THE VEGAS FIGURES....

[REALITY]

Karol
Moderator posted 03-21-2001 12:14 PM
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You asked for it, so here are your numbers. Note that sports books do not independently provide their handle/win in the gaming reports we have access to. We can estimate and MGM/Mirage would be a major candidate to handle the most. The Mirage properties alone (before adding the recent merger with MGM) could amount to about 15-20% of the entire state. Their hold percentage would be lower than the state hold because of their client base and they take the largest bets with the highest limits. Stardust, Hilton/Caesars would be close seconds.
Through fiscal 2000 (ending June, 2000)

STATEWIDE - 157 sports books reporting
$2.56 billion. Win $117.5 million. Hold 4.59%

Las Vegas Strip only - handle $1.7 billion. Win $61.6 million. Hold 3.58%

By sport:
All Football - 39.5% of all handle - $1 billion. Win 4.98%

All Basketball - 27.05% of all handle - $693 million. Win 3.79%

Baseball - 25.75% of all handle - $659 million. Win 1.85%

Parlay Cards - 2.48% of all handle - $63.3 million. Win 34.88%

Other includes boxing, auto racing, tennis, golf, etc.) - 5.18% of all handle - $133 million. Win 4.72%

[OLD MAN]

REALITY
WHAT WOULD YOU ESTIMATE IS THE HANDLE FOR
THE TOP DOZEN BOOKS ON THE DB SCREEN?????

[REALITY]

OLDMAN,

I WOULDN'T HAZZARD A GUESS BUT IT'S LARGE I'M SURE...

REALITY

[reno]

The essence of these figures is that Vegas books did great. If players hit 50% at -110, a book would have a 4.54% hold. The fact that the Vegas average was 4.59% disproves the theory that wiseguy computer thinktanks
and immense syndicates are destroying sportsbooks.

One Don Best book handled nearly 900 million in bets last year. If their average hold was 4.59% like Vegas, then they'd have grossed over 40 million dollars. Conclusion: Hold the crying towels. The bookies aren't starving.

[REALITY]

RENO,

THESE FIGURES WERE FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDING JUNE 2,000 AND DIDN'T INCLUDE LAST YEARS FOOTBALL SEASON WHICH WAS HORRIBLE.

YOUR POST DIDN'T HOLD WATER ACROSS THE STREET SO IT WONT HOLD WATER HERE EITHER.

THE BOOK YOU CLAIM WROTE 900 MILLION, DIDN'T.

THAT'S 18 MILLION A WEEK.

THEY DID WRITE BIG ASIAN BASEBALL BUSINESS WHICH IS NO BARGAIN FOR THE HOUSE.

UNDER OPTIMUM CONDITIONS THEY THEORETICALLY COULD WIN 2.27% BY LEVELING DECISIONS BY ONLY MOVING A NICKEL WHICH THEY CANT.

YOU COULD HAVE NEVER FOUND VALUE IN THAT SUBTLE A MOVE.

THEY HAD TO OVERMOVE WHICH FURTHER CUT DOWN THEIR EXPECTED WIN %.

THE FACT THAT IT WAS GOOD FOR YOU BECAUSE YOU FOUND PRICES THERE YOU COULD SCALP PROVES THAT POINT.

THROUGH THE MIRACLE OF CUT AND PASTE HERE IT IS AGAIN FOR YOU:

ASSUMING 4.54% WHEN LAYING 11/10 ON BOTH SIDES.
IN BASEBALL THERE IS ONLY JUICE WHEN THE DOG BARKS.

ASSUMING A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN FAVS AND DOGS YOU CAN CUT THAT 4.54% IN HALF IF YOU COULD WRITE BASEBALL ACTION TO A PUSH AS FAR A DECISIONS, AND YOU CANT.

SO YOU CAN LOOK FORWARD TO HALF OF 4.54% OR 2.27% OR CAN YOU?

NO YOU CANT.

THAT FIGURE WOULD BE DERIVED IF THE FAV WAS-1.15 AND YOU WERE BET THE LIMIT AND MOVED THE PLAY 5 CENTS TO 1.20 AT WHICH POINT SOMEONE TOOK THE DOG +1.10 AND THE GAME WAS LEVELED AND THE DOG WON.

ONLY ONE PROBLEM HERE.

IF THE POKERS OR KOSHERS PLAY YOUR NOT MOVING THOSE PLAYS 5 CENTS...

THERE GOES YOUR 2.27% IF YOU COULD THEORETICALLY LEVEL EVERY GAME IN BASEBALL FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON...

REALITY

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RENO,

NONE OTHER THAN THE "SAVIOUR" DANA OF WIT SAID HE WOULD ASPIRE TO WIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2% OF THE HANDLE.

YOU CAN GO BACK TO YOUR 9OO MILLION DOLLAR HANDLE BOOK AND BE ABSOLUTELY SURE HE WOULD ALSO BE THRILLED TO ACCOMPLISH THE SAME.

WHY?

IF HE WROTE THAT TYPE OF CLEARING HOUSE HANDLE HE WOULD HAVE TO HAVE MOVED THE LINE LIKE A HOUSE THAT SIZE MUST.

THE EXPOSURE IN THE LINE CAUSED BY THAT MOVEMENT TO WRITE THAT VOLUME WOULD EAT UP THE 4.54% LIKE DOM DELUISE EATS UP SAUSAGE PIZZA!

REALITY

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RENO,

YOU SAID A 900 MILLION DOLLAR POST UP HANDLE?

NO LIVING WAY!

THAT'S 18 MILLION DOLLARS A WEEK IN POST UP.

SOMEBODY'S YANKING YOUR CHAIN...

REALITY


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RENO,

I KNOW THE BUSINESS YOUR REFERING TO.

IT'S NOT IN COSTA RICA.

I WOULD HARDLY CALL THOSE BIG ASIAN PLAYERS WHO PLAY MOSTLY BASEBALL AS POST UP BUSINESS AS WE KNOW IT.

THEY SCALP THOSE PLAYS BACK IN THE HOMELAND AGAINST A FIXED LINE.

REALITY

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scott
Private
Posts: 17
Registered: Nov 2000
posted 11-17-2000 02:28 PM
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Bookmaking is like making a salad. Take all the green(money),throw it in a bowl and mix it up. It doesn't matter whose name is on what bill. Pay the winners with the losers $$ and if any is left over keep it. It's really quite simple. Just let the players alone, encourage them, don't hassle them and eventually most of the bowl will be yours. Eleven is bigger than ten...Scotty
IP: Logged

REALITY
Officer
Posts: 654
Registered: Jul 2000
posted 11-17-2000 03:17 PM
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WISEGUY CLEARING HOUSES LIKE C.R.I.S.,OLYMPIC,AND GRANDE ARE THRILLED TO WIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2% OF THEIR HANDLE.
BIG POST UP STORES LIKE TO WIN BETWEEN 3 AND 5% OF THE HANDLE.

11/10 IS A LOT BIGGER IN THE POST UP SHOPS, WHERE THE EXPOSURE IN THE LINE DOES NOT EAT UP THE BOTTOM LINE AS IT DOES IN THE BIG CLEARING HOUSES WHO BY VIRTUE OF POSTING THEIR LINES FIRST WRITE MORE VOLUME BUT ALSO HAVE MORE EXPOSURE.

IN THE END THE BIG CLEARING HOUSES HAVE A HOUSE SALAD.

THE BIG POST UP HOUSES HAVE A CAESAR'S SALAD WITH A GRILLED CHICKEN BREAST ON TOP.

REALITY



[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 03-22-2001).]

[sportshobby]

Reality, I think you missed Reno's point somehow. The Vegas books statewide held 4.59%, which is as much as they could expect to win. It was a very good year for those books.

Baseball hold was of course a smaller percentage, but again near the expected amount.

[ajax50]

Reality,you stated that the Taiwanese are betting in their home against a fixed line.Ive heard the line they bet into is chock full of value.Am I correct? Have you heard of anybody actually trying to wager into these lines,if it at all possible.When you say a fixed line,what are you refering to? I know when they wager in the islands they dont care so much about getting the best number,only getting down for what they need.

[REALITY]

SPORTSHOBBY,

I DIDN'T MISS HIS POINT.

RENO'S POINT IS BOOKMAKING'S THE EASIEST GIG IN THE WORLD.

A CAN'T MISS BUSINESS.

HIS FANTASY 900 MILLION DOLLAR BOOK CAN'T WIN 4.5%.

WHY?

TO WRITE THAT VOLUME OF BUSINESS YOU WOULD HAVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF EXPOSURE IN THE LINE THAT WOULD EAT UP THAT 4.5%.

THE THEORETICAL 4.54% IS ABOUT 34 WEEKS OF THE YEAR WHEN 11/10 IS IN FORCE IN BASKETS AND FOOTS.

THE OTHER 18 WEEK IS THE 2.27% IN BASES WHICH IS HIGH.

THAT WOULD MAKE THE YEARLY AVERAGE ABOUT 3.75%.

POST UP SHOPS DO BETTER BECAUSE THEY DON'T GO UP FIRST,THEY TAKE SMALLER LIMITS AND HAVE A MORE RECREATIONAL CLIENTELE.

THEY CAN WIN BETEEN 3-5% ANNUALLY.

SOME OF THE BETTER RUN SHOPS CAN DO A LITTLE BETTER.

THE CLEARING HOUSE BY VIRTUE OF OPENING FIRST,WITH LARGER LIMITS AND A MORE PROFESSIONAL CLIENTELE ASPIRE TO WIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2% OF THEIR HANDLE.

THAT'S THE REALITY OF THE OFF-SHORE BUSINESS...

REALITY

[REALITY]

Originally posted by ajax50:

Reality,you stated that the Taiwanese are betting in their home against a fixed line.Ive heard the line they bet into is chock full of value.Am I correct? Have you heard of anybody actually trying to wager into these lines,if it at all possible.When you say a fixed line,what are you refering to? I know when they wager in the islands they dont care so much about getting the best number,only getting down for what they need.

FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND THEY ARE SCALPING AGAINST A LINE THAT DOSEN'T MOVE.

IT OPENS LATE BUT THEY HAVE VALUE IN IT ANYWAY.

THEY DON'T MAKE THESE PLAYS FOR DECISIONS.

LAST YEAR THIS PACKAGE OF WORK WAS OFFERED TO EVERYBODY.

THE STIPULATION BEING YOU HAD TO TAKE 50,000 A POP AT ONE NUMBER.

THAT JUST DOSEN'T FIT ANYONES BUSINESS TODAY.

WHAT IF YOU TAKE THE 50,000 AND MOVE IT 7 CENTS.

YOUR 2.27% THEORETICAL HOLD GOES OUT THE WINDOW BECAUSE THAT'S BASED ON A 5 CENT MOVE.

A WORSE SCENARIO.

EVEN AFTER THE 7 CENT MOVE EARLY ON WHEN THE LINEUPS COME OUT AND THE POKERS PLAY THEY LIKE THE SAME SIDE.

NOW WHAT?

YOUR NEVER LEVELING THE GAME AND NOW INSTEAD OF WORKING THE GAME YOUR STRUGGLING TO REDUCE THE DECISION,NOW PROBABLY AT A LOSS BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO OVERMOVE TO REDUCE.

IN THIS SCENARIO YOUR OVERBOOKING THE GAME AT A WORSE PRICE THEN WHEN YOU BEGAN.

AND FOR WHAT?

TO ACCOMODATE A BIG ASIAN SCALPER WHO IS BASICALLY RISKING NOTHING AGAINST A GUARANTEED EARN?

THE BIGGEST OF THE BIG IN THE OFFSHORE BUSINESS TURNED THIS PACKAGE OF WORK DOWN WITHOUT GIVING IT A SECOND THOUGHT...

REALITY



[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 03-23-2001).]

[ajax50]

Im sure some turned it down but they were playing into top caliber offshore books and they were betting into juiced up lines,not always 10 cents which would make their action(unbalanced one way) desireable.

[REALITY]

AJAX,

IF IT'S SO DESIRABLE WHY ARE THEY OUT FOR THE PAST TWO WEEKS BEGGING THE MOST FINANCIALLY SOUND SHOPS TO TAKE IT ON WITH VERY FEW TAKERS?

AND IF IT WAS SO GOOD HOW COME IT CONTRIBUTED TO BUSTING OUT WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE SUCH A GREAT BOOK LAST YEAR?

NO NAME NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED.

REALITY

[reno]

Reality, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the busted book you're talking about take it in the shorts because they didn't move their lines enough to get the necessary buy-back?

Also, why wouldn't a book with a 20-cent line--like CRIS or Olympic--love the Asian action?

Regarding the Vegas baseball figures, the 1.85% hold is abnormally low because it includes half the 1999 season, which was the worst baseball season in Vegas history.

[REALITY]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by reno:

[B]Reality, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the busted book you're talking about take it in the shorts because they didn't move their lines enough to get the necessary buy-back?

NO.

I WOULD SAY THEY REALLY DIDN'T HAVE THE B.R.TO ACCEPT A 50 DIME WAGER AND THEY DIDN'T HAVE THE CLIENTELE TO OFFSET THIS KIND OF WORK.

Also, why wouldn't a book with a 20-cent line--like CRIS or Olympic--love the Asian action?

IF THEY BOTH TURNED IT DOWN AND THEY HAVE A 20 CENT LINE DOSEN'T THAT TELL YOU SOMETHING?

Regarding the Vegas baseball figures, the 1.85% hold is abnormally low because it includes half the 1999 season, which was the worst baseball season in Vegas history.

IT ALSO INCLUDED HALF OF THE 2000 SEASON WHICH WAS AMONG THE BEST IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL BOOKING...

YOU DO REMEMBER THE POKERS TOSSED IN THE TOWEL AT THE ALL-STAR BREAK,DONT YOU???

REALITY


[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 03-23-2001).]

[sportshobby]

I think even 2% of $900M sounds pretty good to me.

[sportshobby]

Reality, I think you're going to have to explain why a big sportsbook would turn down $50K a pop into a 20-cent line. I'll bet there was never an offer for that, but rather they were only interested in a dime line.