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LT's SportsBeat
By Guido Carapellucci
LT Profits Sports
Wednesday, January 7, 2003
FADING WILD CARD WINNERS IN DIVISIONAL ROUND
The Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs has been completed, so we decided to research how all winners of this round have fared in the Divisional Playoffs since 1995. Well, the results are not pretty!
Teams that advance out of the Wild Card Round are only 12-23-1, 34.3% ATS in the next round since 1995! Teams that won their wild card game on the road have had it especially tough, going just 2-6, 25.0% ATS in the next round, with only the 1996 Jaguars and the 1995 Colts bucking this trend. The last 5 teams that won their wild card game on the road have ALL failed to cover the spread in the Divisional Playoffs, which does not bode well for Tennessee this week.
Here is a breakdown of how the First Round winners have fared in the second round ATS for each playoff year:
WILD CARD ROUND WINNERS IN NEXT GAME
1995: 1-3
1996: 2-2
1997: 1-3
1998: 2-2
1999: 1-3
2000: 2-2
2001: 1-3
2002: 1-2-1
2003: 1-3
Total: 12-23-1, 34.3% ATS
What is interesting about this is that NOT IN ANY YEAR since 1995 have the Wild Card winners had a winning record ATS in the Second Round! What this means is that if you just blindly faded these teams in the next round, the WORST you would have done in any season is just lose the vigorish, which seems like a small price to pay for an angle that is hitting at 65.7% over 9 seasons.
For those of you that wish to play this system blindly, the play this week would be on all 4 home teams. Remember though that this is just another approach of handicapping these games, and that after further review, we could very well be on a couple of road teams if we see some value. But for the purposes of this system, the plays are:
St. Louis -7
New England -6
Kansas City -3
Philadelphia -5 ½
You should probably pay special attention to New England, since Tennessee is the only team to advance this season that played on the road, a 75.0% GO-AGAINST angle.
By Guido Carapellucci
LT Profits Sports
Wednesday, January 7, 2003
FADING WILD CARD WINNERS IN DIVISIONAL ROUND
The Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs has been completed, so we decided to research how all winners of this round have fared in the Divisional Playoffs since 1995. Well, the results are not pretty!
Teams that advance out of the Wild Card Round are only 12-23-1, 34.3% ATS in the next round since 1995! Teams that won their wild card game on the road have had it especially tough, going just 2-6, 25.0% ATS in the next round, with only the 1996 Jaguars and the 1995 Colts bucking this trend. The last 5 teams that won their wild card game on the road have ALL failed to cover the spread in the Divisional Playoffs, which does not bode well for Tennessee this week.
Here is a breakdown of how the First Round winners have fared in the second round ATS for each playoff year:
WILD CARD ROUND WINNERS IN NEXT GAME
1995: 1-3
1996: 2-2
1997: 1-3
1998: 2-2
1999: 1-3
2000: 2-2
2001: 1-3
2002: 1-2-1
2003: 1-3
Total: 12-23-1, 34.3% ATS
What is interesting about this is that NOT IN ANY YEAR since 1995 have the Wild Card winners had a winning record ATS in the Second Round! What this means is that if you just blindly faded these teams in the next round, the WORST you would have done in any season is just lose the vigorish, which seems like a small price to pay for an angle that is hitting at 65.7% over 9 seasons.
For those of you that wish to play this system blindly, the play this week would be on all 4 home teams. Remember though that this is just another approach of handicapping these games, and that after further review, we could very well be on a couple of road teams if we see some value. But for the purposes of this system, the plays are:
St. Louis -7
New England -6
Kansas City -3
Philadelphia -5 ½
You should probably pay special attention to New England, since Tennessee is the only team to advance this season that played on the road, a 75.0% GO-AGAINST angle.
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