What is the rationale behind a book using a 20 cent line vs a 10 cent line ???

[freak]

Hello all,

I am sitting here looking at the different lines at the sportsbooks for baseball.

I can't come up with a reason why a book wants to use a 20 cent vs a 10 cent line in baseball.

Is it just because there is no spread as in football or basketball? I can't imagaine a book using a 20 cent line on all their games for those two sports, so why is baseball so different.

The other half of my problem is I don't understand why the big drop off in juice when a line hits -200 + why should the bettor taking the underdog be penalized?

Any thoughts, opinions, answers etc etc welcome...

Perhaps a history lesson is in order here..

[Chillin-the-Most]

Freak,
Basketball and football ARE dealt on a 20 cent line. A pickem game in either sport is -110 either side. At more sophisticated outs you will also see 3-20 or 3-15. The other side is still 20 cents to the house. Essentially every line has a point spread and money line combined. Football and Basketball, being by far the most popular sports, just drop money line from the qoute because it is assumed that the player knows he has to lay -110 regardless of if he takes or lays the spread. There are 2 reasons that the player has become accustomed to a dime line on sides in baseball(note that totals and runlines have always been dealt on a 20 cent line like all the other sports). 1 Baseball doesn't attract enough attention, so Books offer a "Special dicount" to their players if they will continue to play through baseball season(a practice that caught on and every major out adopted to meet competition). 2 There are so many games in baseball that in theory a book doesn't need as big of advantage to take the money.

[This message has been edited by Chillin-the-Most (edited 07-20-2000).]

[Chillin-the-Most]

To furher address your post,
Why would a book use a 20 cent line?
easy, because he can.
Why does the line widen as the favorite increases?
This has to do with the fact that a -200 favorite is more likely to win than a-130 fav. As you go even higher the dog becomes doggier.(ha) More often than not players are gonna lay the big prices. So when a book does get lucky enough to beat a big fav, he doesn't want to share as much of the money.

[bucky]

Probably because they got their butt beat with a 10 cent line.

[Shawn]

As to the drop off, it's all about percentages. Consider the two scenarios below:

Game one:
Twinkies -105
Pale Hose -105

Suppose each team has a 50% shot at winning this.

Suppose the bookie has a balanced book: $105 to win $100 on each side. Bookie will hold $5 out of the total handle of $210, just under 2.5 percent of money wagered.

Game two:
M's -325
Halos +275

Suppose the true odds should be -300/+300, that is, the M's win this game 75% of the time and the Halos 25%.

Suppose the bookie is again "balanced": He has one guy laying $325 to win $100 on the M's, another laying $100 to win $275 on the Halos.

Three times out of four the bookie makes no money here at all. He handles $425, but returns the $325 to the M's bettor along with the $100 bet on the Halos.

One time in four the bookie holds $50: He gives the Halos bettor the $100 stake back, plus $275 from the M's bettor, but the extra $50 stays in the bookie's pocket.

Since the bookie gets this good news of $50 once every four times, in the long run he'll profit $12.50/game (that's $50 divided by 4). Now a $12.50 profit on $430 handle is about 2.9 percent hold.

So the perceived "rip off" line of -325/+275 still holds less than 3 percent of handle.

And of course some shops do better than -325/+275 anyway.

Hope this helps.
Shawn

[deepsouth]

With regards to the line "increasing" for higher lines, is the "increase" perhaps just an artifact of American style odds? I don't think the book's average takeout per bet is much different in a +250/-300 game than it is on a +110/-130 game.

[thedevil]

That's not the reason..

In the other sports to attract 2 way action you move the spread, thus opening youself up to be sided or middled. In basball when you move the money you can only win or lose the game you can't get sided. The extra juice helps componsate for the games that fall.

THE DEVIL

[deepsouth]

As Shawn did a more thorough job of explaining than I did, the extra juice is perceived, but in reality the takeout is about the same for all games. No need to bring up siding, middling, moving, etc, etc. The answer to "why is the bettor penalized for +200 and +300 lines?" is that he isn't; the penalty is only perceived.

[alec]

Shawn and deepsouth are absolutely right.

Moreover, the expressions like "dime line" or "20 cent line" do not make any sense at all.

It seems to me that a lot of people here, even people working at various sports books don't understand it.

-105/-105 and -150/+140 are both "dime lines", however the takeout is different in each case.

I have a question. What is the reason behind using those American style odds? They are bad for almost all purposes. It is only convenient for scalping, but just in case of two outcomes. The only reason I can think of is a tradition, since when two people make a bet between themselves they would usually use this terminology.

[jakester]

Bottome line.....it's all about a bookmakers commission. Banks call it interest.

[sword1]

Perhaps its easiest to understand from a bettors point of view. When dealing with a football or basketball line were talking a 20 cent line 110 each way. To overcome the vig and turn a profit a bettor must win at a greater percentage then 52.38.

In baseball if your using a 20 cent line and only bet pickem games you would need the same 52.28 percent to break even. However if your dealing with a 10 cent line you would only need to win 51.12% to break even. So the reason a book uses a 20 cent line is similar to why a bettor searhes for a 10 cent line. Were both trying to make more money.

In reference to your second question. Lets take boxing for instance say Tyson is favorite by -1000 and another fighter is the dog at +700. This may seem like a huge spread but its really not. You see if you assume Tyson or any favorite is going to win 10 out of 11 times-the take for the book is ony 2.5 percent the same as in football - Assuming there is an equal action both ways. I can go through the mathmatics to show you but trust me I'm right. Hopes this helps.

[pay2play]

I think even BM's don't understand their own math. They should set lines as a percentage spread, fave to dog. In bases, a dime line would entail dividing the fave's price by 1.1. So the equilivent of a dime line on a -200 fave would be +1.82. They may approximately do this, but not consistently or perfectly.

Of course, and sadly, a lot of bettors don't understand this either. Some guys who, making the line -180, get happy when they find the BM has it -160, but pass on finding a dog of +110 they think should be +100, even though the latter is a bigger advantage. They've set themselves a 20 cent difference as their required margin to bet, not understanding that advantage changes as a percentage of the line, not an absolute difference between numbers.

[AussieVamp2]

Very good point p2p, the 'bet a 20c difference thing' is a trap for the arithmetically challenged in punting, whatever sort of moneyline you are looking at, but perhaps worse in the American format, as people are more used to 'value' I think in normal type prices as opposed to these and their negatives.

[AussieVamp2]

Example of what p2p is talking about, if someone even like freak did not understand that your 10/11 pointspread is a 20c line.

[Scott Landau]

Freek, It would amaze you the amount of squares who use just one local out, and aren't even aware of the existence of a 10 cent line. Every time I'm on hold waiting to play or get a line from a local, I overhear him dealing a 20 cent line to another player. That's not even nearly the worst of it. For example, let's say on a particular evening we have the following 10 cent prices at most stores: ATL-145,NYY-195,TOR-185. I'll be on hold and I'll hear the book say something like " The Yankees? The Yankees are 12. Ok, Yanks minus 12 for a nickel." It's 'Jackup City'! He already knows what the dope is going to bet! A minute later his readback will be something like this: "Ok, you got ATL-8 and 1/2 for 3, Yanks-12 for 5, and TOR-11 for 5." Then he hangs up, and says "whaddya need Scotty"? I respond "bet you pay that guy every week", and we both laugh!