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You have to hate it when the lab rats in our little experiment become self-aware. Such was the case for The Iceman, who heard the cries about his inability to play in the warmth of an indoor stadium and responded. Perhaps the finest play of the season was the crushing block Farve spontaneously threw on two unsuspecting Vikings. This is the guy who had lost his heart to play? He didn’t quite have the tools anymore? The ageless wonder with his broken thumb, throwing clinical flying blocks and firing passes into the guts of receivers like Elway going for it on 4th down in the Superbowl? After seeing that, I didn’t give a damn about my cash – I wanted the Packers to win. Last week, I said I’d overlook the Vikings loss to the Giants. No more. The truth about that game is the Vikings defense was abominable. Each week at his press conference, Mike Tice has responded to compliments about his defense with, “Its easy to play defense when you have a large lead.” Coach-speak translation: “God help us if we ever don’t have a large lead.” I guess he knows what he was talking about because in a close game, the Vikings haven’t a prayer. The Minnesota offense held the ball the ENTIRE 3rd quarter – what more could you want? -- yet the rested Vikes with the crowd rising to their feet were helpless in the 4th. Even the Vikings offensive players had this look of certain death on their face as they punted the ball away towards the end of the game. This is likely a bend-but-don’t break defense that will be shattered in the 2nd half as offenses in the NFL operate with mistake-free efficiency. The Packers defense was no Steel Curtain but Al Harris certainly held up better than expected – even if he was flailing at the bottom of the screen on Moss’ touchdown expecting better safety help. However, Farve diving block made the unmistakeable message that this was an urgent game for the Packers and you were going to get full effort betting them. This is a key factor in both the line-making and the line-wagering of the rest of the season. Whereas in September we brutalized lines based on poor power rankings, now we face lines with well-established power rankings but manipulated to offset gambler expectations. I’ll clarify more as we continue through Week 10.
If you read this column last week, you are probably damn happy with the Cat. Unless you like to fade me in which case – haha to you! My official freesports only went 5-4 on a week where most people landed sub-.500 but I’ll argue it was better than that. I took a “loss” on the Jets whereas +3 was widely available in the “real” world that would have broken me out to a nice 5-3-1. I ask for credit on that because I did publish to wait for the +3 at your local bookie, which came prior to the weekend. I lost on Carolina, where I honestly forgot that we had a coaches grudge match in operation here. Not that I would have switched sides necessarily, but I might have shyed away. Still, 150 yards from Stephen Davis would normally translate to a win. Packers and 49ers handed me the other 2.
Wow – the NFL network is here! Non-stop ESPN football copycat shows with really cool music and graphics. Well, okay by me! Nice to have an alternative to the weekly “Steve McNair is the best QB” indoctrination at ESPN (okay, so they have a point here...) I have to laugh at the self-expectation of honest journalism here. You know the first time they run some kind of negative story, some owner is going to call down to the station and tell them to shut their piehole. Still, a fairly solid debut this week. The NFL live show host is kind of shaky. I liked their round-the-NFL edited speech show, much easier than watching hours and hours of conferences Monday morning. And haven’t absorbed their X and O show but I’m sure that’ll be fun too. And those NFL follies, well, I saw that first tape on betamax like 2000 times growing up, brought back fond memories, sniff. “The ball fellows, pick up the ball. Can anyone pick up the ball? Anyone? Please????” (insert montage of players unable to pick up the ball here)
Okay, I kind of liked that full slate analysis/discussion I did last week so lets try and run that clip again! “And now...the scoop the bookies don’t want you to read!!!”
GAME OF THE WEEK: TB –3 Carolina
This is a very very interesting line. First, keep in mind that Stephen Davis is probable. In the Black Cat’s book, that means he is probable to get 200 yards. Last week, Farve was probable. Faulk has been probable for 3 years. I am concerned that Stephen Davis really wants to kick ass NEXT week too, but he wants to come back to Washington a winner. Therefore, he’ll have to kick ass this week AND next week. Now, this line is silly high. I don’t mind that Tampa Bay is 4-4. They are a DEFENSIVE team. Going 4-4 for the first half of the season is about all you need to be a serious contender. HOWEVER, I do mind that they are 1-3 at home. Looking at last week’s losses, who’s loss was worse? Easily Tampa Bay. I like to look at home games because there is NEVER an excuse not to have your game on for a home game. Tampa is the prototype championship team that thinks they can turn it on and off. Just look at their record, win loss win loss win loss. They think they can just show up and win and play good when they REALLY want to. Time and time again, this has been proven not to work. I don’t like this pattern and one day they will find that they can’t just turn it on when they want to. You can’t play bad one week and expect to magically play great next week.
However, the bookies are not stupid. TB has a lot of respect still. This is a critical game, as was the Packers game last week. The books are basically blocking off Tampa Bay, which will still attract bettors anyway. This is a classic, “TB will win because they NEED to win” game. Books aren’t stupid, they are going to put enough points in the equation to give themselves a fair shot. The question to ask yourself is, “Are the Panthers for real?” I think they are real and they play close games -- even in a loss, those 3 points mean something. The Bucs are yapping away guaranteeing wins. Sapp is begging for Davis publicly – hah, as if he will be stopping him anyway. Its like the injured Shockey calling out the opponent when he wasn’t even playing last year. I hope Sapp gets his wish and he gets a front-seat view to his linebackers spend the day wiffing on Davis. I recommend taking the +3 value here.
Cincinnati –5 Houston
Seems like most people were shocked with the Bengals loss last week. I even heard some guys on ESPN talk about the Cardinals today as if they were something more than the NFL’s version of the Globetrotters opposition. If you thought the Bengals were going to win out and go to the Superbowl, your expectations were probably too high. Houston is a REAL football team this year. They’ve been blown out by some really good teams but when they are in the game, they are IN the game. The problem with Houston, though, is that they can’t follow a win with a good effort. If the Bucs can’t keep their heads after winning a game, what chance do the Texans have? They haven’t hung 20 following a victory and they were the same way last year. Personally, I like the value getting the Texans +5, but the smart play is to expect another Texas hoedown vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
Detroit –2 Chicago
Since I didn’t expect much from Oakland last week (“shouldn’t the Lions be favored here?” I said) the victory didn’t surprise me. It also didn’t improve me feelings about the Lions. Chicago has new life with a new quarterback and they kicked the lions butt just two weeks ago. Why should I expect anything to change now? I don’t. Chicago.
Indianapolis –6.5 Jacksonville
Even though I sided heavily with the Colts last week (“Why would anyone go fish here?”) the stats I posted later showed that the Colts were giving up too much on the ground. Facing Ricky Williams, this was very troublesome. It proved to be an ironic non-issue as they held Williams to 13 rushing attempts for a 2nd straight heroic week. The Colts are now no longer in the playoff elimination danger zone! Yes folks, this team is for real. I love a top-contender on the road vs. their weaker division foes. Titans already pounded the Jags and the Colts should do no less. Edgerrin looked okay, but backup Rhodes looked even better and they were a very effective 1-2 punch. There is nothing not to like about the Colts. Bookmakers angle that the Colts only won by 10 at home but I wouldn’t count on the points to save you here. Do you think they are missing Coughlin in Florida about now?
KC –9.5 Cleveland
You can look at KC as a team fresh off a bye, haven’t lost a game, playing a weak Cleveland team with a poor line and slow linebackers that don’t matchup. Cleveland’s only victories were against down-and-out teams. You might even sniff a little value on that 9.5 line. Or, you can look at the fact that Cleveland has stayed within 6 in just about every matchup, including the opener vs. Indy and NE just two weeks ago. KC has not won by 10 in 4 of their last 5 games. The two teams rank back-to-back on defensing the run. So I think you can scientifically argue that the Browns are worth +9.5. Will you bet it? I know I’m not inspired with confidence in this team, and their is nothing here that really gives you any hint that Cleveland can win outright. In fact, they better not because being in KC, that would be an atrocious way to blow an 8-0 start. But isn’t that how those streaks typically fall? Edge to value.
NYG –10.5 Atlanta
The Falcons backups were a dramatic improvement over the usual starting secondary, slowing McNabb to under 800 yards. This line is definitely the bookmakers throwing their hands up. Will anyone take Atlanta? Please??? The one thing I can say for the Falcons is that they really have had a difficult schedule. The Giants aren’t a team you particularly love as a favorite; they seem to embrace the underdog role with better passion. Still, double-digit losses by the Falcons are par for the course. This is a fat line and the important thing to realize is this is the kind of line you deserve as a better with a down-and-out team like the Falcons, so no more Falcons +7 for me. Collins is experiencing a mid-season rebirth and he has shown he can rip bad defense to shreds. Remember the NFC Championship against the Vikings? That’s about what you should expect here even though it flies vs. value.
Pittsburgh –7.5 Cardinals
Again, the bookmakers have abandoned their line. A “real line” splits a power ranking into a 50-50 situation. It is then up to the bettor to decide based on team colors, weather, pre-game speeches, whatever, which 50-50 situation will actually occur. However, in a game like this, the bookies have chosen for you. THEY are looking at the external factors and saying “The steelers will win.” Why would they say this? For one, if the Cardinals win, they would go 4-4. That can’t happen in this league. Any time the Cardinals or any team like the Cardinals have had a chance to step up to the big leagues, they fall on their ass in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile, the Steelers are facing a franchise low 2-7 and looking at the Cardinals wondering, “We’re better than them, aren’t we? Aren’t WE?” This happens in crap games a lot where the teams look equal going in and unequal going out. IE, don’t expect a close game. The secret to beating the Steelers is to abuse Washington but the Steelers have now sat him down. I’m not sure the Cardinals have a 2nd wideout to do that with anyhow. The secret has never been to run the ball, as the Cardinals are certain to try relentlessly and fail to do. This is a pounding. Disregard the value and take the Steelers!
Tennessee Titans –5 Dolphins
After being grounded by the Colts, the fish have the ironic misfortune of facing the team that allows fewer rushing attempts than any other NFL team. In a very hostile stadium. With a backup QB who didn’t get the job done last week. There will be pressure for the Dolphins to run into the teeth of the defense after last week, which won’t help them win. Norv has always called to the weakness of the opposition and you would usually expect him to try and exploit the suspect Titans defense. Will he call the plays? Can Griese hit any of them? Looking at value, -5 is a slap at the Dolphins for a lackluster effort against the Colts. Given that they do have the backup at the helm it is justified. I like the Titans here. Don’t LOVE but like. Probably worth noting the Fish have hung within 6 in ALL of their games. Perhaps wait it out and see if it hits 6 and you have a nice value play. Titans usually win by double-digits but their list of victims is suspect. But it did include stopping Stephen Davis, Duece, a hot Houston rookie. Their run defense is not a mirage. The pass defense is all about pressuring the QB. Miami protects their QBs and getting their won’t be easy. Points could be at a premium.
Seattle –3 Washington
Now to two teams that DON’T protect their QBs. Hasselback is playing well but he routinely seems to get no help from his teammates. It is a disaster in Washington where they can’t stop the run and don’t run the ball. Redskin stock is way down so the books have no reservations giving the full 3 to a home dog. Redskins now have Fred Smoot back and in Arrington’s own words, “I can’t believe what a difference that guy makes to this defense.” Still, the Skins are a mess. The Skins couldn’t win last week given a +4 turnover advantage. That’s like getting a 5 second head start in the 40 yard dash and LOSING. Think they will go +4 this week? Probably not. So how can you expect to win? If you go Skins here, aiming at a very narrow window. Go Hawks, what will the margin of victory be? I’d wait to see how the line moves on this guy, should be interesting. I think the books are blocking off the Skins but haven’t really gone far enough yet in my opinion.
Vikings –6.5 Chargers
As stated above, the Vikings have lost me a fan. Still, when they can get a team to quit, they are a good value. There is no team more synonymous with “quit” in the NFL right now than the Chargers. And there is nothing more demoralizing than those all-to-easy Randy Moss 7 point TDs. As long as that gets me a win, I’ll take under 7 points on the Vikings. The Rams used to be that kind of team too, where you just lived on that 7 point number.
Buffalo +4 Dallas
Last week, I wrote about how ill-conceived the Bills play calling was. 4 is kind of a funny number, one I don’t think I’ve seen too much of this year. I like Parcells in any game he figures to outcoach the opposition and he figures to outcoach the opposition here. Good value, good pick, this won’t last long...take it.
Jets –3 Raiders
Gotta love the irony. Just last week, the books are trying to give away the Lions against the Raiders. Now, they’ve come full circle. Giving the Jets +3 is awfully generous here. I’m hot on the Jets but from a value perspective, this is really pushing things a bit. Again, stand back and see where this swings. You might be surprised by Raider $$$.
Rams –7 Ravens
I think one of the big shockers last week was the Rams blowing it against the 49ers. The 49ers/Rams game was a grudge match and those can be rather unpredictable. The line here is solid, but I like the Rams to get back on track. They have a good run defense that should hold Jamal in check. This is a big stepup for the Ravens in competition. I respect the Ravens and think they can play tough and cover, but I have to nod for the Rams to shine again.
Packers –4.5 Eagles
Packers are back on the radar as this line shows. Done well against their schedule except when the Iceman melted in Arizona like Frosty the Snowman when the spring time came. The Eagles are not a serious contender, benefitting from an easy schedule. Their d-line is soft, the running game is committee, and McNabb is being hit too often. This line is low by a full field goal. And personally, I love the ice man on a cold wet sloppy day. The weather will numb his thumb and he’ll have another great day throwing the ball behind solid protection. Better hope Al Harris doesn’t gamble your game away trying to showboat on MNF!
In summary, looks like I'm riding high on the hog with the favorites this week often against some pretty fat lines. After a week where the common man is sweating the surprises last week, maybe that's just the smart way to go. The favorites have been ponying up this season like never before that I can remember and the Cat sees that trend extending another week with the notable exception of Carolina.
DO NOT LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
If you read this column last week, you are probably damn happy with the Cat. Unless you like to fade me in which case – haha to you! My official freesports only went 5-4 on a week where most people landed sub-.500 but I’ll argue it was better than that. I took a “loss” on the Jets whereas +3 was widely available in the “real” world that would have broken me out to a nice 5-3-1. I ask for credit on that because I did publish to wait for the +3 at your local bookie, which came prior to the weekend. I lost on Carolina, where I honestly forgot that we had a coaches grudge match in operation here. Not that I would have switched sides necessarily, but I might have shyed away. Still, 150 yards from Stephen Davis would normally translate to a win. Packers and 49ers handed me the other 2.
Wow – the NFL network is here! Non-stop ESPN football copycat shows with really cool music and graphics. Well, okay by me! Nice to have an alternative to the weekly “Steve McNair is the best QB” indoctrination at ESPN (okay, so they have a point here...) I have to laugh at the self-expectation of honest journalism here. You know the first time they run some kind of negative story, some owner is going to call down to the station and tell them to shut their piehole. Still, a fairly solid debut this week. The NFL live show host is kind of shaky. I liked their round-the-NFL edited speech show, much easier than watching hours and hours of conferences Monday morning. And haven’t absorbed their X and O show but I’m sure that’ll be fun too. And those NFL follies, well, I saw that first tape on betamax like 2000 times growing up, brought back fond memories, sniff. “The ball fellows, pick up the ball. Can anyone pick up the ball? Anyone? Please????” (insert montage of players unable to pick up the ball here)
Okay, I kind of liked that full slate analysis/discussion I did last week so lets try and run that clip again! “And now...the scoop the bookies don’t want you to read!!!”
GAME OF THE WEEK: TB –3 Carolina
This is a very very interesting line. First, keep in mind that Stephen Davis is probable. In the Black Cat’s book, that means he is probable to get 200 yards. Last week, Farve was probable. Faulk has been probable for 3 years. I am concerned that Stephen Davis really wants to kick ass NEXT week too, but he wants to come back to Washington a winner. Therefore, he’ll have to kick ass this week AND next week. Now, this line is silly high. I don’t mind that Tampa Bay is 4-4. They are a DEFENSIVE team. Going 4-4 for the first half of the season is about all you need to be a serious contender. HOWEVER, I do mind that they are 1-3 at home. Looking at last week’s losses, who’s loss was worse? Easily Tampa Bay. I like to look at home games because there is NEVER an excuse not to have your game on for a home game. Tampa is the prototype championship team that thinks they can turn it on and off. Just look at their record, win loss win loss win loss. They think they can just show up and win and play good when they REALLY want to. Time and time again, this has been proven not to work. I don’t like this pattern and one day they will find that they can’t just turn it on when they want to. You can’t play bad one week and expect to magically play great next week.
However, the bookies are not stupid. TB has a lot of respect still. This is a critical game, as was the Packers game last week. The books are basically blocking off Tampa Bay, which will still attract bettors anyway. This is a classic, “TB will win because they NEED to win” game. Books aren’t stupid, they are going to put enough points in the equation to give themselves a fair shot. The question to ask yourself is, “Are the Panthers for real?” I think they are real and they play close games -- even in a loss, those 3 points mean something. The Bucs are yapping away guaranteeing wins. Sapp is begging for Davis publicly – hah, as if he will be stopping him anyway. Its like the injured Shockey calling out the opponent when he wasn’t even playing last year. I hope Sapp gets his wish and he gets a front-seat view to his linebackers spend the day wiffing on Davis. I recommend taking the +3 value here.
Cincinnati –5 Houston
Seems like most people were shocked with the Bengals loss last week. I even heard some guys on ESPN talk about the Cardinals today as if they were something more than the NFL’s version of the Globetrotters opposition. If you thought the Bengals were going to win out and go to the Superbowl, your expectations were probably too high. Houston is a REAL football team this year. They’ve been blown out by some really good teams but when they are in the game, they are IN the game. The problem with Houston, though, is that they can’t follow a win with a good effort. If the Bucs can’t keep their heads after winning a game, what chance do the Texans have? They haven’t hung 20 following a victory and they were the same way last year. Personally, I like the value getting the Texans +5, but the smart play is to expect another Texas hoedown vs. the Cincinnati Bengals.
Detroit –2 Chicago
Since I didn’t expect much from Oakland last week (“shouldn’t the Lions be favored here?” I said) the victory didn’t surprise me. It also didn’t improve me feelings about the Lions. Chicago has new life with a new quarterback and they kicked the lions butt just two weeks ago. Why should I expect anything to change now? I don’t. Chicago.
Indianapolis –6.5 Jacksonville
Even though I sided heavily with the Colts last week (“Why would anyone go fish here?”) the stats I posted later showed that the Colts were giving up too much on the ground. Facing Ricky Williams, this was very troublesome. It proved to be an ironic non-issue as they held Williams to 13 rushing attempts for a 2nd straight heroic week. The Colts are now no longer in the playoff elimination danger zone! Yes folks, this team is for real. I love a top-contender on the road vs. their weaker division foes. Titans already pounded the Jags and the Colts should do no less. Edgerrin looked okay, but backup Rhodes looked even better and they were a very effective 1-2 punch. There is nothing not to like about the Colts. Bookmakers angle that the Colts only won by 10 at home but I wouldn’t count on the points to save you here. Do you think they are missing Coughlin in Florida about now?
KC –9.5 Cleveland
You can look at KC as a team fresh off a bye, haven’t lost a game, playing a weak Cleveland team with a poor line and slow linebackers that don’t matchup. Cleveland’s only victories were against down-and-out teams. You might even sniff a little value on that 9.5 line. Or, you can look at the fact that Cleveland has stayed within 6 in just about every matchup, including the opener vs. Indy and NE just two weeks ago. KC has not won by 10 in 4 of their last 5 games. The two teams rank back-to-back on defensing the run. So I think you can scientifically argue that the Browns are worth +9.5. Will you bet it? I know I’m not inspired with confidence in this team, and their is nothing here that really gives you any hint that Cleveland can win outright. In fact, they better not because being in KC, that would be an atrocious way to blow an 8-0 start. But isn’t that how those streaks typically fall? Edge to value.
NYG –10.5 Atlanta
The Falcons backups were a dramatic improvement over the usual starting secondary, slowing McNabb to under 800 yards. This line is definitely the bookmakers throwing their hands up. Will anyone take Atlanta? Please??? The one thing I can say for the Falcons is that they really have had a difficult schedule. The Giants aren’t a team you particularly love as a favorite; they seem to embrace the underdog role with better passion. Still, double-digit losses by the Falcons are par for the course. This is a fat line and the important thing to realize is this is the kind of line you deserve as a better with a down-and-out team like the Falcons, so no more Falcons +7 for me. Collins is experiencing a mid-season rebirth and he has shown he can rip bad defense to shreds. Remember the NFC Championship against the Vikings? That’s about what you should expect here even though it flies vs. value.
Pittsburgh –7.5 Cardinals
Again, the bookmakers have abandoned their line. A “real line” splits a power ranking into a 50-50 situation. It is then up to the bettor to decide based on team colors, weather, pre-game speeches, whatever, which 50-50 situation will actually occur. However, in a game like this, the bookies have chosen for you. THEY are looking at the external factors and saying “The steelers will win.” Why would they say this? For one, if the Cardinals win, they would go 4-4. That can’t happen in this league. Any time the Cardinals or any team like the Cardinals have had a chance to step up to the big leagues, they fall on their ass in spectacular fashion. Meanwhile, the Steelers are facing a franchise low 2-7 and looking at the Cardinals wondering, “We’re better than them, aren’t we? Aren’t WE?” This happens in crap games a lot where the teams look equal going in and unequal going out. IE, don’t expect a close game. The secret to beating the Steelers is to abuse Washington but the Steelers have now sat him down. I’m not sure the Cardinals have a 2nd wideout to do that with anyhow. The secret has never been to run the ball, as the Cardinals are certain to try relentlessly and fail to do. This is a pounding. Disregard the value and take the Steelers!
Tennessee Titans –5 Dolphins
After being grounded by the Colts, the fish have the ironic misfortune of facing the team that allows fewer rushing attempts than any other NFL team. In a very hostile stadium. With a backup QB who didn’t get the job done last week. There will be pressure for the Dolphins to run into the teeth of the defense after last week, which won’t help them win. Norv has always called to the weakness of the opposition and you would usually expect him to try and exploit the suspect Titans defense. Will he call the plays? Can Griese hit any of them? Looking at value, -5 is a slap at the Dolphins for a lackluster effort against the Colts. Given that they do have the backup at the helm it is justified. I like the Titans here. Don’t LOVE but like. Probably worth noting the Fish have hung within 6 in ALL of their games. Perhaps wait it out and see if it hits 6 and you have a nice value play. Titans usually win by double-digits but their list of victims is suspect. But it did include stopping Stephen Davis, Duece, a hot Houston rookie. Their run defense is not a mirage. The pass defense is all about pressuring the QB. Miami protects their QBs and getting their won’t be easy. Points could be at a premium.
Seattle –3 Washington
Now to two teams that DON’T protect their QBs. Hasselback is playing well but he routinely seems to get no help from his teammates. It is a disaster in Washington where they can’t stop the run and don’t run the ball. Redskin stock is way down so the books have no reservations giving the full 3 to a home dog. Redskins now have Fred Smoot back and in Arrington’s own words, “I can’t believe what a difference that guy makes to this defense.” Still, the Skins are a mess. The Skins couldn’t win last week given a +4 turnover advantage. That’s like getting a 5 second head start in the 40 yard dash and LOSING. Think they will go +4 this week? Probably not. So how can you expect to win? If you go Skins here, aiming at a very narrow window. Go Hawks, what will the margin of victory be? I’d wait to see how the line moves on this guy, should be interesting. I think the books are blocking off the Skins but haven’t really gone far enough yet in my opinion.
Vikings –6.5 Chargers
As stated above, the Vikings have lost me a fan. Still, when they can get a team to quit, they are a good value. There is no team more synonymous with “quit” in the NFL right now than the Chargers. And there is nothing more demoralizing than those all-to-easy Randy Moss 7 point TDs. As long as that gets me a win, I’ll take under 7 points on the Vikings. The Rams used to be that kind of team too, where you just lived on that 7 point number.
Buffalo +4 Dallas
Last week, I wrote about how ill-conceived the Bills play calling was. 4 is kind of a funny number, one I don’t think I’ve seen too much of this year. I like Parcells in any game he figures to outcoach the opposition and he figures to outcoach the opposition here. Good value, good pick, this won’t last long...take it.
Jets –3 Raiders
Gotta love the irony. Just last week, the books are trying to give away the Lions against the Raiders. Now, they’ve come full circle. Giving the Jets +3 is awfully generous here. I’m hot on the Jets but from a value perspective, this is really pushing things a bit. Again, stand back and see where this swings. You might be surprised by Raider $$$.
Rams –7 Ravens
I think one of the big shockers last week was the Rams blowing it against the 49ers. The 49ers/Rams game was a grudge match and those can be rather unpredictable. The line here is solid, but I like the Rams to get back on track. They have a good run defense that should hold Jamal in check. This is a big stepup for the Ravens in competition. I respect the Ravens and think they can play tough and cover, but I have to nod for the Rams to shine again.
Packers –4.5 Eagles
Packers are back on the radar as this line shows. Done well against their schedule except when the Iceman melted in Arizona like Frosty the Snowman when the spring time came. The Eagles are not a serious contender, benefitting from an easy schedule. Their d-line is soft, the running game is committee, and McNabb is being hit too often. This line is low by a full field goal. And personally, I love the ice man on a cold wet sloppy day. The weather will numb his thumb and he’ll have another great day throwing the ball behind solid protection. Better hope Al Harris doesn’t gamble your game away trying to showboat on MNF!
In summary, looks like I'm riding high on the hog with the favorites this week often against some pretty fat lines. After a week where the common man is sweating the surprises last week, maybe that's just the smart way to go. The favorites have been ponying up this season like never before that I can remember and the Cat sees that trend extending another week with the notable exception of Carolina.
DO NOT LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
What happened to the first 11 Woodees? Were they off'ed James Bond style?
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