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The two overwhelming selections last week were Miami to pound the Jags and Baltimore over Arizona. Personally, I laid off of those on value concerns – although more and more value is meaning less and less. Both won, so I guess the bookies had a lousy day. Also seemed that everyone and his mom knew the Jets would beat Buffalo. Was it Moulds being out that tipped everyone off? Again, one of the few home dogs that have done anything exceptional this year. While home dogs continue to get crushed, overmatched home favorites have been a strong segment in 2003.
I wouldn’t quite put myself into the litter box after last week, but picture a cat hanging from a window sill by his fingernails and that’s about where I’m at right now. In particular, I was burned on those home favorites that gave up big leads on Sunday. Afterwards, I noticed that all of these home teams had yet to enjoy their byes, whilest the road teams that slaughtered them in the 4th quarter across the board were freshly rested teams with big guns in the passing game. Hmmm! Funny how when a trend emerges, it often goes 5-0 and not 3-2. Never much room for dumb luck in the NFL. Anyway, I discussed how more physical and rested teams would find the upper-hand this month and indeed that has come to pass.
I noticed this trend prior to the applicable Falcons/Rams game but didn’t really know how it would apply to an 11 point dog. Of course, they were also slaughtered in the 2nd half after hanging in by their toenails in the 1st half despite an abysmal effort. I really thought the Falcons had some semblance of momentum coming into that game, having played a bit heartier the previous week. Perhaps bad teams really don’t go through upticks? They just play a good game here and there and expecting them to sustain it from game-to-game might be foolhardy. I still feel that the scheduling has been a tremendous boost to Bulger, ala Warner in 1998. Of course, Warner repeated his efforts against stiffer competition in subsequent years, something I doubt Bulger will do. MNF did a good job of showcasing Bulger’s quick release. Warner’s prime asset used to be his quick and accurate decision making and that slid gradually with his decline. Bulger has brought that asset to the table, and his quick release frustrates pass rushes and makes it difficult to intercept the ball when combined with accuracy. Bulger was only knocked down twice on Monday, pathetic!
Lets talk about the hot QBs for a moment. First, all the buzz about McNair! I don’t mind him getting his due, but after torching HOUSTON? C’mon yards vs. Houston, Arizona...that only counts on Fantasy Football and even then it should get some kind of a curve. Still, I always like to fade teams that are running up the line against the likes of Houston. If you get no pressure on a guy like McNair, what do you really think is going to happen? Meanwhile, Ramsey is getting pounded and frequently its been his fault (holding the ball forever on a 3-step drop) but Washington truly has a find here. Ramsey has a long way to go in the mental game but he’ll be a force to recon with sooner or later. Finally, the desirous media continues to overhype the Jacksonville product. I haven’t seen him play but the word is that he is going to be real, real good.
Seattle screwed up another cover this week, nearly blowing a wrapped-up-with-a-bow game to SF on a bunch of nitpicky penalties in the 2nd half. What the layman remembers, though, is Terrell Owens dropping a lot of balls of his chest like he was the male athlete version of Dolly Parton. I’ve heard the various theories about this and I take exception to all of them. The problem was simple: he gave up on the game. Once again, he saw his team being crushed on the scoreboard and having little faith in his team, he packed it in. Ironically, that wasn’t enough to doom the 49ers from a comeback – although it might have cost them the “W”. Still, in many ways, the 49ers have not been the soft mark I took them to be.
Patriots continue to get it done somehow and the Giants self-destructed. But be careful – it was a rainy sloppy mess and the Giants will take an excessive power rating hit for that performance. Dallas continues to win but they really aren’t that good. I think their schedule turns sour soon and they may struggle to the 8-8 mark when it is all said and done. Can it be true? The Broncos are WORSE without Jake Plummer?
One of the big surprises to me over the last couple years is that a number of teams are proving they DON’T need balance. Do the Ravens need a passing game to run the ball? Do the Chiefs need to throw to their wideouts to score 40 points? Can Marvin Harrison beat single and double coverage down by 21 points? Can the Panthers dominate the NFL with old school football? Based on these trends, I’d say isolate a teams strength, see how it matches the defenses weakness, and assume they can’t cover it. Because you know what? Right now in the NFL, it simply seems like they can’t.
The other thing I’ve noticed is the way teams have survived terrible situations at the safety position. Week after week, we’ve seen depleted secondaries take the field and it just doesn’t seem to be opening the deep play as frequently as you might expect.
BATTER UP!
MNF: KC vs Oakland
Duante Hall is worth the 4 points alone. The idea of Holmes showcasing his stuff on MNF is also appealing. Green actually completed passed to Gonzalez AND his wideout this week! Rolling....
TB at SF
Garcia has happy feet and that doesn’t bode well. Remember: play TB vs. West Coast. The lines pretty high, though. 3.5? I guess its okay so long as its below 4.
Washington at Buffalo
Someone needs to get their act together...FAST! I love the new physicalness of the Washington defense.
Chicago at Seattle
The temptation is to think that Seattle can’t cover, but they are likely to showcase their muster against the punchless Bears.
SD at Cleveland
Boston lit it up in his first game back, but the SD pass defense is unfixable. The question is: which Tim Couch do we see this week?
Jets at Houston
Jets riding the tide, but remember what I said about the Falcons in regards to riding bad teams on an uptick. This game is wide open. Could be a good day for the Jets Santana Moss.
Dallas at Detroit
Detroit can put up points here.
New England at Miami
Who knows? Both teams strike me as unpredictable.
Philadelphia at NY
Book says take the road team in this series, although the Giants may finally own the upperhand.
Denver at Minnesota
Missing the Snake.
Green Bay at St Louis
Bulger will light up that cheesy defense, but the Packers will be in the 20s too. Depth of wideouts will challenge the Rams.
NO at Atlanta
I just like the sound of the name “Kurt Kitner”. Surprised NO can only command 1 here. A deal?
Tennessee at Carolina
The Pass against The Run.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Ravens are concerned here. No really!! But aren’t they a great surprise this season? Both teams, I mean.
DO NOT LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!!!
I wouldn’t quite put myself into the litter box after last week, but picture a cat hanging from a window sill by his fingernails and that’s about where I’m at right now. In particular, I was burned on those home favorites that gave up big leads on Sunday. Afterwards, I noticed that all of these home teams had yet to enjoy their byes, whilest the road teams that slaughtered them in the 4th quarter across the board were freshly rested teams with big guns in the passing game. Hmmm! Funny how when a trend emerges, it often goes 5-0 and not 3-2. Never much room for dumb luck in the NFL. Anyway, I discussed how more physical and rested teams would find the upper-hand this month and indeed that has come to pass.
I noticed this trend prior to the applicable Falcons/Rams game but didn’t really know how it would apply to an 11 point dog. Of course, they were also slaughtered in the 2nd half after hanging in by their toenails in the 1st half despite an abysmal effort. I really thought the Falcons had some semblance of momentum coming into that game, having played a bit heartier the previous week. Perhaps bad teams really don’t go through upticks? They just play a good game here and there and expecting them to sustain it from game-to-game might be foolhardy. I still feel that the scheduling has been a tremendous boost to Bulger, ala Warner in 1998. Of course, Warner repeated his efforts against stiffer competition in subsequent years, something I doubt Bulger will do. MNF did a good job of showcasing Bulger’s quick release. Warner’s prime asset used to be his quick and accurate decision making and that slid gradually with his decline. Bulger has brought that asset to the table, and his quick release frustrates pass rushes and makes it difficult to intercept the ball when combined with accuracy. Bulger was only knocked down twice on Monday, pathetic!
Lets talk about the hot QBs for a moment. First, all the buzz about McNair! I don’t mind him getting his due, but after torching HOUSTON? C’mon yards vs. Houston, Arizona...that only counts on Fantasy Football and even then it should get some kind of a curve. Still, I always like to fade teams that are running up the line against the likes of Houston. If you get no pressure on a guy like McNair, what do you really think is going to happen? Meanwhile, Ramsey is getting pounded and frequently its been his fault (holding the ball forever on a 3-step drop) but Washington truly has a find here. Ramsey has a long way to go in the mental game but he’ll be a force to recon with sooner or later. Finally, the desirous media continues to overhype the Jacksonville product. I haven’t seen him play but the word is that he is going to be real, real good.
Seattle screwed up another cover this week, nearly blowing a wrapped-up-with-a-bow game to SF on a bunch of nitpicky penalties in the 2nd half. What the layman remembers, though, is Terrell Owens dropping a lot of balls of his chest like he was the male athlete version of Dolly Parton. I’ve heard the various theories about this and I take exception to all of them. The problem was simple: he gave up on the game. Once again, he saw his team being crushed on the scoreboard and having little faith in his team, he packed it in. Ironically, that wasn’t enough to doom the 49ers from a comeback – although it might have cost them the “W”. Still, in many ways, the 49ers have not been the soft mark I took them to be.
Patriots continue to get it done somehow and the Giants self-destructed. But be careful – it was a rainy sloppy mess and the Giants will take an excessive power rating hit for that performance. Dallas continues to win but they really aren’t that good. I think their schedule turns sour soon and they may struggle to the 8-8 mark when it is all said and done. Can it be true? The Broncos are WORSE without Jake Plummer?
One of the big surprises to me over the last couple years is that a number of teams are proving they DON’T need balance. Do the Ravens need a passing game to run the ball? Do the Chiefs need to throw to their wideouts to score 40 points? Can Marvin Harrison beat single and double coverage down by 21 points? Can the Panthers dominate the NFL with old school football? Based on these trends, I’d say isolate a teams strength, see how it matches the defenses weakness, and assume they can’t cover it. Because you know what? Right now in the NFL, it simply seems like they can’t.
The other thing I’ve noticed is the way teams have survived terrible situations at the safety position. Week after week, we’ve seen depleted secondaries take the field and it just doesn’t seem to be opening the deep play as frequently as you might expect.
BATTER UP!
MNF: KC vs Oakland
Duante Hall is worth the 4 points alone. The idea of Holmes showcasing his stuff on MNF is also appealing. Green actually completed passed to Gonzalez AND his wideout this week! Rolling....
TB at SF
Garcia has happy feet and that doesn’t bode well. Remember: play TB vs. West Coast. The lines pretty high, though. 3.5? I guess its okay so long as its below 4.
Washington at Buffalo
Someone needs to get their act together...FAST! I love the new physicalness of the Washington defense.
Chicago at Seattle
The temptation is to think that Seattle can’t cover, but they are likely to showcase their muster against the punchless Bears.
SD at Cleveland
Boston lit it up in his first game back, but the SD pass defense is unfixable. The question is: which Tim Couch do we see this week?
Jets at Houston
Jets riding the tide, but remember what I said about the Falcons in regards to riding bad teams on an uptick. This game is wide open. Could be a good day for the Jets Santana Moss.
Dallas at Detroit
Detroit can put up points here.
New England at Miami
Who knows? Both teams strike me as unpredictable.
Philadelphia at NY
Book says take the road team in this series, although the Giants may finally own the upperhand.
Denver at Minnesota
Missing the Snake.
Green Bay at St Louis
Bulger will light up that cheesy defense, but the Packers will be in the 20s too. Depth of wideouts will challenge the Rams.
NO at Atlanta
I just like the sound of the name “Kurt Kitner”. Surprised NO can only command 1 here. A deal?
Tennessee at Carolina
The Pass against The Run.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Ravens are concerned here. No really!! But aren’t they a great surprise this season? Both teams, I mean.
DO NOT LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!!!