Announcement

**freak** · 10-23-2000, 06:58 PM

KUDOS to DUNES

JETS -3 1/2

**sportshobby** · 10-23-2000, 09:55 PM

I hate the money line also, but I think I understand why it's there. Without it there are two problems for the books: First, they can get "sided" (all bets either push or win), which is pretty much a catastrophe for a big game like MNF.

Second, you have to consider the statistical size of the move. When the size of the move is comparable to the amount of the vig (which it is for the case we're discussing), then the book loses its normal edge.

Let's suppose that in a baseball game a team is a -120 favorite, and being bet heavily. If a book was forced to make the dog +125 in order to get their action balanced, you can see the problem they'd be in.

**DoggieStyle** · 10-24-2000, 01:09 AM

Bookmakers are just plain scared today...

I think it has alot to do with the fact that not too many books out there are willing to gamble for 1 reason or another and shows weakness of the industry.

A game like this, The Jets being a 3 point favorite, in a STRONG industry with BIG STRONG BOOKS leading the way would never have to change off the 3 -110!

There had to be Miami money at plus 3 -110! There's no way this was all one-sided action.

The 7-11 books today are so quick to change the juice these days and it is really getting pathetic. One book changes the juice and then 3 or 4 others have to get fancy and do the same thing.

Even if EVERYBODY was betting the Jets....

I can't believe 200 or more off-shore books and Vegas can't take all the action on this game without having to make the PLAYERS lay EXTRA juice on the JETS!

If they don't want to move off of 3.... Then don't make the PLAYERS lay extra juice when they make their bets on the Jets!

Don't books have the money to absorb even 1 big loss. Even if the books split these decisions they make a ton of juice!

The 7-11 books TODAY can't stand to get a big decision without trying to make the PUBLIC lay more juice! Not the wiseguys, THE PUBLIC! It kills them! That's all it is...... The books TODAY are so Quick to raise the juice if they can.........

That is also the NUMBER #1 reason Scum Books will use 2 lines..... 1 is for any customer that has a brain! The other line is for all the customers they can screw every now and then by raising the favorite, or the total, or the PUBLIC favorite that day!

I think the bookmakers are really weak and not just because of this, They are only hurting themselves with there non-thinking line moves. But then again how many bookmakers are sharp.

The intelligence on the bookmaking side is in a NOSE DIVE..............

**shoebox** · 10-24-2000, 11:59 AM

GUYS MAKE ALL THE COMMENTS YOU WANT ABOUT BOOKS BEING SCARED, THE # 3 IS A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT BALLGAME. THE SO CALLED BOOKS THAT YOU APPLAUD FOR USING 3.5 GOT CRUSHED LAST NIGHT. NORMALLY I AGREE W/ YOU GUYS AND I CANT STAND SEEING 6.5 -120 OR 7 -120, BUT THE # 3 CAN PUT BOOKS OUT OF BUSINESS. WHO DO YOU THINK WAS TAKING 3.5 IN THAT GAME? JOE PUBLIC, NO. ANYONE WHO CHOSE TO USE 3.5 LAST NIGHT GOT SIDED ON THAT GAME, SO COMPLAIN ALL YOU WANT BUT SOME OF THESE BOOKS WOULD LIKE TO STAY IN BUSINESS AND BE ABLE TO PAY ALL YOU WINNERS OUT THERE.

**DoggieStyle** · 10-24-2000, 02:10 PM

Shoebox,

That's not what I was talking about. The books that went to -3.5 got what they deserved. IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE DECISION THAN TO RISK GETTING SIDED ON A GAME THIS HUGE.

You would have to be a complete IDIOT to move the number on a big game like this to -3.5!

My point is why can't these books just let the action go. Why are they forced to move their number. On National T.V. games the books should just let the PUBLIC give them a BIG decision. WHY RISK GETTING MIDDLED?

My question is how come these books can't hold big decisions. You will always win more money if you just keep the decisions. Don't these book managers know that or are the books that broke that they can't afford to hold any big decisions?

There's over 200 off-shore books and a bunch of Vegas books. THAT'S PRETTY WEAK IF ALL THESE BOOKS CAN'T HOLD A DECISION ON 1 NATIONAL TV NFL FOOTBALL GAME!

P.S. Nobody said or wanted the books to move to -3.5. (except the middlers of course) I just don't see why the books can't just leave the game -3 (-110) and let the public bet the game!!!!!!!!! What ever happens... happens! The books will always win in the END!

But todays 7-11 books want to win EVERY DAY! They can't look at the over all picture............ Because they don't know how to book!

**intheknow** · 10-24-2000, 06:48 PM

Excellant point Doggie Style!
We stayed at 3 -110 the whole time and ended up winning on the total, so we won for the game.

**freak** · 10-24-2000, 06:50 PM

The way I see it on this game......

Is that people will be the favorite no matter who it is.

Why not try to gauge them at -120, -125 when all they will give back is even $$ or + 105...

This has me starting a new thread now....

**zippy** · 10-24-2000, 08:00 PM

At the risk of yet again revealing myself to be a hopeless square, I don�t see what�s objectionable about moving the money instead of the points. How is it unfair or unfavorable for the player?

If I�m interested in the underdog, do I like it when a book moves from 7 to 7.5? Sure. But I also like it when they let me have 7 at -100 or +105 instead of �110. Similarly, if I�m interested in the favorite, do I dislike having to pay �120 or �125 instead of �110 at �7? Sure. But I�d also dislike having to bet it at �7.5 instead of at -7.

Whether the book moves the money or the points, the wager becomes slightly less favorable for one side and slightly more favorable for the other. The precise degree to which it becomes more favorable or unfavorable depends on how much it moves, whether the movement is around a �key� number, etc. But in either case, there is a symmetry. It helps one side to the same degree it hurts the other.

I know Doggiestyle is making a different point, that books should be less inclined to move either. I�m not expressing an opinion on that one way or the other. I�m just not clear on why people object when books move the money instead of the points. Why are you �supposed� to bet at �110 instead of �120 or �130? Should your counterpart on the other side of the game who is betting at �100 or +110 complain that he ought to be betting at �110?

**DoggieStyle** · 10-24-2000, 08:53 PM

Zippy,

I am mainly talking about the Way these 7-11 books handle their Public players . These types of games draw the Public because they are on T.V.

You let them lay -110 on 50-75 football games every week, but when the game is 3, all of a sudden the books don't know how to handle it. It's a complete JOKE!

3 flat was a great number to use on this game. Take the action and hold a decision and let the players lose! They will!

What I'm saying is as soon as these 7-11 managers figure most of the Public is going to bet on the favorite they will JACK UP the price. They do it on EVERY GAME they can without letting the sharp players bet the dog if they can get away with it. (another reason for the 2 lines the garbage books use)

The problem is that when the game is 3 the books can't move the number the way they want. Because 3 is such an important number they just can't make the this line -3.5 because way too many players will just take the dog.

So they get TRICKY and make their players lay extra juice. (Yes you could just take the other side) but most players THAT ARE PLAYING FOR FUN are not going to change their bet for this reason. And that's what we are talking about... The players that are playing for fun.

I really think it is a Slap in the face to the PLAYERS that are playing for fun that these books are just too weak to take big decisions every now and then. That the books feel they have to raise the price EVERY CHANCE THEY GET. It's not the players fault 3 is such an important number and the book won't just let these games FALL WHERE THEY FALL. And it's not the players fault the book can't gamble a little and take a stand. I mean if the game lands 3 NOBODY GETS HURT!

Books 15 years ago and before would put up a 3 on that game and PAINT IT TILL IT STARTS! They didn't feel the need to JACK UP the price on EVERY thing they could, Like todays so-called bookies! They knew it was better to just let the players play on these type games!

Intheknow,

You guys got stiffed! The Dolphins have to be the stupidest team around. Giving this team to Wanstats to coach (or what ever the hell his name is). This guys a complete idiot! How sad....

You guys should have won that decision easy!

How can anybody be a Dolphin fan? First they run Marino out of town. Like they couldn't use him for ANYTHING? Then they hire one of Jimmy Johnsons Puppets.

Jimmy Johnson knows talent, But he's no Coach, and this retard, who he managed to get the job as the next Miami Coach is even more CLUELESS as a head Coach!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**zippy** · 10-24-2000, 09:26 PM

Thanks for the response, Doggiestyle. I have always appreciated your contributions. You obviously speak from experience, and whether right or wrong, you bring a welcome passion and frankness to the forums. Despite having spent more than your share of time on the other side of the counter, you have more bias toward the bettor over the book than even I do. Gotta love that.

On this issue, I don�t know that I share your feelings, but I respect your position. I don�t have a problem with a book setting the line where they feel it will be the most advantageous to them (either balancing their action, weighting things somewhat toward the side they believe is more likely to cover, or probably some combination of both, depending on their bookmaking philosophy). They set and move the line as they please, and I can take one side or the other or skip the game entirely. They make their decision based on what they believe will give them an edge, and I make mine based on what I think will give me an edge.

I guess what you�re advocating is almost like a bonus in another form. Instead of giving 10% on deposits or reducing the vig, etc., just do the players a favor by sometimes refraining from putting the line where you anticipate it will make the most money for the house. It would be nice of them to do that, I suppose, but I don�t see anything particularly objectionable about their not doing so.

I understand, also, that you�re addressing money moves and point moves equally, not criticizing one and endorsing the other. I am more puzzled by the various posts I�ve seen in this thread and others that take it as obvious that moving to something other than �110 on each side is somehow unfair to the player compared to moving the pointspread.

**Socceroo** · 10-24-2000, 09:40 PM

Zippy - Like you I am also a hopeless sqaure when it comes to US sports, I rely on the excellent knowledge of the cappers on this site, probably posters like doggiestyle. I have to say though that I agree with your point about moving numbers/moneylines to try to attract business on the other side, it seems logical and I am sure that it does work in practice.

I think people moan about it because it costs them money, pure and simple. Perhaps the US side is moving more towards the European systems that I have to put up with when betting on soccer with vastly overpriced favorites on every single game. But what can you do if they are going to win the game you have to bet on them. I know that there is no point spread to take into account but that policy still costs us money.

So while I sympathise and empathise with Doggiestyle I would also like to throw up one small point. That is; the relationship between the bookie and the bettor, I see it clearly as a battle, it's us and them, no question, no favors. They are trying to beat us and we are sure as hell trying to beat them.

It is one of life's great battles, no blood
shed only tears. If we analysed it most of the time it's not the money (it's nice) but the victory that is sweetest. We hate the bookies and were trying to put them out of business as much as they want us to get down to a zero balance. I do not think I would want it any other way.

One point to be aware of though is the value for money issue, it is out of hand in Europe no doubt about that, it is for that reason alone that people like Doggiestyle should continue to shout to make sure the US Sportsmarket does not go the same way.

Thanks for posting a great topic Freak.

**sportshobby** · 10-25-2000, 07:42 AM

What's even worse than setting a moneyline with the pointspread is this: having every book post the same number at -110. So here's another viewpoint on this issue. When all the books are on a big number like 3, the moneylines will usually have some variation from which to shop.

So introducing moneylines can give the smart shopper another way to find value.

**SLAM DUNK** · 10-25-2000, 02:10 PM

Zippy, regarding the -120, or -125 lines, a sharp player really should have no problem with it. You just have to realize that every
line is a different break even point and adjust your decision making process to adapt.
-115 = 53.5%
-120 =54.5 %
-125=55.5 %
-130= 56.5%

I think the problem is that most sports bettors fall into 2 categories

1) they have learned how to decipher a small edge at -110 but when you start mixing -120's and -125's into the equation there thought process gets thrown for a loop(as well as their P/L statment). It is an adjustment process, and will take some getting used to.

2) they are your typical "square" who bets who they like, hits around 50% or less and is not about to alter his bet because the operator says Jet -3 -125. He probably could not tell you the significance of -125 or what the break even percentage is. But since he can only hit 50%, the sports book has found an easy way to seperate him from more of his money, because at a 52.3% break even point they have a small chance but start throwing in 54-56% break even points, forget it.

Another problem with the -120's etc. , is that there are times that a game might be more attractive to the player at -3 than at
-2 1/2 -125, or vice versa, for other reasons than the basic mathematical analysis

Regarding leaving the line at 3. -110. I actually agree with Doggie Style, to a degree. I think this fear of getting sided is ridiculous. Lets say I am a book with
100 dimes on Jets + 3 and
50 dimes with Miami -3

both at -110.

If Jets cover I lose 45 dimes if Miami covers I win 60 dimes. Thus I only have to win 45 of 105 decisions or a breakeven point of 42.85%. Did the Jets have over a 57.15% chance of covering 3. Well thats where Doggie Styles point about having a bookmaker with talent comes in. Obviously if the bookmaker felt the answer was yes, he would have opened at 3 1/2, if he felt the answer was no, he leaves it at -110 and lets the chips fall where they may. I fully agree that a bookmaker should have talent, and should not depend on the linesmakers, because frankly the linesmakers aren't that talented(contrary to popular belief).

A little off the subject, but I am sure some of the dual line books are having a good time with this, quoting -125's to the squares and -115's to the sharps.

**freak** · 10-25-2000, 06:48 PM

I want to toss this out there for thought.....

For the games that have a line of -3

What % of those games actually land on the 3.

Now that will lead us to even more questions....

On this game I got lucky I did get Miami at + 3 1/2 and yes I would have bet it at + 3 + 110, so there is no bias on my part. I just think if you lay a number out there, either let a player try to beat you, which is obvious most won't, or keep screwing with the fun/casual bettors.

I haven't bet with a bookie(corner) in years, I wonder if they use such numbers now...

Anyone know from their local man if willing to say so here.....

Announcement

3 the almighty sacred number books cant move off..... It's a number folks wake up....

3 the almighty sacred number books cant move off..... It's a number folks wake up....

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