Detroit at Baltimore NFL Preseason

[InsiderEdge]

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens 8:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens –3.5 -110 (2 Units)

We like Baltimore to bounce back after their loss to the Eagles on the road last weekend. Facing a Detroit team that cannot win on the road makes things a little easier. For the last three seasons, the Lions have been the worst road team in NFL history. They’ve lost every game for three years 24 straight. And that is just the regular season. The Lions’ last victory away from home was against the Jets in their final road game of 2000. They have also lost 6 straight on the road during preseason.

Offensively, the Lions are starting to come around, compared to last season at least. They still aren’t a team to be afraid of and they are young, so it will be hard for them to break through the tough defense of the Ravens. It’s been the defense has been suspect. Pittsburgh and Cleveland gained yards in chunks, particularly on the ground, when their regulars were playing. The defense is more worrisome for Coach Steve Mariucci. Injuries have been a factor. Three linebackers who were counted on for playing time, Boss Bailey, James Davis and rookie Alex Lewis, are injured. Only Davis has played in the exhibition season, and he went out in the Cleveland game because of a sprained right ankle. Health aside, the concerns for the Lions have to be the lack of an outside pass rush and the way Pittsburgh and Cleveland were able to run. Unless something changes, the Lions’ offense will have to carry the team.

Kyle Boller is still inconsistent as his completion percentage has not been that great. Generally, though, the second-year quarterback has drawn decent reviews from the coaching staff as he tries to improve his fundamentals and mechanics. "He has progressed very well," Ravens coach Brian Billick said. "The thing that I am most encouraged about is the way that Kyle has handled difficult situations. Whether it is someone running a wrong route or a protection breakdown, his fundamentals in the pocket have been very good.” Going against a Detroit defense that will have trouble getting any sort of rush at him will keep him relaxed and in the pocket. That is where he does his best work. Backup Kordell Stewart isn’t showing much either as his number are pretty gaudy but he has led two touchdown drives in his seven possessions, a statistic that reaffirms Billick's faith in him. "He's had a scoring drive every time he's been in there," Billick said. "He's made some big plays. I don't know that he's struggled any more than anybody else."

The number is bigger than we would like with an average Baltimore offense, but based on past experiences, it shouldn’t be a problem. When Baltimore wins in the preseason they tend to cover and vice versa for the Lions. Baltimore is 12-0-1 ATS under Billick when they win straight up and 18-1-1 ATS dating back to 1995. Meanwhile, Detroit is 1-29 ATS in games they lose, showing that when they lose, it isn’t close.

[InsiderEdge]

Easy winner. We start the College Football season out with a total that was never in doubt.

USC Trojans vs. Virginia Tech Hokies 7:45 PM ET

Under 48 USC/Virginia Tech –110 (2 Units)

The 2004 season kicks off with what looks to be a lopsided matchup, at least on paper. USC is coming off a National Championship season while the Hokies will look to rebound from yet another late season swoon. Both teams will be forced to replace a lot of talent, especially on the offensive sides of the ball. As far as returning players, both are returning 11 players in total from last season and both rank rather low in our experience index. Since offense takes longer to find the groove with new personnel, the defenses on both sides should have an edge.

The Trojans passing attack will not be the same as last season, at least early on. QB Matt Leinart will certainly miss Mike Williams and Keary Colbert and it might take some time to locate new go to targets. Of the returning receivers, there is no one who had more than 17 receptions last season. Injuries aren’t helping matters either. Junior Justin Wyatt, who is listed as a starting cornerback, played receiver for the first half of practice and could be used on offense because William Buchanon has a hyper-extended knee. Leinart is nursing tendonitis in his elbow while backup Josh Booty has an injured forearm. Leinart has not participated fully is passing drills so don’t expect sharp efforts on Saturday since he has been bothered with this since spring practice. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow plans to make up for his dearth of receivers by taking advantage of his talent at tailback and tight end. Short passes mean completions, which means clock movement. The Trojans are loaded with TBs, going four and five deep but the OL is another story, enough such that it is USC's biggest question mark heading into this August battle. That OL is a sieve, not good when the QB can't run or hide. They are very young and while they may be big, the experience factor hurts. On defense for Virginia Tech, the secondary looks strong. Jimmy Williams and Eric Green can both play either the ball or the developing play just as well, as both are proven tacklers. The rest of the safeties, along with the nickel- and dime-package guys, are capable and eager to fly around in head coach Frank Beamers' creative schemes. The front line was a disaster last year but should show improvement, especially here against a young OL.

Cedric Humes fractured his left fibula in spring practice and is now in rehab for a few months. He will play, but how effective he will be is too hard to predict. Mike Imoh is the backup but he is out for the first 3 games because of suspension. There isn’t much left after that which isn’t good. They will need to establish some sort of running game for the offense to have any sort of success. We don’t see it happening. USC finished as the nation's top run defense in 2003 on their way to a National Championship, giving up a stingy 60 yards per game. In USC's last five games of 2003, opponents averaged 29 yards rushing. Only once in the past 25 games has USC allowed a back to gain 100 yards. Senior QB Bryan Randall has the mechanics, feet and accuracy to deliver, but this has not been proven against the tougher Hokie opponents. Virginia Tech could never muster a consistent deep threat in '03, and that fact gets multiplied with the loss of their top receiver, NFL-bound Ernest Wilford. The Trojans ranked 110th in pass defense last season mostly due to the pass happy teams in their conference. A more telling stat is the fact that they ranked 26th in pass efficiency defense, a much more accurate guide. Depth is a concern at safety and while the corners will be new, they are experienced. Starting off with the Hokies is a good beginning since there aren’t any weapons that should hurt them.

Special teams and turnovers may lead to points but that should be the only thing that will hurt us here. Virginia Tech won’t have enough on offense to score much while the powerful Trojans will be limited in their passing attack and should play pretty conservative because of injuries and lack of experience. The defenses are both good enough to dictate this one and a low scoring affair is in order.

[natty]

Good job. Nice write-ups as well.

Natty