Value of runs in Baseball

[phaedrus]

I was wondering if some of the "sharps" that Bworld claims to have could help me with this quandary

I know relatively what the value of a run is at the start of a game. But how (generally) does this deviate as the game is being played.

Theoretically if the value of a run is X at the start of a game, it would incrase by 1/18 or 1/9 after each inning.

The reason I am asking this is because I have been doing the in game thing over at wagerstreet and am pretty sure that the linesmaker is on top of things but I still think that there is some value in some of the plays.

I have had some success so far, but then have given most of it back betting on the live in game football. (which is far less statistics oriented and more "momentum" oriented)

What are some of your guys thoughts on the matter.

Lets take todays game:
Chicago Sox @
Cleveland Indians

closing line was -250 at Cris, and the runline was -1.5,-125 at olympic.

Assuming a 0-0 score what should the line be through each inning of play?

[Ronbets]

phaedrus,

First of all, you go right to the top and ask Phd. questions. There are plenty of BMs that would love to know these answers. There might be some pros that might want to give away trade secrets. But hell, that's equivilant to Valentino 'ratting out'' fellow magicians. Ok, to the right path of direction.

Quote,"Assuming a 0-0 score, what should the line be through each inning of play"?-- That's the lazy mans way to bankruptcy court! Key: IN PROGRESS OBSERVATION. This is an imperfect science. Would you follow a form chart on half times not knowing Manning broke his leg on the last play of the half?(extreme). Try Pedro pitch count high or low(normal).

Get the ideas? Get the cash.

[phaedrus]

okay Ronbets, you are right its probably info that most don't want to share. Heck I am not even sure if I want to share the info that i had.

As for your astute observation regarding "it not being an exact science"

I understand that, nowhere did I imply that I thought it was an exact science. What I was looking for was some semblance of "value" so that I could use as a measuring stick. I would then have a starting point - ya dig?

I asked "assuming a 0-0 score" what SHOULD the line be (not what would the line be) I guess that I should have added the phrase "all things being equal to the start of the game". Then it would have been somewhat more clear as to what I am getting at.

I am talking fantasy land , whereby nothing in terms of where the line was originally at at the start of the game, has changed to where its at right now in progress.

IMO the linesmaker at wagerstreet is obviously using a "chart" to determine his lines, and then fine tune them based on the situation of the game. I say this b/c the very nature of their format of In Game Betting entails fast decisions. And there is no way that he could do it "on feel" alone.

regards

[Ronbets]

phaedrus,

Your last paragraph says it best. Your last sentence shouldn't be underestimated.

[reno]

From now on, I'm going to be real careful about what I say regarding important sportsbetting statistics. The guys who make the line read this forum, and anything said here only serves to educate them. I'm going to be doing my own handicapping in baseball next season, and all I have to say regarding the value of a run is that it behooves every baseball bettor to know what it is in every situation.

[sportshobby]

Reno, I completely agree. But I have to say that it is pretty funny talking about the players not educatiing the people that make the line.

[phaedrus]

Reno, are you playing the in progress stuff at the Dunes and Wagerstreet right now?

I like the Wagerstreet stuff better although both have their advantages.

Dunes sux b/c you are forced to play before you get the line. Also you have to phone it in, although they will usually quote you a line on most games. Sometimes they don't count that inning on your bet. They definitely have the "nuts" in that scenario, I mean come-on I call you and you give me a line but I am forced to bet?

That being said I have played their in progress quite a bit despite the conditions.

At wagerstreet you can can see the lines before you bet, and you can bet it over the net. But they only put up lines at their discretion. In other words the game you like may or may not have an In Progress line.

Also the lines are only up for a short period of time (usually the inning interval or when a pitching change occurs for baseball).

What do you guys prefer?

[reno]

Phaedrus, I'm not even playing right now. I was betting my partner's computer-system baseball plays early this season, but we had a parting of the ways. Consequently, all I've been doing most of this season is scalping. Next year, I'm going to bet my own baseball plays. Regarding in-progress stuff, there is no way I will have time to do that on top of handicapping and scalping. Just adding the handicapping to the scalping will be a nightmare in itself. I already average well over 80 hours a week just scalping.