# of bets in a season

[rellekneleh]

Since JR Miller has come up in this forum recently I wanted to ask all the pros what they thought of one of his approaches to betting.

He says that it is better to have as many bets as you can if you have an edge on each one. This seems logical but others have said he pays too much in juice over the entire year.

What do you think?

[wintermute]

I'm not a pro but I am a very successful part-timer. I agree with JR on this one. I bet any game where I think I have an edge of more than about 2 percent.

What JR is saying is that it's better to bet 200 games where your edge is 5 percent rather than 50 games where your edge is 10 percent. In the former case betting $100 a pop you'll have a profit of $1000. In the latter case you'll make $500. Makes sense to me.

The amount of juice you pay is immaterial. Only the profit matters.

'mute

[Ronbets]

HelenKeller,

Agree with JRM and 'mute. I'd even play the board with any edge per game. If I have a positive expectation per game, what juice? I'm turning the BM into a player and he still runs the risk of having his doors blown in.

[rellekneleh]

I agree but it never hurts to hear other opinions. I thought maybe I was missing something important. I guess not. Thanks

[SLAM DUNK]

I feel it really depends on what stage you are in as a sports bettor and gambler. I think if you are new to sportsbetting or new to betting a specific sport, I think the wise approach is to focus in on figuring out what constitutes a high percentage play. Along the way you will have a large number of losers just in the learning process. Once you get more knowledgable about betting the sport, than you can work yourself backwards, and start throwing in some lower percentage plays to create volume. I am a firm believer that is far better too error on the conservative side than the agressive side.

Also the lower % plays are a lot more likely to cause long losing streaks, poor mental attitude, and possibly even some dangerous chasing. They also can sap the bankroll and offset the bankroll growth created by the higher percentage plays.

This is a complex question, that really should be determined on an individual basis. It really depends on your own strengths and weaknesses, and development, both emotionally and as a handicapper.

That was my whole point about JR Millers advice to begin with. You have to structure your betting strategies, based on what WORKS FOR YOU, not for JR Miller.

It is very easy to plug in numbers into a computer, and say I will hit x % over y number of plays, tell me how much I should win. But the computer doesn't have to go through all the emotional ups and downs of betting, it just has to see if the random numbers is greater than or less than x.

[Ronbets]

Slam Dunk,

Good point about emotional maturity relating to risk tolerance. However, I don't agree that "lower % plays are a lot more likely to cause long losing streaks". But the rest of your post is right on.