Value - old topic, new question

[brooksie]

A few months ago I posted about the wonderful opportunities available to those of us who still use local books - but use the offshores as a great consensus line service. I'm using Don Best premium Island Express.

We simply look for value - in baseball (which has worked great for me this year), I've looked for more than a nickle difference from the offshore consensus versus my guy's dime line.

I'd love to gather your thoughts (or research, if you have it) on how much difference is needed for a play in football.

The books will let you buy a half point for 10 cents, so that's not enough to overcome the vig. Is a full point difference enough (obviously, the lower the # the more important a point is). But at what point is a full point no longer enough variance? (Example at -10, -14, etc. at what point do you need 1 1/2 pt variance)

Same question with totals. If the local guy is a full point off from the consensus, is that a play?

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

[<omni>]

Be sure to remember that in football some numbers are more live than others. You can't really use a blanket rule like "I'll go with every play where the difference is 2 points or more" or something like that. It's a bit more complex. I would say first learn which numbers hold the best value, then make your play based on that. Also remember that the bigger the spread, the larger a difference you should look for before you consider it a play. There are lots of books and articles that cover this very topic.
I'm curious to know if you've had much success with this program so far, and how long you've been doing this. Do you just make every play where you see value?

[DOUG]

BROKSKI, WHAT IF THE VALUE IS IN THE OFF-SHORE LINE AND YOU ONLY PLAY WITH LOCAL BOOKIES?

I USE TO HAVE A BOOK WHO USED USA LINE FOR COLLEGE BUCKETS. I MADE A LOT OF MONEY OFF HIM TILL HE WENT BELLY-UP!

[egg nog]

sometimes a half point will do it. all your offshores have 2 or 2 1/2 and your local has 3, nail it.

[Dragon]

Small fortunes have been made betting soft lines. Harder and harder to come by these days. But handicapping? Who needs it?