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One for Friday, Two for Saturday
As many of you know, we have labored through this college football season, but I feel very confident about these three plays so I wanted to share them with everyone. Enjoy.
I'll start posting NCAA Hoops plays in a few weeks.
Cincinnati at South Florida (-2.5) - 4:30pm - Friday
Despite last weeks loss at Southern Miss, I remain very high on this South Florida team and I expect a much better performance today. Last week vs the Golden Eagles, the Bulls had a series of first half misfortunes:
Southern Miss connects on 80 yard TD pass on the first play of the game to lead 6-0 (missed extra point).
South Florida drives for a FG 6-3.
Southern Miss goes 3 and out.
South Florida drives inside the 10 yard line, but a 15 yard penalty forced a 34 yard FG. attempt which is blocked due to a bad snap and returned for a TD making it 13-3.
South Florida drives all the way to the USM 5 yard line and fumbles.
Southern Miss goes 5 plays and out but incredibly punts 77 yards and pins USF inside their own 10.
Southern Miss ends up getting the ball back at the USF 30 and goes in for a TD, making it 20-3 at half-time.
South Florida ended up getting flagged 13 times for 139 yards. It just was not a pretty game. They now return home where they had won 21 straight games (second longest streak in nation) before 3 point loss to TCU three weeks ago. The Bulls are also 15-1 straight up (only loss coming at Oklahoma) in their last 16 games following a loss under Jim Leavitt. That includes 5-0 in lined games. South Florida has an above average offense and defense. They can beat teams with either unit. The offense will get a boost tonight with the return of senior caption WR Chris Iskra who has missed all but one game this season with a nagging hamstring injury. He is listed as probable.
Cincinnati struggled with an awful Army team last week. They actually trailed in the 4th quarter and needed a late score just to win outright as a four touchdown favorite. I noted earlier in the season that coaches must have not had a lot of confidence in this years team when they chose to add division 1-AA foe Rhode Island to the schedule in place of Ohio State. The Bearcats have not played well since an early September win at West Virginia. They are 2-3 since then with only wins coming in OT vs Temple and last week vs winless Army. Homecoming night will ensure a good sized crowd for USF. After having just signed a big contract extension, USF head coach Leavitt (15-7 career ATS) will not let this one slip away. Give the small number.
South Florida 1 UNIT
Clemson at Wake Forest (Over 48) - 12:30pm Pacific - Saturday
Clemson QB Charlie Whitehurst is on pace to easily break school single season records for both completions and passing yardage. Junior Derrick Hamilton, senior Kevin Youngblood, and junior Airese Currie (returned from 2+ game absense last week) make up the finest trio of receivers in the nation. They will be going up against a Wake Forest defense that ranks last in the ACC in pass defense. Clemson is averaging an ACC best 431 yards per game of offense in last six games since invoking their no huddle offense. Currie was hurt in the Maryland game when Clemson scored only seven points due to red zone failures against an excellent Terps defense. He did not play when Clemson scored only 15 points in an oddly low scoring Thursday night game at NC State. With a healthy Currie (best deep threat) they are averaging 37.3ppg since going to the no huddle offense. Defensively, Clemson has been banged up for a while. Senior DE JJ Howard (4 sacks in first 5 games) was lost for the season vs Virginia three games back. Junior LB Eric Sampson (5th on team in tackles) missed last week with an ankle injury and will likely contribute off the bench this week if he plays at all. The last four opponents have averaged 23.25ppg, and UNC racked up 498 total yards a week ago on the Clemson defense. The Heels had a chance to tie the score with a 2 point conversion but fumbled at the goal line late in the game.
Wake Forest pounded away a season high 365 yards vs Clemson last season. Clemson DC Lovett said they just did not have any answer for Wake's runnning game. Despite returning only 3 starters on offense, Wake has picked up right where they left off last year and leads the ACC in rushing. Sophomore tailback Chris Barclay was slowed by injuries at the start of the year but had back to back big games vs Georgia Tech (124 yards) and Duke (163 yards) before gaining 50 at Florida State last week. Wake was able to rush for 230 yards against the vaunted FSU defense. The 230 rushing yards were 99 more than any other team had rushed for against the Seminoles (allowed an average of 81.7 per game coming in) this season. Their 24 points scored is also the most points allowed by Florida State this season. Not counting Duke, the Deacs have given up an average of 471 yards and 33 points per game in last three ACC games. Wake likes to employ a "bend but dont break defense" that is designed to give up lots of yardage but not points. They just do not have the athletes to contain Clemson's receivers or provide adequate pressure on the QB. Wake punter Ryan Plackemeier, one of the best in the nation, may not be able to punt this week due to a pulled muscle in his kicking leg. If he can not go, it will result in better field position for the Tigers. Six of Wake's eight games this season have surpassed a total of 50. Make it seven of nine after today.
Over 48 1 UNIT
Virginia (-1) at NC State - 12:30pm Pacific - Saturday
Expect an inspired effort from Virginia today as they have lost two straight ACC games. One in OT after a slow start at Clemson by 3, and two weeks ago by 5 vs Florida State. Fifth year senior QB Matt Schaub is fully recovered from early season shoulder injury and leads the nation with a 71% completion percentage. RB Wali Lundy was leading the ACC is rushing per game before injury vs Clemson. He missed the Florida State game but returned to get 6 carries vs Troy State last week which suggests he will be 100% for this game. Backup RB Alvin Pearman (three games with 90 or more yards) is sure to get plenty of carries as well. Both can catch the ball well out of the backfield. After only 10 catches in first five games, senior WR Ryan Sawyer is starting to come on with 14 receptions in last three games. Tight end Heath Miller is one of the best in the country and leads the team in both receptions and receiving yards. This is a very balanced offense.
NC State also possesses a potent offense. QB Phillip Rivers is second in the nation behind Schaub in completion percentage. However, he will not have all of his weapons this week. Sophomore receiver Richard Washington (third on team in receptions despite missing two games and most of another) is expected to miss with a rib injury and top RB T.A. McClendon will be at less than 100% with a knee injury. McClendon was upgraded from doubtful to "?" on Friday but head coach Amato said he definitely would not start. NC State is 0-4 ATS in games that McClendon has not played in this season and they are 0-2 ATS in games that Washington did not start or finish. NC State has really struggled running the ball in recent weeks. They have only averaged 55.5 rushing yards per game in last four against the likes of Georgia Tech, Clemson, UConn, and Duke. I do not see them having success running the ball today either.
The real difference between these teams in defense. Virginia has by far the better unit of the two teams. Both teams have played five ACC games, both teams have faced Duke, Virginia has faced Florida State, NC State has not. Through five ACC games Virginia is allowing 17.2 points and 349 yards per game. NC State is allowing 27.4 points and 400 yards per game. The Wolfpack have also given up 27.2 points per game vs non-conference opponents and a ton of yardage. Two of NC State's three ACC wins were vs Duke and North Carolina. They beat Clemson by just 2 points and were not competitive in their two losses. They are 0-5 ATS in ACC play. Virginia is coming off an easy 24-0 homecoming win over Troy State and I really get the feeling they are sitting on a big game. Cavs win convincingly.
Virginia 1 UNIT
Good luck,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
I'll start posting NCAA Hoops plays in a few weeks.
Cincinnati at South Florida (-2.5) - 4:30pm - Friday
Despite last weeks loss at Southern Miss, I remain very high on this South Florida team and I expect a much better performance today. Last week vs the Golden Eagles, the Bulls had a series of first half misfortunes:
Southern Miss connects on 80 yard TD pass on the first play of the game to lead 6-0 (missed extra point).
South Florida drives for a FG 6-3.
Southern Miss goes 3 and out.
South Florida drives inside the 10 yard line, but a 15 yard penalty forced a 34 yard FG. attempt which is blocked due to a bad snap and returned for a TD making it 13-3.
South Florida drives all the way to the USM 5 yard line and fumbles.
Southern Miss goes 5 plays and out but incredibly punts 77 yards and pins USF inside their own 10.
Southern Miss ends up getting the ball back at the USF 30 and goes in for a TD, making it 20-3 at half-time.
South Florida ended up getting flagged 13 times for 139 yards. It just was not a pretty game. They now return home where they had won 21 straight games (second longest streak in nation) before 3 point loss to TCU three weeks ago. The Bulls are also 15-1 straight up (only loss coming at Oklahoma) in their last 16 games following a loss under Jim Leavitt. That includes 5-0 in lined games. South Florida has an above average offense and defense. They can beat teams with either unit. The offense will get a boost tonight with the return of senior caption WR Chris Iskra who has missed all but one game this season with a nagging hamstring injury. He is listed as probable.
Cincinnati struggled with an awful Army team last week. They actually trailed in the 4th quarter and needed a late score just to win outright as a four touchdown favorite. I noted earlier in the season that coaches must have not had a lot of confidence in this years team when they chose to add division 1-AA foe Rhode Island to the schedule in place of Ohio State. The Bearcats have not played well since an early September win at West Virginia. They are 2-3 since then with only wins coming in OT vs Temple and last week vs winless Army. Homecoming night will ensure a good sized crowd for USF. After having just signed a big contract extension, USF head coach Leavitt (15-7 career ATS) will not let this one slip away. Give the small number.
South Florida 1 UNIT
Clemson at Wake Forest (Over 48) - 12:30pm Pacific - Saturday
Clemson QB Charlie Whitehurst is on pace to easily break school single season records for both completions and passing yardage. Junior Derrick Hamilton, senior Kevin Youngblood, and junior Airese Currie (returned from 2+ game absense last week) make up the finest trio of receivers in the nation. They will be going up against a Wake Forest defense that ranks last in the ACC in pass defense. Clemson is averaging an ACC best 431 yards per game of offense in last six games since invoking their no huddle offense. Currie was hurt in the Maryland game when Clemson scored only seven points due to red zone failures against an excellent Terps defense. He did not play when Clemson scored only 15 points in an oddly low scoring Thursday night game at NC State. With a healthy Currie (best deep threat) they are averaging 37.3ppg since going to the no huddle offense. Defensively, Clemson has been banged up for a while. Senior DE JJ Howard (4 sacks in first 5 games) was lost for the season vs Virginia three games back. Junior LB Eric Sampson (5th on team in tackles) missed last week with an ankle injury and will likely contribute off the bench this week if he plays at all. The last four opponents have averaged 23.25ppg, and UNC racked up 498 total yards a week ago on the Clemson defense. The Heels had a chance to tie the score with a 2 point conversion but fumbled at the goal line late in the game.
Wake Forest pounded away a season high 365 yards vs Clemson last season. Clemson DC Lovett said they just did not have any answer for Wake's runnning game. Despite returning only 3 starters on offense, Wake has picked up right where they left off last year and leads the ACC in rushing. Sophomore tailback Chris Barclay was slowed by injuries at the start of the year but had back to back big games vs Georgia Tech (124 yards) and Duke (163 yards) before gaining 50 at Florida State last week. Wake was able to rush for 230 yards against the vaunted FSU defense. The 230 rushing yards were 99 more than any other team had rushed for against the Seminoles (allowed an average of 81.7 per game coming in) this season. Their 24 points scored is also the most points allowed by Florida State this season. Not counting Duke, the Deacs have given up an average of 471 yards and 33 points per game in last three ACC games. Wake likes to employ a "bend but dont break defense" that is designed to give up lots of yardage but not points. They just do not have the athletes to contain Clemson's receivers or provide adequate pressure on the QB. Wake punter Ryan Plackemeier, one of the best in the nation, may not be able to punt this week due to a pulled muscle in his kicking leg. If he can not go, it will result in better field position for the Tigers. Six of Wake's eight games this season have surpassed a total of 50. Make it seven of nine after today.
Over 48 1 UNIT
Virginia (-1) at NC State - 12:30pm Pacific - Saturday
Expect an inspired effort from Virginia today as they have lost two straight ACC games. One in OT after a slow start at Clemson by 3, and two weeks ago by 5 vs Florida State. Fifth year senior QB Matt Schaub is fully recovered from early season shoulder injury and leads the nation with a 71% completion percentage. RB Wali Lundy was leading the ACC is rushing per game before injury vs Clemson. He missed the Florida State game but returned to get 6 carries vs Troy State last week which suggests he will be 100% for this game. Backup RB Alvin Pearman (three games with 90 or more yards) is sure to get plenty of carries as well. Both can catch the ball well out of the backfield. After only 10 catches in first five games, senior WR Ryan Sawyer is starting to come on with 14 receptions in last three games. Tight end Heath Miller is one of the best in the country and leads the team in both receptions and receiving yards. This is a very balanced offense.
NC State also possesses a potent offense. QB Phillip Rivers is second in the nation behind Schaub in completion percentage. However, he will not have all of his weapons this week. Sophomore receiver Richard Washington (third on team in receptions despite missing two games and most of another) is expected to miss with a rib injury and top RB T.A. McClendon will be at less than 100% with a knee injury. McClendon was upgraded from doubtful to "?" on Friday but head coach Amato said he definitely would not start. NC State is 0-4 ATS in games that McClendon has not played in this season and they are 0-2 ATS in games that Washington did not start or finish. NC State has really struggled running the ball in recent weeks. They have only averaged 55.5 rushing yards per game in last four against the likes of Georgia Tech, Clemson, UConn, and Duke. I do not see them having success running the ball today either.
The real difference between these teams in defense. Virginia has by far the better unit of the two teams. Both teams have played five ACC games, both teams have faced Duke, Virginia has faced Florida State, NC State has not. Through five ACC games Virginia is allowing 17.2 points and 349 yards per game. NC State is allowing 27.4 points and 400 yards per game. The Wolfpack have also given up 27.2 points per game vs non-conference opponents and a ton of yardage. Two of NC State's three ACC wins were vs Duke and North Carolina. They beat Clemson by just 2 points and were not competitive in their two losses. They are 0-5 ATS in ACC play. Virginia is coming off an easy 24-0 homecoming win over Troy State and I really get the feeling they are sitting on a big game. Cavs win convincingly.
Virginia 1 UNIT
Good luck,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
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