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COVER STORY
Home dogs will win at least once every five times. Or, in 2003, one week every five weeks. But nothing happened that we haven’t talked about. Going through my post last week, I must have used the word “value” about two dozen times in all the right places. No question there was value on a lot of those games. On some of them, the bookies were just downright begging us, taking OUR spot trying to call the game rather than put out the middling line. If you had the guts to play value on home dogs and downright ugly teams, good for you. After being burnt to a crisp taking limbs on these guys for weeks, I’m sure not many people were willing to. So my officials went down a solid 2 games but I feel pretty good. I steered away from some downright ugly lines. Probably should have posted the Titans but not posted the Browns. Coulda, woulda, shoulda....We knew the Vikings were chumps if you pushed them, but did you know that Randy Moss would turn into a living statue on the 10 yard line? I haven’t heard the explanation for that, and I’m not sure I want to. But amidst all the chaos, did anything REALLY change? I don’t care much about road upsets and that category was certainly “due”. I think the only real shocker was the Giants, and we know they are only live with their backs against the wall. But with Shockey out, he should be predicting wins from his couch to garner some attention very soon. Bottom line is this: value is value. We all know what it means. When you ignore value consistently , you take your chances getting burned.
I feel that turnovers are the most OVERRATED statistic in the media. No, I haven’t choked on my hairballs. The problem is that they are self-fulfilling. Do teams with –5 turnovers lose? Yeah. But how many teams just drop 5 balls on the ground in a game for fun? Many of these turnovers are generated with teams having their backs against the wall just trying to make something happen. If Carolina’s late game quacker gets intercepted, its a turnover and THAT’S why they lost the game. When it was caught, it was a game winning touchdown. Turnovers can be critical, demoralizing, and most importantly – momentum changing. But not because a team threw up the ball to end the first half, or got picked off down 24-10. Context, people, CONTEXT. Someone in the NFL should look at discounting any turnover on the last play of the half, and tell their summer intern to update the numbers from the last 50 years.
NFL Network – I welcome you! No more NFL live being preempted by overtime in the Louisville basketball game. I don’t love everything about it or those fantasy geeks (is there anything much worse than fantasy football advice on TV?) but its nice to have that to flick on and get the latest. Its like Superbowl week all season now. And I truly feel there will be more exposure for the players as individuals, better explanations of things that happened in the games, and more information than ever before and naturally, I’m all for that.
One game I’ll comment on specifically was the Ravens/Rams. First, take note: defenses are live now. We saw a couple games this weekend where the offense could do NOTHING. There will be many more of those in the coming weeks. We are now at a point where some defenses will play well enough to outright dominate their opponent. The Rams seemed as though they wouldn’t do anything given another 100 plays. You’d think Ray Lewis was intercepting the huddle. I heard him comment to teammates to watch the ball, not the players. Maybe just basic advice, but made me wonder if the Rams tend to get off the ball slow? In which case, watching the ball could give you a critical half-step on the pass rush. Did they pick that up from the 49ers? Will the Rams next opponent pick that up too? I have said many times the Kurt Warner story is not over. After Sunday, I suspect it truly is alive and well. But the REAL story of that Sunday night debacle wasn’t the quarterbacking as the media has spun it. No, the Ravens did not lose because Boller got hurt. They lost because their coach handled the game like a complete and total moron. I almost don’t know where to start with Billick. Lets just say Parcells never would have handled a game like that. Like many Rams opponents (from the PAST), he showed tremendous impatience going for it on 4th down in the 2nd quarter and then the 2 pointer also before the half. Remember, Boller was still healthy then. In the 3rd quarter, has absolute refusal to run Lewis with a 1 point lead and their baffling predictability left me numb. Was Lewis hurt? Were they hoping to rest them for the 3rd quarter? How many passing plays do you need to see to know that they are all resulting in negative outcomes? Taking a knee would have done more for the offense, seriously. Had they continued to pound Jamal, the game would have easily been in hand by the start of the 4th quarter. Could they not see their defense had it under control? Baffling. Don’t expect me to recommend the Ravens again this season. They can’t even execute their own philosophy.
Speaking of magnificent stupidity, FAKING THE BLITZ AGAINST THE SKINS? Are you kidding me? C’mon, the NFL is a league where when you have something that works, you ride it until it doesn’t. To get cute with something that simple...is...truly....idiotic. Sometimes the hardest thing about handicapping these games is figuring out which coach is going to suffer a total brain meltdown on any given week. The Skins change of playcalling is an empty media story. The Skins problem is play scheming, NOT play calling. But I like the hype, keep it up.
BACK PAGE
Nice, solid plays this week. Easy choices, more of a question of ranking the picks...
1 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: BUF -7
Line puts the risk on Buffalo, so its pick Texans or skip. A good chance either the Texans are underrated or the Bills are overrated.
2 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers: CAR -6
Sure, Stephen Davis doesn’t care about this game, whatever! Not only is this a good game emotionally, but the line value is absolutely terrific for the Panthers...again!
3 Sun 11/16 10:00 am St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: RAMS -6
With the offense short-circuiting two weeks in a row, the pressure is on the Rams to cover. Bears seem to have enough going to merit the 6 at home.
4 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: KC -6
That guarantee does nothing but wake up the Chiefs for a nice little rout. Hang 6!
5 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns: CLE -6
Again, easy pick. Do you want to play the Cardinals or not? Patriots responded well in the season opener when management cut their player, although the two situations aren’t necessarily comparable.
6 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins: MIA -6
Love the Dolphins. Good value too. Not surprised the Griese experiment bombed – he doesn’t get that offense yet. The Ravens have given up more points than the Dolphins this year.
7 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: NO -8½
Saints are at a curious point between their opening slide and their end-of-season wipeout. Losing coach of this game faces the ax, should be fun. I don’t think there is a team in the NFL I would lay 8.5 points with the Saints.
8 Sun 11/16 10:00 am New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: PHI -3½
Old problems could return to Giants with Shockey gone, but I like the Giants with what I’m assuming is a better defense. Ugly game, skip. Simply better ones on the board this week.
9 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: TEN -10
I wouldn’t mess with the Titans. Old man Taylor isn’t going to lead the way every week. A Titans lean.
10 Sun 11/16 01:05 pm San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos: DEN -8½
Plummer is back and so are the Broncos. A bit of an ugly game given the Flutie factor and Denver’s patchwork defense. Another skip.
11 Sun 11/16 01:05 pm New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: IND -6
Colts –6 is really low! Too much credit to the Jets WAY too fast. Their defense still can’t stop anyone. Am I missing something? This pick seems too easy but I have to push the Colts.
12 Sun 11/16 01:15 pm Minnesota Vikings @ Oakland Raiders: MIN -5
With the Vikings defensive struggles, there is real value on Raiders +5. I wonder if they can get Fargas in gear? He hasn’t looked good in real games yet, but still a talent who could bust out at any time.
13 Sun 11/16 01:15 pm Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: SEA -10½
No way I lay 10.5 on the Hawks!! But you might hold out for 11?
14 Sun 11/16 01:15 pm Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -4
Wow, tough game. I look the upside of the Pack at +4 but you have to be worried about that thumb. Still, Farve did play well in the Metrodome and that’ll probably be the case this week too. I know I'm not going against a special guy playing game #200.
15 Sun 11/16 05:30 pm Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots: PATS -4
A slugfest between two familiar coaches. Bitterness edge probably goes to Pats. I think that –4 line is Vegas being cute, given the Cowboys pushing on the 4 point line last week. I expect a low scoring game (strong hint). Don’t really have a call though, but my gut thinks Pats defense dominates. Squad has more experience in this type of game.
16 Mon 11/17 06:00 pm Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49'ers: SF -4
I’m very disappointed the Steelers drew only 4 points. Should be another 6 line, easy. But my gut says Steelers. I probably won’t play it without a significant line move.
DON’T LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
Home dogs will win at least once every five times. Or, in 2003, one week every five weeks. But nothing happened that we haven’t talked about. Going through my post last week, I must have used the word “value” about two dozen times in all the right places. No question there was value on a lot of those games. On some of them, the bookies were just downright begging us, taking OUR spot trying to call the game rather than put out the middling line. If you had the guts to play value on home dogs and downright ugly teams, good for you. After being burnt to a crisp taking limbs on these guys for weeks, I’m sure not many people were willing to. So my officials went down a solid 2 games but I feel pretty good. I steered away from some downright ugly lines. Probably should have posted the Titans but not posted the Browns. Coulda, woulda, shoulda....We knew the Vikings were chumps if you pushed them, but did you know that Randy Moss would turn into a living statue on the 10 yard line? I haven’t heard the explanation for that, and I’m not sure I want to. But amidst all the chaos, did anything REALLY change? I don’t care much about road upsets and that category was certainly “due”. I think the only real shocker was the Giants, and we know they are only live with their backs against the wall. But with Shockey out, he should be predicting wins from his couch to garner some attention very soon. Bottom line is this: value is value. We all know what it means. When you ignore value consistently , you take your chances getting burned.
I feel that turnovers are the most OVERRATED statistic in the media. No, I haven’t choked on my hairballs. The problem is that they are self-fulfilling. Do teams with –5 turnovers lose? Yeah. But how many teams just drop 5 balls on the ground in a game for fun? Many of these turnovers are generated with teams having their backs against the wall just trying to make something happen. If Carolina’s late game quacker gets intercepted, its a turnover and THAT’S why they lost the game. When it was caught, it was a game winning touchdown. Turnovers can be critical, demoralizing, and most importantly – momentum changing. But not because a team threw up the ball to end the first half, or got picked off down 24-10. Context, people, CONTEXT. Someone in the NFL should look at discounting any turnover on the last play of the half, and tell their summer intern to update the numbers from the last 50 years.
NFL Network – I welcome you! No more NFL live being preempted by overtime in the Louisville basketball game. I don’t love everything about it or those fantasy geeks (is there anything much worse than fantasy football advice on TV?) but its nice to have that to flick on and get the latest. Its like Superbowl week all season now. And I truly feel there will be more exposure for the players as individuals, better explanations of things that happened in the games, and more information than ever before and naturally, I’m all for that.
One game I’ll comment on specifically was the Ravens/Rams. First, take note: defenses are live now. We saw a couple games this weekend where the offense could do NOTHING. There will be many more of those in the coming weeks. We are now at a point where some defenses will play well enough to outright dominate their opponent. The Rams seemed as though they wouldn’t do anything given another 100 plays. You’d think Ray Lewis was intercepting the huddle. I heard him comment to teammates to watch the ball, not the players. Maybe just basic advice, but made me wonder if the Rams tend to get off the ball slow? In which case, watching the ball could give you a critical half-step on the pass rush. Did they pick that up from the 49ers? Will the Rams next opponent pick that up too? I have said many times the Kurt Warner story is not over. After Sunday, I suspect it truly is alive and well. But the REAL story of that Sunday night debacle wasn’t the quarterbacking as the media has spun it. No, the Ravens did not lose because Boller got hurt. They lost because their coach handled the game like a complete and total moron. I almost don’t know where to start with Billick. Lets just say Parcells never would have handled a game like that. Like many Rams opponents (from the PAST), he showed tremendous impatience going for it on 4th down in the 2nd quarter and then the 2 pointer also before the half. Remember, Boller was still healthy then. In the 3rd quarter, has absolute refusal to run Lewis with a 1 point lead and their baffling predictability left me numb. Was Lewis hurt? Were they hoping to rest them for the 3rd quarter? How many passing plays do you need to see to know that they are all resulting in negative outcomes? Taking a knee would have done more for the offense, seriously. Had they continued to pound Jamal, the game would have easily been in hand by the start of the 4th quarter. Could they not see their defense had it under control? Baffling. Don’t expect me to recommend the Ravens again this season. They can’t even execute their own philosophy.
Speaking of magnificent stupidity, FAKING THE BLITZ AGAINST THE SKINS? Are you kidding me? C’mon, the NFL is a league where when you have something that works, you ride it until it doesn’t. To get cute with something that simple...is...truly....idiotic. Sometimes the hardest thing about handicapping these games is figuring out which coach is going to suffer a total brain meltdown on any given week. The Skins change of playcalling is an empty media story. The Skins problem is play scheming, NOT play calling. But I like the hype, keep it up.
BACK PAGE
Nice, solid plays this week. Easy choices, more of a question of ranking the picks...
1 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: BUF -7
Line puts the risk on Buffalo, so its pick Texans or skip. A good chance either the Texans are underrated or the Bills are overrated.
2 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers: CAR -6
Sure, Stephen Davis doesn’t care about this game, whatever! Not only is this a good game emotionally, but the line value is absolutely terrific for the Panthers...again!
3 Sun 11/16 10:00 am St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: RAMS -6
With the offense short-circuiting two weeks in a row, the pressure is on the Rams to cover. Bears seem to have enough going to merit the 6 at home.
4 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: KC -6
That guarantee does nothing but wake up the Chiefs for a nice little rout. Hang 6!
5 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns: CLE -6
Again, easy pick. Do you want to play the Cardinals or not? Patriots responded well in the season opener when management cut their player, although the two situations aren’t necessarily comparable.
6 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins: MIA -6
Love the Dolphins. Good value too. Not surprised the Griese experiment bombed – he doesn’t get that offense yet. The Ravens have given up more points than the Dolphins this year.
7 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: NO -8½
Saints are at a curious point between their opening slide and their end-of-season wipeout. Losing coach of this game faces the ax, should be fun. I don’t think there is a team in the NFL I would lay 8.5 points with the Saints.
8 Sun 11/16 10:00 am New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles: PHI -3½
Old problems could return to Giants with Shockey gone, but I like the Giants with what I’m assuming is a better defense. Ugly game, skip. Simply better ones on the board this week.
9 Sun 11/16 10:00 am Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: TEN -10
I wouldn’t mess with the Titans. Old man Taylor isn’t going to lead the way every week. A Titans lean.
10 Sun 11/16 01:05 pm San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos: DEN -8½
Plummer is back and so are the Broncos. A bit of an ugly game given the Flutie factor and Denver’s patchwork defense. Another skip.
11 Sun 11/16 01:05 pm New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: IND -6
Colts –6 is really low! Too much credit to the Jets WAY too fast. Their defense still can’t stop anyone. Am I missing something? This pick seems too easy but I have to push the Colts.
12 Sun 11/16 01:15 pm Minnesota Vikings @ Oakland Raiders: MIN -5
With the Vikings defensive struggles, there is real value on Raiders +5. I wonder if they can get Fargas in gear? He hasn’t looked good in real games yet, but still a talent who could bust out at any time.
13 Sun 11/16 01:15 pm Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks: SEA -10½
No way I lay 10.5 on the Hawks!! But you might hold out for 11?
14 Sun 11/16 01:15 pm Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB -4
Wow, tough game. I look the upside of the Pack at +4 but you have to be worried about that thumb. Still, Farve did play well in the Metrodome and that’ll probably be the case this week too. I know I'm not going against a special guy playing game #200.
15 Sun 11/16 05:30 pm Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots: PATS -4
A slugfest between two familiar coaches. Bitterness edge probably goes to Pats. I think that –4 line is Vegas being cute, given the Cowboys pushing on the 4 point line last week. I expect a low scoring game (strong hint). Don’t really have a call though, but my gut thinks Pats defense dominates. Squad has more experience in this type of game.
16 Mon 11/17 06:00 pm Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49'ers: SF -4
I’m very disappointed the Steelers drew only 4 points. Should be another 6 line, easy. But my gut says Steelers. I probably won’t play it without a significant line move.
DON’T LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
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