Who has the "best" line

[brooksie]

(also posted in bookies hell)

For baseball, my local guy uses a dime line and rarely moves his #'s through the day. His side # is always on the tens -130, -140, etc. And, he doesn't shade his totals (no 8ov, or 8un, he'll just give it at 8-flat -110 either way).

It seems there is serious $$ to be made by simply comparing his #'s to a truly accurate line. My question is, what is the absolute best line to compare it to.

I've tried to compare it to the Don Best Island Express and figuring a consensus line there - the problem there is, if the players have pounded a # in a certain direction, you are just a follower of the action - and that's not a consistent winner (even if you're getting a better # than most).

So, who offers the best, truest # that would represent the best benchmark to compare a local # against.

thanks in advance for your opinions.

[Railbird]

Its possible that your guy is the sharpest.

[REALITY]

Originally posted by brooksie:

(also posted in bookies hell)

For baseball, my local guy uses a dime line and rarely moves his #'s through the day. His side # is always on the tens -130, -140, etc. And, he doesn't shade his totals (no 8ov, or 8un, he'll just give it at 8-flat -110 either way).

BROOKSIE,

IF YOUR BOOKMAKER MOVES HIS LINE EXACTLY AS YOU DEPICTED HE IS AN IDIOT AS IS ANYBODY WHO WOULD SAY MAYBE HIS LINE IS THE SHARPEST.

IF THE YANKEES ARE-1.60 AND YOUR B.M.IS HOLDING 10 DIMES BEFORE HE MOVES THE LINE ,HIS NEXT LINE IS YANKEES-1.70 ACCORDING TO YOUR DESCRIPTION.

HE NOW TAKES 10 DIMES BALT.+160AND THE GAME IS NOW LEVELED AND GOES OFF THE BOARD.

BALTIMORE WINS THE GAME.

LETS REVIEW WHAT HAPPENS WITH YOUR B.M.'S ACTION:

HE COLLECTS $16,000 FOR 10 DIMES OF YANKS-1.60.

HE PAYS $16,000 FOR 10 DIMES OF BALT.+1.60.

HIS EARN FOR HIS SPLENDID EFFORTS IS ZERO.

THAT'S RIGHT ZERO.

HE CANT MOVE IN MULTIPLES OF TEN.

HE MUST MOVE AT THE MEDIAN NUMBER OF A NICKLE.

IF HE DID HIS NEXT YANKEE NUMBER WOULD HAVE BEEN YANKS-1.65.

THE PLAYERS ON BALT WOULD HAVE TAKEN +1.55 AND HE WOULD HAVE PAID OUT $15,500 LEAVING A PROFIT OF $500 FOR HIS EFFORTS.

FORGET THE IDEA OF PLAYING A SHARP LINE AGAINST THIS B.M.

IN THE LONG RUN YOU ARE THE FAVORITE TO BEAT HIS MIS-MANAGED LINE BUT YOU ARE A HUGE UNDERDOG TO GET PAID...

REALITY

It seems there is serious $$ to be made by simply comparing his #'s to a truly accurate line. My question is, what is the absolute best line to compare it to.

I've tried to compare it to the Don Best Island Express and figuring a consensus line there - the problem there is, if the players have pounded a # in a certain direction, you are just a follower of the action - and that's not a consistent winner (even if you're getting a better # than most).

So, who offers the best, truest # that would represent the best benchmark to compare a local # against.

thanks in advance for your opinions.

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 05-11-2001).]

[Dragon]

You're on the right track with the consensus line. Just about any of the major books on Island Xpress are sure to have a sharper line than your guy.

[randyrohm]

Because of the reduced vig, Pinnacle would be a great out to compare his #'s to. On days I am lazy or get a late start there is generally still a little action to be had this way.

[jlpblade]

I think Reality is right - playing against this guy is asking for trouble. Q: What's worse than not scalping baseball? A: Scalping against a book that will eventually go broke.

JM2c,
Jeff

[brooksie]

Actually, Reality, I've been with this guy for a long, long time (over ten years) for football and basketball. We've had a great, very professional relationship.

I'm guessing that the majority of his baseball players are not that sharp and aren't looking at his numbers the way I'm trying to. Otherwise he wouldn't be in the baseball business.

I'm guessing his other customers are handicapping the game and betting their opinion at the # he offers. I'm strictly looking for value. Reading your posts, Reality, I'm sure you appreciate that approach.

I know that scalping is an option, but that requires a big amount of up-front $$ at several books to maximize. That's why I'm asking this question.

So, again, tapping into your collective experience, what makes more sense - Island Express consensus, or trying to find one or two books that have the "best #'s". And... which books are those.

And, finally, what number tends to be most accurate - an opening # that reflects the book's opinion, or a late # that could reflect either a sharp or a lousy opinion by the players?

Again, many thanks guys!


[This message has been edited by brooksie (edited 05-12-2001).]

[REALITY]

Originally posted by brooksie:


So, again, tapping into your collective experience, what makes more sense - Island Express consensus, or trying to find one or two books that have the "best #'s". And... which books are those.

I'VE NEVER EVEN LOOKED AT ISLAND EXPRESS.

I DONT KNOW WHAT BOOKS ARE THERE.

ON THE PREMIUM FEED FOR BASEBALL I WOULD AVERAGE GRANDE,DELMAR,JAZZ AND SPORTMARKET AND PLAY AGAINST THAT AVERAGE.

IF YOU ONLY WANT TO USE TWO USE GRANDE AND DELMAR.

IF YOU ONLY WANT TO USE ONE USE DELMAR,THIS LINE BEST REFLECTS THE "SIDE" ON THE GAME...


And, finally, what number tends to be most accurate - an opening # that reflects the book's opinion, or a late # that could reflect either a sharp or a lousy opinion by the players?

THE CLOSING LINE IS THE STRONGEST LINE.

IT HAS BEEN HAMMERED OUT BY SMART MONEY.

THE LARGE PLAYS TEND TO GENERALLY HAVE LESS BUYBACK ACTION BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE PLAY.

Again, many thanks guys!

ONCE AGAIN I ADVISE YOU TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL IN THIS SITUATION.

YOU MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE COLLECTING FROM YOUR "LOCAL" AND PAYING YOUR OTHER OUTS.

IF HE GETS BEAT BAD ENOUGH AND CRIES "UNCLE" YOU ARE GOING TO BE THE ONE LEFT WITHOUT A CHAIR WHEN THE MUSIC STOPS...

REALITY


[This message has been edited by brooksie (edited 05-12-2001).]

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 05-12-2001).]

[Jeff]

For Island Xpress, baseball with a 10 cent line, use sportsmarket and caribi. If you had to use one, I'd go with Sports Market.

For hoops I'd add CRIS and Margarita......

[Frank]

I would definately use Sports Market on IX if if I was only using 1 book. On the Premium I would generally use a consensus of Sports Market, Grande, Delmar. Jazz does not use a true dime line so I would not use them on games over 150. Belize will always give you great scalping opportunities on totals.

For hoops I would use a consensus of CRIS, Olympic, and Jazz, if I had to pick three.

[brooksie]

Great advise, guys. And much appreciated - I'll let you know how it goes. Since looking for value seems to be one of the most underrated parts of the game for most players, I'm very hopeful the "true" #'s at the places you recommended will help me spot that.

Again, many thanks!

[brooksie]

Not to belabor the thread - but it strikes me that I should have asked "why?". Jeff and Frank, you both cited Sports Market - what has led you to the conclusion that their # is better than most others?

Why CRIS and Margarita for hoops?

And, by the way, I did use a consensus of Sports Market and Caribi on Saturday. I made plays if the my local guy's # was more than a nickel off the consensus line for sides, and more than a dime off for totals - it produced lots of action and a terrific winning day. I would expect that, long term, it will lead to a less spectacular, but solid grind win if the #'s hold up.

[This message has been edited by brooksie (edited 05-13-2001).]

[Frank]

If I had to make a conference of powerhouse books, the big 8 would include:
CRIS
Olympic
Jazz
Delmar
WWTS
Rio Island
Sports Market
Grande

These are IMO the books that see most of the wiseguy action. The wiseguys produce better numbers than most BM's. Therefore these numbers are usually solidified with wiseguy action. The reason I said Sports Market is because they are the only one on IX out of these 8 that use a true dime line.

WIT, Cascade, NAB, and Sportbet would be possible up and comers IMO.

[REALITY]

BROOKSIE,

MY ADVICE WAS FOR BASEBALL ONLY.

I DIDN'T USE OLYMPIC OR C.R.I.S. BECAUSE THEY DONT DEAL A DIME LINE.

YOU CAN LOOK AT THEM FOR BASEBALL TOTALS.

REALITY

[This message has been edited by REALITY (edited 05-13-2001).]

[REALITY]

BROOKSIE,

SHARPEST BASKET AND FOOTBALL LINE:

C.R.I.S.

OLYMPIC

GRANDE

ALL STONE COLD BOOKMAKERS.

DELMAR

BEST SOURCE TO DETERMINE THE "SIDE".

REALITY