POSTING A -18 FAV. AT +18 WHAT IS A BOOK TO DO?

[Bookiebar]

Right now the RLWC game (Wales Aussie)is getting pounded, Wales at +58.5 at the NSWTAB.com.au, and Aussie -52 at Willhill, so somebody has got it wrong.. (these bookies tend to move the ML rather than the points however). But I can tell you as sure as rain that I will be getting paid (if I win!) no matter what the outcome. For those who do not know a 6 point diff is the same in Rugby league as a 7pt touchdwon in NFL, so thats a VERY big diff in lines here (& even more if you took the NZTAB @+50.5 earlier before they closed).

But is it a bad line? or competition?

[AussieVamp2]

Or different linemakers linemaking?

[AussieVamp2]

Or a tennis example

Scud was $1.60 at one place
$1.85 at anothera couple of games ago - did either of these weasel out of them as 'bad lines'? Don't think so, that was what they put up.

Reversed sign is different, of course.

[Bookiebar]

I would have to say diff linemakers line making! These totaliser agency boards
(TAB's) in Australasia and the UK bookies have (I suspect ;-) real bookmakers making real lines based on real money, they move the money to balance THEIR books not to follow the all the others out there, it is quite common to have a significant diff between them all when betting on these sports(www.onthepunt.com.au is a great site for checking out odds on the Aussie bookies). Great for shopping around.. Take the David Tua fight recently the NZTAB had the best odd in the world on Lewis come fight day @1.55. Why? to layoff as much of the money bet on Tua (they took over 1 million on the fight and 95% of it on Tua) as they could to minimise their risk, now thats bookmaking, having the best odds to attract the customers you want. Who cares what other bookmakers odds are as long as your balancing your books. (great scalp by the way as most others had Tua @4.00 & even 4.50).

Another example is on the RLWC game tonight (this morning US time) Will hill opened their spread on Aussie @ -52 vs Wales @ +52 $1.83 (-120) they obviously are taking money on Aussie to cover this as the spread is the same but they have moved the ML out to $2.00 on Wales to attract the buy back, complete opposite happened at the NSWTAB, spread opened at +58.5 $1.85 and Wales got hit, so the ML went up on Aussie to $2.00. Thus both bookmakers have obviously set their line wrong and it should be around +54ish and are moving the ML to compensate. Not sure why they do not move the points? But anyway you see my point the public is moving both lines to where they should be.

Both were bad lines but you will not see anybody in here tomorrow complaining they did not get paid from these book makers. As they are solid bookmakers based or registered in countries that have had laws governing bookmakers behaviour for most of this century. Not sure what the laws are exactly in these "island" countries but I would put my last nickel on them being bookmaker friendly.


[This message has been edited by Bookiebar (edited 11-19-2000).]

[sportshobby]

UB made an important point that was glossed over here - THE BOOK SHOULD POST A RULE ON THIS IN THIER RULES! It should clearly state the number of points or odds difference that qualify it as an error. And there should be some mention of WHEN it can be cancelled (hopefully before the event starts), and what actions the book will take to try and contact the player.

But by NOT posting anything about this, the book fosters ill will from those who might not have known that the line was in error. Also, this kind of policy opens the door for abuse by books who might try and take advantage of the player (yes, some will).

[wintermute]

Brother REALITY. I read quickly thru the replies to your post and I don't think you've mentioned anywhere what you think the difference is between a line posted in error and a good line.

I wager predominantly on sports like baseball and hockey that use moneylines and my rules of thumb are:

1) for 20 cent lines there is no problem if the line is less than or equal to 10 cents off the average posted for that game over the 12 or so books that I bet at.

2) if the line is greater than 10 cents but less than or equal to 20 cents different from the average I'll try to scalp the game but will wait an hour or so to make sure that the book will let the wager stand before covering the other side

3) if there is a difference of greater than 20 cents I avoid it. Sometimes I'll tell the book but lately I've pretty much stopped doing that because a lot of the time the person at the other end doesn't seem to have a clue what I'm talking about.

To show you what I mean here is an email I sent to a book recently. The game was a pickem NHL game between Colorado and Phoenix. The book had Phoenix at +1.5 -130!!! Everone else had Phoenix at something like +0.5 -140.

From me:

NHL game between Colorado and Phoenix is way off.

Reply:

Greetings from -sportsbook-. We are always happy to hear from our customers. Please be so kind as to specify what exactly it is we can help you with, or feel free to call us at -phone number- and we will be more than happy to assist you.

Thank you for your time and preference.

Best Regards,
-name-
Customer Service

AS you can see, polite but brain dead.

As another example, another book posted hockey lines for at least a week that had the following format.

Team A +0.5 +100 Team B -0.5 +100.

I called them up and tried to persuade one of their people for at least 5 minutes that they weren't going to make a lot of money posting lines where both sides pay off at even money but to no avail.

Does anyone keep track of their employees anymore???

wintermute

[Bookiebar]

Sporthobby,

I agree on this that the books should either state that they honour all bets no matter what or all that don’t fall within the reaches of obvious human error, and they should state the boundaries clearly.

However, how do you think it looks when a new sports gambler stumbles across a sports book his mate recommended, places a couple of hundred down on a his fav college team, and finds out its been cancelled due to the line being "bad". Not a good look?

We had a case here when a slot machine went off and a guy won a car, while he was waiting he played the machine again and won another car! Casino said the machine was faulty, but how could it be it was just working fine a few mins ago? Anyway it went to court and a few months later the guy ended up with two cars.

Similar situation applies here the new sports gambler has no idea he is buying into a bad line, or using a faulty machine (lets assume he isn’t reading your papers with all the lines printed in them...) so why should he be the one being punished for a "faulty" line?? Its not his fault? Why does he have to know what the line should or should not be? Isn’t that what he's paying (in vig) for the sports book to sort out? That’s the bookmakers job for crying out loud if they can't do it properly, and check them properly don't do it at all.

Why do you think a casino has a camera on all its slots and technicians fixing them constantly?

I agree that if you know what you are doing you will know when a line is off, but what credibility does this give sports books when they are cancelling bets of new gamblers?? This isn't just about people who know what they are doing like most on this site but about the whole industry credibility. Why do you think there is such a backlash against online gambling? I would have to say partly from the lack of any clearly defined industry standards and until these are sorted out there is always going to be some sports books bending the rules in their favour.

Wintermute, this is my point exactly if a company cannot operate its book properly it deserves to go out of business, and on its way it shouldn't attempt to blame its customers for it's stupidity.

Just wait till the BIG casinos join the online sportsbetting business (like Harrah's is or is about to), this will be a NON-issue, they will just either not make these mistakes or they will honour them.

[This message has been edited by Bookiebar (edited 11-19-2000).]

[REALITY]

BROTHER MUTE,

YOU ARE FORMALLY A MEMBER OF THE CHURCH OF HONEST BETTING ETTIQUTE.

THERE ARE NONE SO BLIND AS THOSE WHO REFUSE TO SEE...

IF YOU WERE KIND TO ENOUGH TO POINT OUT THE ERROR OF THEIR WAYS AND THEY CONTINUED TO ERR,THEN CONSIDER IT A GIFT FROM ABOVE AND PARTAKE OF WHAT IS GIVEN...

THIS IS HIS WAY OF CLEANSING THE BRAIN DEAD FROM POSITIONS OF AUTHORITY.

IF HOWEVER YOU TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN OBVIOUS GROSS ERROR IN THE LINE WITHOUT SUCH NOTIFICATION,IT IS WRITTEN:

BE WARY OF THY ROD AND STAFF...

PEACE BROTHER,

BROTHER REALITY

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 11-19-2000).]

[Bookiebar]

How do you think a book maker goes out of business?

By posting bad lines and not balancing the risk, simple, the bookmaker is in the business of selling numbers if the numbers are bad then bookmaker is bad. Why should I be held responsible for bad bookmaking?

Do you really think all these sportbooks are going to around in the next 10 years?

[REALITY]

BOOKIEBAR,

THE FASTEST WAY FOR A B.M.TO GO BROKE IS WEAK OPENING NUMBERS AND MISMANAGEMENT OF THE LINE THEREAFTER DUE TO WEAK OPENING NUMBERS.

THE EXPOSURE IN THE LINE IS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WHAT THE HOUSE HOLDS %WISE.

AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE LINE INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR PROFITABILITY DECREASES.

IT IS AN INVERSE PROPORTION.

REALITY

[Bookiebar]

Exactly bad bookmaking, now the problem is what is the difference between competition, bad bookmaking and obviously bad human error lines.

How to distinguish between them all? Why should it be the customer having to do this, which it is at the moment?

[REALITY]

BOOKIEBAR,

INCORRECTLY POSTED LINES ARE THE EXCEPTION AND NOT THE RULE.

LET'S NOT MAKE A MOUNTAIN OUT OF A MOLE HILE.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS ARE:

A.HONORING A LEGITIMATE LINE THAT YOU POST

B.HONOR THE WAGER YOU ACCEPT.

C.PAYMENT ON DEMAND

DON'T ASK WHAT CONSTITUTES A LEGITIMATE LINE BECAUSE WE KNOW WHAT A LEGITIMATE LINE IS.

REALITY

[Bookiebar]

Agreed. Point taken.

[gord]

Dear brethern: If thowest CONSTANTLY and SPECIFICALLY wagers into mistakes then thow should takest thine business elsewhere.

If thow thinkest there might be an error then a confirmation is necessary on thine readback and thow bet shall have honor.

Let no wager be cast aside after it has been graded

Forgive thy customers errors so that they might not hold ours against us

To those who remaineth unrepentant:
If thine bank deposits a large sum into your account....spendith thy unearned manna....
But please savest thow a quarter to calleth me and preach to me then.... on living with thine mistakes.

[REALITY]

THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO BROTHER GORD:

A READING FROM THE BOOK OF HONESTY.

PROCEED BROTHER GORD>


Dear brethern: If thowest CONSTANTLY and SPECIFICALLY wagers into mistakes then thow should takest thine business elsewhere.

If thow thinkest there might be an error then a confirmation is necessary on thine readback and thow bet shall have honor.

Let no wager be cast aside after it has been graded

Forgive thy customers errors so that they might not hold ours against us

To those who remaineth unrepentant:
If thine bank deposits a large sum into your account....spendith thy unearned manna....
But please savest thow a quarter to calleth me and preach to me then.... on living with thine mistakes.

CAN I GET AN AMEN?

AMEN!

GO IN PEACE...

BROTHER REALITY