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The 10 cent - 20 cent debate

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  • The 10 cent - 20 cent debate

    Simple answer is profit.

    Simply put the theoretical hold % that a bookmaker can expect from a 20 cent line is double than when using a 10 cent line.

    The book will then lose some business, but in my estimations not over half so he still (theoretically) makes the same profit of half the business, which also means less running costs to the book.

    If you look at it from the books view, it is a good business decision.

    Also, is it not the actual price of team A that makes you play, e.g. a 20 cent book has a fav 5 cents better than your 10 cent book, you play with your book, and, get 5 cents the worst of it. Player B with multiple outs plays his game with the twenty cent book, and gets 5 cents better than you.

    All i have seen is bitching about books changing to a twenty cent line, who cares if they use that line, if it is a better line play it.

    I bet people who have taken their money out of the 20 cent book have seen games where they could have got a better price with their former book.

    Is that not how a player works, he looks for the best price!!!!!

    Also, addressing the point of why the straddle between fav and dog gets bigger, the simple answer is the books THP% goes down.

    e.g.
    -1.05
    -1.05
    THP% = 2.38

    -1.90
    +1.80
    THP% = 1.22

    So they move to a 20 cent straddle

    e.g.
    -2.00
    +1.80
    THP% = 2.33

    Still lower than when the line is a pickem.

    That is why the straddle increases, so that the bookmaker can maintain the same edge, thus maximising his profits. From the books view this is good. From un-educated bettors view, they are getting ripped off, UNTRUE.

    With respect to people moving their money from a 20 cent book, can i ask what you will do in Football season, when its a level playing field(20 cents), in my view an out is an out in Football, when you are shopping or are a serious gambler as people in here seem to be, you can be sure you will miss a few bargains all because you got the hump in baseball and cant realise that football is a separate entity.

    A bit long but i like to get my point accross concisely, any questions or opinions appreciated.

    Dingle

    Would have added to the original topic but some gaarbaage about done with errors and a blank screen, i may know percentages but explorer faults get me every time!!!!!



    [This message has been edited by Dingle (edited 07-22-2000).]

  • #2
    Anyone, Bueller, Bueller, Bueller

    Comment


    • #3
      Is my view to perfect to comment on, or is this the junior member syndrome coming into play.

      I will give you a background of me, just to calm any junior member nerves.

      I work for a High Street Shop (Independent bookmaker) in the U.K., and have been reading this site for a while now. It was all for my research of American Sports Bookmaking, an industry which looks to be on a boom at the moment, and I am looking to enter the business, and the reason I posted my "opinions" is because I want to know if I'm on the right track. So any comments would be appreciated.

      Has anyone found ferris yet!!!!!!

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      • #4
        Dingle, welcome to the forum. We could use some UK BM input. Just be prepared for the brutality and viciousness with which we sometimes deal with each other, as exemplified by:

        "Simple answer is profit."
        DUH! (just joking)

        And yes you're right that the spread should increase as the price rises to keep the hold the same. Most of us don't begrudge a book that.

        You're wrong, however, when you say that we can still get the best price for our side at a 20 cent book. That almost never happens. I have 8 outs, two of which are 20 cents. I've quit looking at their prices because in months of shopping I NEVER found them the best of my dime outs. Now if you want to say they like losing the sharper bettors, fine. That's also is a UK view. But I think no matter what a person does they should do it in a manner to earn respect, and such books, maybe they earn money, but they don't earn the right to gambler's pride; they certainly shouldn't hold their head high in the local poker game.

        You UK mugs with your evil soccer spreads, if you guys had to post even a 20cent line, much less a dime line, what would you do, go into your closet, get a new dress on, and open up dance parlor? I'm just asking because I don't understand why UK books (Euro's, too) always seem to be wearing a skirt and heels when they post soccer odds. I'm new to soccer betting (doing well, thanks for asking, and enjoying myself). But when I see a not un-common line at Sportingbet like 3/4 and 3/4 (1/2 goals), I want to puke. Have you guys just been spoiled so long by lack of competition that you've lost your balls? Or are you just square-hustling lowlifes afraid to gamble?

        Not that there's anything wrong with that.

        Yes I've busted on you a bit here, but it's generic, not personal. The idea that a BM should be a gambling man and not a grocery clerk seems to be peculiarly American and Aussie and I'm wondering why. Maybe it's just true that all the real gamblers took their chances and emigrated from your side of the pond many many years ago, and that difference still shows in their descendant cultures.

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        • #5
          Hello across the pond! You are looking for imput? I'll give you a small play.

          I'm a serious player and wouldn't lose any sleep if a bookmaker loses serious money.
          >>>>>>Quote>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
          "Player B with multiple outs plays his game with the 20cent book and gets 5cents better than you."
          >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
          I'd rather forgo those extremely rare times and exercise my right to boycott his shop. By not playing this year, maybe next year he gets the message that serious players won't tolerate the gouge.
          <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

          Back in the early 70's, bookmakers tried to pull the same shenanghans with basketball. They tried to institute 40cent lines. The free market quashed that.

          When football arrives what will I do? Simply transfer my funds back. Ya know free market--free choice.

          The line gap principle? While you are correct, it has been discussed previously here and a lot of these sharp guys don't watch reruns.

          Now tell me, what would you do to entice me to post up with your shop?

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          • #6
            P2P, I wanted to say all that but I was just too shy.

            I, too, have quit even bothering to look at the baseball lines (sides) at 20 cent books because you won't find the best number there 999 times out of 1000. It's just not worth the trouble.

            And British bookmakers are truly spoiled. The typical vig there leaves no player a chance, and makes the BM's job so much easier.

            Comment


            • #7
              Market forces will eventually bring UK/Euro bookies into a more competitive stance.

              With the advent of the Internet the British punter no longer has to play high-vig trebles. Every major British out is or will be offshore in the near future, where they themselves can offer singles. (Peculiar Brittism, isn't it: Gibraltar, attached to Spain and Europe, is "offshore"; London is not....) Technology like the Switch card lets punters shop for value in British outs.

              Soccer has caught on as a betting phenomenon in Asia, and Asian bookies offer very low juice to anyone willing to grasp the idea of quarter-balls. British/Euro bookies will have to compete or risk being frozen out here.

              And let's not forget Australia and the Caribbean offering low-vig options by Internet or Freephone. All in all the careful punter need no longer be exploited in soccer if he does his homework.

              P-2-P, Sportshobby, don't cry for English bookies. There will be some punters who will play into treble shops, but in the end that will not be a growth segment of the market. If these people want to prosper, they'll change with the times.

              I know a guy in Madrid who used to post US-Hockey style lines, you know:
              Glorious Real Madrid -1.5, even
              Evil Barcelona +1, even
              He used to write the equivalent of about 100 dimes US a week. Now he's losing customers. He's 64 and couldn't care less because he's made his fortune. Not every bookie is already independently wealthy though...others are competing.

              Check out places like VC and Coral (Eurobet). The transformation has begun already.

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              • #8
                Shawn,

                Haven't looked recently - what is VC up to?

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                • #9
                  Concur 20 cent baseball lines are not in my reptoire of looking at.

                  My point of the thread which I guess I totally screwed up, is why would a player continue to play a 20 cent line with no spread involved....

                  As for them soccer spreads, try rugby down under !!!!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Players/Punters want 10 cent lines because line shopping becomes easier and more productive. The wider the gap ( 20, 30+ cents ) in any sport the tougher it is to get a "better" price, not impossible but MUCH TOUGHER and less productive to line shop. The 20 cent outs have a nickel "insurance" each way when steam hits and they are less likely to get burned, I think. But we players don't give a chit about poor old Mr booky, so we want what benefits us most, lower VIG!

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                    • #11
                      Freak,

                      Not sure what you are talking about rugby-wise, competition has seen the lines go to 1.90 on NRL games at the holdout Centrebet now, same with the AFL

                      The TABs are still 1.85 for tax reasons....

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                      • #12
                        Shawn, I agree that market forces will work to our benefit, especially the Asian money pressure. If I don't get Kyl-billed (or it's future clones) I look forward to many years of competitive soccer betting, maybe to the point where, when we pull up this forum and click on a thread called "scalping football", started by Reno, it's got nothing to do with the NFL or NCAA.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          AV2: Nothing new. The bit with the -110 Asian Lines and totals remains though.

                          P-2-P: Interresting.

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                          • #14
                            Shawn,

                            "I know a guy in Madrid who used to post US-Hockey style lines, you know: Glorious Real Madrid -1.5, even Evil Barcelona +1, even"

                            Can you please tell a little bit more about that?
                            Almost all sports books in the former Soviet Union started with that kind of soccer lines, which is a huge rip off, of course. Some, actually most of them, like Fonbet, still use it.
                            I always thought that nobody else did it in soccer. Now I see that I was wrong.
                            Thank you in advance.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Alec...

                              Not much more to say. This guy wanted to separate himself from the 1-X-2 crowd so he started booking this way along with the 1-X-2 stuff. By 1991-92 (first year of Barcelona "dream team"...one European Cup, some dream team...even Red Star won [i]one[\i]) he pretty much dropped the 1-X-2 because he was writing a pile with the split lines and the hold was over 10%.

                              I was moving money into these for other people and in return for the action he was letting me make the plays at 2.05 on public teams and 2.10 on the rest, which let me skim off a few % of the lay amount and still pay the players at evens if they won. I guess I should have complained the lines were a ripoff, but anyway...

                              Once I started Grad School ('94) I didn't have time to do as much of it. This guy's high watermark for volume was Euro '96. Since then he's slowed down and has no desire to try to book thin lines. It's almost at the point now where it's a hobby for him.

                              So no, not just in Russia

                              Shawn

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