The Future of Soccer Betting!

[AYCE]

Since there are so many soccer guys in here lately and more books are having soccer as one of their regular offer options. I think this time we will have more and better feedbacks.

So what do you want me to start with?

Let's talk about the lines, its almost a consensus that we will be seeing more and more 2-way lines in the very near future (Asian or not), we will also see the vig decreasing, the hold will be smaller even in the 3-ways.

Some books mentioned last season that offering Asian lines is very complicated and they need to modify their software because of that, well we know its all bulls!

Its just about who wants to the 1st and who don't want to be the last, we will see in this coming season.

How about the offers?

Personally I don't think soccer is a good sport to create sucker bets, alec should agree with me on this. So other than exact score and half/full time, I see books out there will have difficulties to generate any kind of new offers.

Well, of course we have the totals.

Welcome to the reality, PC.

To be honest with you, setting the O/U lines for soccer games is a very difficult job for a BM (or a "consultant").

Setting the O/U lines for EVERY soccer games is the most difficult job in the world for a BM.

Just ask Spiro about it.

As a bettor, of course I know what exactly he felt, especially when I was unloading on Liverpool vs Hull City with over 2.5 at -120...

But thats was pretty long ago, and that is now and the future.

PC, watch your mouth, I dare you will have O/U lines for every single soccer games that Olympic will be offered. 40 cents lines or not.

BTW, PC, it seems to me that you will need to do a little more research. Like I said before, for the big 4 leagues, there are many books out there will have 20 to 30 cents lines on the totals, mega$ports for example.

Even 5 dimes (which solely copying lines from the others) and still willing to offer 25 to 30 cents total lines, although very "inconsistent" though.

So its a pretty lame excuse if Olympic can't offer something better than 40 cents in the big 4.

Anyway, it will be very interesting to see how this total thing will be "played" in the next season, and it will be more interesting to see if there will be any traditional powers (other than VC) like WH or Labrokes offer them publicly and on a regular basis.

We shall see, although I highly doubt it.

Next we come to the development of the books and markets.

Ever heard about Macauslot? What's the future of a "more aggressive legalized soccer betting" in Singapore? How about the future of betting tax in UK? Ever concerned about the "gambling groups" and developments of socce betting in HK? What role will be Jphan playing in the next couple years?

Still we will have a lot of questions, let us hear some feedbacks and I will have more on those issues later.

[AussieVamp2]

Ray, Megasports did not have totals other than for the Premier League for very long apart from the odd other game

Canbet either for that matter

[PerpetualCzech]

AYCE,

I am more than happy to take you up on your challenge as I don't think setting an O/U line for a soccer game is very hard at all. e.g. for your Liverpool/Hull matchup, off the top of my head I believe each one of those teams was in the bottom 3 of their respective leagues in Average Goals Per Game (for plus against) so under was the play for that one, especially if Liverpool was on the road. I just talked to Spiro and Mike tonight about Asian lines and there may be software issues but I for one am more than happy to go forward with this. Translating the 3-way lines to their Asian equivalents will be interesting ...

[AussieVamp2]

another thing on the totals Ray - a 40cent line is what, a 109% market or thereabouts, better than anything soccerwise except Asian stuff, or what Canbet currently has?

[Shawn]

I love these sorts of philosophical discussions.

Soccer totals are a vicious game. Baseball totals are always "both listed pitchers" and nobody quibbles with that. It's tough to put up all sorts of soccer totals before the day of the match. How many times do you read in a preview report "This club has a Champions' League match on Tuesday, so a few of the regulars might be rested here." Can you just see putting a total on "Well, Kevin Brown and Randy Johnson might go tomorrow, but they might not because they'd rather play in the TV game on ESPN in two days' time."
--
Variety of bets: I'm not sure it's totals that punters want, but if so, eventually they'll get them. Market forces rule.
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Proliferation of Asian Lines: To offer Asian lines a book needs four things: 1) People to play, 2) Software to deal, 3) Clerks to deal, and 4) market access.

2) and 3) are one-time and continuous investments respectively in programming dollars and employee training. Neither is as easy as it looks but it's doable with time and money.

4) Because the wagers are so large and the vig is so thin stores need to know what other stores are offering so they're not offering -3/4, 1.925 when everyone else is offering -1, evens. At present there is no Don Best Premium Feed for the Asian Lines. It requires people on the phone calling and checking.

Lastly, 1) getting people to play requires marketing by the store, but also requires forces beyond the stores' control to line up. The betting public needs to "tune in and turn on" to Asian lines, not "drop out" when they see a -1/4 or a -1-3/4. Second, in the key Asian line markets (surprise! Asia!) soccer leagues need to do TV deals to get the games in the public eye. French League football is, in its top flight, not far different in quality from the English Premier or Serie A. That said, it'll be a lot easier to attract clients to an Asian Line on a Monday game between Bradford and Ipswich than a weekend clash between AS Monaco and PSG.

So many bookies just hang out bloated coupon prices, leave them fixed during the weekend, and count their hold Monday morning, avoiding all of the above.
--
On overall pricing: As I wrote in Dingle's thread, market competition will bring vig levels down, eliminate trebles-only, and gicve the public what it wants.

Everybody knows World Cup 2002 is going to be humungous.

[alec]

Let me say what I want to see in soccer.

1) As everybody here I want to see Asian lines being as common as three way lines. Or "almost Asian" -0.5/+0.5 -1.5/+1.5 ... lines with vig as low as possible.

I don't think that Asian lines are hard to explain to the customers and I don't think that the customers may be so stupid to not understand the advantages of this concept.
I also think that if software prevent you from introducing new options you should change the software. I believe that software is a ridiculous reason for not offering some options.

2) I want to see promotion bets available for every situation where there is a question of promotion. I think this is the most interesting kind of bets during any big tournament.

Right now I want to place a bet on Kiev to qualify to the Champions League main draw (OK maybe I don't, just for example). Where can I do it? And if nowhere, why?
I want to be able to place a promotion bet after 1st leg in two legs series. I want to be able to place a bet on promotion (Yes/No) of every team in the Champions League main draw to the quarters after each round etc.

[alec]

Shawn,

I don't understand why it is so much harder to make a line for a total, than for the match outcome.

In your example, doesn't the presence of some key players on the field affect the outcome of the match as well as the total?

[AYCE]

OK, that Liverpool vs Hull City game was 2 season ago, a FA Cup early round match.

Liverpool at home vs Hull City, game line was Liverpool -2000.

O/U 2.5 goals -120 for both sides.

Final score : Liverpool 7 Hull City 1, half time Liverpool 5-0.

As I said, that was then, it is now.

Welcome to the game, PC.

Let me give you some more "facts" about soccer totals in Olympic,

a) they are the only book that you will see o/u 2 goals lines.

b) they are the only book that will have o/u 3.5 goals lines other than that USA vs China women soccer game, which we have a gift from Roxy.

c) they are the only book that will have o/u for MLS.

d) soccer total is still a "fear" to Olympic. PC, just ask Mike or Spiro, how many o/u 3 lines for the last 6 months as compared with about 6 months ago? 3 is a magic number, isn't it, but its not the way to go to book your soccer totals in the long run.

e) but give them credit, they do learn quicker nowadays. Please tell me Olympic, why would you pull your lines for the Intertoto Cup ONLY after the 1st leg of the 1st round?

[ShiftySheik]

Could someone explain "Asian line"? I thought it was just like a Canadian hockey line...now I'm not sure after reading this thread.

[Shawn]

Alec,

Sometimes, sure, you're right. But one "scary" situation for books would be a situation where a powerhouse team is hosting a reasonably weak team. Take the best striker and midfielder out of the powerhouse side and they still probably win (OK the Asian Line may now be suspect but the 3-way has more vig so...) but the total might go from 2'o55 to 2'flat lickety split. Sometimes the lineup is not known until the teamsheets are submitted...one reason the Asian bookies often cut matters off an hour before the match.

Sheik,

Sort of like Canadian pucks but line moves in quarter-goal increments instead of half-goal increments. The pick, -.5, -1, -1.5, etc bets work exactly like Canadian hockey. The inbetween quarters like -.25, -.75 see half your stake placed on each of the "usual" numbers on either side.
E.G.:
If you take a team at -3/4 goals, half your bet is at -1/2 and half is at -1.
If you take a team +1/4 goals half your bet is at pick'em (Asian line calls it "DNB" for "Draw: No Bet") and half your bet is at +1/2.

[AussieVamp2]

It is, except it is designed to keep the odds in the 1.80 to 2.00 range either side

so you also have 'quarter' handicaps

-0.25, -0.75 etc.

which means if it lands exactly on the number closes, i.e. 0 for -0.25, 1 for -0.75 the relevant side either only wins half their bet, or loses half their bet

this keeps the odds away from the -0.5 1.45 type situations you get in hockey

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm more than familiar with Olympics O/U numbers from the past year and have devoted considerable time to handicapping them. Totals as high as 3.5 are certainly warranted for the highest scoring leagues (Norway and Belgium) but I've rarely seen a game that I wouldn't bet Over 2 -120 at the blink of an eye. I remember one slate of Italy Serie B games close to the end of the year (when scoring goes up) that Spiro had 2 -120 each way across the board and I think the Over hit something like 6-0-1.

MLS is averaging a little over 3 goals a game and I've been tempted to play some Over plays there in games involving Chicago and Washington but never took the plunge. Too bad, I think I missed out on some profits there.

This brings up some interesting questions about the nature of the game. If the highest scoring leagues in Europe are averaging 3.5 goals a game and the lowest ones are at 2.2 (e.g. France 2nd Division), then what are some of the factors that go into determining this stat in a league? Reffing? Coaching style? Rule differences? I mean, that's really a huge difference if you express it in %ages.

For another example take a look at the EURO tourney in 1992 where games averaged a mere 1.75 per game and EURO 2000 where there was a full goal increase per game in scoring. That's just huge. (Anyone remember what year it was that FIFA moved to 3 points for a win?)

[AussieVamp2]

Hmm, maybe we definitely don't want you doing soccer totals from our point of view

Or maybe we do, as getting them right might get some others doing it.

Good question though - is France 2 as bent as Italy 2?

[AussieVamp2]

hard to tell at just a guess though PC seeing the soccer stats industry is pretty much non-existent in most places

stats being 'scores' to most

[PerpetualCzech]

Bent? What the heck does that mean? :-)

If it means "low scoring" then Italy 2 was slightly higher than Franch 2 but not by much .... it still qualified as one of the lowest scoring leagues in Europe last year.