JR Miller's record

[AussieVamp2]

J.R.,

Nothing wrong with nicknames on the internet, a long established tradition. Some people may have a reason not to want to be identified, fair enough as well. Some countries are stupid enough to make betting illegal and/or taxable, for some reason.

I have never hidden mine, and if anyone wants to know for some reason, they can ask.

This is almost as silly as saying where I come from real men have names, not initials.

[Scott Landau]

That was the 'dead nuts' Aussie; and JR, I still have a lot of respect and admiration for you...and the humility to admit that a lot of this thread is way over my head. I'm just glad I have just enough handicapping, scalping/middling, and money management common sense to make this profession worth my while. The most stressful thing in my life is just watching these damn scores come in! Even after 20 years!

[Shawnee]

J.R.

Your comments are appreciated in this forum. However be advised that there is alot of talent here especially in the area of mathematics. Wintermute has proven before that he knows what he is talking about. I suggest you re-evaluate your position regarding Kelly.

Shawnee

[pay2play]

Maybe I've missed something elementary, but I don't see how Mr. Miller's experiment can have validity. It's a deck of cards, meaning dependent trials. Betting sports is a series of independent trials.

Anyway, more importantly, some of the difference of opinion here relates to whether one is handicapping mechanically or by instinct. If by instinct, then the idea of "surety" of advantage is pretty useless. You either like a side or not, maybe sometimes liking it more than others, but in all cases being unable to quantify the size of your advantage. In this case, keeping your bet sizes steady makes sense just to prevent emotionalism from creeping into your decision making.
But in cases where you think you have a systemic advantage, as your sample size increases so does your statistical confidence, and therefore increased bets makes senses, and failing to increase your bets costs you money.
I think simplicity comes in mighty handy in this business. Betting the same amount every time is dangerous and maybe wasteful; trying to vary bet size by advantage as a percentage of BR more dubious than you might think; so keeping a flat percentage of BR might be a happy medium.

Mr. Miller, if you stop posting here, so be it. None of us can ever worry about each other's tantrums. But maybe you should stop to consider that the hottest kitchens often have the best food.

Buena suerte, todos.

[zippy]

Actually, pay2play, I don’t think the element of the experiment that you allude to in your first paragraph is the problem. It’s just a device for ensuring that different bets have different likelihoods of winning. In the real world, the differences in expectation would come from whatever factors skilled handicappers have discovered to be relevant to the outcomes of sporting events, whereas in the experiment, they happen to come from what cards are left in the deck. Granted, this is a disanalogy, but it is not a relevant disanalogy. For the narrow purposes of this experiment, all that matters is that the likelihood of winning varies from bet to bet, not why it does.

[SLAM DUNK]

Zippy, Reno thanks for the support. Would like to echo sentiments about Zippy's writing and everyone's contribution in this thread. I know some of you are not familiar with me. In general, I am very respectful to MOST posters and rarely get involved in the personal attack thing.(Just couldn't resist with Johnny D ). What some of you are failing to realize, but as Zippy mentioned, it was JR Miller that came in here like he is above the rest of us. It was HIS BEHAVIOR that I felt gave me the green light to come on strong. I can do this either way. Anybody wants to play hardball, I will not back down by any means. But I prefer a war of ideas rather than a war of words(name calling). That way everyone learns and benefits. If you look at all the posts the name calling was directed towards me and not initiated by me. Bottom line is I did not start this, I just finished it. Do not want anybody to fear I am going to jump all over them, if I feel they are wrong about something. That is not my style. You come in here with respect and I will treat you with nothing but respect, but if you bring on the attitude, and I feel you are wrong, I will take you on.

[This message has been edited by SLAM DUNK (edited 07-19-2000).]

[sportshobby]

Slam, I respect what you're saying - hell, I even agree with you. But there are sooo many posters here with arrogance, I'd prefer to look past it if there is any reasonable chance of getting some positive contributions amongst all the horsedodo.

[steve p]

I am a subscriber to JR Miller's service and I find it amazing that you guys are attacking his record. With all the ******* services out there you guys pick on one of the few that are honest. Before you comment negitively on his record at least know what it is. Every day his picks are listed on his website just after the games start and a graph of all his picks this year is shown on the bottom of the page. Also his record is listed against lines that shoppers can certainly beat with a few phone calls. JR is a true pro and honest to a fault.

Did he have a bad streak last August? Yes. Does he have losing weeks? Yes. Anyone that tells you they are immune from same is a liar. The first clue that you better watch your wallet.

Next time you are in Vegas go to the Gamblers Book Store. Ask the clerk for the best book on sportswagering. My guess is that he will hand you JR's book. Then look at the wall of fame. You will see JR's picture. After that look to see how many of his critic's pictures are hanging on the same wall.

Six months from now JR will still be listing his picks on his website. His +55% expectation will still be beat. But I would be willing to bet that some of his critic's listed here will be searching for their next bankroll.

[irish]

Hear you Steve, if I ever took sports betting any more serious than I do ,I probably too would subscribe to his service ,he seems more honest than most and believe me I grew up with real pros, not arogant know it alls.The part that cracks me up is most of these self professed pros have other jobs ,I guess they work for recreational reasons.

[wintermute]

Can you read Steve? Who if anyone is attacking his record? He got lots of compliments on his book. He only got criticized as far as I can see for having a completely closed mind on what he believes to be the truth.

[SLAM DUNK]

Steve P, most here did not attack JR Millers record, because honestly we do not know? The only points I made on the issue is.

1) That would be a tremendous accomplishment
that can make a serious bettor an adequate to very good living, IF TRUE.

2) It would take a long time to prove or disprove. For instance if Joe Scamdicapper claims 60%, and gives out 100 games, there is
a 97.3% chance he will go 50-50 or better, based off his claimed %. So if Joe is 48-52 after 100 games, you know Joe is full of it.
(Binomial Distribution again). A 55% claim gives you a lot bigger cushion.(My old stats book doesn't have .55 in it-but I am sure someone ou there can provide a comparison). By the way I am not implying anything about JR Miller. How could I? I have never subscribed to his service, so I could not give you an opinion on it one way or the other. However it is this type of analysis that anybody interested in a tout or using any tout for the first time should use, to determine whether they are dealing with someone honest and qualified or not.

The negative comments were a link to a thread at another forum, and you should take up you issue there.

But since you are here to defend JR Miller, which is okay, and are a subscriber, may I suggest you tell us how long you have subscribed to his service and what your actual record with his plays has been since you began subscribing. That way those interested can formulate an opinion, based on
your actual performance using JR Miller's service. But since this include Baseball plays you should break it down in number of plays and Units won or lost.

[This message has been edited by SLAM DUNK (edited 07-20-2000).]

[buckeye]

I hope I'm not clouding the issue any more than it is. I do vary my bet size but I think I understand what Miller is saying about the 55%/60% thing. If you know, somehow, ahead of time which bets are going to ( as a group ) hit 60% over time and which will "only" hit 55%, then why would you BOTHER betting the 55%-ers? If your 60% bets (2*) really consistantly hit that much more than your 55% bets (1*) then it would seem logical to only play the 2* bets and adjust your wagers accordingly ( plus parlay them at that high a % ). Do the guys that think they can do this "predicting" actually document and keep track of these stats? I would guess that Miller is saying that if they documented them they might find that they don't ACTUALLY meet the 55/60 %es after all over time.

I am an admitted amateur and play only for amusement, but I will start keeping better records of actual play to see if he is right, in my case. Anyone know of any good bet-tracking s/w that will allow golf $line bets to be entered/tracked and will analyze plays within a parlay?

GL

[DoggieStyle]

I think if your use a system to get your plays, Like the Computor group did, You simply can not call all the play equal if the lines tell you different. They had a range and if the game was 2 points off the range they would bet it down to the range. If the game was 4 points they would get alot more money on these plays. There's no way all the plays are equal.

I would guess almost every profesional gambler uses this theory in one way or another.

I don't use systems, but I do make lines on all the sports. I will wait for a play I consider strong. On everything else I become a sick gambler and make small parlays FOR FUN. Anything more than $100 dollars and OFF goes the T.V. I can't watch!

I just want results. Even if it's a $100 dollar scalp I won't watch it. I'm hate to watch myself lose. I also think it affects your ability to handicap those teams the next time they play.

Well back to your post.........

[AussieVamp2]

what do you mean by tracked, buckeye?

have never seen golf specific software, but stuff that will do multiple lots of multiples for you, yes

[Hamhog]

JR,

How does a baseball player not vary their bet size? A player wants to bet two games:

1) Arizona - Randy Johnson -3.00 vs
Houston and Lima

2) Detroit - Nomo +2.50 vs
Boston - P Martinez.

Is a player expected to risk the same unit every time? On big underdogs that would not be prudent. If the common unit is the win amount, large favorites would put too much of your bankroll into play. In boxing, golf, etc where there are some true longshots is someone supposed to play 2% of the bankroll at 48-1 like Douglas vs Tyson. Not a chance.

Most the times playing a normal units makes the most sense, but every now and then a line looks off. Sort of like a hitter facing a Hershiser fastball. There are times when a big cut is necessary.