Limits on Election??

[Rich]

remember one thing, while i think the outcome of the race is too close to call, a couple of things favor Gore. One the Rep base has been phsyched up for this election for a long time now finally Dems and liberals are getting into it. Atleast half of
Nader's vote might go to Gore. Also Democrats always have to work harder to get out their voters, which means Gore is putting The "street money" into battlegroun states. It is widely conceded even byRepublicans that a huge turnout means a Gore win, every registered voter poll shows that but likely voter national polls show the race about even. What that means is Bush will win by massive margins in his base states where no money is being spent on turnout while Gore in my opinion will probably win the BG states such as Florida,
michigan and Pennslyvania where most of the polls give him a very small lead. However
Bush has a great chance of winning the popular vote by winning a state like Texas
by 3 million votes.

[marcus]

Rich, Where do you get your polling info? No poll has Gore ahead in Fla. and the polls in Mich. are a dead heat. This race could go either way. A slight lean toward Bush at this time. Low turnout is expected which will hurt Gore. I do believe the undecided voters will play it safe and vote Gore. It's too clost to call!!

[Rich]

3 new florida polls came out yesterday
2 showed gore ahead by 4 and 5 one bush 5

Cbs ny times Gore 4
Arg research Gore 5
sentinel Bush 5

2 other Arg polls show gore up 3 and 4 in
pennslyvania and Michigan. In truth this
race is all voter turnout in key states if
both groups are high Gore wins if Repubs show
up in much hugher mumbers he wins.

[tim]

This tread is like reading a Yahoo stock message board. The simple fact is...NOBODY REALLY KNOWS!! The polls conflict with each other...Turnout size will make a huge impact on the race but WHAT WILL THE TURNOUT BE?? Many times it depends on the weather. Does anyone have an ACCURATE forecast for November 7th..in EVERY United States Precinct?? Yeah..I didn't think so..At this point, it's Alydar and Affirmed.....

[chestrockwells]

Tim, elections are not really decided on election day. Polls like Gallup or even Zogby that are national tracking polls are of very limited value because they only poll 600-800 people across the country. That is why Gallup had Bush ahead by 10% 5 days ago, Gore ahead by 1% 2 days ago and Bush ahead by 7% today. Don't believe me, check it yourself. So are millions of people deciding on Bush then switching back to Gore and then back to Bush within 5-6 days? Also one thing that the polls don't talk about is what is margin of error. They don't mean that the numbers can be off by 3-4%. They mean that the numbers can be off by 3-4% with a (in this case) a 90% confidence or 2 standard deviations. Like I've said before the state by state polls are the ones to watch. And I don't mean 3 or 4 states on some sound byte you hear on the news........but all of them. I don't come on here and talk about things I know nothing about.

[tim]

CHESTROCK, you are obviously knowledgable in your field, and I don't believe that people are switching back between the candidates either. Polls are fun and interesting but are notoriously inaccurate. There are millions of undecided voters as well as millions of Nader supporters. Many of these people will make their final decisions right before Election Day, some won't make up their mind until they get in the booth! Factor this in with the unknown size of the turnout and I don't know how anyone can be confident in selecting a winner. Of course, that is why people wager and if you feel that good about it, bet the house...just don't ask me to sleep on the sofa if you're wrong....

[salak]

Originally posted by tim:
Factor this in with the unknown size of the turnout and I don't know how anyone can be confident in selecting a winner.

Except that, you don't have to know the winner if you can get Bush at +150 (like I did 3 weeks ago) and Gore at +170 (like I did yesterday).

[chestrockwells]

I hear you Tim. And I have been betting on this since March. I don't know about betting the house though, unless it's in Belize or something. All I got to say is this:
If I'm wrong on this, then the next 2 Presidential elections will be FREE on a recorded line.
Sorry JD, couldn't resist it!

[tim]

Funny stuff, Chestrock! I'm more worried about the country, though, if George Dubya gets elected..Salak, a beautiful trap..that's my favorite form of "gambling"..NO RISK!!!