Implications of line moves

[deepsouth]

The only sport I consider myself halfway decent at picking is baseball. I noticed last summer when the Pokers were playing that I would often receive "confirmation" that I had made good plays by seeing big line moves later. Then when Reno and others reported that the Pokers had quit, I stopped getting such confirmation. I made a decent profit in baseball, but in football, it has been a struggle and indeed the line moves go against me nearly as often as they "confirm" for me.

With this in mind, I was wondering if it's possible to get a good read on what sports are beatable by checking out line moves. That is, maybe I can't beat football, but clearly the syndicates are up to something as we see those sudden line moves (screen goes black) all the time. So to me this suggests that at least someone else has something that works in football.

Is this a good test as to whether or not a sport is beatable? If a sport's closing lines are often different from opening lines, that would seem to suggest to me that either the linewriters often make obvious mistakes that lots jump on or that some of the syndicates having something going on. For example, I've never given serious consideration to second half lines .. do they move very often? If there is frequent movement in second half lines, does this indicate that someone has a good system for betting them? (Seems to me the movers must be good, otherwise we'd just wait for the moves, then bet against them).

[Mikes1212]

Deepsouth, the last sentence in parenthesis you wrote basically somes it up. If the line moves were because of square action, then I would the numbers would get hammered back the other way. Since they rarely do, this suggest it is wiseguy action, and if you have an out that is slow adjusting their lines then I would believe there is value and it would be beneficial to bet it. I'd like to hear what some others think about this.

[Jeff]

More than a few have gone broke following line moves. Especially football line moves.

In football, their are too many different sources and reasons for the moves. Without knowing the source of the plays, and trying to play every move that comes across the board, is a recipe for disastor.

No question there are some very successful groups out there, in all sports. But unless you're privy to who's doing what, you may as well throw darts. Otherwise, you'll be playing some of the plays of one group, some of the plays of another, etc.etc. Not to mention you'll be taking the worst of it more often than not.

Also keep in mind, there are plenty of sharp players that find value going AGAINST these moves.

You're likely to have the most success with this approach, in College hoops, NBA totals, and baseball......even Hockey actually.

[reno]

I echo Jeff's advice. Anyone seriously interested in following "steam" moves should research how strong they are in a particular sport in specific months over the previous few seasons. An approximate way to do this is to simply compare the opening lines and closing lines against the final results. One can also determine in which cases it may prove lucrative to go against moves. Opening and closing line histories can be procured from Don Best and Computer Sports World.

[bucky]

Baseball is the easiest to beat. Even bad teams win 70 games or 43%. In football that would be 7 games. How many bad football teams will win 7 games or cover 7 games?

As far as line moves, injuries, steam, and etc. I would still rather know who the bookmakers need to win and get on that side. My opinion is that if the line moves a little late take the side they are trying to get money on. They are just trying to reduce their exposure so they must have wanted people to bet the other side or they would have moved the line faster or earlier.