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I’m back on my perch but it wasn’t the clean blowout it should have been. First, I tarnished my record going 1-2 on over/unders. I stink at over/unders but I sometimes have some luck on them in games where I don’t see a clear cut winner because I think it’ll be a 7-3 deal of a 49-47 deal. That wasn’t the case in these games where I also called the sides but still, I only lost the 2 games by about 3 points so I’ve done worse. Most of you read my San Diego debacle, where I sucked into a massive 6 ½ points for a neutral game in Arizona. In pitting SF vs. Indy, I predicted Indy was more likely not to cover and that was right, but SF shanked enough kicks to blow their game in Arizona too. Personally, I had SF on the money line. Figures, right? And I advocated Dallas a bit last week, who predictably laid the goose egg in a “we are due to win, you are due to lose” type game. Of couse, I put that angle out there and left it to YOU to decide, which is really what this column is all about. IE, I just want to break down the two sides and usually I’ll advocate one, but leave enough there for you to decide if I’m wrong.
I lost one other game: I took Jacksonville as my idiotic WTF of the week. That is my second idiotic WTF pick to lose now. I guess I can sure pick the idiotic WTF games, can’t I? Truth is, we often find ourselves looking for any hint or hope to believe in an underdogs. Truthfully, the best underdogs are usually those without any hint or hope. But as handicappers, we don’t want to get burned by the big surprise of the week. I find myself looking under rocks far too often. Did I suspect Bucs might beat the Cowboys 16-0? Sure as hell did. Was it a surprise Jacksonville got creamed at home? Not at all. Yet I found myself pushing these picks largely on line value and against basic common sense. If you ever find the perfect balance between risk and reward, you will do very well. I don’t think the Cowboys were a particularly bad bet outside of perhaps a strong “due” factor, but teams like Jacksonville routinely get spanked at home vs. their big division brother.
Still, a lot went right last week and the body of knowledge on these teams wasn’t terribly advanced. I felt a bit better about the NFC East though, outside of the Redskins. I have to question if there is truly much seperation between the Cowboys and either the Eagles or Giants now. Going into the weekend, it was hard to argue that there wasn’t. I’m going to look the other way on the Vikings loss, which seemed to be a matter of being due. Culpepper threw his first interception of the season at a very inopportune time! I won’t look the other way on the Bills debacle, who got a bye against the Skins but promptly returned to form. This was a team without any cohesive game plan. They faked the run and threw in the first half, and then in the second half down 21-0 they faked the pass and ran the ball. Did this make any sense?? I was lost.
One nice thing this weekend is line value for the home teams did seem to payoff finally. I thought the Steelers and Saints were both getting shortchanged and they both gave me Ws. I liked the value on the Bengals and Cards and they both paid off too. Only Jax seemed unable to make a run at the points. It was good to see the weak home teams stand up a little bit. I was also pleased that Seattle blew another one since I gave up on them last week.
Looking ahead...........
GIANTS –2.5 JETS
I’m excited about the return of Pennington. This guy was so accurate last year, I remember seeing a prop of over/under 72% completions. I think the prop lost but I was amazed to see it. Its hard to get the memory of that end-of-game quacking duck out of my head, but this is good value even with Vinnie at QB. Giants get a punch up from last week’s effort but that’s the kind of game I expect the G-Men to do well in anyways. This is less their style. Value is Giants –1. Obviously great if it hits Jets +3 by Sunday, as it likely will do.
Jaxs +7 Ravens
The line is right but I really don’t like calling Jacksonville games. Just don’t have a feel for them. If I’m Boller, I want to show that I’m the better rookie QB. Incidentally, I thought it was a bad call too.
Oakland –3 Detroit
Shouldn’t Detroit be favored here?
Chargers +2.5 Chicago
Well, I sure as hell am not taking the Chargers. If they couldn’t play having prepared all week, how are they going to play when they haven’t had a chance to prepare all week without distraction? Chicago –3.5 from my book.
Colts +3 Dolphins
I’ve heard a couple people say Griese looked great last week. Yeah, throwing from the goal line! The MNF game was all about Chargers O falling apart. I say the book on Griese is still empty and we KNOW what the Colts bring. Can’t imagine why you go Fish here. Griese had a good RB in Denver and still lost more than his fair share.
Saints +8 Bucs
There is a good field goal of value for the Bucs but they are probably more focused on playing the Panthers next week.
Skins +4.5 Cowboys
Good value for the Cowboys, but history says the worser team wins this game. Guess who that is?
Panthers –7 Texans
If the Panthers want Bucs defense respect, they need to shutdown the Texans this week and win a game cleanly. It would make good drama for next week if the Panthers win 16-0, which is my call.
Bengals –3 Cardinals
The Cardinals have been DOMINANT at home this year! At least the attendance is up with the heat falling, even if those fans are wearing Bengal stripes. The bigger question is the Bengals, who I think are playing competitive ball but still aren’t out of the minor leagues yet. They have big secondary questions and Arizona has passed the ball pretty well against weak secondaries. And Shipp is no surprise at RB, although you might get surprised by Dillon if he doesn’t call for a taxi cab. A rare good betting line for the Cardinals. You may say they can’t win two in a row, but they can against a poor team and a team with no FG kicker. (Note: Cards have a backup kicker in play!)
Steelers +4.5 Seahawks
I’m not touching it.
Eagles –4.5 Falcons
Reeves read my column last week where I lamented the fact that the more starters a secondary has out, the better they play. SOOOOO...the Falcons benched their secondary this week. Personally, I’m not going to test this theory out. This is a hot Eagles play but it cools off a bit once the line hits 5, which has probably already happened by the time you read this.
Rams –3 49ers
Uhm, RAMS? They might be looking past this game to...uhm...the Superbowl? Rattay is not the answer, unless he can kick field goals. The 49er kicking situation warrants the –3 alone.
Vikings –4.5 Packers
Hmmm... Randy Moss vs. Al Harris. Hmmmmm.... what should I do here?
Patriots +2.5 Broncos
Haven’t seen a backup QB win a big spread in a while. Could this be it? Patriots chinks bound to show up eventually so be cautious before you load credit card money on the Patriots here.
DO NOT LET THE CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
I lost one other game: I took Jacksonville as my idiotic WTF of the week. That is my second idiotic WTF pick to lose now. I guess I can sure pick the idiotic WTF games, can’t I? Truth is, we often find ourselves looking for any hint or hope to believe in an underdogs. Truthfully, the best underdogs are usually those without any hint or hope. But as handicappers, we don’t want to get burned by the big surprise of the week. I find myself looking under rocks far too often. Did I suspect Bucs might beat the Cowboys 16-0? Sure as hell did. Was it a surprise Jacksonville got creamed at home? Not at all. Yet I found myself pushing these picks largely on line value and against basic common sense. If you ever find the perfect balance between risk and reward, you will do very well. I don’t think the Cowboys were a particularly bad bet outside of perhaps a strong “due” factor, but teams like Jacksonville routinely get spanked at home vs. their big division brother.
Still, a lot went right last week and the body of knowledge on these teams wasn’t terribly advanced. I felt a bit better about the NFC East though, outside of the Redskins. I have to question if there is truly much seperation between the Cowboys and either the Eagles or Giants now. Going into the weekend, it was hard to argue that there wasn’t. I’m going to look the other way on the Vikings loss, which seemed to be a matter of being due. Culpepper threw his first interception of the season at a very inopportune time! I won’t look the other way on the Bills debacle, who got a bye against the Skins but promptly returned to form. This was a team without any cohesive game plan. They faked the run and threw in the first half, and then in the second half down 21-0 they faked the pass and ran the ball. Did this make any sense?? I was lost.
One nice thing this weekend is line value for the home teams did seem to payoff finally. I thought the Steelers and Saints were both getting shortchanged and they both gave me Ws. I liked the value on the Bengals and Cards and they both paid off too. Only Jax seemed unable to make a run at the points. It was good to see the weak home teams stand up a little bit. I was also pleased that Seattle blew another one since I gave up on them last week.
Looking ahead...........
GIANTS –2.5 JETS
I’m excited about the return of Pennington. This guy was so accurate last year, I remember seeing a prop of over/under 72% completions. I think the prop lost but I was amazed to see it. Its hard to get the memory of that end-of-game quacking duck out of my head, but this is good value even with Vinnie at QB. Giants get a punch up from last week’s effort but that’s the kind of game I expect the G-Men to do well in anyways. This is less their style. Value is Giants –1. Obviously great if it hits Jets +3 by Sunday, as it likely will do.
Jaxs +7 Ravens
The line is right but I really don’t like calling Jacksonville games. Just don’t have a feel for them. If I’m Boller, I want to show that I’m the better rookie QB. Incidentally, I thought it was a bad call too.
Oakland –3 Detroit
Shouldn’t Detroit be favored here?
Chargers +2.5 Chicago
Well, I sure as hell am not taking the Chargers. If they couldn’t play having prepared all week, how are they going to play when they haven’t had a chance to prepare all week without distraction? Chicago –3.5 from my book.
Colts +3 Dolphins
I’ve heard a couple people say Griese looked great last week. Yeah, throwing from the goal line! The MNF game was all about Chargers O falling apart. I say the book on Griese is still empty and we KNOW what the Colts bring. Can’t imagine why you go Fish here. Griese had a good RB in Denver and still lost more than his fair share.
Saints +8 Bucs
There is a good field goal of value for the Bucs but they are probably more focused on playing the Panthers next week.
Skins +4.5 Cowboys
Good value for the Cowboys, but history says the worser team wins this game. Guess who that is?
Panthers –7 Texans
If the Panthers want Bucs defense respect, they need to shutdown the Texans this week and win a game cleanly. It would make good drama for next week if the Panthers win 16-0, which is my call.
Bengals –3 Cardinals
The Cardinals have been DOMINANT at home this year! At least the attendance is up with the heat falling, even if those fans are wearing Bengal stripes. The bigger question is the Bengals, who I think are playing competitive ball but still aren’t out of the minor leagues yet. They have big secondary questions and Arizona has passed the ball pretty well against weak secondaries. And Shipp is no surprise at RB, although you might get surprised by Dillon if he doesn’t call for a taxi cab. A rare good betting line for the Cardinals. You may say they can’t win two in a row, but they can against a poor team and a team with no FG kicker. (Note: Cards have a backup kicker in play!)
Steelers +4.5 Seahawks
I’m not touching it.
Eagles –4.5 Falcons
Reeves read my column last week where I lamented the fact that the more starters a secondary has out, the better they play. SOOOOO...the Falcons benched their secondary this week. Personally, I’m not going to test this theory out. This is a hot Eagles play but it cools off a bit once the line hits 5, which has probably already happened by the time you read this.
Rams –3 49ers
Uhm, RAMS? They might be looking past this game to...uhm...the Superbowl? Rattay is not the answer, unless he can kick field goals. The 49er kicking situation warrants the –3 alone.
Vikings –4.5 Packers
Hmmm... Randy Moss vs. Al Harris. Hmmmmm.... what should I do here?
Patriots +2.5 Broncos
Haven’t seen a backup QB win a big spread in a while. Could this be it? Patriots chinks bound to show up eventually so be cautious before you load credit card money on the Patriots here.
DO NOT LET THE CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
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