS FOR THE TREMENDOUS OVERHEAD OF THESE BIG OFF-SHORE PLACES.

SCALPERS DO NOTHING BUT CREATE EXPENSE BECAUSE OF WHAT IT TAKES TO SERVICE THEM.

PLEASE SPARE ME ABOUT INTERNET ONLY SCALPERS.

I STILL NEED CUSTOMER SERVICE PERSONELL TO HELP THEM WHEN THERE IS A PROBLEM,I STILL HAVE TO GIVE THEM A BONUS,I STILL HAVE TO HAVE AN ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT TO PAY THEM,I STILL HAVE TO GIVE THEM A FREE PAYOUT,ETC,ETC.ETC.

PLEASE SPARE ME HOW THEY HELP CREATE TWO WAY BUSINESS BY ALLOWING ME TO WRITE TWO WAY BUSINESS.

IN POINSTSPREAD SPORTS YOU EARN 4.45% WITHOUT SIDES AND MIDDLES.

BASEBALL 2.27% ASSUMING THAT THE DOG WILL WIN 50% OF THE TIME.

LAST YEAR VEGAS BOOKS EARNED A ROBUST 1% IN BASEBALL.

SO PLEASE DON'T TELL ME HOW SCALPERS ARE GOOD FOR BUSINESS.

MIDDLERS LAYING 11/10 TO PLAY THE GAME?

WELCOME SIR,HOW MAY I HELP YOU?

WOULD YOU LIKE SOME COFFEE,A DANISH PERHAPS?

DEVIL,WE WILL TALK.

I AM A TRUE FAN OF THE TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF BOOKMAKING.

I CUT MY B.M. TEETH AS YOU KNOW IN AN OFFICE THAT WAS CRIS BEFORE CRIS EXISTED.

I JUST CAN'T BELIEVE HOW SOMEONE CAN COME IN HERE AND POSTURE ABOUT CLONE JOINTS AND THINK A TRUE PRO IS GOING TO FALL FOR THAT RUSE.

TWO WAY BUSINESS IS GREAT WHEN 11/10 IS INVOLVED ON BOTH SIDES.

NOT IN BASEBALL WHERE GAMES RUN AND EAT UP ANY POSSIBLE JUICE YOU CAN WRITE FROM TWO WAY BUSINESS...

REALITY

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 07-04-2000).]

[bucky]

Sharp lines or loose lines? Don't the players sometimes do the sportsbook a favor when the book changes the odds to get the money? What other tactics do offshore books do to balance their books a little bit when they have a lot of money on one side and they can't get any money on the other side unless they move it to a scalpable type #. Do they give in to the scalper or do they lay it off with other offshore books? Do any offshore books have connections in Las Vegas to help lessen their risk on a side by betting some money on the other side for them.

I wonder what kind of money makes some of these books nervous on a side at risk. Can it get as bad as a 50 dime loss if a certain side wins?

[thedevil]

Reality,

This looks like a two man thread.

Agree with having the everyday player being the guy taking the good numbers. If thats possible.

Maybe we differ in the fact, I would give the sharp the initial bonus but after that if he wanted the privlidge of playing at my joint he would never get another bonus.

I always worked under the assumption that they needed me more than I needed them. I loved to hear them cry that I was putting them on hold.. Some have the attitude that because we take 10 dime bets that we should treat them as if they were sacred cows. Well I was just the opposite, I treated my half dollar and dollar players as if they were the biggest players I had. I never chased anyone, ever but I would slowly lower limits until they left or accepted my lower limits. If I was a charity it would be a different story. But I was brought up that charity begins at home.

As far as cutting my teeth, when I started...I still had my baby teeth.

DEVIL


[This message has been edited by thedevil (edited 07-04-2000).]

[REALITY]

BUCKY,
IN BASEBALL WHERE THERE IS NO JUICE UNLESS THE DOG WINS A B.M.IS BETTER SERVED TO HOLD THE EXCESS IF HIS BANKROLL CAN STAND IT BECAUSE OVER THE COURSE OF THE SEASON HE SHOULD SPLIT THESE DECISIONS.

IF HE SO CHOOSES HE CAN LET HIS EVERDAY PLAYERS SCALP HIM AND EARN,BECAUSE THESE PLAYERS PAY THE BILLS.

THE ONLY PLACE YOU ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN IS A BIG CLEARING HOUSE WHERE YOU PIT THE SOPHISTICATED PLAYERS AGAINST THE SPOHISTICATED PLAYERS AND YOU ARE RESIGNED TO THE FACT THAT YOU MIGHT HAVE A MINISCULE PLUS HOLD FIGURE AT THE END OF BASEBALL.

THAT IS WHAT PROMPTED THE MOVE IN MANY PLACES TO A TWENTY CENT LINE IN BASEBALL.

LAS YEAR VEGAS B.M.'S HELD 1% IN BASEBALL...

REALITY

[thedevil]

Bucky,,

Only the smaller books lay off....

Any book worth its salt sits on all positions....

I doubt if there are any offshores that even take Vegas seriously...

50 dime positions are common place... We may not want them but we get them...

This is not a business for the faint of heart...

As my father told me when I was a kid.... if your afraid, get a dog.. If your really afraid,, get a very big dog...


DEVIL

[REALITY]

DEVIL,
YOU MAKE SOME ASTUTE OBSERVATIONS.

I'M SIGNING OFF AFTER I MAKE MY GOOD MORNING POST FOR RENO.

HOPE THE KING IS UP TO TASK BECAUSE HIS LOYAL SUBJECTS AWAIT HIS TAKE ON A VARIETY OF POSTS.

I HOPE HE DOSEN'T ABDICATE THE THRONE BEFORE RESPONDING....

REALITY

[REALITY]

GOOD MORNING RENO,

LET ME SAY THAT AGAIN.

GOOOOOOOOD MOOOOORNING RENOOOOOOOOOO,

HERE IS WHERE KING RENO IS SURE TO SHINE WITH THE WEALTH OF BOOKMAKING KNOWLEDGE HE HAS PICKED UP ALONG THE WAY FROM HIS MANY BM FRIENDS IN NON-CLONE JOINTS!!!

WRAP ON GRAND MASTER RENO AN ENLIGHTEN DEVIL AND MYSELF TO THE BENEFITS OF NON-CLONING FOR THE BENEFIT OF RENO!

AND OH BY THE WAY, PLEEEEEEEEEAAASE ADRESS THIS ONE POINT BY POINT,OH WISE AND WONDERFUL ONE....

IT'S EASY JUST FILL IN THE BLANKS LIKE I DID WITH BUCKY....

REALITY

Originally posted by REALITY:
DEVIL,
I HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE.

I WANT THE PLAYER WHO GIVES ME HIS EVERYDAY PLAY TO SCALP ME LIKE SPRINGSTEEN TICKETS AT THE GARDEN.

WHY?

BECAUSE I WANT TO KEEP HIM IN THE GAME.

HE IS THE PLAYER THAT CREATES THE ACTION THAT PAYS FOR THE TREMENDOUS OVERHEAD OF THESE BIG OFF-SHORE PLACES.

SCALPERS DO NOTHING BUT CREATE EXPENSE BECAUSE OF WHAT IT TAKES TO SERVICE THEM.

PLEASE SPARE ME ABOUT INTERNET ONLY SCALPERS.

I STILL NEED CUSTOMER SERVICE PERSONELL TO HELP THEM WHEN THERE IS A PROBLEM,I STILL HAVE TO GIVE THEM A BONUS,I STILL HAVE TO HAVE AN ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT TO PAY THEM,I STILL HAVE TO GIVE THEM A FREE PAYOUT,ETC,ETC.ETC.

PLEASE SPARE ME HOW THEY HELP CREATE TWO WAY BUSINESS BY ALLOWING ME TO WRITE TWO WAY BUSINESS.

IN POINSTSPREAD SPORTS YOU EARN 4.45% WITHOUT SIDES AND MIDDLES.

BASEBALL 2.27% ASSUMING THAT THE DOG WILL WIN 50% OF THE TIME.

LAST YEAR VEGAS BOOKS EARNED A ROBUST 1% IN BASEBALL.

SO PLEASE DON'T TELL ME HOW SCALPERS ARE GOOD FOR BUSINESS.

MIDDLERS LAYING 11/10 TO PLAY THE GAME?

WELCOME SIR,HOW MAY I HELP YOU?

WOULD YOU LIKE SOME COFFEE,A DANISH PERHAPS?

DEVIL,WE WILL TALK.

I AM A TRUE FAN OF THE TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF BOOKMAKING.

I CUT MY B.M. TEETH AS YOU KNOW IN AN OFFICE THAT WAS CRIS BEFORE CRIS EXISTED.

I JUST CAN'T BELIEVE HOW SOMEONE CAN COME IN HERE AND POSTURE ABOUT CLONE JOINTS AND THINK A TRUE PRO IS GOING TO FALL FOR THAT RUSE.

TWO WAY BUSINESS IS GREAT WHEN 11/10 IS INVOLVED ON BOTH SIDES.

NOT IN BASEBALL WHERE GAMES RUN AND EAT UP ANY POSSIBLE JUICE YOU CAN WRITE FROM TWO WAY BUSINESS...

REALITY

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 07-04-2000).]

[reno]

Reality, I thought the Theoretical Hold Percentage (THP) in football and basketball was 4.55%. Now you're telling me it is only 4.45%.

What's the difference on the THP if a guy lays -140 on a baseball with you and another guy takes +145 versus a guy laying - 2.5 in the NBA and another guy taking 4.0? Does the 5-cent scalp cost you more or less than the 1.5 point middle?

Updating On Air:

"Updating throughout the day according to action that other sportsbooks handle is an effective way to limit swings at the expense of profit. There may be a liability
level that management desires to stay within, without taking the game off the board. Moving the line without action can accomplish that objective. However, updating defeats the purpose of bookmaking--to write business. Unless the general public is significantly sharper than the line, moving numbers without action costs you profits in the long run" (Michael (Roxy) Roxborough)

And by the way, maybe Scott Shettler, the great Stardust BM, can again repeat what he earlier said in this forum: "The dummies [other sportsbooks] copied our line changes and lost money."

Your statement "The player is scalping you." shows you are a certified genius. The player is, in fact, scalping other players, the squares and bandwagoners who laid a "tweener" number rather than the "original" number. You suffer from "scalper paranoia." Try a session with "the Shrink." Maybe that'll rid you of the disease. If I laid -120 with you and you jumped your line to -135 without taking action at -125 and -130, and I then took the +125 with you, then I would indeed be scalping you. But obviously, that is not the case. Explain to me how, over, say, 22 hypothetical games, if I lay -120 with you, then Bandwagoner #1 lays -125, bandwagoner #2 lays -130, I take +125, and the favorite wins, as projected, 54% of the time, you as a bookie will lose money? In fact, you make money, I make money, and the bandwagoners lose. And, in reality, you will probably get some take buyback before you even get to my + 125. And who cares if I, a scalper, take the + 125, or if someone else grabs it? You hung the number, so who cares who takes it?

And didn't you make millions of dollars as a scalper over 10 years? Now, however, after you buried poor BMs with your scalping, you have found light and redemption by switching to the other side. It is truly a touching story. Hell, maybe I can also save my good-for-nothing scalping soul by becoming a BM.

[bucky]

Devil
Like the dog analogy!!! Reality's post about letting the everyday players scalp you if anybody does because they pay the bills makes sense. If they never make any money they can't come back.
I may be wrong on this but haveing been in Las Vegas 20 times in the last 5 years or so when the line comes out on baseball some of the smaller places downtown will have a good line on a couple of games. It is like they are trying to give away a couple of games to the locals or smaller players to draw them in each day. They don't seem to be real thrilled to have me bet the house limit. on the game.
I have also thought it is much tougher to get a good price on an underdog in Vegas as opposed to offshore. So the holding part makes sense. It also seems like you can get a cheaper price on favorites in Vegas and it is darn tough to come out ahead over the long run.

[REALITY]

RENO,

PLEASE ACCEPT MY APOLOGY FOR THE TYPO AS YOU CAN SEE I HAVE BEEN KINDA BUSY...

4.5% IS CORRECT.

ASSUMING NO SIDES AND MIDDLES IT IS DERIVED BY DIVIDING THE EARN(VIG)BY THE TOTAL HANLDLE.

REALITY

[REALITY]

Originally posted by reno:
Reality, I thought the Theoretical Hold Percentage (THP) in football and basketball was 4.55%. Now you're telling me it is only 4.45%.

What's the difference on the THP if a guy lays -140 on a baseball with you and another guy takes +145 versus a guy laying - 2.5 in the NBA and another guy taking 4.0? Does the 5-cent scalp cost you more or less than the 1.5 point middle?

IT'S APPLES AND ORANGES.

BASEBALL THERE IS ONLY JUICE IF THE DOG BARKS.

FIRST OF ALL I CONTEND THAT BETWEEN PIC AND 5 THE TRUE VALUE OF A HALF POINT IS.15 IN HOOPS.

BECAUSE BETWEEN THESE NUMBERS ARE WHERE SIDES AND MIDDLES OCCUR MOST.

IT ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW THE LINE WAS BET AND MOVED.

DID F.D.PLAY AND DID I MOVE FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 AND THEN TO 4.

OR WAS IT ALL COLD MONEY BET AND MOVED ACCORDING TO THE LADDER PRINCIPLE OF MOVING ONLY WHEN THE HOUSE LIMIT IS REACHED.

HOUSE LIMIT 1O,OOO.

IN VEGAS TODAY THE MANAGER MUST MOVE ACCORDINGLY.

HE IS TOLD HE HAS A HOUSE HOLD OF 1O,OOO ON A GAME,

THAT IS WHAT THE BEANCOUNTERS SAY HE CAN HOLD

IF HE LOSES 50,000 ON A GAME HIS ASS IS COVERED AS LONG AS THE LINE MOVED AS FOLLOWS.

KNIX-2 1O,OOO
-2.5 10,000
-3 10,000
-3.5 10,000
-4 10,OOO


Updating On Air:

"Updating throughout the day according to action that other sportsbooks handle is an effective way to limit swings at the expense of profit. There may be a liability
level that management desires to stay within, without taking the game off the board. Moving the line without action can accomplish that objective. However, updating defeats the purpose of bookmaking--to write business. Unless the general public is significantly sharper than the line, moving numbers without action costs you profits in the long run" (Michael (Roxy) Roxborough)

THIS IS THE SAME ROXY WHO YOU PREVIOUSLY SAID HAD HORRIBLE NUMBERS ISN'T IT?

AND IF YOU READ THE POST A LITTLE CLOSER WHAT HE IS SAYING IS IN ESSENCE MOVING ON AIR OFF TALENT IS OK NOT OFF THE GENERAL PUBLIC.

And by the way, maybe Scott Shettler, the great Stardust BM, can again repeat what he earlier said in this forum: "The dummies [other sportsbooks] copied our line changes and lost money."

WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO SCOTTY WHOSE OPINION I RESPECT THERE WAS A POST WHERE A B.M. CLAIMED TO HAVE WON 8.5% OF THE HANDLE OVER TWO YEARS IN A MAJOR OFF-SHORE BOOK.

SCOTTY SAID HE HAD TO BE GAMBLING TO WIN THAT MUCH % OF THE HANDLE.

I ASSURE YOU HE DID NOT AS I KNOW THIS INDIVIDUAL LIKE I KNOW MY BROTHER, A REAL PRO.

FURTHERMORE,JEFF KNOWS THIS INDIVIDUAL AND IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY HE DESCRIBED HIM AS A STONE COLD BM.AND ATTESTED TO THAT FACT IN THE SAME POST.

Your statement "The player is scalping you." shows you are a certified genius. The player is, in fact, scalping other players, the squares and bandwagoners who laid a "tweener" number rather than the "original" number. You suffer from "scalper paranoia." Try a session with "the Shrink." Maybe that'll rid you of the disease. If I laid -120 with you and you jumped your line to -135 without taking action at -125 and -130, and I then took the +125 with you, then I would indeed be scalping you. But obviously, that is not the case. Explain to me how, over, say, 22 hypothetical games, if I lay -120 with you, then Bandwagoner #1 lays -125, bandwagoner #2 lays -130, I take +125, and the favorite wins, as projected, 54% of the time, you as a bookie will lose money? In fact, you make money, I make money, and the bandwagoners lose. And, in reality, you will probably get some take buyback before you even get to my + 125. And who cares if I, a scalper, take the + 125, or if someone else grabs it? You hung the number, so who cares who takes it?

And didn't you make millions of dollars as a scalper over 10 years? Now, however, after you buried poor BMs with your scalping, you have found light and redemption by switching to the other side. It is truly a touching story. Hell, maybe I can also save my good-for-nothing scalping soul by becoming a BM.

AS USUAL RENO ONLY SEES WHAT RENO WANTS TO SEE.

IF IM IN A HOUSE FULL OF SHARPS THAT IS THE WAY THE GAME IS SUPPOSED TO BE PLAYED .

READ MY POSTS I'M NOT REHASHING IT AGAIN HERE.

MY CONTENTION IS IN A HOUSE OF POST UPS I WANT TO BE SCALPED BY A REGULAR PLAYER WHO GIVES ME OTHER LEGITIMATE WORK.

NOT A SCALPER WHO IS JUST GOING TO PLAY ME WHEN MY NUMBER IS OFF AND PROBABLY GOING TO DO IT FAST ENOUGH TO DEPRIVE MY REGULAR PLAYER THE OPPORTUNITY.