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The Rules: Kevin O’Neill’s Ten Immutable Laws for Sports Betting Success….Part One
Successful salespeople do well because they no how to isolate opportunity and direct a sales process. Students succeed because they pay attention in class and have effective study skills. Successful managers stay on top of their industry, understand organizational behavior, and know how to motivate employees. Almost any profession or activity has an established path to success that can be modified to an individual’s ability and interests.
Sports betting is no different than any other pursuit. There are established principles, beliefs, behaviors, and concepts that are common among people who succeed in the activity. People who win money consistently betting on sports share many common traits. The purpose of this article is to isolate those traits so recreational sports bettors can model winners in an effort to improve their game and turn themselves into winners.
Rule 1: Work Hard.
Jesse Tuggle was an undrafted, unheralded free agent out of Valdosta State who signed with the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan Leaf was an all-world multi-million dollar quarterback who inspired San Diego to virtually mortgage their future to move up in the draft and get him. So why did Tuggle enjoy a sterling 14-year career while Leaf is out of football a mere three years after the Chargers handed him the keys to their franchise? The most obvious answer is that Tuggle worked like a fiend to maximize his talent while Leaf was too busy living the high life to make the effort to take advantage of his bountiful natural gifts.
There is nothing wrong with someone just having fun betting on sports, using football as an excuse to stay in touch with buddies during the week while seeing them at the sports bar on the weekend. Many people bet on sports knowing they’ll probably lose, but enjoying it nevertheless. Handled responsibly, sports betting is a pleasant pastime that increases the enjoyment of watching ball games. Occasional winnings can be a thrill, while losses that are budgeted for are a manageable entertainment expense.
Modest recreational losses are fine, but if you’re intrigued by the challenge of becoming a winner and would like to enjoy the rewards of winning, there is work involved. Effort and time are required to learn the activity, understand the sports you play, and bet properly. Working to become successful involves taking at least a few of the following concepts to heart and committing the time and effort to become a winner.
Rule 2: Wagering skills are as important as handicapping skills.
Sports betting is not about sports. It is about money. Sports are simply the vehicle that transfers wealth from the winners to the losers. There are stock traders that succeed using technical market analysis despite their lack of knowledge of the companies they invest in. Similarly, there are sports bettors who earn a living by exploiting their wagering skills. They understand value. They bet overnight lines, take advantage of sports book specials and bonuses, and bet on obscure sports. They bet a matchup in a Formula One race involving two drivers they’ve never heard of because they catch a sports book that has been slow to move a line, and the neglected line offers value compared to what everyone else is doing.
Like arbitrageurs who earn a living on slight differentials in price in securities and commodities markets, scalpers and middlers earn a living by betting both sides of a sporting event. They’ll bet a football game over 40½ and under 43 with different sports books. They’ll take advantage of price differentials in a baseball game and will be happy to make 2% on their three-hour investment if the underdog wins, while breaking even if the favorite comes in. They know nothing about sports; they simply know numbers and value. You have a job, a family, and responsibilities. You can’t match them, but you can model them in a limited fashion. Always refuse to take a bad price when something better is available. Respect the edge that these guys exert on a daily basis.
Rule 3: Bet with Multiple Sports Books
Middlers and scalpers earn a living on price differentials. You can do very well with “book differentials” in selecting a sports book. Some sports books offer significant bonuses. Some offer juice specials on Tuesdays or Fridays. Some offer free half-points at specific times. Others offer better teaser and parlay odds than others. Some local books inflate prices or are slow to move numbers on game days. While you may not be able to play at 15 or 20 books like a professional gambler does, you may be able to have the following in your repertoire…
Book one: An offshore outfit that offered you a 15% bonus, offers free ½ points on Fridays, and offers many proposition wagers. They have outstanding teaser odds.
Book two: Another offshore book that doesn’t offer a bonus but caters to sharp players. As a result, their lines are fluid, even on propositions. They offer reduced juice on Fridays for weekend football.
Book three: This local bookie often inflates the lines on local teams and favorites in TV games.
Book four: This neighborhood old-timer is not technically savvy, gets his lines from a telephone line service, and only receives two updates per day. While lines move elsewhere, his stay the same.
Checking lines at these four sports books doesn’t take up too much of your time, as you can access lines of offshore outfits on the Internet. These four books provide you with many options and different prices. While not truly playing like a professional, you have given yourself a very good chance to be on the right side of the line on most of your wagers using bonuses, vig specials, free half-points, and inflated prices. Simply using four books with different qualities, you have many options at your disposal to increase your chances to win.
Rule 4: Know your strengths, and focus on them
Are you a wizard with steaks on the grill but couldn’t bake a cake if your life depended on it? Similarly, specialization is a key in sports betting. You may be a terrible NFL handicapper but have a solid opinion on college hoops. Does college football flummox you but you have a great feel for baseball? You’re not alone. Very few people can truly have a strong opinion on more than a couple of sports. Those who bet every day year round are probably the scalpers, middlers, and numbers-getters we spoke of earlier in this piece. Public handicappers who claim to dominate all sports are trying to drive calls to their 800/900 numbers. In the real world, we all have our specialties. Focus the most on the sports that you have a most valid opinion on.
Rule 5: Learn the art of handicapping.
Most sports bettors have “they’regonnakillumitis”, afflicting casual sports bettors who overreact to the last performance they saw. The Bengals looked awful last week and the Broncos looked great? Guess who everyone is going to bet? After all, they’regonnakillum.
Winning bettors who do their own handicapping do not look at things so simply. They look deeper into games to determine the true strengths of teams, studying box scores and personnel. They focus on the personalities of coaches, studying what coaches do well motivating their teams in what roles. They study past history and current strengths. They see how a team historically does on this surface and in this price range. They study how a club has done defensively against this style of offense and how they’ve done offensively against this style of defense. They study a game from many different angles, looking for an edge in the line.
As in the study of any pursuit, the shortcut to success is learning of the success and failures of others. Reading this publication each week will expose you to many different ideas, theories, techniques, and strategies. Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas is a fine source of handicapping literature and their catalogue contains a wide array of sports handicapping instructional titles.
Check back next week for part 2 of “The Rules”…..
Kevin O’Neill’s Free Hotline: Football’s best free information is just a phone call away on Kevin’s hotline. Key selections on that line are available Saturday and Sunday and are now 6-2 for the season. Call 1-770-618-8700 for free selections, informational updates, offshore alerts, and key information unique to this hotline. Loyal callers consider it to be the equivalent of a daily sports handicapping and betting seminar. There is no 900 number advertising, no telemarketing, no caller ID, and no BS. Make the free call to 1-770-618-8700 for the best in football handicapping and betting information.
Successful salespeople do well because they no how to isolate opportunity and direct a sales process. Students succeed because they pay attention in class and have effective study skills. Successful managers stay on top of their industry, understand organizational behavior, and know how to motivate employees. Almost any profession or activity has an established path to success that can be modified to an individual’s ability and interests.
Sports betting is no different than any other pursuit. There are established principles, beliefs, behaviors, and concepts that are common among people who succeed in the activity. People who win money consistently betting on sports share many common traits. The purpose of this article is to isolate those traits so recreational sports bettors can model winners in an effort to improve their game and turn themselves into winners.
Rule 1: Work Hard.
Jesse Tuggle was an undrafted, unheralded free agent out of Valdosta State who signed with the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan Leaf was an all-world multi-million dollar quarterback who inspired San Diego to virtually mortgage their future to move up in the draft and get him. So why did Tuggle enjoy a sterling 14-year career while Leaf is out of football a mere three years after the Chargers handed him the keys to their franchise? The most obvious answer is that Tuggle worked like a fiend to maximize his talent while Leaf was too busy living the high life to make the effort to take advantage of his bountiful natural gifts.
There is nothing wrong with someone just having fun betting on sports, using football as an excuse to stay in touch with buddies during the week while seeing them at the sports bar on the weekend. Many people bet on sports knowing they’ll probably lose, but enjoying it nevertheless. Handled responsibly, sports betting is a pleasant pastime that increases the enjoyment of watching ball games. Occasional winnings can be a thrill, while losses that are budgeted for are a manageable entertainment expense.
Modest recreational losses are fine, but if you’re intrigued by the challenge of becoming a winner and would like to enjoy the rewards of winning, there is work involved. Effort and time are required to learn the activity, understand the sports you play, and bet properly. Working to become successful involves taking at least a few of the following concepts to heart and committing the time and effort to become a winner.
Rule 2: Wagering skills are as important as handicapping skills.
Sports betting is not about sports. It is about money. Sports are simply the vehicle that transfers wealth from the winners to the losers. There are stock traders that succeed using technical market analysis despite their lack of knowledge of the companies they invest in. Similarly, there are sports bettors who earn a living by exploiting their wagering skills. They understand value. They bet overnight lines, take advantage of sports book specials and bonuses, and bet on obscure sports. They bet a matchup in a Formula One race involving two drivers they’ve never heard of because they catch a sports book that has been slow to move a line, and the neglected line offers value compared to what everyone else is doing.
Like arbitrageurs who earn a living on slight differentials in price in securities and commodities markets, scalpers and middlers earn a living by betting both sides of a sporting event. They’ll bet a football game over 40½ and under 43 with different sports books. They’ll take advantage of price differentials in a baseball game and will be happy to make 2% on their three-hour investment if the underdog wins, while breaking even if the favorite comes in. They know nothing about sports; they simply know numbers and value. You have a job, a family, and responsibilities. You can’t match them, but you can model them in a limited fashion. Always refuse to take a bad price when something better is available. Respect the edge that these guys exert on a daily basis.
Rule 3: Bet with Multiple Sports Books
Middlers and scalpers earn a living on price differentials. You can do very well with “book differentials” in selecting a sports book. Some sports books offer significant bonuses. Some offer juice specials on Tuesdays or Fridays. Some offer free half-points at specific times. Others offer better teaser and parlay odds than others. Some local books inflate prices or are slow to move numbers on game days. While you may not be able to play at 15 or 20 books like a professional gambler does, you may be able to have the following in your repertoire…
Book one: An offshore outfit that offered you a 15% bonus, offers free ½ points on Fridays, and offers many proposition wagers. They have outstanding teaser odds.
Book two: Another offshore book that doesn’t offer a bonus but caters to sharp players. As a result, their lines are fluid, even on propositions. They offer reduced juice on Fridays for weekend football.
Book three: This local bookie often inflates the lines on local teams and favorites in TV games.
Book four: This neighborhood old-timer is not technically savvy, gets his lines from a telephone line service, and only receives two updates per day. While lines move elsewhere, his stay the same.
Checking lines at these four sports books doesn’t take up too much of your time, as you can access lines of offshore outfits on the Internet. These four books provide you with many options and different prices. While not truly playing like a professional, you have given yourself a very good chance to be on the right side of the line on most of your wagers using bonuses, vig specials, free half-points, and inflated prices. Simply using four books with different qualities, you have many options at your disposal to increase your chances to win.
Rule 4: Know your strengths, and focus on them
Are you a wizard with steaks on the grill but couldn’t bake a cake if your life depended on it? Similarly, specialization is a key in sports betting. You may be a terrible NFL handicapper but have a solid opinion on college hoops. Does college football flummox you but you have a great feel for baseball? You’re not alone. Very few people can truly have a strong opinion on more than a couple of sports. Those who bet every day year round are probably the scalpers, middlers, and numbers-getters we spoke of earlier in this piece. Public handicappers who claim to dominate all sports are trying to drive calls to their 800/900 numbers. In the real world, we all have our specialties. Focus the most on the sports that you have a most valid opinion on.
Rule 5: Learn the art of handicapping.
Most sports bettors have “they’regonnakillumitis”, afflicting casual sports bettors who overreact to the last performance they saw. The Bengals looked awful last week and the Broncos looked great? Guess who everyone is going to bet? After all, they’regonnakillum.
Winning bettors who do their own handicapping do not look at things so simply. They look deeper into games to determine the true strengths of teams, studying box scores and personnel. They focus on the personalities of coaches, studying what coaches do well motivating their teams in what roles. They study past history and current strengths. They see how a team historically does on this surface and in this price range. They study how a club has done defensively against this style of offense and how they’ve done offensively against this style of defense. They study a game from many different angles, looking for an edge in the line.
As in the study of any pursuit, the shortcut to success is learning of the success and failures of others. Reading this publication each week will expose you to many different ideas, theories, techniques, and strategies. Gambler’s Book Club in Las Vegas is a fine source of handicapping literature and their catalogue contains a wide array of sports handicapping instructional titles.
Check back next week for part 2 of “The Rules”…..
Kevin O’Neill’s Free Hotline: Football’s best free information is just a phone call away on Kevin’s hotline. Key selections on that line are available Saturday and Sunday and are now 6-2 for the season. Call 1-770-618-8700 for free selections, informational updates, offshore alerts, and key information unique to this hotline. Loyal callers consider it to be the equivalent of a daily sports handicapping and betting seminar. There is no 900 number advertising, no telemarketing, no caller ID, and no BS. Make the free call to 1-770-618-8700 for the best in football handicapping and betting information.