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While I'm probably not betting this game either way as far as the side goes, here's the scouting report I've put together in
analyzing this matchup. First position by position, then offense versus defense, the coaching, then intangibles.
QUARTERBACK--Neither of these guys is exactly John Elway or Brett Favre, but this position has to rate as either even or an
edge to the Giants depending on which Kerry Collins shows up. Collins seems to have grown up this season and even more
importantly, he no longer seems afraid to take the big hit which has helped the offense here as he hangs in the pocket better.
When this guy was at Penn State and in his first two seasons with the Carolina Panthers, he was rock steady in the pocket, but
then in his third season he took an incredible helmet to the face hit from the notorious Bill Romanowski that broke Collins' jaw
and he was not the same player the next few years. I think this was a bigger factor than his apparent drinking problems as he
had "happy feet" for his last two seasons in Carolina and his horrible year in New Orleans. But he seems to overcome that fear
and he continued to get better throughout this season and he's looked outstanding in the playoffs as he seems very comfortable
with the new offensive coordinator. Trent Dilfer on the other hand is at best an average NFL quarterback, which is OK because
Baltimore doesn't ask him to do too much. Like Collins he has overcome past anxiety in the pocket and has become a steady
leader who rarely makes mistakes, but he still had 12 TDs compared to 11 interceptions. By contrast, Collins had 23 TDs with
13 interceptions. Collins threw the ball 529 to Dilfer's 226 attempts (remember he was the backup to Tony Banks for much of
the season) and they still had about the same number of interceptions. In a game where the defenses are first rate, look for
Dilfer to be the guy more likely to make the key mistake and Collins to be the guy more likely to make the big play.
EDGE: GIANTS
RUNNING BACKS--Both teams have a 1,000-yard rusher and an excellent backup who plays extensively. Also, both starting
backs have a tendency to fumble which will be huge in a game with this much defense on both sides of the field. The best
running back on the field will be rookie Jamal Lewis for the Ravens who had nearly 1,400 yards and is a big back with speed
and power. Lewis is pretty much the total package and he should get nothing but better, while his backup Priest Holmes is an
underrated player who can run, catch and even block despite limited size. For the Giants, Tiki Barber is awfully tough for a little
guy, but the key words are "for a little guy!" He can't get you that 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2, but what he can do is contribute
HEAVILY as a pass receiver coming out of the backfield and he caught more passes than anyone on the entire Baltimore team,
even the wide receivers. But it's hard to imagine Barber having much success running outside against a team with linebackers
as fast as the Ravens have, and it's nearly impossible to imagine smash-mouth backup Ron Dayne blasting inside for much
yardage against the huge Baltimore defensive tackles Tony Siragus and Sam Adams.
EDGE: RAVENS
WIDE RECEIVER--This is an area where the Giants have a HUGE advantage, much larger than most people realize. Amani
Toomer (78 catches for 1,100 yards) and Ike Hilliard (55 catches for 800 yards despite missing three games) are NO LONGER
the disappointments they were early in their respective careers. Both of these guys have emerged as top notch players,
perhaps just a notch below Pro Bowl caliber. On the other hand, the Ravens have just one reliable wide receiver in Quadry
Ismail who had 49 catches and has the speed to get open deep if Dilfer can make the deep throw. But after Ismail, no
Baltimore wide receiver caught more than 28 passes and the trio of Travis Taylor, Jermaine Lewis and Pat Johnson is nothing to
write home about. Other than Ismail, there is not a legitimate starting wide receiver on the Ravens roster.
EDGE: GIANTS
TIGHT END--Not much to say here because Shannon Sharpe is light years ahead of New York's three-headed monster of Pete
Mitchell, Howard Cross and Dan Campbell. Sharpe is still a first rate player even at this stage of his career and he MAY make a
huge play in this game the way he did in the AFC title game against Oakland.
EDGE: RAVENS
OFFENSIVE LINE--Both of these offensive lines have been better than anyone could have expected. Baltimore has the best
blocker on either team in left tackle Jon Ogden, but I think the Giants five guys end up being just as good as the Ravens five
guys because they have an edge in the middle where their guards and center are better. Ogden and the underrated old-timer
Harry Swayne will help Baltimore get outside with their running game and these two should keep Dilfer relatively safe from an
outside pass rush, but center Jeff Mitchell is nothing special and the guards are below average, especially for a Super Bowl
team. The Giants don't have a superstar up front because Lomas Brown is like 100 years old at this point, but he's still pretty
good as is emerging young right tackle Luke Petitgout. While Baltimore has the edge at tackle, New York's inside trio of Dusty
Zeigler, Ron Stone and tough guy Glenn Parker have a big edge over the Ravens interior trio. I call this a push because two
tackles count just as much as the other three spots combined.
EDGE: EVEN
DEFENSIVE LINE: Both teams are in really good shape here, but you have to give the Ravens a slight edge. Tackles Siragusa
and Adams do a great job stuffing the run and DEs Michael McCrary and Rob Burnett can get up the field as pass rushers while
still holding rock solid versus the run. Everyone knows that Baltimore led the league by giving up just 61 yards per game
rushing, but I bet you didn't know that the Giants were second in the NFL and gave up just 72 yards per game on the ground.
While the Ravens got all the press, the Giants were every bit as awesome against the run. Keith Hamilton is first rate at tackle
when he's fully motivated and he IS this year, and Christian Peter is getting better, especially against the run. While Cedric
Jones is a weak link at one defensive end and the reason I give a slight edge to the Ravens here, you gotta love Michael
Strahan at the other flank. This guy is a gamer and I expect him to have a big Super Bowl. Also, for all the attention on the
Ravens's defense this year, I bet you didn't know that they only had 35 sacks as a team which put them in the bottom half of
the league stats. This is closer than you think and could go either way, but...
EDGE: RAVENS
LINEBACKER--Wow, these are two SICK units. The Giants have two Pro Bowl caliber players in former Miami Hurrican
teammates Michael Barrow and Jesse Armstead, but the Ravens have THREE legitmate Pro Bowl linebackers in Ray "Honest
your honor it wasn't me" Lewis, Peter Boulware and Jamie Sharper. Lewis is probably the best linebacker in the game right
now, perhaps even the best player in the league in some people's minds. Boulware has been better in the past, but in some
ways he's sacrificed his own game for the benefit of the team, while Sharper is VASTLY underrated and gets better every year.
The Giants are REAL GOOD here, but the Ravens have one of the top trios in NFL history.
EDGE: RAVENS
SECONDARY: This is a tough call here because both teams have one great cornerback and three rock solid players at the other
spots. You've gotta believe that Jason Sehorn is going to make a big play here in the Super Bowl for New York. He finally
seems to be at 100% after a nasty knee injury two years ago and when he's on his game, there's no better corner in the
league at 6-3, with 4.35 speed and amazing athleticism and leaping ability. Dave Thomas has good size at the other corner for
New York, but he can be shaky, especially in man-to-man situations. The only thing is, Baltimore may not have the good
number two wide receiver to exploit Thomas which is a huge break for the Giants. Safeties Sam Garnes and Shaun Williams are
solid but nothing outstanding. For Baltimore, Chris McAlister is a rising star at corner, though he still gambles too much and can
be beat for the big play. But McAlister does have the size to match up with Hilliard and/or Toomer. Duane Starks has great
speed on the other corner, but he too is a gambler who can bite on the hooks and give up the big play. Rod Woodson is on the
way down, but he's still a great free safety even at his advanced age, but Kim Herring is playing hurt at the other safety and he
missed the last two playoff games. Herring will be back, but you wonder if the Ravens would be smarter to go with Corey Harris
who seemed to have the "hot hand" the past two games replacing Herring. This is just too close to call.
EDGE: EVEN
SPECIAL TEAMS--Unless Tiki Barber or Ron Dixon can surprise with a kick return of some sort, this should be a big edge for the
Ravens. New York kicker Brad Daluiso is not as good as some of his numbers might suggest and I think he's VERY shaky if it
comes down to him. Ravens kicker Matt Stover is not as good as he was when they were in Cleveland, but he's still one of the
top five or ten kickers in the league. Brad Maynard is a pretty good punter for the Giants, but Kyle Richardson is one of the best
"directional" punters I've ever seen and he's a big part of why Baltimore wins so many battles for field position. This guy rarely
gets touchbacks and he's always pinning people inside the 20. Tiny return man Jermaine Lewis makes a lot of big plays for
Baltimore and he can be really explosive. This area is a huge edge for Baltimore.
EDGE: RAVENS
NEW YORK OFF. vs. BALTIMORE DEF.--I can't see the Giants running the ball at all against these guys. Barber won't get outside
much with the speed at linebacker and Dayne will get swallowed up by the mutants up front like Siragusa. However, I do think
Collins can move the ball a little through the air because the Ravens do not have the greatest pass rush in the world. If you
give Collins time to throw, and a wide open offensive philosophy like the Giants used against the Vikings, he is capable of
hurting Baltimore in the medium to deep range or on delayed plays to Barber swinging out of the backfield. The Giants may be
lucky to rush for 50 yards, but don't be too shocked if Collins passes for at least 250.
BALTIMORE OFF. vs. NEW YORK DEF.--While the Giants are far from vulnerable against the run, I do think the Ravens can run
the ball a little with Jamal Lewis. He has the speed to get off tackle with the help of Ogden and Swayne, and once Lewis gets
there he has the size to take on somewhat undersized but speedy linebackers like Armstead and Barrow. I like Barrow, but he's
not a true run stopper at middle linebacker. In fact, when they were in college, Armstead and Barrow used to start at outside
'backer for Miami with none other than Ray Lewis in the middle. As for the Baltimore passing game, well...let's just say that if
they can't run the ball, I don't see how they can score unless the Giants allow a huge broken play like Sharpe had for the
Ravens against Oakland. Dilfer will NOT beat the Giants unless he gets major support from his running game and he'll just be
trying to avoid the big interception.
COACHING--I may be in the distinct minority on this one, but I'm not that impressed yet with Brian Billick. He came to
Baltimore with a heavy rep as an offensive genius and their offense since he arrived has generally lacked imagination. Now
some of that has to do with his personnel, but he's become painfully conservative this season, relying almost solely on his
defense to create short fields for him. This has worked because Baltimore has forced way more fumbles than anyone else
which is why the Ravens average scoring drive this year is far and away the shortest in the league. So if the Giants avoid big
mistakes, Billick is in trouble on offense. Also, he has not impressed me with his attitude in interviews the past two weeks. He
seems like he's on edge and comes across (to me) like a guy who is not 100% comfortable with where he is and not 100%
confident in his team. Jim Fassel seems very relaxed, almost too relaxed at this point, but I'm a bigger fan of his coaching than
Billick. While Fassel can also be conservative at times, he has opened it up dramatically the past two months and he seems to
believe in his quarterback, which is something Billick cannot claim. If you look at the offensive gameplans in the playoffs, it's
not hard to see that the Giants were more innovative, imaginative and effective. Baltimore looked decent on offense against
Denver, but they did ZERO in the win against the Titans and seemed to have no offensive scheme at all other than Jamal Lewis
left, Jamal Lewis right and hope for a good coffin corner punt. The same was true against Oakland where their offensive stats
were skewered by the big pass play to Sharpe. Some people may strongly disagree, but I think this is a big edge for the
Giants.
EDGE: GIANTS
INTANGIBLES--The Giants are barely being talked about this week as the whole focus has been on Ray Lewis, Brian Billick,
Sterling Sharpe, the great Baltimore defense and where they rank in NFL history, etc...this is a good position to be in as you
head into the Super Bowl. You can use it as motivation for your team and paint them as these huge underdogs when they are
actually only slight underdogs. On the other hand, Baltimore may "rally around" their teammate Ray Lewis who they feel is
being unfairly attacked by the media. The Lewis situation could prove to be a distraction, but more likely will emerge as a
rallying cry. As a result, I call this a push.
EDGE: EVEN
CONCLUSION--So what does this tell me...well...I think it means you should find some amusing props to play for small amounts
and spend most of your time focusing on what should be a hard-hitting and very close game. Also, try and focus more attention
to the party you're attending since keeping your wagers small will enable you to eat too much and drink too much without
sweating the game too much. Of course, if you're by a computer where you can bet in-progress, halftimes, etc...I would
recommend going easy on the booze.
Good Luck,
Mark D.