Olympic World Sports

[Shawn]

Boris...

Fair enough.

I too am mostly a "dog" bettor--esp. in American sports because IMO that's where the value is. I think if I'd grown up in England, though, I'd be the opposite because of the "minimum trebles" rule--if I found a team I liked at 5.50, I'd want to increase my odds of cashing something by looking for a couple of bankers at very short prices.

In soccer I find myself betting 1/2-ball or 1/4-ball even opposed to single matches 3-way just because the takeout is so much less. 1/2-ball, 1/4-ball, i don't care which but I'm with you, 1/4 is quite messy.

[AussieVamp2]

and another thing, if everybody had handicap lines, that would also be a different story, but they don't...

if they are 105/106% (1.90) of course that will be a different situation than something like Sportingbet's

if they are 112% handicap markets you, as I pointed out, are taking the draw bite hard out of your profits

home teams I have found prices I use come out to funnily enough around 1.90, shopping around, away of course varies a lot... if markets were cut to 106% from the 111%+ then of course things will be nicer

[AussieVamp2]

Yeah, Shawn, well some of the European types I guess get blinded by the 'wow, the price is 4.40, that is good'

or 2.90 for a draw, that is good value...

when they are often not close

[AussieVamp2]

Ice Hockey an interesting one too Shawn, the smarter ones happy to back handicap lines - PC, handicap lines for Euro Hockey very good things

But have seen people suggesting back a hockey three way at Centrebet, with same odds as the handicap line, and of course you lose the 3-way bet on an OT win then.

A bit silly, for the NHL.

[ShiftySheik]

I don't have the numbers, but a line such as -0.5 -130/+0.5 +100 would have a lower hold % for the book than the 3 way lines that Olympic is now using. That's why I said it is better for the player. Maybe Perpetual Czech could give us the theoretical hold for each type of line.

[alec]

ShiftySheik,

Theoretical hold does not depend on the line type. It depends on odds.

It is just that bookies use lower odds level for three way lines than they do for Asian lines. Which I have never really understood.

In my opinion the hold should be the same or rather greater in case of Asian lines, because there are very few if any reliable sources for this line type.

[ShiftySheik]

alec, I agree...if the books tightened up the lines on the 3 way it could be a better bet. A 30 cent handicap line would be better than the current 3 way lines at Olympic, that's the point I was trying to make.

[PerpetualCzech]

IMO, from the players point of view the ONLY thing that should matter is the %age hold of the bookmaker, not the type of bet that is offered. (This is true if the only concern is maximizing long term profits) At Olympic right now we aim for the 11-12% range for the bigger leagues and around 13% for the smaller leagues but that is only because the current market will tolerate these levels. If I am successful in my studies of the game, I hope to reduce that and attract customers by doing so.

Having said that, however, I am beginning to realize why the hold in soccer is so much higher than in say the NFL. There is just SO MUCH information out there for a good bookmaker to keep on top of that he is naturally scared of an expert in any one of the leagues swooping in to hammer him. Imagine having 50 NFL leagues out there instead of just one and having to keep up with the details of every team in each league and whether the middle linebacker's ankle is strong enough for him to start this weekc. There are many professional players out there who are good enough to even beat the NFL at a 4.7% hold ... imagine what they could do with a similar setup in their (huge) choice of soccer leagues.

[AussieVamp2]

Yep, there's a fair bit, doubt you can do it yourself to the obsessive level of the NFL

Argentinian League
Austrian Bundesliga
Austrian First Division
Belgian League
Brazilian Copa Joao Havelange
Champions League
Copa Libertadores
Copa Merconorte
Copa Mercosur
Croatian League
Czech League
Danish First Division
Danish Second Division
Danish Superliga
Danish Third Division
Dutch Eredivisie
Ecuadorian League
English First Division
English Football Conference
English Premier League
English Second Division
English Third Division
Finnish First Division
Finnish Veikkausliga
French Le Championnat
French Second Division
German Bundesliga
German Bundesliga 2
German Regionalliga
Greek League
Hungarian League
Icelandic Landssimadeild
Intertoto Cup
Israel Premier League
Israeli Leunit League
Japanese J-League
Korean K-League
Major League Soccer
Mexican League
National Soccer League
Norwegian Eliteserien
Norwegian First Division
Norwegian Second Division
Norwegian Third Division
Norwegian Toppserien
Paraguayan League
Peruvian League
Polish 1. Liga
Portugese League
Russian Premier League
Scottish First Division
Scottish Premier League
Scottish Second Division
Scottish Third Division
Serie A
Serie B
Singapore S-League
Slovakian League
Slovenian League
Spanish Primera Liga
Spanish Segunda Division
Swedish Allsvenskan
Swedish Second Division
Swedish Superettan
Swiss National League
Swiss National League B
Turkish 1. Liga
UEFA Cup
Uruguayan League

This is not counting things like the Dutch 1st division and Finnish 2nd division or anything like that that may be bettable on locally, or International Soccer, or a few other South American Cups, or all the FA Cup and League Cup type competitions, etc., etc.

But as pointed out, the market % is the thing.

[AussieVamp2]

and, of course, Intertops threat to add the Ukrainian League

It is a great start by Olympic to have all these available if they do and continue to do so, as then you can bet on them with an acknowledge top bookmaker, rather than slightly more interesting situations like Worldbet, or Fonbet, etc. so I will look forward to this with interest.

[AussieVamp2]

only thing is, with Olympic at the moment, and maybe you are a little busy

but it seems that some stuff is forgotten in this new expanded list, i.e. Croatia/Hungary not listed, has been recently, but not up now?

I like to know who offers what consistently, as you then know where to check.

[AussieVamp2]

a pain, I know - I missed the fact that there was a Croatian league game on last night myself...

[boris]

Alec,
Bookies traditionally work by the theory that the more outcomes there are, the more % goes into the market. So if you have head-to-head markets with about 3.5% each (107%), then soccer on the 1x2 line becomes 110-111%.
Thus on the exact score for a NBA finals series (best of 7), there's around 125% there.

With Canbet betting 106% on most leagues, and WSEX around 110%, it should gradually start sliding down.......

[AussieVamp2]

Interestingly, Canbet seems to no longer have the half goal handicap on every league, just 1 or 2

[PerpetualCzech]

AV, no question that we can improve lots on our consistency, not only in what leagues we offer but in when we post odds.

Time! ... I need more time! ....