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It’s been an exciting week and it has had nothing to do with the NFL playoffs. Joe Gibbs is a Redskin while Bill Parcells is a Cowboy? Maybe Gibbs can finally get a win over Parcells, who had his number in the days of yore. Either way, the return of Gibbs will bring back that R-E-S-P-E-C-T he instilled in the organization in the first place. As someone from that area originally, it is about the most joyous thing I have ever heard in sports. $10 says Thursday Sept. 9 features Skins vs. Cowboys.
Meanwhile, Pete Rose confessed. Despite years of protesting profusely, it turns out Pete was actually lying! And Clinton really DID have sexual relations with that woman...whatever her name is. But I dunno, my instincts still tell me that when OJ says he didn’t do it, he didn’t do it. Lying like that? Well, that just wouldn’t be right.
Now how the hell am I gonna top last week, when I said with opportunistic pass defenses, one of these QBs might get picked off and blow the game? I’ve mentioned Al Harris before, largely because with his gambling addiction he’s probably one of my more avid readers. But that time he was on the right side of the gamble so good for that dude! Man is he a scrawny one. And, as I thought, Manning came out like a bat out of hell but what I didn’t expect is the Broncos D not to make it out of the tunnel. It was one hell of a Vikings imitation though, wasn’t it? (How ironic is it that Denny Green went to Arizona, the team that knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs?)
All the home teams are going to win, but if one doesn’t...smart money is the Titans. The team that dunnit before on the road is the most likely to dunnit again. Truth is, all of us bettors are going to spend a lot of time and energy trying to figure out which one is going to blow it, but the real focus should be on the fact that NONE of the road teams are all that likely to win. We might chalk up one upset, and one cover. Its probably that one cover that should scare you. As far as value goes, I think EVERY one of these teams should be at least 7 point favorites, if not 10. So truthfully, this is a rare time where the value says “go long”.
But lets speculate, okay? Still talking from my perch, I expect the teams that did the best last week to do the worst this week. So I’m looking for either Carolina or the Colts to fall on their ass. That puts the smart coin on the destiny-driven Packers and the Titans.
Carolina will do well if they hold in this game through the first 7 minutes. Honestly, if it is still tied 7 minutes into this game, they should be doing cartwheels. If they are within 10, I might be impressed. Carolina failed to step up for THREE STRAIGHT WEEKS late in the season. Their big victories early in the season came against opponents who proved unimpressive for the rest of the season anyway. Stephen Davis himself has an atrocious record against quality teams. Delhomme plays poorly in a dome. The Carolina pass rush may harass the Rams quick releasing QB, but the Rams defense shouldn’t have trouble keeping the scores out of the endzone should that happen. So overall, no, I’m not impressed with the Panthers chances. And I’d set this line at –10 personally.
McNair can’t possibly play as badly as he did last week. Steady Eddie surged to a mighty 3.5 a pop, but the bigger surprise was another dude who rolled up yardage on the Ravens. I think there is a big tendency to underestimate the Patriots. Are they this years version of the 12-4 bears? Maybe. But this is a team that has been there before and shouldn’t be discounted lightly. While the Titans might be the smart play as to who might legitimately pull an upset, they aren’t a terribly safe play. But if its a passing war rather than a running war, we could be in for quite a show. Lets just hope the Titans don’t play their version of the dropsies like the Seahawks did last week. (Have the Hawks fired the wide receiver coach yet? Do they even have one?)
Packers Ahman Green destroyed the Eagles in a previous meeting, one that reversed fortunes with an inspired McNabb comeback. In that game, injured Brian Westbrook made no impact whatsoever so obviously the Eagles don’t NEED him for this game. He would have been a nice ‘plus’ though. The Eagles have to be feeling the pressure, with Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells breathing down their neck in the division. The future is now and they may play with a renewed sense of urgency. However, the Eagles at home haven’t been terribly impressive and they may have a soft home field advantage, particularly against a Pack team that is equally effective in the cold weather. This game could swing either way, and swing by a huge margin either way once the ball gets rolling.
Finally, the Chiefs only picked up 3 points. Here is yet another team that really had to fight for motivation in the 2nd half of the NFL season. The thing I hate most about them is KC seems to be one of those stadiums that has been haunted with postseason disappointment. Still, their aggressive style of offense as mirrored by other teams has generally done very well in this situation, and Vermeil is already on record as saying they have no intention of backing off. As well as Manning played last week, the Colts defense may not be significantly less leaky than that Broncos team last week and he might be punted out just like Plummer. In the running game, I’ll take Priest Holmes who probably won’t play for very many years of James, who ran hard last week but is a guy who’s heart I still question based on 2002. To have a chance, the Colts will have to come from behind in this game. In the playoffs on the road, that’s a damn tall order. The Chiefs can do in the Colts using the Seabiscuit strategy. Take the lead, let the Colts catch up, look them in the eye, and show them that they have more heart as they blow by them in the 4th leg.
DON’T LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!
Meanwhile, Pete Rose confessed. Despite years of protesting profusely, it turns out Pete was actually lying! And Clinton really DID have sexual relations with that woman...whatever her name is. But I dunno, my instincts still tell me that when OJ says he didn’t do it, he didn’t do it. Lying like that? Well, that just wouldn’t be right.
Now how the hell am I gonna top last week, when I said with opportunistic pass defenses, one of these QBs might get picked off and blow the game? I’ve mentioned Al Harris before, largely because with his gambling addiction he’s probably one of my more avid readers. But that time he was on the right side of the gamble so good for that dude! Man is he a scrawny one. And, as I thought, Manning came out like a bat out of hell but what I didn’t expect is the Broncos D not to make it out of the tunnel. It was one hell of a Vikings imitation though, wasn’t it? (How ironic is it that Denny Green went to Arizona, the team that knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs?)
All the home teams are going to win, but if one doesn’t...smart money is the Titans. The team that dunnit before on the road is the most likely to dunnit again. Truth is, all of us bettors are going to spend a lot of time and energy trying to figure out which one is going to blow it, but the real focus should be on the fact that NONE of the road teams are all that likely to win. We might chalk up one upset, and one cover. Its probably that one cover that should scare you. As far as value goes, I think EVERY one of these teams should be at least 7 point favorites, if not 10. So truthfully, this is a rare time where the value says “go long”.
But lets speculate, okay? Still talking from my perch, I expect the teams that did the best last week to do the worst this week. So I’m looking for either Carolina or the Colts to fall on their ass. That puts the smart coin on the destiny-driven Packers and the Titans.
Carolina will do well if they hold in this game through the first 7 minutes. Honestly, if it is still tied 7 minutes into this game, they should be doing cartwheels. If they are within 10, I might be impressed. Carolina failed to step up for THREE STRAIGHT WEEKS late in the season. Their big victories early in the season came against opponents who proved unimpressive for the rest of the season anyway. Stephen Davis himself has an atrocious record against quality teams. Delhomme plays poorly in a dome. The Carolina pass rush may harass the Rams quick releasing QB, but the Rams defense shouldn’t have trouble keeping the scores out of the endzone should that happen. So overall, no, I’m not impressed with the Panthers chances. And I’d set this line at –10 personally.
McNair can’t possibly play as badly as he did last week. Steady Eddie surged to a mighty 3.5 a pop, but the bigger surprise was another dude who rolled up yardage on the Ravens. I think there is a big tendency to underestimate the Patriots. Are they this years version of the 12-4 bears? Maybe. But this is a team that has been there before and shouldn’t be discounted lightly. While the Titans might be the smart play as to who might legitimately pull an upset, they aren’t a terribly safe play. But if its a passing war rather than a running war, we could be in for quite a show. Lets just hope the Titans don’t play their version of the dropsies like the Seahawks did last week. (Have the Hawks fired the wide receiver coach yet? Do they even have one?)
Packers Ahman Green destroyed the Eagles in a previous meeting, one that reversed fortunes with an inspired McNabb comeback. In that game, injured Brian Westbrook made no impact whatsoever so obviously the Eagles don’t NEED him for this game. He would have been a nice ‘plus’ though. The Eagles have to be feeling the pressure, with Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells breathing down their neck in the division. The future is now and they may play with a renewed sense of urgency. However, the Eagles at home haven’t been terribly impressive and they may have a soft home field advantage, particularly against a Pack team that is equally effective in the cold weather. This game could swing either way, and swing by a huge margin either way once the ball gets rolling.
Finally, the Chiefs only picked up 3 points. Here is yet another team that really had to fight for motivation in the 2nd half of the NFL season. The thing I hate most about them is KC seems to be one of those stadiums that has been haunted with postseason disappointment. Still, their aggressive style of offense as mirrored by other teams has generally done very well in this situation, and Vermeil is already on record as saying they have no intention of backing off. As well as Manning played last week, the Colts defense may not be significantly less leaky than that Broncos team last week and he might be punted out just like Plummer. In the running game, I’ll take Priest Holmes who probably won’t play for very many years of James, who ran hard last week but is a guy who’s heart I still question based on 2002. To have a chance, the Colts will have to come from behind in this game. In the playoffs on the road, that’s a damn tall order. The Chiefs can do in the Colts using the Seabiscuit strategy. Take the lead, let the Colts catch up, look them in the eye, and show them that they have more heart as they blow by them in the 4th leg.
DON’T LET THE BLACK CAT CROSS Y-O-U-R PATH!