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Do any of you mathematicians know how much having the ball first is worth on a halftime line? Is that info factored into the line or do they seem to ignore it? Thanks in advance for adding to my gaming knowledge. Now, if I could just remember who, in fact, kicked off to start the game (I recognize that this does not guarantee they'll get the ball to start second half).
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It would be nice knowing who has the ball in the first half, but that's tough to find out unless you've got a buddy at the game and you've got the whole cell thing going... For the second half, it's easy, just look at the play by play at NFL.com or ESPN and you'll find out who got the ball first. The second half line definitelly factors that in, it's probably worth about 1/2 point, as far as I'm concerned... A lot of second half lines are set depending on how much handle a book's had on the game and the score at half time. I've been playing 2nd half lines with moderate success this season, maybe 10-12 plays so far. I usually look for a big fave that is down at half time. The book will set the line so that they barely win the game or get close at the end.
Some recent examples: Indianapolis @ Chicago. Chicago was up big, took the colts and won
New England @ Cleveland - Pats were down and out but should have scored some in the second half. Took the pats and lost
Baltimore @ Tennessee - Baltimore was up 3 at half, the 2nd half line was Tennessee -3 and they were getting the ball in the second half...
Another category is teams that suffer injuries in the first half...
Bills were up 7 at half time in NE with crappy conditions and Bledsoe messed up his finger. 2nd half line was Buffalo +1, which I took. They won the game in OT but messed up the 2nd half line...
Following week, Bills were up 3 at half time and Jim Miller's ACL went AOL... 2nd half line was Bills -4 and they covered it.
It's all a matter of working the numbers and having multiple outs to figure out when to pull the trigger. I've been following 2nd half lines for about 2 seasons now and I have a feel about where it will open and what direction it will move in so you have to be on your toes.
I think I've run around in circles here and probably did not answer your question, but it's Friday morning and it's a slow day at the office...
May all your bets be winners
May all your bets be winners
www.footballstart.com -
DEAC DOUG,
THE HALF BOOK BY JACK GRANOWSKI AVAILABLE AT THE GAMBLERS BOOKSTORE MIGHT BE A VALUABLE TOOL FOR YOU IN FINE TUNING YOUR HANDICAPPING OF HALF TIMES.
REALITY
[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 11-17-2000).]Comment
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Reality Indeed a great book. Indepth data on criteria books use on setting lines.Comment
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