Run Line vs Moneyline- What gives??

[juggler]

Does anyone have a sense for how the money line and run line are calculated? Once a moneyline is posted is their a formula to get to the runline?

Why for example, could someone just put up tonight the Mets +134 and the Braves +1.5 +130 and make at least 30%. The risk is of course if the braves win by a single run. But w/some of the lines when Pedro or Johnson or Wells are pitching makes me believe the runline might be the better bet

Or is the runline just in general a bad bet. Any help would be appreciated

[Ronbets]

I gave out the formula about a month ago. Check archives.

[Mark Pereira]

Juggler... they're directly proportional - the object being to provide the bettor with a option whereby he doesn't have to lay so much (with the added risk of the 1.5 runs). A -200 fav would be (roughly) -1.5 flat, and a -110 or -105 would be about -1.5 +170 Ronbets sums it up perfectly

Cheers

Mark

[This message has been edited by Mark Pereira (edited 07-23-2000).]

[bucky]

If you play dogs the run line is definitely worth a look. In comparison to the money line sometimes there is better value on the run line.

[Mark Pereira]

For example... White Sox/Red Sox game promoted a very high level of runline action on the Red Sox (the Red Sox only won by 1 !!!) The high price on the moneyline made the runline price much more attractive.

[This message has been edited by Mark Pereira (edited 07-23-2000).]

[This message has been edited by Mark Pereira (edited 07-23-2000).]

[PerpetualCzech]

I checked archives and couldn't find the formula that was posted so sorry if this waqs already dealt with, but:

It seems to me the run line has to be somehow dependent on the O/U number for the game, doesn't it? If there are 2 games rated at a pick 'em, one of them in Colorado and the other with a Greg Maddux vs. Randy Johnson matchup, I think the favourite on the run line should have much shorter odds in Colorado since that run you're giving up means far less than in the other game.

Anyone out there betting Colorado at home on the money line regularly? If so, how are you doing?

[Ronbets]

P/Czech,

Good deduction. If the scoring of runs are at a premium, the price to buy a run and a half will be more expensive and vice versa.

[bucky]

You have to go back 60 days or 13 pages to find the Ronbets post on this subject. Wintemute has an interesting comment there as well. Wintemute if you are out there do you keep a database of odds/lines and results? Ronbets comments in the archives that there is about a 35 cent bias for the home time on the run line as opposed to being a favorite on the road.

[noholdsbarred]

P/Czech that is definitely the way to look at the runlines. The total is the whole key. Obviously, the price is set via the moneyline. But as far as betting value the +1.5 is where a bettor should look, especially on the lower totals. But it isn't like five years ago, the BM has caught up and really makes the bettor pay on those games to get the +1.5.

The square will lay the run and a half to get around the high money line. As was already stated in earlier posts the Red Sox game is a perfect example of that, especially the final score!

[bucky]

Jug:
I agree on the Mets + 135 tonight but Atlanta was(-)1 1/2 and +130 but I think that is what you meant. Here is a chart that I use but don't expect it to be right on (accuracy 10% + or -). We could do some research but I will bet when it is off it has to do with the over/under line.

Home teams

-200 = -1.5 -105
-190 = -1.5 100
-180 = -1.5 +105
-170 = -1.5 +110
-160 = -1.5 +120
-150 = -1.5 +130
-140 = -1.5 +140
-130 = -1.5 +150
-120 = -1.5 +160
-110 = -1.5 +170

Away teams

-200 = -1.5=-130
-190 = -1.5=-125
-180 = -1.5=-120
-170 = -1.5=-115
-160 = -1.5=-110
-150 = -1.5= 100
-140 = -1.5=+110
-130 = -1.5=+120
-120 = -1.5=+130
-110 = -1.5=+135

Add or subtract 20 cents for the dog runline.


[This message has been edited by bucky (edited 07-24-2000).]

[OLD MAN]

I HAVE THECONVERSION CHART USED BY LVSC
IN FRONT OF ME. THE CHART ABOVE IS FAIRLY
ACCURATE. WHEN THEHOME TEAM IS FAV, THEY MOVE THE LINE 90 CENTS-WHEN THE ROAD TEAM IS FAV,
THEY MOVE 50 CENTS-PROBABLY STILL TAKE CERTAIN CONDITIONS INTO CONSIDERATION......

[wintermute]

bucky

Don't have much data on run lines but what I have indicates that +1.5 runs has value quite often but rarely -1.5.

'mute

[OLD MAN]

The reason +1.5 has value is because they
went back 60 years and found out that a high percentage of games were decided by 1 run.

[bucky]

Any more liklihood of home teams + 1.5 being a good value? It would be fun to look at some statistical analysis of say all the +1.5 games and their results and then to break it down into niches (home-away) and even farther -110's, -120's etc. I guess that would take a monster database.

The next time in Vegas I have to try to get to that bookstore with those kind of books.

[Railbird]

If you attend ball games,or are able to converse with a very sharp advance scout,you could bounce ideas off of each other,and maybe spot a mechanical deficeny on say 3or4 pitchers,and could lay -1.5 and then it could be a sharp bet and not necessarily be such a square idea.

For example sunday night you could tell Dreifort was on his way to a shutout after 2 innings.I will have little hesitation to lay 1.5 with Darren his next out.

I'm not so sure that what happend in 1940 or 1953 is more important than what happend 5 days a go.