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Sopranos prop from WWTS:
WWTS is offering odds on the first to die during the new season of "The Sopranos" TV series.
These selections are based on some input from other hardcore fans, viewing of bootlegs of Episodes #1 through #4 of the new season, and a few other sources. Also, wagering value was taken into account. With that disclaimer, away we go....
None of the "named" characters get killed in episodes #1 through #4. There are 3 deaths--a stripper, a cop who supposedly killed Christopher's father (played by Meat Loaf), and most significantly perhaps, Bobby Bacala's wife (in a car accident). There are some significant plot developments that set up likely candidates for an untimely death later in the season.
I'm assuming that since no one will die in episode #1 that WWTS will keep the prop up until someone does (or it becomes public knowledge). If this is the case, I've got a pretty good source of bootlegs and I should be able to stay ahead of the curve in terms of plot development. I'll start with the wagers that aren't worth putting money on and why:
--No one +200: Apparently, a major character gets killed in the season finale. We'll discuss that shortly, but David Chase (the director/producer of the show) has reportedly filmed two endings with a different character dying in each. I'm thinking that a major character will die before the end of the season, but clearly based on this information the "no one" bet isn't worth the effort.
--Tony +1000: Killing off the main character, who ties all of the other storylines together would certainly be shocking and unexpected but it ain't going to happen. James Gandolfini, who plays Tony, has said that he's planning to leave when Chase does. Chase has said he's going to do five seasons, which means that Tony ain't going anywhere soon. Anyway, even if you think that there's a chance that they'd kill off the main character there's no value at a mere 10/1 payback.
--Janice +600: Janice is Tony's sister, and even though they don't have a great relationship you can't whack your sister just because she's a pain in the ass. Has a thing for dating mobsters, which isn't always good for your health but her status as Tony's sister makes her untouchable for now. Note that the wording of the prop is such that a character doesn't have to get whacked or otherwise murdered, but my guess is that Janice will be around for the rest of the season. The same can't be said for her boyfriends (more about that in a moment) since she shot her last boyfriend. She tells Tony that her romantic relationships with his business associates are none of his business. To this, he delivered one of the best lines in the history of the series: "It kind of feels like my business, considering I had to haul your last boyfriend out of your kitchen in a Hefty bag." Tony may be hauling another boyfriend out in a Hefty bag before the end of season #4.
--Furio +200: Furio may not make it out of the season alive (and I've heard that he doesn't) but based on episodes #1 through #4 he's going to be too heavily involved in the plot to kill off until much later in the season. A lot of the plotlines for season #4 will center around the marital problems of Tony and Carmela, and her crush on Furio will be part of that.
--Uncle Junior +160: Uncle Junior could very well die before the end of the season--he's facing a racketeering trial and stomach cancer. Still, not much of a value and I'm thinking that he lives through the season.
Now, we'll move on to the four characters on the WWTS prop that I have some wagering interest in:
Ralphie -110: The favorite and with good reason--he's pissed off a lot of people. Tony slugged him late last season (something that "made men" just don't do to one another) and now they've got issues. To add to the tension, he's now dating Tony's sister (see "Janice" above). Johnny Sack also wants Ralphie dead. Paulie Walnuts (in jail in Ohio) may also want him dead. But despite the fact that everyone wants to kill him, I've got a hunch that he'll not be the first character to go. His position as a "made man" means that you just can't go and whack him without repercussions, and unless he does something to screw over Tony's sister that probably works to his favor as well. Still, he's might be worth at least a hedge position since one of the two filmed endings to the season has his death (personally, I think that this is just a decoy for the "other" ending which we'll talk about shortly). My guess is he makes it through the season, and he's definitely not a value at this price.
Chris +400
Adriana +800
Chris is Carmella's cousin, and has a lot working against him. He's a drug addict, and the early episodes indicate that his addiction will get worse. He's also the character that dies in the "other" episode conclusion reportedly filmed. Adriana is his fiancee, and her best friend (Danielle) is an FBI informant. She begins to have suspicions about her early in the season, but if she gets too close to Tony and his associates she could take the dirt nap herself. Both are good values, but based on the assumption that Chris dies in one of the two season finales filmed, it means that he makes it until the end of the year. Adriana's death could be part of a theme--that women who get involved with mobsters meet untimely deaths. Two of the 3 characters killed in episodes 1 through 4 are women, and another (Tony's former mistress Gloria) will reportedly die before the end of the year. At +800 she's worth a shot, though I think both will outlive my top choice....
Paulie "Walnuts" +300--
Paulie "Walnuts" was formerly one of Tony's closest associates, but they're now on the outs. He's starting to feel "passed over" in favor of Chris and Ralphie, and may be plotting to betray Tony. He's in jail in Ohio on a weapons charge (more about that in a moment) and is making long distance calls to Johnny Sack--perhaps in an effort to undermine Tony. There's also some speculation that he's going to sing to the Feds (despite the fact that Tony's former associate Sal "Big Pussy" Bonpensiero met his demise after doing the same thing).
The most compelling arguments that Paulie "Walnuts" is going to be the first to go are found offscreen, however. First, there's the promotional poster released by HBO for the upcoming season. It's a cast photo taken by noted photographer Annie Leibovitz, and much has been made of the fact that Paulie is the only character in a white suit and that he appears to be set apart from the rest of the cast. Now I'll admit that this sounds a little bit like the "Paul is Dead" rumors involving the Beatles "Abbey Road" and "Sgt. Peppers" albums, but could mean something since mobsters do very seldom wear white suits. If you want to see the picture in question, its on the front page of the HBO website:
www.hbo.com
However, here's what I think might be the most salient "off-screen" fact: Tony Sirico, the actor that plays Paulie, underwent surgery to remove a spinal tumor during the show's hiatus. That's the reason the show's producers had to scramble to find a way to keep him offscreen during the early part of season #4. Sirico is supposed to make a full recovery, but will very likely have to curtail his acting schedule for awhile. Now they could certainly explain his limited role by keeping him in jail for awhile, but since the major plotlines for the rest of this season seem to only peripherally involve him his character might be more useful to the development of the storyline dead than alive. If his appearance was limited to cameos he could still "work" on the show and appear in flashbacks, dream sequences and whatnot. For example, the late "Big Pussy" has appeared in Tony's mirror on a couple of occasions.
And the "mirror" business may have been eluded to in an interview with the show's creator--consider this cryptic comment about Sirico made by David Chase in a "Today" show interview:
"Sirico loves to look in mirrors and thinks it's the greatest thing to see...his own face."
A non-sequitur, perhaps, but given the appearance of "Big Pussy" in the mirror I think otherwise....
WAGERING STRATEGIES:
Here's my suggestion for how to wager this--it depends on whether you want to take a shot on one character or take positions on several. If you wanted to bet one character, I would suggest:
PAULIE +300 (obviously you'd profit 3 units for every 1 unit bet)
To take positions on several, I'd do it as follows:
for a position on two characters I'd go with:
PAULIE +300
CHRIS +400
with a bigger position on Paulie than Chris. For example, 70% of your wager on Paulie and 30% on Chris would yield a huge profit if Paulie dies first, and a smaller profit should Chris die first. To bet three characters I would add:
ADRIANA +800
with a proportionately smaller amount. I'd only include:
RALPHIE -110
as a hedge or not at all.
If WWTS keeps this prop up after the first episode (since it is 99% certain that no one on their list dies in it) I'll update as needed.
JRM
THE PROPHET
WWTS is offering odds on the first to die during the new season of "The Sopranos" TV series.
These selections are based on some input from other hardcore fans, viewing of bootlegs of Episodes #1 through #4 of the new season, and a few other sources. Also, wagering value was taken into account. With that disclaimer, away we go....
None of the "named" characters get killed in episodes #1 through #4. There are 3 deaths--a stripper, a cop who supposedly killed Christopher's father (played by Meat Loaf), and most significantly perhaps, Bobby Bacala's wife (in a car accident). There are some significant plot developments that set up likely candidates for an untimely death later in the season.
I'm assuming that since no one will die in episode #1 that WWTS will keep the prop up until someone does (or it becomes public knowledge). If this is the case, I've got a pretty good source of bootlegs and I should be able to stay ahead of the curve in terms of plot development. I'll start with the wagers that aren't worth putting money on and why:
--No one +200: Apparently, a major character gets killed in the season finale. We'll discuss that shortly, but David Chase (the director/producer of the show) has reportedly filmed two endings with a different character dying in each. I'm thinking that a major character will die before the end of the season, but clearly based on this information the "no one" bet isn't worth the effort.
--Tony +1000: Killing off the main character, who ties all of the other storylines together would certainly be shocking and unexpected but it ain't going to happen. James Gandolfini, who plays Tony, has said that he's planning to leave when Chase does. Chase has said he's going to do five seasons, which means that Tony ain't going anywhere soon. Anyway, even if you think that there's a chance that they'd kill off the main character there's no value at a mere 10/1 payback.
--Janice +600: Janice is Tony's sister, and even though they don't have a great relationship you can't whack your sister just because she's a pain in the ass. Has a thing for dating mobsters, which isn't always good for your health but her status as Tony's sister makes her untouchable for now. Note that the wording of the prop is such that a character doesn't have to get whacked or otherwise murdered, but my guess is that Janice will be around for the rest of the season. The same can't be said for her boyfriends (more about that in a moment) since she shot her last boyfriend. She tells Tony that her romantic relationships with his business associates are none of his business. To this, he delivered one of the best lines in the history of the series: "It kind of feels like my business, considering I had to haul your last boyfriend out of your kitchen in a Hefty bag." Tony may be hauling another boyfriend out in a Hefty bag before the end of season #4.
--Furio +200: Furio may not make it out of the season alive (and I've heard that he doesn't) but based on episodes #1 through #4 he's going to be too heavily involved in the plot to kill off until much later in the season. A lot of the plotlines for season #4 will center around the marital problems of Tony and Carmela, and her crush on Furio will be part of that.
--Uncle Junior +160: Uncle Junior could very well die before the end of the season--he's facing a racketeering trial and stomach cancer. Still, not much of a value and I'm thinking that he lives through the season.
Now, we'll move on to the four characters on the WWTS prop that I have some wagering interest in:
Ralphie -110: The favorite and with good reason--he's pissed off a lot of people. Tony slugged him late last season (something that "made men" just don't do to one another) and now they've got issues. To add to the tension, he's now dating Tony's sister (see "Janice" above). Johnny Sack also wants Ralphie dead. Paulie Walnuts (in jail in Ohio) may also want him dead. But despite the fact that everyone wants to kill him, I've got a hunch that he'll not be the first character to go. His position as a "made man" means that you just can't go and whack him without repercussions, and unless he does something to screw over Tony's sister that probably works to his favor as well. Still, he's might be worth at least a hedge position since one of the two filmed endings to the season has his death (personally, I think that this is just a decoy for the "other" ending which we'll talk about shortly). My guess is he makes it through the season, and he's definitely not a value at this price.
Chris +400
Adriana +800
Chris is Carmella's cousin, and has a lot working against him. He's a drug addict, and the early episodes indicate that his addiction will get worse. He's also the character that dies in the "other" episode conclusion reportedly filmed. Adriana is his fiancee, and her best friend (Danielle) is an FBI informant. She begins to have suspicions about her early in the season, but if she gets too close to Tony and his associates she could take the dirt nap herself. Both are good values, but based on the assumption that Chris dies in one of the two season finales filmed, it means that he makes it until the end of the year. Adriana's death could be part of a theme--that women who get involved with mobsters meet untimely deaths. Two of the 3 characters killed in episodes 1 through 4 are women, and another (Tony's former mistress Gloria) will reportedly die before the end of the year. At +800 she's worth a shot, though I think both will outlive my top choice....
Paulie "Walnuts" +300--
Paulie "Walnuts" was formerly one of Tony's closest associates, but they're now on the outs. He's starting to feel "passed over" in favor of Chris and Ralphie, and may be plotting to betray Tony. He's in jail in Ohio on a weapons charge (more about that in a moment) and is making long distance calls to Johnny Sack--perhaps in an effort to undermine Tony. There's also some speculation that he's going to sing to the Feds (despite the fact that Tony's former associate Sal "Big Pussy" Bonpensiero met his demise after doing the same thing).
The most compelling arguments that Paulie "Walnuts" is going to be the first to go are found offscreen, however. First, there's the promotional poster released by HBO for the upcoming season. It's a cast photo taken by noted photographer Annie Leibovitz, and much has been made of the fact that Paulie is the only character in a white suit and that he appears to be set apart from the rest of the cast. Now I'll admit that this sounds a little bit like the "Paul is Dead" rumors involving the Beatles "Abbey Road" and "Sgt. Peppers" albums, but could mean something since mobsters do very seldom wear white suits. If you want to see the picture in question, its on the front page of the HBO website:
www.hbo.com
However, here's what I think might be the most salient "off-screen" fact: Tony Sirico, the actor that plays Paulie, underwent surgery to remove a spinal tumor during the show's hiatus. That's the reason the show's producers had to scramble to find a way to keep him offscreen during the early part of season #4. Sirico is supposed to make a full recovery, but will very likely have to curtail his acting schedule for awhile. Now they could certainly explain his limited role by keeping him in jail for awhile, but since the major plotlines for the rest of this season seem to only peripherally involve him his character might be more useful to the development of the storyline dead than alive. If his appearance was limited to cameos he could still "work" on the show and appear in flashbacks, dream sequences and whatnot. For example, the late "Big Pussy" has appeared in Tony's mirror on a couple of occasions.
And the "mirror" business may have been eluded to in an interview with the show's creator--consider this cryptic comment about Sirico made by David Chase in a "Today" show interview:
"Sirico loves to look in mirrors and thinks it's the greatest thing to see...his own face."
A non-sequitur, perhaps, but given the appearance of "Big Pussy" in the mirror I think otherwise....
WAGERING STRATEGIES:
Here's my suggestion for how to wager this--it depends on whether you want to take a shot on one character or take positions on several. If you wanted to bet one character, I would suggest:
PAULIE +300 (obviously you'd profit 3 units for every 1 unit bet)
To take positions on several, I'd do it as follows:
for a position on two characters I'd go with:
PAULIE +300
CHRIS +400
with a bigger position on Paulie than Chris. For example, 70% of your wager on Paulie and 30% on Chris would yield a huge profit if Paulie dies first, and a smaller profit should Chris die first. To bet three characters I would add:
ADRIANA +800
with a proportionately smaller amount. I'd only include:
RALPHIE -110
as a hedge or not at all.
If WWTS keeps this prop up after the first episode (since it is 99% certain that no one on their list dies in it) I'll update as needed.
JRM
THE PROPHET
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